UFC on FX 3...Big Play

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Brenneman put on the full court press but Silva weathered the storm for the finish

[Beelzebubzy]

congrats peavy

[dww123]

Man I let that Luca Fury talk me out of Silva. Oh well.

[zoo youk]

fuk yea!! I missed it but just saw the tap out replay! thanks my dude!

[GunShard]

Congrats to all the Silva bettors. I also won on Silva.

Silva's takedown defense for the win!

[Imsmarterthanu]

Silva can do a backflip off the cage i think he can manage to get a hairy skinny jewish guy off of him

Your prophet has spoken

[Crassus]

Man I let that Luca Fury talk me out of Silva. Oh well.

Don't do that. That's low, and immature.

[dww123]

Don't do that. That's low, and immature.

yeah well he is arrogant and talks down to people.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

thanks guys, I must admit that Luca and the rest had me second guessing myself and the points they were making were valid...Silva is just on another level than Charlie

[Crassus]

yeah well he is arrogant and talks down to people.

Yeah he did, and he looks like a right ass at the moment for being THAT wrong (as in Erick beating Charlie on the ground and subbing him) but don't blame him for not being confident enough in your own picks.

[dww123]

Yeah he did, and he looks like a right ass at the moment for being THAT wrong (as in Erick beating Charlie on the ground and subbing him) but don't blame him for not being confident enough in your own picks.

Good Point

[MMAbetMASTA]

Yeah he did, and he looks like a right ass at the moment for being THAT wrong (as in Erick beating Charlie on the ground and subbing him) but don't blame him for not being confident enough in your own picks.

agree no one to blame but yourself... but this Luca guy also called Korean zombie the most overrated fighter in the ufc lol... and yes he does seem to talk down to others, but I'll give it to him that he has sound mma knowledge and clearly knows his shit. IMO Nick Kalikas should get V or JC to do the podcast though, they way more credible imo and I like how they document every single play and cent they put up..

Where do you post your actual bet amounts and plays Luca, or does anyone know?

[NunyaBidness]

yeah well he is arrogant and talks down to people.

So, you're so easily swayed that someone who is arrogant and talks down to people can change your mind?

[Luca Fury]

yeah well he is arrogant and talks down to people.

How was I talking down to anyone? LOL! All I did was point people to the last fight where Silva fought past 1 minute, and mentioned how bad he looked. He showed tremendous improvement and a 2-1 underdog lost, big deal. I didn't bash anyone for picking or betting silva, all I said was that I was picking Charlie and stated why.

No one is going to be right 100% of the time. If you can't deal with other people not being right EVERY SINGLE time, don't blindly tail other people.

Geez...

On a related note, at least I still made a profit overall on my other underdog bets like Wineland.

[Luca Fury]

agree no one to blame but yourself... but this Luca guy also called Korean zombie the most overrated fighter in the ufc lol... and yes he does seem to talk down to others, but I'll give it to him that he has sound mma knowledge and clearly knows his shit. IMO Nick Kalikas should get V or JC to do the podcast though, they way more credible imo and I like how they document every single play and cent they put up..

Where do you post your actual bet amounts and plays Luca, or does anyone know?

I don't post exact amounts because it's not necessary. Saying I'm big, medium or small on a play is all that matters. I like to keep some level of privacy. Gambling is still a sketchy area in the US, especially with taxes and stuff.

And I love how every is all nice to me, but then I get a bet wrong and you all start jumping on my back, LOL! Yeah, i got the Zombie and Brenneman picks wrong, but guess what? I still made a profit on both of those cards. And on the UFC 146 and TUF Finale cards in between.

And my pick record on underdogs since the podcast started a month ago is 9-4. That's almost 60% accuracy just on guys who were at PLUS money. Most people don't even have 60% including favorites. 9-4 on underdogs results in a very nice profit. That's including guys like Erik Perez, Martin Kampmann and Eddie Wineland, who no one else was on.

So if you're going to bash me for TWO picks I got wrong, how about to bring up the others that I got right? Tell the full story, not a biased one.

