what gabe says.

[Hannibal]

so i have this question
i got rousey at -201. Now i'm having second thoughts about her ability to win and im thinking about arbing out, maybe with ronda on the soft side.

Nunya.. you said that i should never do this because i would be losing value. I'm pretty sure -201 will beat the closing line...so i should keep my play even if im uncertain that rousey should be winning at those odds?

[Giblets]

so i have this question i got rousey at -201. Now i'm having second thoughts about her ability to win and im thinking about arbing out, maybe with ronda on the soft side. Nunya.. you said that i should never do this because i would be losing value. I'm pretty sure -201 will beat the closing line...so i should keep my play even if im uncertain that rousey should be winning at those odds?

If you don't think Rousey has a better than 66% chance of winning then you should definitely arb out. The closing line could be -800 but keeping a bet riding on -200 wouldn't be smart if you thought she had a less than 66% chance of winning.

[Giblets]

You're only losing value if you think she should be at -250 or lower but you arb out of a -200 bet just to take a small profit.

[NunyaBidness]

so i have this question
i got rousey at -201. Now i'm having second thoughts about her ability to win and im thinking about arbing out, maybe with ronda on the soft side.

Nunya.. you said that i should never do this because i would be losing value. I'm pretty sure -201 will beat the closing line...so i should keep my play even if im uncertain that rousey should be winning at those odds?

I didn't say you should never arb, I said that people who constantly arb are throwing away value.

If you look in my thread you'll see I had Nick Diaz at -105, and arbed out with Condit at +190. I capped the fight at Diaz -125ish, and thought Diaz had value then, but Condit had more value when the line moved.

I've also said in the past here that beating the closing line in MMA wasn't as important as in other sports, but agreed with (sideloaded I think) that if you were beating the closing line with regularity you should be a winner longterm.

Changing your mind or responding to new information is perfectly reasonable.

[NunyaBidness]

Also, it's a pretty simple problem, calculate the value of the arb, if its greater than your perceived edge of the current bet you would obviously take the arb. If you think your -201 has negative value then obviously its an easy arb.

[omalley21]

Take the free money. Rousey's unproven.

[Vaughany]

so i have this question
i got rousey at -201. Now i'm having second thoughts about her ability to win and im thinking about arbing out, maybe with ronda on the soft side.

Nunya.. you said that i should never do this because i would be losing value. I'm pretty sure -201 will beat the closing line...so i should keep my play even if im uncertain that rousey should be winning at those odds?

Exactly as Giblets explained.

[Vaughany]

Take the free money. Rousey's unproven.

Although Im generalising, I do kind of think that women's MMA is like the UFC 10 years ago, you only need to be at a high level in one skill set to dominate.

[gabe]

You're an idiot. I come to GABE's thread because he usually has good incite and good picks. This forum is filled with this garbage dick measuring bullshit lately. I dont even know why I responded to this. You are just another example.

I knew there were people who looked forward to my plays. Figured they'd be guys who just read and don't post.

In any case, thanks -- and yeah, this forum is filled with a lot of garbage... I can't seem to turn a corner without getting hated on. I gotta watch out for every sentence I say, knowing V is reviewing my every word as if it's gospel.

[tino1317]

I knew there were people who looked forward to my plays. Figured they'd be guys who just read and don't post.

In any case, thanks -- and yeah, this forum is filled with a lot of garbage... I can't seem to turn a corner without getting hated on. I gotta watch out for every sentence I say, knowing V is reviewing my every word as if it's gospel.

Meh. Just try not to get drawn into the senseless arguments as much. You have some great multi sport parlays. I dont know as much about basketball and tennis so its good to have a fresh perspective.

[H1Cypher]

Gabe do you keep an official record of your picks? If yes, what is it I'm wondering.

[omalley21]

Although Im generalising, I do kind of think that women's MMA is like the UFC 10 years ago, you only need to be at a high level in one skill set to dominate.

You've also said (and I agree) no girl should really be that big a favorite over another girl. (Excluding Cyborg)

[Vaughany]

You've also said (and I agree) no girl should really be that big a favorite over another girl. (Excluding Cyborg)

ha I did, but tht was before Rousey came along!

[Beelzebubzy]

uh oh

I see another 6 page argument coming along

[sideloaded]

ha I did, but tht was before Rousey came along!

