what gabe says.

**fosho14** · 02-12-12, 04:37 PM

I don't see how simpson loses to markes. Vemola has not shown to have effective wrestling despite his credentials, which is masking a lot of the true reason markes won that fight. Simpson on the other hand possess phenomenal wrestling and also actually uses it and is succesful with it. Contrary to what gabe has said, simpson has shown to have a decent chin.

I don't reccommend any kind of play on Markes

**gabe** · 02-12-12, 08:50 PM

Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8

Bet the house on Markes then, no? You've assigned him at -900, and the books are gifting you near EV odds, representing tremendous value.

Yeah, because feeling 90% confident in a fighter is the same as considering them a -900 favorite. SMH

I was 98% sure Renan Barao would beat Scott Jorgenson, so I guess I thought he should have been -980? You guys are ridiculous.

**Vitooch** · 02-12-12, 09:03 PM

He asked you what percentage he has of winning, and to be realistic. How confident you are in him is irrelevant.

**gabe** · 02-12-12, 09:18 PM

Originally posted by Vitooch

He asked you what percentage he has of winning, and to be realistic. How confident you are in him is irrelevant.

How is it irrelevant? If my confidence in a play is irrelevant, then what is relevant?

**gabe** · 02-12-12, 09:19 PM

Originally posted by fosho14

I don't see how simpson loses to markes. Vemola has not shown to have effective wrestling despite his credentials, which is masking a lot of the true reason markes won that fight. Simpson on the other hand possess phenomenal wrestling and also actually uses it and is succesful with it. Contrary to what gabe has said, simpson has shown to have a decent chin. I don't reccommend any kind of play on Markes

WTF? That is not contrary to what gabe said, because gabe never implied that Simpson has a weak chin.

**FightFightFight** · 02-12-12, 09:36 PM

Awesome thread guys. Keep up the good work.

**Giblets** · 02-12-12, 09:58 PM

Originally posted by gabe

HUH??? I just told you math IS important when you arb and hedge like V and Nunya but not really when you're just tryna figure out who will win a fight. I really don't think what I'm doing is a bad idea. Right now V has Jake Ellenberger has his last leg (or one of last 2 legs) in a lot of parlays, and if I were him and thought there was value in Diego Sanchez, I would make a straight play on Sanchez. I've got Miocic in a few parlays, and hopefully the other legs come through. If Miocic loses and ruins the parlay, at least I've got the straight play on De Fries to make up for my losses. If I stopped doing it this way, I wouldn't "cut my losses," I would add to them. As long as Ronny Markes wins, it won't matter what happens in this fight. I'll profit from either fighter winning. You say bad idea, I say good idea.

I redid the math and you're right, but it depends. It can help to make money by betting on both if one is in a parlay (obviously you can't bet on both singley though). Just as long as you're confident that one guy will more than likely win and the other guy still has a shot as an underdog with good value. Good luck on the event Gabe!!! I've only got a few plays this time.

$20 on Ellenberger/Herman parlay to win $25.50
$5 on Sanchez to win $12.50
$10 on Struve to win $10.50

I did quite well at the last event so feel free to chase anyone!!!

**fosho14** · 02-12-12, 11:10 PM

Hey gabe, sorry about that, my apologies! It must have been someone else on here who was saying that. Anyways, do you have any response to my original comment. Thanks

**SharpBoxing** · 02-13-12, 02:41 AM

Originally posted by Giblets

I redid the math and you're right, but it depends. It can help to make money by betting on both if one is in a parlay (obviously you can't bet on both singley though). Just as long as you're confident that one guy will more than likely win and the other guy still has a shot as an underdog with good value. Good luck on the event Gabe!!! I've only got a few plays this time.

I did quite well at the last event so feel free to chase anyone!!!

No betting on both sides even if its a parlay is dumb. Give me an example of what Gabe did with the stakes and ods, and I can proof why its dumb.

**gabe** · 02-13-12, 02:51 AM

Originally posted by SharpBoxing

No betting on both sides even if its a parlay is dumb. Give me an example of what Gabe did with the stakes and ods, and I can proof why its dumb.

It's kinda dumb because you usually lose a little money 'cos you made the straight bet on the underdog... but it's better to be safe than sorry, 'cos once in a while that underdog will win and ruin your parlay- but if you've got the little straight play on him, then you make a minor profit when your parlays tank.