[Luca Fury]

Pretty funny how just because you have an opinion about something and share it, you're automatically "arrogant" and "talk down to people" if it turns out to be wrong.

I would like to see someone post an example from this thread where I was being arrogant or talking down to someone about Silva/Brenneman....

[Crassus]

Pretty funny how just because you have an opinion about something and share it, you're automatically "arrogant" and "talk down to people" if it turns out to be wrong.

I would like to see someone post an example from this thread where I was being arrogant or talking down to someone about Silva/Brenneman....

I think it was more you so believed in Brenneman AND how confident you were in your pick. Props to that, but it seemed (at least to me) you were unwilling to hear anyones opinion and that you'd made up your mind. Confidence in your picks is key, I firmly believe that, but unwillingness to appreciate the other side (at least appearing to) and you come off as really arrogant.

Rereading it, basically anyone saying that Silva had the ground game and TDD to compete with Brenneman and it seemed like you basically dismissed them and tried to make them seem stupid for having that opinion which, after being shown that Silva did have those tools, people instantly jumped on you.

[NunyaBidness]

I don't post exact amounts because it's not necessary. Saying I'm big, medium or small on a play is all that matters. I like to keep some level of privacy. Gambling is still a sketchy area in the US, especially with taxes and stuff.

You're not claiming to be a professional gambler and not paying all your taxes are you? That would be dirty, dirty. And not very smart, since you've posted your real name and picture, and the IRS pays 20% commissions to anyone who turns in a tax cheat.

[DirtyX]

I don't post exact amounts because it's not necessary. Saying I'm big, medium or small on a play is all that matters. I like to keep some level of privacy. Gambling is still a sketchy area in the US, especially with taxes and stuff.

And I love how every is all nice to me, but then I get a bet wrong and you all start jumping on my back, LOL! Yeah, i got the Zombie and Brenneman picks wrong, but guess what? I still made a profit on both of those cards. And on the UFC 146 and TUF Finale cards in between.

And my pick record on underdogs since the podcast started a month ago is 9-4. That's almost 60% accuracy just on guys who were at PLUS money. Most people don't even have 60% including favorites. 9-4 on underdogs results in a very nice profit. That's including guys like Erik Perez, Martin Kampmann and Eddie Wineland, who no one else was on.

So if you're going to bash me for TWO picks I got wrong, how about to bring up the others that I got right? Tell the full story, not a biased one.

I honestly don't think anyone is bashing you man, well atleast I am not. I thought your call was pretty spot one, but Charlie fell into a bad position early. I mean, Benneman was wrestling f__king him for a moment there. I was just banking on the fact that Silva is a rising star with superior skills at such a young age. i.e. - Michael McDonald, Bronx Olivera. Youth is a big factor imo.

[gabe]

You're not claiming to be a professional gambler and not paying all your taxes are you? That would be dirty, dirty. And not very smart, since you've posted your real name and picture, and the IRS pays 20% commissions to anyone who turns in a tax cheat.

lol i love you, man.

[Luca Fury]

I think it was more you so believed in Brenneman AND how confident you were in your pick. Props to that, but it seemed (at least to me) you were unwilling to hear anyones opinion and that you'd made up your mind. Confidence in your picks is key, I firmly believe that, but unwillingness to appreciate the other side (at least appearing to) and you come off as really arrogant.

Rereading it, basically anyone saying that Silva had the ground game and TDD to compete with Brenneman and it seemed like you basically dismissed them and tried to make them seem stupid for having that opinion which, after being shown that Silva did have those tools, people instantly jumped on you.

I has said that it is certainly possible for Silva to show massive improvement, just that I favored Charlie based on what we know about both. I also said Erik had a great chance at winning, and that he could definitely get the finish in the first round. I wasn't confident in Charlie at all, and never said I was, but I did say I favored him and liked him at +170.