Rousey is pretty much all hype. She choked in the Olympics and no one seems to care. She lost to a golden point to a girl she destroyed in worlds. She then quit the sport. Ok she arm barred a bunch of nobodies? Julia Budd is a fitness model who took a couple of cardio kicking boxing classes and thought she could fight mma. Tate is a serious grappler. Won a silver medal at the fila worlds in 2008 and has been in there with the best.

Right now Rousey is more of a favorite over a champion then Jon Jones was against Shogun. And Shogun was coming in after surgery. And her striking is horrid.

[Vaughany]

You may well turn out to be right

[gabe]

Gabe do you keep an official record of your picks? If yes, what is it I'm wondering.

Ended last MLB season with 279-105
Season before that, 71%
Season before that, 76%

Ended last NBA season at 73%
Currently at 62-18 for this season.

Finished the NFL season with 144-41

105-46 in UFC since UFC 126 w/ 10-7 picking main events but a perfect 34-0 on my biggest plays.

I haven't been keeping an official tennis record, but if I had to guess, so far this year I'm something like 110-30. Been hitting so many parlays.

Just woke up to this cashing:

Tennis - 4551 Caroline Wozniacki -210 for Match
Tennis - 4553 Jelena Jankovic +2½ -109 for Match
Tennis - 4555 Agnieszka Radwanska -220 for Match
Tennis - 4750 Vera Dushevina -240 for Match
$65 to win $314.11

[gabe]

just made:

Tennis - 4238 Ryan Sweeting +3½ -106 for Match
Tennis - 4240 Kevin Anderson -205 for Match
Tennis - 4244 Milos Raonic -650 for Match
Tennis - 4842 Eva Birnerova +111 for Match
Tennis - 4846 Yaroslava Shvedova -250 for Match
$20 to win $177.10

[PunisherIND]

Ended last MLB season with 279-105
Season before that, 71%
Season before that, 76%

Ended last NBA season at 73%
Currently at 62-18 for this season.

Finished the NFL season with 144-41

105-46 in UFC since UFC 126 w/ 10-7 picking main events but a perfect 34-0 on my biggest plays.

I haven't been keeping an official tennis record, but if I had to guess, so far this year I'm something like 110-30. Been hitting so many parlays.

Just woke up to this cashing:

Tennis - 4551 Caroline Wozniacki -210 for Match
Tennis - 4553 Jelena Jankovic +2½ -109 for Match
Tennis - 4555 Agnieszka Radwanska -220 for Match
Tennis - 4750 Vera Dushevina -240 for Match
$65 to win $314.11

gabe, the mlb, nfl, nba bets -- im assuming those are moneyline bets?

[gabe]

gabe, the mlb, nfl, nba bets -- im assuming those are moneyline bets?

probably half ML and half spreads

[NunyaBidness]

Ended last MLB season with 279-105
Season before that, 71%
Season before that, 76%

Ended last NBA season at 73%
Currently at 62-18 for this season.

Finished the NFL season with 144-41

105-46 in UFC since UFC 126 w/ 10-7 picking main events but a perfect 34-0 on my biggest plays.

I haven't been keeping an official tennis record, but if I had to guess, so far this year I'm something like 110-30. Been hitting so many parlays.

Just woke up to this cashing:

Tennis - 4551 Caroline Wozniacki -210 for Match
Tennis - 4553 Jelena Jankovic +2½ -109 for Match
Tennis - 4555 Agnieszka Radwanska -220 for Match
Tennis - 4750 Vera Dushevina -240 for Match
$65 to win $314.11

[illmatick]

[Vaughany]

[omalley21]

Rousey said on Rogans podcast that she got screwed in olympics but I will definitely play Tate at the long odds.

[gabe]

Are you using the screencaps I've shown you where I won hundreds of dollars as your example??? what a joke.

I make $20 parlays, but not straight plays. You've never seen me make a $20 bet on a play. Quit pulling BS out your ass. Oh wait, last week was V, this week is your turn, right?

V supposedly does really well, yet he still makes the tinyest bets... how come you aren't poking fun at your boyfriend for that???

[Vaughany]

Are you using the screencaps I've shown you where I won hundreds of dollars as your example??? what a joke.

I make $20 parlays, but not straight plays. You've never seen me make a $20 bet on a play. Quit pulling BS out your ass. Oh wait, last week was V, this week is your turn, right?

V supposedly does really well, yet he still makes the tinyest bets... how come you aren't poking fun at your boyfriend for that???

He made fun of me yesterday about arbing actually! Your turn today

[sideloaded]

Rousey said on Rogans podcast that she got screwed in olympics but I will definitely play Tate at the long odds.

