what gabe says.

**scofflaw** · 02-10-12, 08:32 PM

I think you're off on De Fries and he's not worth touching at all. When I saw De Fries debut I was excited about fading him in the future. It's too bad the Miocic price is so high that it's only small parlay filler now. De Fries looks incapable of winning a fight versus anyone with competent ground skills.

**gabe** · 02-10-12, 09:13 PM

Originally posted by scofflaw

I think you're off on De Fries and he's not worth touching at all. When I saw De Fries debut I was excited about fading him in the future. It's too bad the Miocic price is so high that it's only small parlay filler now. De Fries looks incapable of winning a fight versus anyone with competent ground skills.

Chances are Miocic wins, but there's def value in De Fries at those odds.

I don't think he looked terrible against Broughton. He beat Broughton, and Broughton is no joke. Guy is tough, Travis Browne barely beat him.

**Giblets** · 02-10-12, 10:50 PM

Not trying to be a dick or anything Gabe but putting Miocic in a parlay and betting De Fries Straight up does not make any sense. You`re justing giving money away. If yòu`re going with props it`s fine but otherwise it doesn`t make sense. Just some friendly advice.

**NunyaBidness** · 02-10-12, 10:51 PM

Originally posted by gabe

Jon Jones -525
Ronny Markes +120
Stipe Miocic -350
$21 to win $49.71

I like Miocic vs De Fries, but I don't like him enough to play him straight up. For a straight play, I would advise going with De Fries. There's legit value there. De Fries by Submission would be a good prop bet. De Fries Submission of the Night, also. That said, including Miocic in a parlay or two won't be a bad idea.

You're making a big mistake here. I realize you don't get the math, but just trust me on this. If you think De Fries has the value in a straight up play then you should NEVER EVER be putting Miocic in a parlay.

**SATERSTYLE** · 02-10-12, 11:15 PM

Holy ******* shit he actually posted dollar amounts before the event its a mother ******* apocalypse just kill me now ****

**gabe** · 02-10-12, 11:19 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

You're making a big mistake here. I realize you don't get the math, but just trust me on this. If you think De Fries has the value in a straight up play then you should NEVER EVER be putting Miocic in a parlay.

I saw value in Max Holloway and Chris Cope last weak and made straight plays on 'em, but included Poirier and Brown in parlays - I didn't regret it.

Bottom line is, I think Miocic has the best shot, but is being over-valued. It makes sense playing him in a parlay, but not really worth it straight up. De Fries on the other hand is being under-valued, IMO, so a straight play at +300 isn't a bad idea.

**gabe** · 02-10-12, 11:22 PM

Originally posted by SATERSTYLE

Holy ******* shit he actually posted dollar amounts before the event its a mother ******* apocalypse just kill me now ****

Huh? I always include the dollar amounts with the parlays. I didn't include what I got on Herman and Markes because it will change by fight time. Pointless to say how much I've got on a certain fighter when it keeps changing. But yeah- got Markes maxed out at +120 but will arb out if Simpson reaches at least EV. Maxed out on Herman, too, will probably arb if Struve reaches at least +150.

Might not arb with either, I am liking 'em both...

**gabe** · 02-10-12, 11:26 PM

Originally posted by Giblets

Not trying to be a dick or anything Gabe but putting Miocic in a parlay and betting De Fries Straight up does not make any sense. You`re justing giving money away. If yòu`re going with props it`s fine but otherwise it doesn`t make sense. Just some friendly advice.

If De Fries loses and my Herman-Markes-Miocic parlay hits, how does it not make sense?

If either of them hits, it's a big win.

**Giblets** · 02-10-12, 11:35 PM

Originally posted by gabe

If De Fries loses and my Herman-Markes-Miocic parlay hits, how does it not make sense? I figure if either of them hits, it's a big win.

It doesn't make sense because the amount of value that Miocic increases the parlay is negated by the straight up play on De Fries (you'll lose the amount of juice in the line). I'm not very good at explaining it so I'm not gonna try. Plus if Nunya explains it you get a more condescending dickish tone which is ALWAYS more entertaining.