**gabe** · 02-13-12, 02:54 AM

Originally posted by Giblets

I redid the math and you're right, but it depends. It can help to make money by betting on both if one is in a parlay (obviously you can't bet on both singley though). Just as long as you're confident that one guy will more than likely win and the other guy still has a shot as an underdog with good value. Good luck on the event Gabe!!! I've only got a few plays this time.

$20 on Ellenberger/Beltran parlay to win $25.50
$5 on Sanchez to win $12.50
$10 on Struve to win $10.50

I did quite well at the last event so feel free to chase anyone!!!

Beltran???????

Originally posted by fosho14

Hey gabe, sorry about that, my apologies! It must have been someone else on here who was saying that. Anyways, do you have any response to my original comment. Thanks

I didn't spot a single question in your post. If you have one, ask.

**SharpBoxing** · 02-13-12, 03:41 AM

Originally posted by gabe

It's kinda dumb because you usually lose a little money 'cos you made the straight bet on the underdog... but it's better to be safe than sorry, 'cos once in a while that underdog will win and ruin your parlay- but if you've got the little straight play on him, then you make a minor profit when your parlays tank.

ok so this is your parlay with Miocic in it

Jon Jones -525
Ronny Markes +120
Stipe Miocic -350
$21 to win $49.71

So how much did you bet on de Fries and at what ods?

**gabe** · 02-13-12, 04:07 AM

Originally posted by SharpBoxing

ok so this is your parlay with Miocic in it Jon Jones -525 Ronny Markes +120 Stipe Miocic -350 $21 to win $49.71 So how much did you bet on de Fries and at what ods?

haven't bet yet. it's at +325 now, waiting til fight time

i've got miocic in a couple other parlays too

**Vaughany** · 02-13-12, 04:12 AM

Originally posted by SharpBoxing

ok so this is your parlay with Miocic in it

Jon Jones -525
Ronny Markes +120
Stipe Miocic -350
$21 to win $49.71

So how much did you bet on de Fries and at what ods?

Originally posted by gabe

$21 to win $50 on Miocic parlay
$25 to win $75 on De Fries straight

De Fries wins, I profit $54. Miocic parlay hits, I profit $25.

You're still not selling me on why it's a bad idea. As long as Markes and Herman keep up their end, I should be good either way here.

There u go

**bjpenn85** · 02-13-12, 04:18 AM

Even if the line change? Given that the line is not changing, it may be a dumb idea as you loose by paying the books commission.

**gabe** · 02-13-12, 04:20 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

There u go

De Fries line has improved since then, so the return would be greater.

**gabe** · 02-13-12, 04:21 AM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

Even if the line change? Given that the line is not changing, it may be a dumb idea as you loose by paying the books commission.

i don't understand what you just said, but i'm hoping he'll be +350 (or possibly +400) by fight time

**SharpBoxing** · 02-13-12, 04:23 AM

Jon Jones -525
Ronny Markes +120
Stipe Miocic -350
$21 to win $49.71

$25 to win $75 on De Fries straight

Ok so if your parlay hits you make a 25 dollar profit.
If you straight bet wins you make a 54 dollar profit.

Wouldnt it be better if you scratch the Miriocic play in your parlay and the straight play on de Fries?

Jon Jones -525
Ronny Markes +120
$21 to win $33.98

If the parlay hits you make 33.98 profit instead of 25 like what you are doing.

**gabe** · 02-13-12, 04:25 AM

Originally posted by SharpBoxing

Jon Jones -525 Ronny Markes +120 Stipe Miocic -350 $21 to win $49.71 $25 to win $75 on De Fries straight Ok so if your parlay hits you make a 25 dollar profit. If you straight bet wins you make a 54 dollar profit. Wouldnt it be better if you scratch the Miriocic play in your parlay and the straight play on de Fries? Jon Jones -525 Ronny Markes +120 $21 to win $33.98 If the parlay hits you make 33.98 profit instead of 25 like what you are doing.

But then I wouldn't have action on that fight... =/

Also there's the likelihood that De Fries could win, so having the play on him is what matters... throwing Miocic in parlays is for the hell of it.

**SharpBoxing** · 02-13-12, 04:30 AM

Jon Jones -525
Ronny Markes +120
$21 to win $33.98

ok so make a $9 straight play on the Fries.