I just uploaded the video to youtube, you can decide

[NunyaBidness]

Are you using the screencaps I've shown you where I won hundreds of dollars as your example???

[H1Cypher]

just made:

Tennis - 4238 Ryan Sweeting +3½ -106 for Match
Tennis - 4240 Kevin Anderson -205 for Match
Tennis - 4244 Milos Raonic -650 for Match
Tennis - 4842 Eva Birnerova +111 for Match
Tennis - 4846 Yaroslava Shvedova -250 for Match
$20 to win $177.10

You should start a tennis thread

[Vaughany]

Rousey is pretty much all hype. She choked in the Olympics and no one seems to care. She lost to a golden point to a girl she destroyed in worlds. She then quit the sport. Ok she arm barred a bunch of nobodies? Julia Budd is a fitness model who took a couple of cardio kicking boxing classes and thought she could fight mma. Tate is a serious grappler. Won a silver medal at the fila worlds in 2008 and has been in there with the best.

Right now Rousey is more of a favorite over a champion then Jon Jones was against Shogun. And Shogun was coming in after surgery. And her striking is horrid.

Official Ronda Rousey Blog Part 2 | “My Pampered Life?”



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By ‘Rowdy’ Ronda Rousey:

I read recently on Miesha’s blog that she thinks that she has the heart of a champion because in her first MMA bout was getting punched till she got a bloody nose, was losing a match and then came back to win.

She then stated that I’ve been pampered and protected for my whole career.

Let me give you a little insight into my pampered upbringing.

I remember my first injury very well. I was 11 years old and I broke my big toe doing judo. To an 11 year old this is a very big deal, so I stopped fighting and started to cry. My mother then made me run laps around the mat for the rest for the night. I thought she was just being cruel at the time but she told me “Sometimes you have to fight when you’re injured. You need to know you’re capable of that”.

A few years later I was 15 and broke 3 bones in my foot (jumping over a fence, during my first and only attempt to try and ditch class) That weekend my mom sent me up to northern California to fight in two divisions in a tournament that was hosted by the club of one of my biggest rivals at the time. I was sent with no coach and injured, fought eight matches in front of a bias crowd that were cheering against me. When I asked my mom why she would do something so mean she said “You won’t always have a coach, the crowd won’t always like you, and you won’t always be healthy when you fight. You need to know you can win anyway.”

A few months later I got my face smashed into the mat and cauliflower ear started to swell up. Of course I had to finish practice, after practice the guy who hurt me slapped me in the ear and told me to toughen up. The next week we went into the doctor to get it drained. They cut a big gash in my ear and left a kind of tube in it to let it drain. They wrapped my head up with gauze and sent me home. I still trained that night till the entire headwrap of gauss was soaked in blood… The other kids at school weren’t too kind about it either, a muscular girl with deformed ears isn’t really “miss popularity” material.

Miesha claims I’ve never tasted my own blood, but I’ve been inadvertently kneed in the face during training and broke my nose a few times, blood splatter everywhere, I got two very stylish black eyes and continued training without a pause. Honestly, I always thought a broken nose was so minor it wasn’t really anything worth mentioning or bragging about…

At 16 I tore my ACL during practice. My mom made me finish training that night as well as the following morning before I got another coach to look at my knee. They sent me in for an MRI and found that my ACL was totally missing. A month or so later I got surgery. Two weeks after surgery I was already back on the mat doing push-ups and sit-ups, whatever I could do without using my knee. A week later I was drilling ne-waza (ground techniques) and continued to only focus on my ground game till I could fight standing again.

At 18 I fought in the German open. My first match was against Finland. I was winning until the last 45 seconds when I tried a risky throw which unfortunately set myself up for an armbar. Before I could believe it, she already dislocated my elbow. I remember thinking: “Well…its already out, tapping won’t make it better, I only have 45 seconds…” I didn’t tap, I kept fighting and my elbow snapped back into place, she popped it out again before I finally escaped the hold and was able to relocate my elbow a second time. I stood up, continued fighting, and won.

Too bad I only had a two minute break because I had to fight the world champ from France next. I remember I couldn’t even pick my arm up from my side, so I had to lift it to my face with my other arm in order to be able to hold it up. I lost pretty quickly, But Decosse (that was her name) quickly advanced and I was dropped into the loser’s bracket to fight back up for third. I won my next match against a German before having to promptly face Olympic Medalist Urska Zolnir from Slovenia. We fought a very close match but I lost. The next day the training camp started and for the following week I sparred with all the best women in the world for two 2 hour sessions a day. By the time I got home my elbow was the size of a grapefruit.