And just because I had confidence in my picks, doesn't mean I'm arrogant. Why would I bother spending hours on research, just to disregard everything I saw because someone else said had a different opinion? Is in now taboo to have a different opinion and stand by it? I don't tail other people, I do my research, make picks/bets, and it's worked out well for me. Sure, sometimes I'm wrong, but why bother putting in the research time if I'm not going use what I saw to make a pick?

Everyone was telling me I was crazy for picking Wineland, too, yet the high went like I said it would and I cashed on him at +200 and by TKO at +450. Everyone was telling me Scott would take him down and control him, but like the Brenneman pick, I stuck with my own opinion. If I would have just agreed with what everyone else was telling me and bet Jorgenson, it would have been a steep, -220 loss.

Same as when Eddie Alvarez foguth Shinya Aoki. EVERYONE on Sherdog was telling me I was an idiot for betting Eddie there, but I did the research and had faith in my own view. If I would have just been like " don't know what I'm talking about, but these people who I don't, who may or may not be good at analyzing fights say I'm wrong. I guess I better blindly tail them," I would have missed out.

I respect the opinions of others, but stick to my own because I know what research I did and what I saw. Some of the people picking Silva in this thread admitted they hadn't even seen any of his fights outside of the UFC. Yeah, they got the pick right, but 9/10 putting in study and research will prevail. I gotta stick to my own opinion.

[Luca Fury]

You're not claiming to be a professional gambler and not paying all your taxes are you? That would be dirty, dirty. And not very smart, since you've posted your real name and picture, and the IRS pays 20% commissions to anyone who turns in a tax cheat.

This is why I said keeping a level of privacy is nice. Whether you turn in all your winnings, or have an off-shore account, the less info people know the better.

[NunyaBidness]

This is why I said keeping a level of privacy is nice. Whether you turn in all your winnings, or have an off-shore account, the less info people know the better.

It is possible to have off-shore accounts and claim all your winnings. Not to mention, the IRS requires an FBAR filled out for foreign accounts over 10k. You can fill yours out here: http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/f90221.pdf

[MMAbetMASTA]

I don't post exact amounts because it's not necessary. Saying I'm big, medium or small on a play is all that matters. I like to keep some level of privacy. Gambling is still a sketchy area in the US, especially with taxes and stuff.

And I love how every is all nice to me, but then I get a bet wrong and you all start jumping on my back, LOL! Yeah, i got the Zombie and Brenneman picks wrong, but guess what? I still made a profit on both of those cards. And on the UFC 146 and TUF Finale cards in between.

And my pick record on underdogs since the podcast started a month ago is 9-4. That's almost 60% accuracy just on guys who were at PLUS money. Most people don't even have 60% including favorites. 9-4 on underdogs results in a very nice profit. That's including guys like Erik Perez, Martin Kampmann and Eddie Wineland, who no one else was on.

So if you're going to bash me for TWO picks I got wrong, how about to bring up the others that I got right? Tell the full story, not a biased one.

not bashing you man didn't mean to come off arrogant which I did so my bad...

I also thought charlie was gonna win and posted the exact same things you were saying well before you even posted in this thread so its not like you're the only one who was wrong in this one...

Its just my opinion of what I notcied from the few posts I've seen from you and my opinion of your tone, you seem pretty new here, so don't take it personal its just my initial thoughts, like I said I think you know you're shit and you're obviously solid. I said V and JC are more credible because imo they are, they post all their plays, amounts, etc before the fights which imo gives you the upmost credibility on this site and mma gambling in general. Not saying you're not credible, just my opinion as to what I know here and proven records I know here.

And really, and this goes out to everyone out there and I'm sure I'll get much disagreement and whatnot, but you get zero crediblity imo coming on here after the fights claiming you won x amount of money / large profits or made x bets when you never posted them in the first place. Its one thing to say "I like so and so inside the distance at +200 or I got so and so for the upset at +300 or big on so and so at -180" but another thing to actually put your money where your mouth is and post your bets with amounts. Anyone can look good calling bets / picks, but when you're talking about raking in profit I think the way to establish credibility and legitimacy in making a profit claim is to post your shit. I know you have posted plays and amounts before (at least I read somewhere someone talking about an exact play of yours), so I'm not singling you out with this, its for everyone reading.

