UFC 139: Hendo vs Shogun

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

just re-watching some of Wandy's fights and it looks like the first left hook he took from Leben caught him behind the ear, kind of like JDS over Cain. I do think people are making too much over his "glass chin". I also like his gas tank in the Bisping fight. Just adding some reason for me to make my play on Wand

[Vaughany]

[Vaughany]

It was and he gassed pretty badly in the Jones fight as well (which was after a long layoff too), otherwise he would have been able to put away an incredibly faded Jones. The third round really isn't his friend. Would be nice to know what the undisclosed injury was that knocked him out of his scheduled bout in August. Kind of a quick turn around to then fight in November.

Unless it was a cut, which is something he is very susceptible to (since you well know being that he isn't black)

oh and is injury was a Grade II tear of his medial collateral ligament (MCL). Just had it in a brace for six-weeks rather than surgery

[Vaughany]

Kampmann interview...

http://mmainterviews.tv/2011/11/07/martin-kampmann-talks-about-and-trains-for-rick-story-at-ufc-139/

[Vaughany]

Wanderlei Silva 139 camp part 1:

[Poppa Catfish]

oh and is injury was a Grade II tear of his medial collateral ligament (MCL). Just had it in a brace for six-weeks rather than surgery

Thanks bro. Sounds like round 3 is going to be brutal for a certain somebody.

[Poppa Catfish]

just re-watching some of Wandy's fights and it looks like the first left hook he took from Leben caught him behind the ear, kind of like JDS over Cain. I do think people are making too much over his "glass chin". I also like his gas tank in the Bisping fight. Just adding some reason for me to make my play on Wand

yep, another case of glass temple.

[dww123]

I'm on the other side, yes Silva is 2-4 but he's been fighting top fighters. Cung Le is 39 and his biggest win is over who frank Shamrock or Scott Smith . At +120 i have to take Silva and hope he's got a better game plan than running into Le's punches

Don't know who i'm picking on this one yet but Le's age of 39 shouldn't be a factor in anyone's breakdown whatsoever. In MMA years, he is much younger than Silva.

[bogbat]

Anyone else really like Kyle Kingsbury -130 over Stephan Bonner? I think Kingsbury is being undervalued after getting beat up in the 3rd round vs Fabio Maldonado. Kingsbury has a serious advantage in the athletic department here and his striking technique is improving with each and every fight.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Le's age of 39 shouldn't be a factor in anyone's breakdown whatsoever.

of course it should

[Vaughany]

Anyone else really like Kyle Kingsbury -130 over Stephan Bonner? I think Kingsbury is being undervalued after getting beat up in the 3rd round vs Fabio Maldonado. Kingsbury has a serious advantage in the athletic department here and his striking technique is improving with each and every thing.

His athletic prowess should be the difference but I can't count Bonnar out in this one. If Bonnar's line goes back up to +160 range I'll be considering a play on him. I'd be more comfortable playing Kingsbu by decision tho if I did play Kingsbury - how many guys have finished Bonnar? One of Kingsbu's main weapons is his knees in the clinch - going to be difficult to have same success with the Thai plum against Bonnar as he had against Romero and Maldonado as Bonnar is same height (if not bigger) as Kingsbu.

[Vaughany]

For anybody backing Kampmann like me, here is a copy of his blog. He mentions tweaking his knee (which he's had 3 surgeries on in past so is clearly an issue, and also how he had flu in October)....Just some things to consider.....


BLOG
NOVEMBER 10TH 2011

Training is going well. I’m working hard in the gym to get my shape up. I tweaked my knee a little bit which worried me initially but it feels a lot better so things are all good. With only a few weeks to go before my fight at UFC 139 with Rick Story, at this point it’s all about refining my skillset. Now is not the time to learn new moves; it’s time to focus on what I’m good at and sharpen my tools.

Obviously I’m biased on this topic since he’s my teammate at Xtreme Couture but I truly felt Jay Hieron beat Ben Askren last weekend at Bellator 56. At the same, I understand when you’re fighting a champion, especially in his home State, it’s gonna be hard to get the decision to go your way after a close contest. I think the outcome came down to the third round – I think Askren won #2 and #4 and Jay won #1 and #5. However, the third round was definitely close even though I think Jay took it. He may have been taken down but reversed him too and he did better standing, but, again, when you’re fighting the champ in his home State it’s tough to win over the judges’ favor in a close fight.

I’ve spoken some to Jay and, of course, it sucks to lose let alone like that. I’ve been there; a lot of people have been there. And especially when it’s a close fight like that where he knows he got the better of him. In the fifth round he completely dominated and put a beating on Askren. I just wish he could have performed like that in the four rounds prior. I know he wants a rematch but I’m not sure that will happen since Bellator is usually pretty tough on that front. I know Joe Warren has had some close fights too where people felt he shouldn’t have won but they didn’t give those guys rematches so the precedent is already there. I know I personally think he deserves another shot at Askren who himself even said he thought the decision could have gone either way. I’d love to see them fight again since it wasn’t just close but also an exciting fight as well. Good stuff without question.

