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Sakara being in shape wont help his chinComment -
Is anybody on the T.Silva or Sakara?
Just think the price on both is solid considering their respective matchups. If you were to tell me Sakara was +340 vs someone w/o an above avg grappling base, I'd guess it'd be vs. fighters much better than Brian Stann. I'm sure I'll lose via Jackson gameplan. Gustaffson is best in the brawl and Silva likewise; granted Silva hasn't beat anyone on Gustaffson's level, he's only lost to Rashad via doublelegs and Machida via Machida, it'll be interesting if the Mauler can put it on him, I'd be overly impressed. Gustaffson's (presumed?) reach and the hometown crowd prevent me from going bigger or even think coinflip,Comment -
Alessio trains in a box...very unorthodox!..
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did anyone get maguire at +120 on bovada?? or was that a line error?Comment -
I'm considering a play on Sakara, i think they are way over valuing Stann based on his ko's over Leben/Santiago. Santiago has a glass chin and its hard to gauge a win over Leben based on his condition. Is Stann really a -400 fighter, in 7 of 8 of his UFC fights he was the betting dog
obviously Sakara isn't great, but a big part of this bet is based on I thoiught he was winning in the standup against Leben and McFedries before getting knocked out. Thats why i'm considering Sakara by decision +600, or i might just wait to see how it plays out in the 1st round and maybe hit it in live betting.Comment -
i'm all in on stann.Comment -
My UFC on Fuel 2 Plays
Here they are, prob a couple more small ones that I'll place tomorrow.
----------------------------------Ticket#:68464408
Apr 14 03:30 PMINTERNET / -1 Apr 12 11:07 PM MU STRAIGHT BET
[24213] J MAGUIRE -160
(J MAGUIRE vrs D JOHNSON)800 / 500
------------------------------------Ticket#:66938395
Apr 14 04:45 PMINTERNET / -1 Mar 11 07:09 PM MU STRAIGHT BET
[24205] A SAKARA +320
(A SAKARA vrs B STANN)50 / 160
Note: I only have 25 to win 55 on t silva, the other 25 of this play is my friend's bet.Ticket#:68075871
Apr 14 05:20 PMINTERNET / -1 Apr 04 11:35 AM MU STRAIGHT BET
[24201] T SILVA +215
(T SILVA vrs A GUSTAFSSON)51 / 110
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Obviously going big on Maguire. Really pissed I didn't get that opener at + odds, but shit, even at -160 I'm grateful. If I were a lines maker I would have put maguire at -260ish...
I've kept a close eye on this since the match up was made and have done a ton of research on it. VERY confident in maguire getting the W. Normally I'm not confident in my picks and always doubt myself, but feeling good on this one. To put it bluntly, Johnson isn't that good and this is a horrible match up for him. If maguire had raw ko power in his hands and a bit more technicality on the feet, I'd be driving out to vegas and putting every dime to my name on him. However, I do have to give the edge in stand up to demarques and its what has kept me from going super crazy on John. Neverthless, its not what I would call a huge edge.
Maguire's stand up is good enough to hang with johnson to set up the clinch or leg shot. Furthermore, the few people that are picking johnson to win are putting MUCH faith in his stand up. He ko'd clay and tko'd blackburn, his only two stoppages via strikes in zuffa. even before that his tko wins were against cans. Clay imo is a C level fighter at best. I thought edwards was robbed against clay and outside of that fight I really haven't seen anything too impressive from him (although I can't believe edwards didn't completely outclass him). The blackburn fight was VERY competitive. Up until the stoppage it was arguably going in blackburns favor. He made a few stupid mistakes, got reversed and hurt, and imo brad completely 'flopped' and gave up after eating that kick and punches to give demarques the win. Up until that point it was arguably scored for brad, as he might have lost a close round 1, dominated round 2, and was winning up to making a couple stupid mistakes in the 3rd round. I'm bringing all this up because people putting faith in demarques' stand up are basing it off of a very 'meh' opponent and a fight he was arguably losing up until the stoppage. Yet I still believe his technique is better than maguire's and has a more diverse striking attack, but all in all I think maguire's striking is legit enough to set up his ground game.