For instance, I picked most of my bets correct tonight (including two dogs) with the exception of papazian at -155 and charlie... If I just 'picked' these bets and never posted my amounts I could easily come on here and claim I won great profit considering I picked almost all correct...but in reality papazian was a somewhat large bet for me and it canceled out the great profit I owuld have made from the other picks that won (only came up 160 tonight when had papazian came through it prob would have been 700).. Just my opinion and i'm sure some people agree with what I'm saying (especially those that post their plays and amounts before the fights)... I feel you with the taxes and stuff but I don't really buy that I think authorities have bigger fish to fry but I could be wrong..

Its not like its a secret or you gotta hide your plays either - I'm sure many people are already thinking the same thing you are and thinking about the same picks...for the record I was on both perez and wineland well before your podcast / posts (as were many), so no need to generalize - which sounded arrogant.

Cheers.

[Crassus]

I has said that it is certainly possible for Silva to show massive improvement, just that I favored Charlie based on what we know about both. I also said Erik had a great chance at winning, and that he could definitely get the finish in the first round. I wasn't confident in Charlie at all, and never said I was, but I did say I favored him and liked him at +170.

And just because I had confidence in my picks, doesn't mean I'm arrogant. Why would I bother spending hours on research, just to disregard everything I saw because someone else said had a different opinion? Is in now taboo to have a different opinion and stand by it? I don't tail other people, I do my research, make picks/bets, and it's worked out well for me. Sure, sometimes I'm wrong, but why bother putting in the research time if I'm not going use what I saw to make a pick?

Everyone was telling me I was crazy for picking Wineland, too, yet the high went like I said it would and I cashed on him at +200 and by TKO at +450. Everyone was telling me Scott would take him down and control him, but like the Brenneman pick, I stuck with my own opinion. If I would have just agreed with what everyone else was telling me and bet Jorgenson, it would have been a steep, -220 loss.

Same as when Eddie Alvarez foguth Shinya Aoki. EVERYONE on Sherdog was telling me I was an idiot for betting Eddie there, but I did the research and had faith in my own view. If I would have just been like " don't know what I'm talking about, but these people who I don't, who may or may not be good at analyzing fights say I'm wrong. I guess I better blindly tail them," I would have missed out.

I respect the opinions of others, but stick to my own because I know what research I did and what I saw. Some of the people picking Silva in this thread admitted they hadn't even seen any of his fights outside of the UFC. Yeah, they got the pick right, but 9/10 putting in study and research will prevail. I gotta stick to my own opinion.

You're proving my point man. That's great that you have confidence in your picks and that you did well on tonight, power to you. BUT like I said you appeared to come in, give your opinion and then discount and minimize anyone else' opinions on the matter. Maybe you meant to, maybe you didn't but that's how it appeared to me and clearly some others. You should have confidence in your research but you shouldn't come in to this without an open mind and a willingness to listen which you didn't really display here and that comes off as extreme arrogance and you talking down to people/

[Luca Fury]

You're proving my point man. That's great that you have confidence in your picks and that you did well on tonight, power to you. BUT like I said you appeared to come in, give your opinion and then discount and minimize anyone else' opinions on the matter. Maybe you meant to, maybe you didn't but that's how it appeared to me and clearly some others. You should have confidence in your research but you shouldn't come in to this without an open mind and a willingness to listen which you didn't really display here and that comes off as extreme arrogance and you talking down to people/

Well, sorry if it came across that way. I felt like I was just giving my opinion. Didn't mean to discredit others, but I do have my own opinions and stick to them.

It's funny that before the fight, everyone was saying stuff like "good point" and "thanks for the info" in response to what I was saying. But now that the pick was wrong, that's suddenly changed to "you're so so arrogant."