I didn’t have a chance to see Hieron’s fight live since I was at the Mandalay Bay for UFC 137 but I made sure to stay away from Twitter to avoid results. I went straight home after the show to watch Bellator so it worked out well.

BJ Penn’s fight with Nick Diaz was great and it was cool to be at the show. There was a lot of energy in the arena. You really can’t beat being in attendance at a UFC event. The actual fight went the way I thought it would. I was rooting for BJ to win but I felt like Diaz’s size and pressure would tire BJ out in the later rounds, and it seems like that’s pretty much what happened. BJ won the first round, then he got tired or hurt and couldn’t handle Diaz’s pace. It was a terrific fight though.

I have no idea what Penn will do in the future but I will say I love to watch him fight, and I think he is still competitive at either 170 or 155 pounds. At the end of the day it’s up to him, and if he doesn’t have the fire anymore then he shouldn’t fight anymore, but if he still has it in him there are a lot of people who love seeing him in action and I’m one of them.

Finally, in case you’re wondering, my Halloween was actually pretty laid back. I pretty much trained and relaxed at home. I would have normally gone out but I’m 100% focused on my fight and Monday is a training night at Xtreme Couture. I’ll save my celebrating for the night of November 19th.

OCTOBER 26TH 2011

Training camp is going well. I was out for a couple of days with the flu though it’s better to get a little sick now than get it right before the fight. I have been training my butt off lately and now I’m really starting to get in great shape! I’m doing kickboxing with Ray Sefo in the mornings three days a week and I’m starting to feel sharp. I haven’t been very lucky with the decisions in my last fights so this time I’m not looking to go the distance. Knockout or submission, either way I’m coming in to finish the fight because I’m tired of judges giving me the short end of the stick.

[rocky mattioli]

as a big kampmann admirer who has already thrown down a wager on martin,i sure would have liked to hear that he`s working diligently on takedown defense instead of his kickboxing......if he`s on his back,the kickboxing tends to be a tad hindered....

[Vaughany]

as a big kampmann admirer who has already thrown down a wager on martin,i sure would have liked to hear that he`s working diligently on takedown defense instead of his kickboxing......if he`s on his back,the kickboxing tends to be a tad hindered....

ha yeah I'd like to hear tht too! I'm also hoping that he not only tries to defend the take-down but also attempts a takedown! Story's wrestling defense isn't as good as his offense. Although to be fair didn't Kampmann defend 13 out of 14 takedown attempts or something against Sanchez? I think the problem is more of him not circling away and instead backing up against the cage looking for the counter - as we saw with Alves against Story this strategy is only gonna get you on the wrong end of a decision against a guy like Story.

[rocky mattioli]

ha yeah I'd like to hear tht too! I'm also hoping that he not only tries to defend the take-down but also attempts a takedown! Story's wrestling defense isn't as good as his offense. Although to be fair didn't Kampmann defend 13 out of 14 takedown attempts or something against Sanchez? I think the problem is more of him not circling away and instead backing up against the cage looking for the counter - as we saw with Alves against Story this strategy is only gonna get you on the wrong end of a decision against a guy like Story.

excellent observation...and it seems like bad things happen to kampmann with his back against the cage...

[Nick The Greek]

Anyone else really like Kyle Kingsbury -130 over Stephan Bonner? I think Kingsbury is being undervalued after getting beat up in the 3rd round vs Fabio Maldonado. Kingsbury has a serious advantage in the athletic department here and his striking technique is improving with each and every fight.

Yes, I like Kingsbury very much in this fight. Especially since the line moved down on him, although it's already starting to move back up.

[Vaughany]

The Canchez vs Kampmann fight if anybody wants to view it again...

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xhd45m_diego-sanchez-vs-martin-kampmann_sport

[Vaughany]

[Vaughany]

Bonnar quote...

He’s a tough guy who can take a good punch and so can I. That’s our similarity,” said Bonnar (16-7).

The matchup between 6-feet-4-inch 205-pounders has three rounds of mutual carnage written all over it.

“Yes, I will be chasing a bonus; I’m going for Fight of the Night. I’m not going to fight a smart fight – I’m going to try to put people on the edge of their seats,” said Bonnar, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who has never been knocked out or submitted (his only two losses have been stoppages due to cuts). “I mean, if I can catch him in a submission then I’ll take that. But if I lose the fight, and get Fight of the Night, I’ll make more than if I just win the fight boringly so (laughs) … that’s part of my gameplan.”

[TheCalculator]

Bonnar quote...

T I’m not going to fight a smart fight – [/I]

I think it's smart to bet against guys who don't fight smart.

[NunyaBidness]

Last time Bonnar said this he fought the smartest boringest fight of his life.

[Vaughany]

Full odds out on Bookmaker....