Furthermore, see maguire's fight with Kong watson as a testament to his chin and heart. Another very close fight going up to the 3rd round (1st round was close, 2nd round clearly scored for maguire, and 3rd round maguire is gassed and takes a hell of a beating before going down), and maguire took some serious punches and knees to the head before the ref jumped in. Kong hits 10x harder than both demarques and edwards, and I also think edwards has more power than demarques and maguire took that power. If demarques does land some leather early I'd be surprised to see maguire go down and get stopped because of it.
On the ground, well its quite simple - Maguire is on another level. His grappling is insane and has some sweet ability to not just chain submissions, but also chain together passes to gain dominant positions. Considering johnson's horrendous 30% tdd, I believe it will be near impossible for him to remain upright against the pink gypsy. I believe edwards is a far superior athlete and has far superior tdd compared to johnson, and maguire handled his ass on 7 of 10 td attempts. Once johnson gets on his back he seems to have a hard time getting the fight back to his favor. I mean sadallah controlled him for god sakes and garcia had him in a bad spot before making a dumb ass move and diving into the triangle. I really think the triangle is the only thing maguire has to watch out for on the ground agtainst demarques, and considering the play by play I read on his bout with simeon thoreson (I searched long and hard for any video and info on this fight and suprisingly I found a very unbiased and detailed description of their fight on simeon's website). On the site simeon describes the bout as very competitive with both guys putting each other in bad spots on the ground and chaining subs against each other. If maguire hung with a legit ground guy with a lanky build (similar to johnson's) in thoreson, then I see him not being threatened by johnson on the ground.
All in all a very bad match up for johnson me thinks. Obviously anything can happen and I could be seriously underestimating johnson and giving maguire too much credit - perhaps I'll be really shamed and will have to eat my own words in a couple days. But I doubt that, since the match was made I told myself I'd pound maguire's line at anything under -200....
Therefore even though I missed the + odds opener, I feel -160 is generous. I might even add more, just holding off to see if maguire's line gets more favorable as I was very suprised to see it drop a few points.
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I've posted my breakdown on sakara / stann in another thread I think. But this is just a value play, stann is def my pick on paper, but if not for sakara's chin, I really don't see much of a disadvantage for him against stann. He is definitely better on the ground if it gets there and don't be suprised if he's been bs ing with this 'stand up war roman soldier vs US marine' stuff.
Same with the t silva play, made it mostly out of value and I liked the odds. Think gustafson will finally have me sold as a true lhw threat after saturday, but hoping silva gets the upset.Comment -
Also thinking about a small upset play on wisely. Obviously he will be outclassed on the feet, but qisely's striking isn't horrible and young's striking teachnique is VERY solid yet doesn't seem to have raw stopping power. While sloppy and not the best technique, Wisely does throw like a bat out of hell and has some power in his hands. If young had wisely's power I wouldn't even consider touching wisely. But I can't see young stopping wisely on the feet, winning points to a decision - yes - but I'm hoping wisely can get it to the ground where he has some pretty unorthadox ground game. Really impressed with his defensive grappling from his fight with healy, and I gotta believe his offensive grappling just as good, although I can't say with confidence that I've seen many full fights of him where he uses great offensive grappling. I just see more opportunities for wisely to finish over 15 minutes, where I see young only winning a UD via a 'peppering' striking clinic. But then again anyone can get ko'd so perhaps I'm underestimating young's power.
Thinking about plays on pickett and deblass also, but both of them I capped at -175, so -200 ish is a bit steep from me and considering the money on maguire already I might just stay away from them.
Where do you guys see Deblass' line moving by fight time?
