Frank Mir +320?

**PunisherIND** · 03-08-12, 10:09 PM

Originally posted by Lick496

Seriously?

i thinks its about right. i capped it at +300.

**Lick496** · 03-08-12, 10:14 PM

That really suprises me. I dont think Mir should be that big a dog against anyone.

**Vitooch** · 03-08-12, 10:14 PM

It's a little high in my opinion.

**Beelzebubzy** · 03-08-12, 10:22 PM

Originally posted by Lick496

That really suprises me. I dont think Mir should be that big a dog against anyone.

Bad Stylistic Matchup for him. Mirs chin is fading and he cant outwrestle or outstrike Cain. Mir has shown a weakness to wrestlers. I think there is some value in Mir here if he can keep it standing.

I will play, fight doesnt go distance

**PunisherIND** · 03-08-12, 10:27 PM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

Bad Stylistic Matchup for him. Mirs chin is fading and he cant outwrestle or outstrike Cain. Mir has shown a weakness to wrestlers. I think there is some value in Mir here if he can keep it standing.

I will play, fight doesnt go distance

ill probably play cain TKO, but i can see myself playing fight doesnt go distance also. no way this goes 3 rounds.

**gabe** · 03-09-12, 12:32 AM

If Mir can sub Nog, he can sub Cain. No doubt.

**Vitooch** · 03-09-12, 01:12 AM

Originally posted by gabe

If Mir can sub Nog, he can sub Cain. No doubt.

I agree with you gabe. The only thing I'm worried about is Cain's relentless GnP. We saw what happened when a wrestler overwhelmed Mir with GnP. Mir is a serious submission threat on top and off his back, more so than any other HW in the world, possibly P4P in MMA, and not many HWs can stifle his submission game when he grabs a hold of you. I don't see why one wouldn't take a shot, especially at these odds.

**gabe** · 03-09-12, 01:30 AM

I wouldn't bet Cain straight, but I'd throw him in parlays. Mir might be worth a shot, but I probably won't play it.

I think JDS beats Overeem and Cain beats Mir and we get to see a real fight 'tween JDS and Cain. Or perhaps another quick one.

**Vitooch** · 03-09-12, 02:14 AM

Would love to see Cain fight the winner of Strikeforce HW grand prix. Don't think one win is enough to warrant another title shot. He should atleast have to get by someone like Carwin atleast

**DSSCA** · 03-09-12, 02:31 AM

First off, I really enjoy reading the posts in this forum, you guys are way better cappers than I am, and it's nice to learn a few things! I do feel like I have some decent insight being that I have been into (organized)mma since it's birth in '93 and have met and trained with a lot of these guys. I'm just here to give my $0.02 and learn some stuff. In no way do I think I'm a great capper or math genius or system building champion, lol. But I have been right a few more times than not

Mir is in no way a dog by THAT much. His chin has never been his strong suit but neither has Cain's, considering JDS KOed him in 64 seconds. Mir and Cain are not even in the same damn sport when it comes to a SOLID BJJ BB in Mir and an accomplished wrestler in Cain. Mir has been looking better and better on his feet. KOing Nog and then taking his arm home with him in their second meeting. Mir won a majority decision over a very dangerous (a little old

) BJJ BB with decent tdd in Roy Nelson. He has really only had trouble, not with just wrestlers, but MASSIVE MAMMOTH MEN in Brock and Shane. Cain is a smaller HW but still very strong and agile. Tough to hit a moving target, but it can be done effectively with good timing. Something Mir is getting better at. His conditioning will be tested for sure in this fight if Cain is smart. Nobody in the HW division can keep up with Cain in a 5rd fight. His conditioning is the standard. Can Cain stay on the outside and outstrike Mir EFFECTIVELY? If he kicks, Mir will take him down and that is no bueno para Senor Velasquez. I think Cain CAN win this fight if he executes his game plan perfectly, but with these odds I give it to Mir in a "public eye upset."

Thoughts?

**gabe** · 03-09-12, 02:32 AM

Cain vs Mir is a #1 contender match

**DSSCA** · 03-09-12, 02:34 AM

Also excited for Silva vs. Nelson!

**gabe** · 03-09-12, 02:35 AM

It's a 3 round fight, not 5... I think unless Mir catches Cain with a submission or lucky KO, he is bound to get knocked out or lose a decision. His best chance is to catch a submission on the ground within the first couple rounds. I think he will be dead tired by the 3rd and will probably be put away.

**DSSCA** · 03-09-12, 02:40 AM

Originally posted by gabe

It's a 3 round fight, not 5...

My apologies, 3 it is

No excuses.

I guess reality would set in and we may see a very tired Mir with his mouth open and a big bullseye on it... Bang. All she wrote. BUT! We shall see

**gabe** · 03-09-12, 02:59 AM

Yeah, Mir gassed out 2 mins into the fight with Nog. He got tired as hell, which allowed Nog to rock him early on.

I don't like his chances against Cain. His best shot is to put it on early and catch Cain.

**Vitooch** · 03-09-12, 03:46 AM

Something didn't seem right with Mir in that fight. Yes, he got the submission but he didn't seem like the crisp, fresh fighter that stopped Nog the first time, finished Kongo, and dominated Nelson. Did anyone notice how it seemed like Mir was out cold at one point after Nog rocked him, his face flat against the canvas, and Rogan even pointed it out? Strange, just strange.