[Imsmarterthanu]

lol at the drama in this thread

hindsight is always 20/20

[fosho14]

whaaaaat. What the f is up with you guys berating this guy. I have no idea why everyone is accusing Luca of arrogance. It is not arrogant or disrespectful to disagree with someones opinion, which is all he was doing! What's even more ridiculous is the fact that he brought up hard evidence and proof from previous fights of silva fading late and displaying weak TDD, and mentioned that the main reason he was playing him was a combination of those variables plus the great value in brenneman (pretty fair logical assessment). I'm genuinely confused how this is interpreted as being arrogant. It is up to us to take in this information and make our own judgement as to whether we think a bet on silva is worth it based on the risks rather than simply tail. At the end of the day were talking about betting mma and there's always going to be a considerable amount of risk involved otherwise everyone would be rich. In this case it wasn't enough to deter me out of my silva ITD play but then again there have been other times where I've disagreed with Luca's opinion and bet against his pick and suffered the consequences of being wrong myself as well.

I watch a lot of tape and do a lot of research, and yet after listening to Luca's podcast and breakdowns it is clear that he's still on another level when it comes to hours spent on analysis and studying video. Almost makes me wonder if he does this full time as his primary income because I have no idea how anyone could spend that much time dissecting every fighters nuances and tendencies dating back years ago; there's so many fighters and so much tape! I haven't come across anyone who legitimately watches more tape than this guy, or has better analysis and insight. Definitely a major asset to this forum, especially with all these losers and trolls who have flooded in lately who like wasting their lives mindlessly talking sh**t to each other instead of discussing anything relevant to predicting fights. Be happy you actually have someone who does his homework, I certainly am.

[Vaughany]

You're not claiming to be a professional gambler and not paying all your taxes are you? That would be dirty, dirty. And not very smart, since you've posted your real name and picture, and the IRS pays 20% commissions to anyone who turns in a tax cheat.

haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

[Vaughany]

lol i love you, man.

There u go Gabe...20% commission if u still need a quick buck to pay off those Russian bookies!

[Vaughany]

I has said that it is certainly possible for Silva to show massive improvement, just that I favored Charlie based on what we know about both. I also said Erik had a great chance at winning, and that he could definitely get the finish in the first round. I wasn't confident in Charlie at all, and never said I was, but I did say I favored him and liked him at +170.

And just because I had confidence in my picks, doesn't mean I'm arrogant. Why would I bother spending hours on research, just to disregard everything I saw because someone else said had a different opinion? Is in now taboo to have a different opinion and stand by it? I don't tail other people, I do my research, make picks/bets, and it's worked out well for me. Sure, sometimes I'm wrong, but why bother putting in the research time if I'm not going use what I saw to make a pick?

Everyone was telling me I was crazy for picking Wineland, too, yet the high went like I said it would and I cashed on him at +200 and by TKO at +450. Everyone was telling me Scott would take him down and control him, but like the Brenneman pick, I stuck with my own opinion. If I would have just agreed with what everyone else was telling me and bet Jorgenson, it would have been a steep, -220 loss.

Same as when Eddie Alvarez foguth Shinya Aoki. EVERYONE on Sherdog was telling me I was an idiot for betting Eddie there, but I did the research and had faith in my own view. If I would have just been like " don't know what I'm talking about, but these people who I don't, who may or may not be good at analyzing fights say I'm wrong. I guess I better blindly tail them," I would have missed out.

I respect the opinions of others, but stick to my own because I know what research I did and what I saw. Some of the people picking Silva in this thread admitted they hadn't even seen any of his fights outside of the UFC. Yeah, they got the pick right, but 9/10 putting in study and research will prevail. I gotta stick to my own opinion.

lol one thing I am sure about is to never listen to 99% of sherdog!