part of me says take -200 while its there, then part of me tells me old school and casual fans will take diabate closer to fight time...Comment -
Soon time for the weigh-ins, keep an eye on Reza Madadi. He was crazy when he weighed in against Rich Clemente at Superior Challenge 7.Comment -
Siver has gotta lose a pound. Weighed in at 147 nakkeeedComment -
The UFC on FUEL TV 2 weigh-in results included:
MAIN CARD (FUEL TV)
- Alexander Gustafsson (205) vs. Thiago Silva (205)
- Alessio Sakara (186) vs. Brian Stann (185)
- Siyar Bahadurzada (170) vs. Paulo Thiago (170)
- Diego Nunes (146) vs. Dennis Siver (145)
- DaMarques Johnson (171) vs. John Maguire (170)
- Damacio Page (135) vs. Brad Pickett (136)
PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook)
- Papy Abedi (171) vs. James Head (170)
- Tom DeBlass (205) vs. Cyrille Diabate (206)
- Francis Carmont (186) vs. Magnus Cedenblad (185)
- Yoislandy Izquierdo (155) vs. Reza Madadi (155)
- Simeon Thoresen (170) vs. Besam Yousef (170)
- Jason Young (145) vs. Eric Wisely (145)
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Siver made 145 on his second try. He looked like hell though.Comment -
Is there a vid of the weigh-ins out there yet?Comment -
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Adding:
Ticket#:68503153
Apr 14 03:50 PMINTERNET / -1 Apr 13 07:55 PM MU STRAIGHT BET
[24218] D NUNES -160
(D SIVER vrs D NUNES)80 / 50 Ticket#:68503212
Apr 14 03:10 PMINTERNET / -1 Apr 13 07:56 PM MU STRAIGHT BET
[24222] B PICKETT -220
(D PAGE vrs B PICKETT)220 / 100 Ticket#:68447450
Apr 14 02:00 PMINTERNET / -1 Apr 12 06:26 PM MU STRAIGHT BET
[24230] T DEBLASS -200
(C DIABATE vrs T DEBLASS)100 / 50 Comment -
Deblass could be a stud. Reminds me of Chris Weidman.Comment -
0.50u Joe Proctor TUF / Carmont / Siyar Thiago not distance / Mauler Silva not distance
eye'ing plays on Paulo Thiago, Thoresen and MaguireComment -
If I didn't already have a good amount of coin spread around I'd play Thorsen, even at the current odds.
The three fights I saw of Yousef were very unimpressive, and against total cans. For a guy with a boxing base he has some pretty ugly stand up and one of his stoppage wins was one of the worst premature ref stoppages I've ever seen.
I think thor has no problem here. GL tomorrow man.Comment -
Word... in the middle of reviewing Thoresen vids now.
Thus far, have watched his bouts vs Rocha / Valnicius / Jenkins.
Average standup, does keep his hands up, though wasn't crazy about the lack of head movement in the Valnicious fight...
Subs are indeed his game though... pretty solid there. Also liked that he achieved a TD on Valnicious when he winged a punch at him... about to watch Thoresen's loss to Seydina Seck here:
In case any of you other lowlifes are interested... it's a nice HD vid. Seck has a pretty bad record, so I'm curious to see how that fight unfolded.
Watching Yousef later... if he's half as bad as I've read and as Masta described, at a minimum I'll parlay Thoresen.
GL fawkersComment -
Anyone know where I can watch the prelims live? Facebook doesn't seem to air them tonight, right?
It sucks to be stuck here in northern Sweden a night like this... I was supposed to see my first live UFC-event, but due to crappy ticnet-servers and assholes stashing loads of tickets I couldn't get hold of any tickets
And I ain't gonna pay those assholes double the money to get at ticket 
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Im hoping they'll be on ufc.tv or facebook maybe.Anyone know where I can watch the prelims live? Facebook doesn't seem to air them tonight, right?
It sucks to be stuck here in northern Sweden a night like this... I was supposed to see my first live UFC-event, but due to crappy ticnet-servers and assholes stashing loads of tickets I couldn't get hold of any tickets And I ain't gonna pay those assholes double the money to get at ticket Comment -
THe prelims are being aired live here in Australia on Fuel TV. 230am for the prelims, 4-5 is the prefight show and 5am-8am is the main card.
I'm bringing round some mates and we're gonna watch all night!Comment -
Siver dropped winner and sotiropopodopolous.Comment -
can i please get a start time for this event for EST in usa please??
thanks guysComment -
Prelims start in hour and a quarterComment -
was watching your vid ed...very high quality(thanks)....i noticed on one of yousef`s vids on youtube that (in "the zone fc" org.) they showed his record at that point as being 3-2 or 4-2 depending on where you look..
he`s listed as 6-0 at sherdog(who knows)....pretty sure neither guy will be a worldbeater in ufc...yousef appeared to be fighting crap and thoresen seemed very stiff and a slow starter.....looking forward to silva/gustafsson...hope it goes to the ground at some point(not sure what to expect if these two start grappling....
g.l....Comment -
when does the prelims start?Comment