**eligibletackle** · 03-09-12, 03:56 AM

Originally posted by gabe

If Mir can sub Nog, he can sub Cain. No doubt.

Did you need the Nog rematch to know that a top submission specialist at his weight class can tap someone w/o the BJJ credentials? Impressive win for Mir no doubt, but doesn't change the complexion of the fight.

Don't see why Cain will treat this fight differently than the Nog fight and keep it on the standing. On the feet I think Cain has every advantage w/ the exception of size, and Mir isn't nearly as strong as his size suggest whereas you could argue it's the opposite w/ Cain. Mir's TDs aren't that good and Cain is too quick to let Mir use the big body on him for any wall 'n stall or clinch->toss. If this hits the 2nd or 3rd the cardio discrepancy should come into play big time.

IMO, any bet on Mir should be an inside the distance prop. This is just a horrific matchup for Mir.

**omalley21** · 03-09-12, 04:14 AM

Not to be disrespectful but anyone who picks mir here is flat out clueless. Very upset Nick opened odds on this one, could've got much better odds on cain.

**gabe** · 03-09-12, 05:18 AM

Originally posted by Vitooch

Something didn't seem right with Mir in that fight. Yes, he got the submission but he didn't seem like the crisp, fresh fighter that stopped Nog the first time, finished Kongo, and dominated Nelson. Did anyone notice how it seemed like Mir was out cold at one point after Nog rocked him, his face flat against the canvas, and Rogan even pointed it out? Strange, just strange.

yeah, i thought i had my bet on mir lost for a moment there... he looked so slow and tired after about a minute... rogan even commented that he looks dry, doesn't look like he warmed up

**sirchadwick1** · 03-09-12, 07:39 AM

Line looks right to me and Cain is probably hungry to get his belt back. If I can get Mir ITD at a good +500 or so though I'll take it. He's not winning a decision, but he can give anyone at HW trouble with his jitz.

**Beelzebubzy** · 03-09-12, 09:11 AM

I actually believe Mir has a great chin. He took alot of shots from Carwin and was still looking for a Kimura, plus, the Brock Beatdowns.

**Lick496** · 03-09-12, 11:40 PM

Originally posted by sirchadwick1

Line looks right to me and Cain is probably hungry to get his belt back. If I can get Mir ITD at a good +500 or so though I'll take it. He's not winning a decision, but he can give anyone at HW trouble with his jitz.

I agree. Mir Inside the distance will definitely be my bet if it is any decent price.

**Marv001** · 03-13-12, 07:05 AM

It's best to lay off this fight. I agree that cv will prob GNP Mir to a tko. But line too high to take cv.

**sirchadwick1** · 03-13-12, 09:41 AM

Maybe Cain KOTN + Mir ITD or Mir SOTN?

**Digo** · 03-13-12, 11:27 AM

My really doubt is: which Frank Mir we will see in the cage? that Frank Mir of the first fight against Nog, lighter, faster and with good cardio or this currently one, bigger, slower and without cardio... I think Cain's striking is a little overrated (that lighter Frank Mir could beat him in a stand up fighting). I will wait to bet;
In case of lighter Frank Mir: My bets will be Cain and Fight not goes to the distance.
In case of that heavy one: Cain by decision or tko/ko.

**PunisherIND** · 03-13-12, 11:28 AM

Originally posted by sirchadwick1

Maybe Cain KOTN + Mir ITD or Mir SOTN?

mir sotn would be a great hedge.

cain kotn might be worth a play if the odds are good, but i would think that award goes to jds/reem winner.

**sirchadwick1** · 03-13-12, 11:43 AM

Ah you're right..... JDS is going to get that KOTN award. Overlooked that.

I'd just play Cain straight up then and roll w/ Mir SOTN as a hedge. Seriously can't see him winning any other way. Cain has a solid chin.

**GunShard** · 03-13-12, 12:37 PM

He's the most winning UFC fighter of all time I think.

**Educ8d Degener8** · 03-13-12, 12:56 PM

Originally posted by GunShard

He's the most winning UFC fighter of all time I think.

Mir? He's got 14 UFC Wins... Matt Hughes has 20, GSP has 17, Randy's got 16, Tito's got 15... couple other guys may be close or above Murr as well.

**v1y** · 03-13-12, 01:57 PM

at heavyweight maybe

**fosho14** · 03-13-12, 03:26 PM

Unfortunately for us the odds are pretty accurate. I don't see how cain loses this fight. An inside the distance prop is something to look into.

**Digo** · 03-14-12, 11:25 AM

Originally posted by fosho14

Unfortunately for us the odds are pretty accurate. I don't see how cain loses this fight. An inside the distance prop is something to look into.

Mir's a very unpredictable fighter, I bet no one imagined that he could knockdown Kongo too. I agree that Velasquez is the deal for this one, but fight inside the distance should be a very good backup.

**caveira** · 03-14-12, 04:35 PM

Inside the distance is my bet for this fight.

**The Fobfather** · 03-14-12, 08:39 PM

Do you guys think it will be a stand up battle with Cain wanting to avoid going to the ground with Mir unless Mir is rocked?