UFC 139: Hendo vs Shogun

[illmatick]

Cung's lethal with that straight left off his back foot,I could see it playing a big role depending on how aggressive Wandy approaches this fight.

I'm still waiting to make a small play on Cung.

[TheCalculator]

Cung's lethal with that straight left off his back foot,I could see it playing a big role depending on how aggressive Wandy approaches this fight.

I'm still waiting to make a small play on Cung.

Are you waiting for the buy back? The money is still going on Cung. I think the buy-back is coming soon.

[Vitooch]

Making a play on Stephen Bonnar...

Kingsbury lacks the cardio and well-roundedness to beat someone as experienced and tough as Bonnar.

Dude is super athletic but didn't really impress me enough against Fabio. He has good knees in the clinch but not much else

[rocky mattioli]

Making a play on Stephen Bonnar...

Kingsbury lacks the cardio and well-roundedness to beat someone as experienced and tough as Bonnar.

Dude is super athletic but didn't really impress me enough against Fabio. He has good knees in the clinch but not much else

the odds suck,though...i figured a worn down warhorse like bonnar would be a bigger dog here....i was hoping for at least +150.......

[Vaughany]

Yeah, he was +160 when they came out at one point

[proposition joe]

On Bacsynski large, Kampmann medium, and small stabs at Lawlor/Pace. Might play Hendo if he hits +130.

Le/Silva is a gambler's nightmare. Is it possible to fade both fighters here?

Faber should beat Bowles but despite him being around a while, we still really don't know how good Bowles is. No play for me.

Almost played Tibau and would love to see him at -150. Wrestling wins this one.

I like Kingsbu to win but am not ready to make a play on him. Maldonado is a one-dimensional MW and I thought he should've won that decision..

I would love to catch Castillo in the -225 range but that's not happening.

I know nothing about Soto so this was a no play from the go, but I do really like McDonald and hope to see him catch a W, as he should.

I loved watching Brilz get domed by Matyushenko and hope to see it happen again, but Bader is also a highly fadable guy these days. No play for me.

[scofflaw]

Making a play on Stephen Bonnar...

Kingsbury lacks the cardio and well-roundedness to beat someone as experienced and tough as Bonnar.

Dude is super athletic but didn't really impress me enough against Fabio. He has good knees in the clinch but not much else

Agree. I've noticed a trend through a bunch of threads that we share a lot of the same opinions on fights. I don't think I've ever disagreed with anything I've seen you say.

Here are my picks for 139. I should make my own thread to log this stuff, but I figure I'm not good enough at capping to be influencing anyone. Meh.. here we go.

Faber - 10u
Kampmann - 3u
Silva - 1u
Bonner - .5u
Weidman -.5u
>.5 on Bader, Baczynski, RDA, McDonald, Hendo

Parlay (.5)
Faber, Weidman, Torres
Faber, Hendo, Torres.

Faber is my biggest play and he'll make or break the night. Bowles hasn't looked good in either of his UFC fights. I think Faber is better at everything and the price on him is a great.

I lean Kampmann because he's so technically sound and well rounded. His slow starts are a little worrying but I can't see Story beating Kampmann any other way than cage stalling ala Alves. I think Kampmann's grappling is too good for Story to be able to dictate the fight.

I'm don't really like Silva, I just need that action! lol. The deciding factor for me was simply experience. Silva has been in the cage with the best and Le is relatively inexperienced in MMA. Le throws loads of kicks with straight punches, compared to Silva's mostly wild looping strikes. Le's style looks awkward at times and I'm curious to see how he'll stack up against more relevant fighters. I'll take a wild guess and say I think Wand tags Le with a clean counter hook and drops him for the TKO... but I wouldn't be surprised if Le put the lights out with any solid connection.. I don't think it will be a kick though.

Might go bigger on Hendo.

I don't think I've ever liked so many underdogs in an event.. I'm a little worried

[Vaughany]

Kingsbu and Burt...

[Vaughany]

Both Sonnen and Florian picking Bonnar...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=O1T730YjCiA

[Vaughany]

Dos Anjos' time spent with Edgar and Munoz working on his wrestling could be the key. Wouldnt be surprised if he stuffs a lot of Tibau's takedown attempts and rocks him.