If he loses and you parlay wins you make a $25 profit. ( just like in your situation but with a smaller stake)
If he wins and you parlay wins you make $60 profit. (in you situation you would only make $54 profit with a much higher stake)

Like I said playing on both sides is dumb even if its a parlay

**bjpenn85** · 02-13-12, 04:37 AM

What i mean is that when you look at fighter A and B. If you play on both sides, you will loose money right? The books commission.
Ellenberger = -340
Can = +280

You either risk to much, or do not get what you deserve...
So when you bet on both sides gabe...you take your clothes off, bend over, and asking the books gently to fakk you over.

Not necessarily tho, if there is line movement, is my point, if there is line movement you can take advantage, even in a parlay.

**Oblivian** · 02-13-12, 09:45 AM

I will be shocked if De Fries beats Miocic. De Fries entire game is trying to get the takedown, working his top game, or trying to get the back. We saw that De Fries takedowns aren't really that great, his striking has never been that good, and his bottom game isn't very good. Against a guy like Miocic, all of De Fries' advantages are pretty much non-existent since he probably won't get Miocic down. Even if he does, his top game is more of a grinding style rather than jumping on a sub.

I just have a hard time seeing this capped at a 35% of De Fries winning.

**Beelzebubzy** · 02-13-12, 09:56 AM

Originally posted by Oblivian

I will be shocked if De Fries beats Miocic. De Fries entire game is trying to get the takedown, working his top game, or trying to get the back. We saw that De Fries takedowns aren't really that great, his striking has never been that good, and his bottom game isn't very good. Against a guy like Miocic, all of De Fries' advantages are pretty much non-existent since he probably won't get Miocic down. Even if he does, his top game is more of a grinding style rather than jumping on a sub.

I just have a hard time seeing this capped at a 35% of De Fries winning.

add in Stipes wrestling pedigree

I think this is a UFC showcase fight where they are trying to creat a new star in Stipe

**Oblivian** · 02-13-12, 10:08 AM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

add in Stipes wrestling pedigree

I think this is a UFC showcase fight where they are trying to creat a new star in Stipe

Agreed. Stylistically, I can't think of a worse pairing for De Fries. I actually bet on De Fries over Broughton thinking that was an awful matchup for Broughton (worst TDD in the UFC IMO), but De Fries even made me nervous there. I was very underwhelmed by him in a matchup that I thought was tailor made for him. I can't imagine how he is going to look here.

**gabe** · 02-13-12, 12:59 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

What i mean is that when you look at fighter A and B. If you play on both sides, you will loose money right? The books commission. Ellenberger = -340 Can = +280 You either risk to much, or do not get what you deserve... So when you bet on both sides gabe...you take your clothes off, bend over, and asking the books gently to fakk you over. Not necessarily tho, if there is line movement, is my point, if there is line movement you can take advantage, even in a parlay.

yup.

**gabe** · 02-13-12, 12:59 PM

Miocic will more than likely win, but I still don't think he should be -400.

**TheCalculator** · 02-13-12, 02:02 PM

De Fries by submission vs Miocic by tko.

**gabe** · 02-13-12, 04:17 PM

Originally posted by TheCalculator

De Fries by submission vs Miocic by tko.

or miocic by decision

**sideloaded** · 02-13-12, 04:22 PM

gabe you seen hermans interviews. He's acting like a crazy man. I would go big on struve.

**gabe** · 02-13-12, 04:24 PM

Originally posted by sideloaded

gabe you seen hermans interviews. He's acting like a crazy man. I would go big on struve.

no, i haven't. link?

**Vaughany** · 02-13-12, 04:30 PM

Herman loves to troll, I wouldnt buy in to half of what he says

**Vaughany** · 02-13-12, 04:30 PM

Originally posted by gabe

no, i haven't. link?

Was on Helwani's show earlier along with Ellenberger, Condit and Rogan... mmafighting.com

**fosho14** · 02-13-12, 04:41 PM

People havent really been talking about this but I got the dirty bird over Magalhaes. very confident

**Vaughany** · 02-13-12, 04:42 PM

Originally posted by fosho14

People havent really been talking about this but I got the dirty bird over Magalhaes. very confident

Yeah it's one Im looking in to at moment

**fosho14** · 02-13-12, 04:46 PM

especially at +175, For what it's worth, Jordan breen has been big on this guy, and is predicting him to win also.