At 20 I tore the meniscus in my knee almost in half. One half flipped over and it jammed my knee into place. I couldn’t bend or straighten it and needed surgery immediately. Unfortunately the Pan American championships were a week away and it was an extremely crucial competition when it came to qualifying the 70kg category for the USA in the 2008 Olympics.

My mother’s words echoed in my head “Sometime you need to fight when you’re injured” I fought anyway, and got a bronze. The USA’s Pan Am ranking was secured, and I was rushed to LA the day after to undergo surgery. Afterwards the doctor came up to me and said. “From what I found in there, I’m surprised you walked in the door. You’re a real warrior.”

A few months later I fought in Germany again. My second match was against Edith Bosche from Netherlands, the defending world champ at the time. Early in the match she did a Wakegatame – an illegal move in judo due to that fact that it dislocates the elbow during the throw and doesn’t give your opponent a chance to submit. She was disqualified but I popped my elbow back in and fought on. I ended up getting third that day.

A while after that, Edith fought again. This time at the semi finals of the World Championships in Rio. She did the same move and dislocated my elbow again, but this time the referees didn’t see it and we continued. I was losing until the last 20 seconds, when I caught her with a Sode – a one handed throw, using the arm she injured, and won the match. Even the Brazilian crown that was extremely hostile towards me earlier in the day burst into applause. It was one of my proudest moments in judo.

Less than a year ago my first pro fight was against Ediene Gomes, a 6-1 Brazilian from American Top Team. Three days before the fight I incurred a brutal pitbull bite that required 9 stitches, the wound went down to the bone and the doctor said I was lucky the teeth just barely missed my tendons. I needed this fight, and refused to withdrawal. I asked the doctor if I would permanently injure myself if I fought. He said no, but I would be in a world of pain and the stitches would burst open by the end of the first round. I made myself go through weigh-ins without limping. I stripped naked on the scale (though my opponent was 4 lbs heavy) so the towels would cover my foot (there were no socks allowed). When it came time to fight, I won in 26 seconds. I didn’t have another option. “Sometimes you have to fight when you’re injured.”

Karo Parisyan, former UFC top contender has known and trained with me since I started judo at 11, in a recent interview with Fightline he said:

“Ronda is a kid that trained with us for many years at Team Hayastan. The reason why Ronda is so good, is because Ronda was a cute little girl – she’s not little no more – but she was a cute little girl that trained with guys like us. She wasn’t training with other girls. Other girls she would beat up, so she would train with us. She would cry. I would yell at her, ‘Suck your lip up! I don’t want you crying!’ She would suck her lip up and continue on. She would cry so much during practice because we would push her. That’s why she became an animal in the cage and on the mat. She’ll destroy ninety-five percent of the guys I know in my life. It is inspiring; it is motivating, to see all these colleagues and these people that I’ve known come up and make something of themselves. It’s good. I’m really happy for her. I’d say she’s gonna’ beat anybody that they put her in with, just because I know how good Ronda is. She’s a strong girl. She’s really strong mentally.”

I don’t know what Miesha thinks being “Pampered and Protected” means, but I suggest she invests in a dictionary.

[sideloaded]

tl;dr

Cliff notes? I'm sure she is tough and trains with guys. So does Miesha.

I feel a lot of people like Ronda more because she's personable and seems cool to hang out with. That's not a reason to bet a fighter.

She's 4-0 and has only used judo agianst at best journeymen fighters. This isn't like Jon Jones where she is excelling at a quick rate at all aspects of MMA.

[Vaughany]

tl;dr

Cliff notes? I'm sure she is tough and trains with guys. So does Miesha.

I feel a lot of people like Ronda more because she's personable and seems cool to hang out with. That's not a reason to bet a fighter.

She's 4-0 and has only used judo agianst at best journeymen fighters. This isn't like Jon Jones where she is excelling at a quick rate at all aspects of MMA.

I actually prefer Tate! Ronda gets annoying after the while...seems like she's trying to hard

[sideloaded]

I like them both. Great personalties but this line is atrocious. If Miesha was -120 That would be still giving Ronda huge credit given she is so young in the sport and Tate is the champion. -300 Ronda is really one of the worst lines I've seen in years.

[Beelzebubzy]

I would favor Rhonda over Caraway for the record

[gabe]

He made fun of me yesterday about arbing actually! Your turn today

When he makes fun of you, he uses smileys and stuff so you know it's in friendly fun