**gabe** · 02-10-12, 11:49 PM

Originally posted by Giblets

It doesn't make sense because the amount of value that Miocic increases the parlay is negated by the straight up play on De Fries (you'll lose the amount of juice in the line). I'm not very good at explaining it so I'm not gonna try. Plus if Nunya explains it you get a more condescending dickish tone which is ALWAYS more entertaining.

Thinking one fighter has a better shot at winning and including him in a parlay and playing his opponent straight up at a great value does not seem like a bad idea to me. It certainly proved to be a good idea last week!

Yeah, you could argue that I threw away money on Cope, but I saw enough value in him to make a play. Matt Brown was def not worth -360 or whatever he was. Made sense in a parlay, though!

**NunyaBidness** · 02-11-12, 12:13 AM

Originally posted by gabe

Bottom line is, I think Miocic has the best shot, but is being over-valued. It makes sense playing him in a parlay, but not really worth it straight up. De Fries on the other hand is being under-valued, IMO, so a straight play at +300 isn't a bad idea.

If you ever figure this stuff out, years from now, you're going to look at all this stuff you posted and have a good belly laugh.

Simple example:
Parlaying Miocic -350 + Jon Jones -525 + Markes +120 = +240 100 to win 240

Throw in a straight play on De Fries at +300 = OMG BIG WIN EITHER WAY! 100 to win 300

No, it really = paying the juice on both sides.

We have 3 possible outcomes
a) De Fries wins
b) Miocic wins and one or more of his co-legs lose
c) Miocic wins and both his co-legs win

In all examples we are risking $200.

In example a, we have won $200
In example b, our worst case scenario we lose BOTH BETS for $200
In example c, we win $140, in essence risking $200 to win $140 on a parlay of Jones and Markes, when we could've simply parlayed Jones/Markes for +162.

**gabe** · 02-11-12, 12:29 AM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

If you ever figure this stuff out, years from now, you're going to look at all this stuff you posted and have a good belly laugh.

Simple example:
Parlaying Miocic -350 + Jon Jones -525 + Markes +120 = +240 100 to win 240

Throw in a straight play on De Fries at +300 = OMG BIG WIN EITHER WAY! 100 to win 300

No, it really = paying the juice on both sides.

We have 3 possible outcomes
a) De Fries wins
b) Miocic wins and one or more of his co-legs lose
c) Miocic wins and both his co-legs win

In all examples we are risking $200.

In example a, we have won $200
In example b, our worst case scenario we lose BOTH BETS for $200
In example c, we win $140, in essence risking $200 to win $140 on a parlay of Jones and Markes, when we could've simply parlayed Jones/Markes for +162.

$21 to win $50 on Miocic parlay
$25 to win $75 on De Fries straight

De Fries wins, I profit $54. Miocic parlay hits, I profit $25.

You're still not selling me on why it's a bad idea. As long as Markes and Herman keep up their end, I should be good either way here.

**NunyaBidness** · 02-11-12, 12:29 AM

Originally posted by gabe

Thinking one fighter has a better shot at winning and including him in a parlay and playing his opponent straight up at a great value does not seem like a bad idea to me. It certainly proved to be a good idea last week!

Yeah, you could argue that I threw away money on Cope, but I saw enough value in him to make a play. Matt Brown was def not worth -360 or whatever he was. Made sense in a parlay, though!

You get very confused by the idea that just because you won a bet, doesn't make it a good bet.

I used to play poker with a guy, we had a longstanding bet. I would bet every flop was going to come 3 to a flush, and if it did he would give me a green chip. If it didn't, I would give him a white chip. He and his friends would laugh and laugh and laugh as his stack of $1 chips grew higher and higher through the night. He won so much more often than I did.

**NunyaBidness** · 02-11-12, 12:32 AM

Originally posted by gabe

$21 to win $50 on Miocic parlay
$25 to win $75 on De Fries straight

De Fries wins, I profit $54. Miocic parlay hits, I profit $25.

You're still not selling me on why it's a bad idea. As long as Markes and Herman keep up their end, I should be good either way here.

