if i can grab palhares by sub at evens im happy. fan of both guys, but palhares submission threat is huge at this point. But, its not like he submitted dan miller. If belcher can avoid getting submitted in the first round, he has a very good chance to win this fight.
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This is either gonna be Lavar by KO or Barry by Sub.
That said, I could see it going the distance.Comment -
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I cant see Barry submitting Johnson, how do people see him doing it? Not like he's gonna take Johnson down then pass guard and latch on an armbar or something! He could guillotine Johnson but unlikely seeing as Lavar will have no interest in looking for the takedown, and Lavar will be much tallerComment -
I agree. I think it's possible Barry gets the TKO from Lavar gassing but I still think Barry will look/be given the sub on the ground rather than the TKO. This could be a gas fest with both guys limping to the finish line, especially Lavar (see Barry-Beltran). Barry at -110 or so for TKO is too pricey.
A Barry sub at the opener was the best value play especially because I think he wants to cut that godawful hair.Comment -
Lavar has never been T/KOed. WEC9 doesn't count. He was kicked in the ground 4 times and couldn't answer the bell.
Barry's wrestling and sub game is improving but it's still very green and not a viable gameplan vs Lavar as opposed to SDR or Jordan.
So how does Barry win this?
KO? Highly unlikely
Lavar gasses/dropped? Pretty much a coin flip of whether Barry can TKO him on the ground (when has Barry ever really shown this either???) or look/be handed the sub (which Lavar gladly taps to even when it's not fully sunk in, see SDR armbar).
A decision is also pretty unlikely given how gassed Lavar has looked in every fight by round two.
A sub is a lot more likely than 8% or so. I just can't trust Barry to fight intelligently so I didn't go heavy on the prop.
The UFC on FOX 3 card is filled with chimps that are hard to bet a lot on IMOLast edited by Wanna Bet On It?; 04-29-12, 03:46 PM.Comment -
i dont know how good belcher is to scramble back up, but man, palhares lifted dan miller up like he was a feather. i think youre right about palhares might take this to a decision if he cant submit belcher.Comment -
agree with all of this...
I thought people were joking with all the barry by sub talk but now I realize they're serious....
Can't see barry by sub either... I see barry winning by tko / ref stoppage on a gassed lavar... that or a sloppy, sloppy UD for barry similar to the beltran win. Def wouldn't rule out lavar ko'ing barry either. This is a no play for me at this point, there should be better bets on the undercard, got my eye on a few and hoping to get some nice lines better than the crap ones that are out on the main card!!! hard match ups to call and tough lines thus far!!
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I feel like this is going to play a big part in the event. Almerida being a hometown judge and I feel that his experiences as a fighter may warp the way he judges fights. I remember that during the Held vs. Nover fight in Bellator he ended up giving the fight to Held based on a bunch of weak sub attempts. Major robberyComment -
I'm playing Lavar Johnson, but I'm a bit nervous after rewatching the Beltran fight. Johnson definitely kept his hands down quite a bit in that fight. Either way, I see him really looking to close the distance and rough Barry up on the inside.
Actually, that wasn't him. I made the same mistake. http://mmadecisions.com/decision.jsp?id=3208 He didn't judge that fight because he had trained with Nover before.Comment -
O hai guise ive bin researching this one cuz I'm getting ready to POUND it for 200 sbr points. O sry I'm an idiot who was wrong all along. Oopsie.
Why don't you keep your MISINFORMATION to yourself? Oh wait cause your a pimple faced little shit whose balls dropped on09-07-11 the day you joined this fuking forum.
I mean, who cares if your info is correct or not when betting with fake points.Comment -
Barry in an interview with Ariel said he would not cut his hair until he gets a UFC win by sub...not sure if anyone has mentioned that.