[The HOFF]

Dos Anjos' time spent with Edgar and Munoz working on his wrestling could be the key. Wouldnt be surprised if he stuffs a lot of Tibau's takedown attempts and rocks him.

He also handled Guida extremely well before he broke his jaw. Tibau was having some serious trouble with Rafaello Oliveira in his last fight. Dos Anjos is extremely underrated. If books want to keep giving him to me as a dog, I'll keep betting him.

[Vaughany]

ha shambles at the weigh-ins! GOod job this didnt happen last wknd!

[Vaughany]

Tibau will probably be 170 on these scales!

[Mr.Kitty]

Its time for the weigh in scientist Tom Lawlor!

[Vaughany]

ha Lawlor did Seagal! Clever shit

[Mr.Kitty]

ha Lawlor did Seagal! Clever shit

That was super duper! I mean...Seagal...thats badass! the genius behind the frontkick

[Mr.Kitty]

Gotta love Kingsbury´s fanny pack!

[Vaughany]

Bonnar is in great shape as well

[Vaughany]

hahahah the fatty arse-bumped Burt! This weigh-in is comedy!

[TheCalculator]

Pace looked drained, and had very low energy -- and he missed by 6 lbs -- lost 20% of his purse. Torres will rip through him.

[Vaughany]

Yeah but he also came in overweight against Campuzano and ended up choking him out! Torres is obviously a much tougher challenge tho

[Educ8d Degener8]

Only plays thus far...

0.50u Story by decision +160 --> I'm torn on this fight, but think this presents the best value
0.50u Bonnar by decision +320 --> considering adding more here
0.50u Torres -360, Faber -235, Cung Wandy not distance -400

Leaning Matt Brown, but need to watch footage -- Seen quite a few folks on Seth... ¿por qué? Perhaps the footage will turn me...

Also, leaning Hendo -- god he loves his right bomb, but if he doesn't utilize his wrestling here against Shogun's notoriously sh*tty TDD, I'll be severely disappointed. I'm hoping Hendo is more intent on cementing his legacy via significant (well strategized W's) as opposed to just engaging in slugfests...

Got some puppy love for Dos Anjos and Lawlor as well... more likely to put $ on Dos Anjos at this point.

[The HOFF]

The full weigh-in results included:

MAIN CARD (Pay-per-view)

• Dan Henderson (203) vs. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua (205)
• Cung Le (185) vs. Wanderlei Silva (185)
• Brian Bowles (136) vs. Urijah Faber (136)
• Martin Kampmann (170.5) vs. Rick Story (170.5)
• Stephan Bonnar (205) vs. Kyle Kingsbury (205)

PRELIMINARY CARD (Spike TV)

• Ryan Bader (205) vs. Jason Brilz (204)
• Michael McDonald (136) vs. Alex Soto (135)

PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook)

• Tom Lawlor (185) vs. Chris Weidman (185.5)
• Rafael dos Anjos (155.5) vs. Gleison Tibau (155)
• Nick Pace (141)+ vs. Miguel Torres (136)
• Seth Baczynski (171) vs. Matt Brown (171)
• Shamar Bailey (158)+ vs. Danny Castillo (155)

+ - Forfeits 20 percent of his purse for missing weight

[The HOFF]

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[The HOFF]

[Vitooch]

Only plays thus far...

0.50u Story by decision +160 --> I'm torn on this fight, but think this presents the best value
0.50u Bonnar by decision +320 --> considering adding more here
0.50u Torres -360, Faber -235, Cung Wandy not distance -400

Leaning Matt Brown, but need to watch footage -- Seen quite a few folks on Seth... ¿por qué? Perhaps the footage will turn me...

Also, leaning Hendo -- god he loves his right bomb, but if he doesn't utilize his wrestling here against Shogun's notoriously sh*tty TDD, I'll be severely disappointed. I'm hoping Hendo is more intent on cementing his legacy via significant (well strategized W's) as opposed to just engaging in slugfests...

Got some puppy love for Dos Anjos and Lawlor as well... more likely to put $ on Dos Anjos at this point.

Really liking all these plays...Bonnar by decision at +320 is pretty great value.
Bonnar/Kingsbury will be a war, but I see Kingsbury's lack of cardio the deciding factor in the result

[The HOFF]

[The HOFF]

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[The HOFF]