UFC-139 PRELIMINARY MATCHUPS -LIVE ON SPIKETV -$250 LIMIT
5:15 PM
JASON BRILZ PK+250 - -
RYAN BADER PK-310 - -
5:15 PM
TOM LAWLOR PK+270 - -
CHRIS WEIDMAN PK-340 - -
2:30 PM
NICK PACE PK+280 - -
MIGUEL TORRES PK-350 - -
2:30 PM
RAFAEL DOS ANJOS PK+175 - -
GLEISON TIBAU PK-215 - -
2:30 PM
ALEX SOTO PK+325 - -
MICHAEL MCDONALD PK-425 - -
2:30 PM
SETH BACZYNSKI PK+165 - -
MATT BROWN PK-205 - -
2:30 PM
SHAMAR BAILEY PK+280 - -
DANNY CASTILLO PK-350 -

[Vaughany]

Expect Bailey ad Baczynski to get some action...really thought that Castillo would be better than -200 (and probably would have been had Nick not released the lines).

[The HOFF]

Just jumped on Baczynski +165 and Dos Anjos +175. I feel like I should play Pace and Bailey at +280 as well.

[poopoo333]

Baczynski looks good at that line

[Vaughany]

Just jumped on Baczynski +165 and Dos Anjos +175. I feel like I should play Pace and Bailey at +280 as well.

Worst case scenario you'll be able to arb out of Bailey - I think Castillo will end up -200 to -235 range

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

I like the price on Baczynski and Dos Anjos

[Vaughany]

What do people make of Shogun having is camp back in Brazil? I cant help but think surely after the success of the Forrest fight that it would make sense to continue in same vein...i.e training at Kings and Reign. Instead he's decided to go back to Sao Paulo and train there due to wanting to be close to his family. One could argue that this suggests is heart isn't totally in it maybe?

[Educ8d Degener8]

I can't believe I'm actually liking a Bailey play... (at current odds)

[Vaughany]

haha yeah I really didnt expect Castillo to be so heavily favoured. Should be closer to -250 IMO

[The HOFF]

What do people make of Shogun having is camp back in Brazil? I cant help but think surely after the success of the Forrest fight that it would make sense to continue in same vein...i.e training at Kings and Reign. Instead he's decided to go back to Sao Paulo and train there due to wanting to be close to his family. One could argue that this suggests is heart isn't totally in it maybe?

I think people are putting too much stock in the Griffin fight. I don't think Shogun looked particularly good, but was more just fighting an overmatched fighter who obviously didn't want to be there. I believe Shogun's best strategy is the same that he used in the first Machida fight. Leg kicks are SO underutilized and he has some of the best. Which ever camp has him working Muay Thai gives him the best chance (and I'm not really familiar with either). Henderson will mostly likely stand and throw bombs. Taking out Hendo's legs would be a great way to take him out of his game. Lastly, I'm still not convinced that Shogun is 100% healthy.

[Vaughany]

I think people are putting too much stock in the Griffin fight. I don't think Shogun looked particularly good, but was more just fighting an overmatched fighter who obviously didn't want to be there. I believe Shogun's best strategy is the same that he used in the first Machida fight. Leg kicks are SO underutilized and he has some of the best. Which ever camp has him working Muay Thai gives him the best chance (and I'm not really familiar with either). Henderson will mostly likely stand and throw bombs. Taking out Hendo's legs would be a great way to take him out of his game. Lastly, I'm still not convinced that Shogun is 100% healthy.

yeah Griffin didn't wanna be there at all...it's not like tht fight can be used to dispell the notion tht Shogun isn't fully fit and wont gas out in later rounds

[bjpenn85]

Dont you think a gamplan with a lot of legkicks against a KO machine like Hendo is a bit risky? Pluss, shoguns takedown defense is almost non existing, shouldnt shogun not throw kicks at all? I more and more lean towards hendo. It paid off last time

[ReBEL`LiON]

Bailey can take some shots. His stand up is decent. He has value.

I'm a fan of dos anjos and I think he will pull out the W aganist the much bigger Tibau.

Those are the two best bets for me..

As for the rest of the card, if i HAD to choose it would be:

kingsbury -140
kampman +110

I'm not a big fan of picking favorites in MMA unless I'm goign to parlay it with

[Fighter via decision +500] + [fighter -500] + [fighter -350] = big payout

[The HOFF]

Dont you think a gamplan with a lot of legkicks against a KO machine like Hendo is a bit risky? Pluss, shoguns takedown defense is almost non existing, shouldnt shogun not throw kicks at all? I more and more lean towards hendo. It paid off last time

Oh I'm already on Hendo for a decent sized bet. I'm just saying I think the best strategy for Shogun is distance and leg kicks. Hendo really hasn't used his wrestling so I don't think Shogun will be to worried about TDD. And Hendo uses more clinch takedowns and not traditional double and single legs. I don't like that for Hendo either because that will expose him to the Muay Thai clinch easier. I really see this as a stand up fight only.