[Luca Fury]

whaaaaat. What the f is up with you guys berating this guy. I have no idea why everyone is accusing Luca of arrogance. It is not arrogant or disrespectful to disagree with someones opinion, which is all he was doing! What's even more ridiculous is the fact that he brought up hard evidence and proof from previous fights of silva fading late and displaying weak TDD, and mentioned that the main reason he was playing him was a combination of those variables plus the great value in brenneman (pretty fair logical assessment). I'm genuinely confused how this is interpreted as being arrogant. It is up to us to take in this information and make our own judgement as to whether we think a bet on silva is worth it based on the risks rather than simply tail. At the end of the day were talking about betting mma and there's always going to be a considerable amount of risk involved otherwise everyone would be rich. In this case it wasn't enough to deter me out of my silva ITD play but then again there have been other times where I've disagreed with Luca's opinion and bet against his pick and suffered the consequences of being wrong myself as well.

I watch a lot of tape and do a lot of research, and yet after listening to Luca's podcast and breakdowns it is clear that he's still on another level when it comes to hours spent on analysis and studying video. Almost makes me wonder if he does this full time as his primary income because I have no idea how anyone could spend that much time dissecting every fighters nuances and tendencies dating back years ago; there's so many fighters and so much tape! I haven't come across anyone who legitimately watches more tape than this guy, or has better analysis and insight. Definitely a major asset to this forum, especially with all these losers and trolls who have flooded in lately who like wasting their lives mindlessly talking sh**t to each other instead of discussing anything relevant to predicting fights. Be happy you actually have someone who does his homework, I certainly am.

Thanks for the support. This is my perspective too. I don't understand how simply giving my pick and stating the reasons is being "arrogant."

And as for you wondering about me doing this full time, the answer is yes. I do the podcast and write an article for MMAOddsBreaker like once a week, but that obviously doesn't bring in much money per month. I just do it on the side because I do all the research and stuff anyway since I make my living off gambling. It's nice to not have to work a real job, but life gets pretty boring at times. At least I have a lot of time to dedicate to research. I spend at least a couple hours a day, whether there is a card imminent or not, doing tape study/research. It gets to be quite time consuming, although less so than a real job.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Luca Fury is the Jon Jones of MMA betting. He's young, comes off as smug to many & he's a prodigy at what he does.

I think he's misunderstood/misrepresented when he's debating the merits of two fighters. Luca & I have had our well publicized feuds in the past which originally stemmed from a similar debate of a young up & coming superstar versus a veteran wrestler although Luca took the position of the -500 young superstar in our debate (we wasted a lot of time & energy arguing whether Rashad would have anything at all for Jon Jones or not). I think from Luca's perspective it seems you need to earn respect with him not just be given it because you're an MMA bettor and you have an opinion; he sounds very respectful on the Oddscast with his buddy Nick Kalikas but that's not always the case chatting with one of the thousands of twitter/SBR/Sherdog MMA fans or bettors. And, truth be told, chances are that you don't know MMA betting nearly as well as Luca. I don't think Luca is trying to disrespect the person he's debating with (although it can come off as such sometimes) but he seems so set in his analysis/picks that there's little you can say that he will concede once his mind is made up.

I liken arguing with Luca to fighting against Nick Diaz. When you're debating a point, he'll just walk you down into a corner, start throwing out facts that keep punching you in the face and then when you try to throw back a counter point, he laughs, raises his hands and says "WHAT!" and then proceeds to keep punching you in the face with facts until you're TKOed.

I've learned that the best way to counter the phenom Luca Fury is to circle out and run like Carlos Condit and hope that the judges on SBR award you points for your stylistic merit. Either that or train with him so you don't have to fight him anymore.

[PunisherIND]

Luca Fury is the Jon Jones of MMA betting. He's young, comes off as smug to many & he's a prodigy at what he does.

I liken arguing with Luca to fighting against Nick Diaz. When you're debating a point, he'll just walk you down into a corner, start throwing out facts that keep punching you in the face and then when you try to throw back a counter point, he laughs, raises his hands and says "WHAT!" and then proceeds to keep punching you in the face with facts until you're TKOed.

Is he jon jones or nick diaz?? stop waffling and pick one.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Is he jon jones or nick diaz?? stop waffling and pick one.