Okay, I'll show you. You assign realistic percentages for the following events:

Jon Jones wins
Ronny Markes wins
Stipe Miocic wins
De Fries wins

realistic percentages please, not your 97% stuff.

**gabe** · 02-11-12, 12:34 AM

Another $25 to win $75 on De Fries and Markes+Miocic parlay for $25 to win $45.71

De Fries wins, I'm up $150. Miocic comes through, I'm up $70. Win/Win

**gabe** · 02-11-12, 12:38 AM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Okay, I'll show you. You assign realistic percentages for the following events:

Jon Jones wins
Ronny Markes wins
Stipe Miocic wins
De Fries wins

realistic percentages please, not your 97% stuff.

I'd say:

Jones - 98%
Markes - 90%
Miocic - 65%
De Fries - 35%

**NunyaBidness** · 02-11-12, 12:43 AM

I say:
"realistic percentages please, not your 97% stuff."

You say:
Jones - 98%
Markes - 90%

Jones gets DQd alone > 2%

**gabe** · 02-11-12, 01:10 AM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

I say: "realistic percentages please, not your 97% stuff." You say: Jones - 98% Markes - 90% Jones gets DQd alone > 2%

Not counting possible DQ or Draw. Inc. all that, Jones is at least 95% for me. I wouldn't say Jones DQ is 2%. It's less than 1% in my book. The Hamill loss was a learning experience.

**Vaughany** · 02-11-12, 02:57 AM

Originally posted by gabe

I'd say:

Jones - 98%
Markes - 90%
Miocic - 65%
De Fries - 35%

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

I say:
"realistic percentages please, not your 97% stuff."

You say:
Jones - 98%
Markes - 90%

Jones gets DQd alone > 2%

Fu*kin amazing!

**Vaughany** · 02-11-12, 03:01 AM

Originally posted by gabe

Another $25 to win $75 on De Fries and Markes+Miocic parlay for $25 to win $45.71

De Fries wins, I'm up $150. Miocic comes through, I'm up $70. Win/Win

*Miocic and Markes comes through you'd be up $70

**Giblets** · 02-11-12, 03:15 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

*Miocic and Markes comes through you'd be up $70

I think Gabe figured out a way to beat the system

**Vitooch** · 02-11-12, 04:27 AM

Lol at markes winning 90% of the time. Does gabe know something we dont? Perhaps some inside info from BallinBlades?

**Vitooch** · 02-11-12, 04:35 AM

You have a fighter in Markes who has won once in the UFC against an overrated Vemola winning 90% Of the time against a fighter whose only two UFC losses are against Chris Leben and Mark Munoz. You say Markes will win with his standup but you dont think Simpson, the talented collegiate wrestler, has a chance of outwrestling Markes? And Why do you think Markes will be able to finish Simpson, who took tremendous shots from the likes of Mark Munoz and did not go down? Markes won his only fight in the UFC with his wrestling. Nothing in that performance indicates he will be able to finish Simpson inside the distance with his standup 90% of the time. Simpson is a tough dude who has beaten the likes of Ed Herman and Tom Lawlor, two fighters signifcantly better than the reckless bulldog Vemola

**varkolek** · 02-11-12, 08:39 AM

Originally posted by gabe

UFC on FUEL TV 1

Ronny Markes +120 > Aaron Simpson (4/5)

Ronny keeps it standing and outstrikes Simpson.

I have already bet on Markes, larger than I would have done in the past because I noticed the more successful gamblers on here bet more when the line is mispriced.

But I think Simpson is a better striker. I just bet on Markes because I think even if Simpson bulked up he couldn't manhandle Vemola like that. I usually bet on the person who will get takedowns and top control, and avoid betting against the (better) wrestler. Maybe Simpson can make the wrestling competitive I don't know.

Of course, I haven't actually watched all of Markes' fights. I didn't watch his whole fight with Paulo Filho, just skipped through and saw a lot of it was done standing. Perhaps you've watched more footage and seen Markes is a better striker than I give him credit for.