Barry has really been dedicating his training to grappling. Wonderboy should take notice.Comment -
Perhaps he wasnt talking about the hair on his headComment -
Barry by dec is my degen play. Leg KicksComment -
I thought he was allowed to cut the sides. Not really sure what happened.Comment -
last fox card the lines moved alot. what lines yall think will make major moves by fight time?Comment -
The top??? Not the sides but the top???!!!
NOOOO.
This was the impetus to my psychological prop play on Barry by Sub because he said he's a man of his word but I figured he'd be sick of the high school look by now and there's no better HW to sub than worst-sub-defense ever Lavar (besides fighting his pre-Moorecraft clone HA!).
Why'd you have to burst my Barry bubble Vdog?!
Seriously though, thanks. If you recall where the video can be found, I'd appreciate it.
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haha I'll have a look for it! Im sure he did say tht he'd jus shaved the sides but it looked like he had less on top as well to me..maybe im wrong! Might of been Helwani interview come to think of itComment -
haha looks like he has grown it!...
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Thank you sir. Wonderboy should dedicate the next few years just to BJJ, the way Kos dedicated all those years to his standup. Thompson does not have the body frame to be a truly effective wrestler. With those long and dexterous arms for legs, Wonderboy could have one badass guard and overall Jiu-Jitsu game. Hopefully Brown knocked some sense in to him.Comment -
This is my thinking as well, that Barry should kick the living piss out of Lavars legs... but it's Pat Barry... though his grappling (well, at least his sub defense did look markedly improved in his last outing, so if his offensive submission game has developed at the same pace, who the f*ck knows, maybe he can snag a sub here -- especially if he drops Lavar with a strike).
And BJPenn85, if you were impressed with Palhares' slam of Miller, check out his toss of Hendo. Toquinho is fairly adept at utilizing his hulk ruhtard strength into unconventional tosses and slams.Comment -
So far for the UFC on FOX 3 event:
6 units on Koscheck @ -120 to win 5 units (bad odds, went in early and misjudged movement)
2 units on Hendricks by KO/TKO @ +465 to win 9.3 units
10 units on Miller @ -200 to win 5 units
7.5 units on Belcher @ +240 to win 18 units (Might hedge with Palhares in Rd 1)
5 units on Lavar Johnson @ 170/181 to win 8.83 units
Also got 5 units on Alexander Dimitrenko @ +260 (ridiculous odds for Pulev IMO) for boxing this weekend.Comment -
I think people are too high on Barry's technique. He gets hit a lot. I wouldn't be paying the juice on him. Anything can happen in a heavyweight fight, and Lavar is a very durable HW. Only question mark there is the cardio, he needs to clinch Barry as soon as he can.
Also think people are drinking too much green coolade with regard to Palhares. Everyone's under-estimating Belcher's legit chance of a TKO or decision victory.
Miller/Diaz is probably going to be closer than the odds reflect, but I still think Miller will pull out the win.
The Kos/Hendricks fight is a bit of a toss-up but I feel if it does go the distance it'll be Kos with his hand raised. (The Story/Hendricks fight is how I see this one playing out) Kos has been focussing on wrestling more this camp. He's not going to stand with Hendricks after watching Fitch go down in 12 seconds.
I'll also be playing Garza at dog odds closer to fight time, and have a couple Bellator plays lined up aswell for fridayComment -
Anyone see value in Michael Johnson @ +220? Ferguson should be the favourite but surely this is underestimating his chances? I hate paying more than about -180 on a TUF fighter hahaha. Even one as good as FergyComment -
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Horrible MMA picks imo.
.10 units on Miller @ -200. - He should be at -150 at the most. (Diaz is dangerous, especially in a five rounder)
.Belcher is going to get tooled by Palhares.
.Hendricks is live, Kos at -120 is too expensive. Five units on a coin flip.
.Johnson and Barry is also a coin flip, with a slight edge to Barry. I think johnson can win, but man, there are better and more solid fights this weekend to throw five units on, such as Liniker or Cholish.
Good luck !
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