**Wanna Bet On It?** · 02-11-12, 09:22 AM

Originally posted by gabe

Huh? I always include the dollar amounts with the parlays. I didn't include what I got on Herman and Markes because it will change by fight time. Pointless to say how much I've got on a certain fighter when it keeps changing. But yeah- got Markes maxed out at +120 but will arb out if Simpson reaches at least EV. Maxed out on Herman, too, will probably arb if Struve reaches at least +150.

Might not arb with either, I am liking 'em both...

Why the hell would you arb out on Simpson at even when you cap Markes winning at 90% (i.e. Simpson should be +900)??? LOLOLOL. That's Gabetarded.

So much F graded math skills in this thread by Gabriel brings the lulz

**gabe** · 02-11-12, 10:03 AM

Originally posted by Vitooch

Lol at markes winning 90% of the time. Does gabe know something we dont? Perhaps some inside info from BallinBlades?

Judging by the past few weeks you've had and I've had, I certainly know a lot that you don't.

Not gonna argue with fools I do much better than. Did enough of that over the past few weeks and still ended up doing better than your asses.

**gabe** · 02-11-12, 10:06 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

*Miocic and Markes comes through you'd be up $70

Thanks for pointing out the clearly obvious, retardo.

**gabe** · 02-11-12, 10:09 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Fu*kin amazing!

I've told you I don't consider anything a lock unless it's at least 95% and you're amazed that I consider Jones a 98%er???Now THAT is amazing!

**gabe** · 02-11-12, 10:47 AM

Originally posted by Wanna Bet On It?

Why the hell would you arb out on Simpson at even when you cap Markes winning at 90% (i.e. Simpson should be +900)

lol no wonder you're one of the worst betters on this forum.

**Wanna Bet On It?** · 02-11-12, 10:48 AM

Originally posted by Giblets

I think Gabe figured out a way to beat the system

You can use your SBR points to purchase his latest book:

Kracking Da Da Vinchi Kode bye Gabe

Btw, love the new Av.

**Wanna Bet On It?** · 02-11-12, 10:58 AM

Originally posted by gabe

lol no wonder you're one of the worst betters on this forum.

Great comeback Aristotle. Now show me the evidence to backup your claim. My track record of MMA betting speaks for itself on Sherdog and, more recently, as a member of SBR.

I've never claimed to be the best capper here but I most certainly consistently turn a profit, something you can't claim (unless you think that cheating your bookie after the fact counts). I'm about 97-99% sure of that.

**gabe** · 02-11-12, 11:04 AM

Originally posted by Wanna Bet On It?

Great comeback Aristotle. Now show me the evidence to backup your claim. My track record of MMA betting speaks for itself on Sherdog and, more recently, as a member of SBR. I've never claimed to be the best capper here but I most certainly consistently turn a profit, something you can't claim (unless you think that cheating your bookie after the fact counts). I'm about 97-99% sure of that.

"comeback" ?? So you're admitting you started a fight and were looking for a comeback??? lol sorry pal, what i said wasn't a "comeback" - simply fact.

Check my threads and tell me I haven't made a profit

**Wanna Bet On It?** · 02-11-12, 11:13 AM

Originally posted by gabe

Check my threads and tell me I haven't made a profit

I did. You don't. You admit to cheating to make up for your losses.

Gabe this relationship started off so pleasant. But I'm sorry to say that it's turned sour.

I've done a lot of introspection and I've realized that I only have a soft spot for kind-hearted retards not mean, aggressive ones.

I hope you understand.

**gabe** · 02-11-12, 11:14 AM

Originally posted by Wanna Bet On It?

Great comeback Aristotle. Now show me the evidence to backup your claim. My track record of MMA betting speaks for itself on Sherdog and, more recently, as a member of SBR.

I've never claimed to be the best capper here but I most certainly consistently turn a profit, something you can't claim (unless you think that cheating your bookie after the fact counts). I'm about 97-99% sure of that.

lmao-- i just checked your post history. you've been hating on me since you started posting here!! haha no wonder you're still talking shit. you were on lentz-beltran-roller while i was big against them. there's your "evidence," you pathetic loser. wow, good thing i looked in your thread history. half of your posts consist of talking shit towards me. pathetic fu*k.