UFC on FOX 1 by Uncle Gabe

**proposition joe** · 11-09-11, 09:59 AM

I like all of your picks except for Clay. Good luck

**Vaughany** · 11-09-11, 10:05 AM

Originally posted by gabe

I wasn't gonna, but- to hell with it...

Cain Velasquez -180 (so far I have to win $100 at -175 and to win $100 at -180. will be adding after i make some money off other fights.)

I don't see JDS winning this fight in any way. He isn't going to be able to knock CV out. He just isn't. He wasn't able to put Carwin away, and Kongo wasn't able to put CV away. It's the kinda simple math that's helped me many times over. When it comes to the stand-up, I am confident in CV. He will be as good or better than JDS on the feet, but chances are he will take it to the ground and dominate there. I think this is a solid play.

Clay Guida +170 (hate the line I'm getting, going to wait til fight time to bet)

It would be silly of me to count out Clay Guida. I love getting him at plus money, especially against fighters I could see him beating. Clay Guida was an unbelievable performer when he first stepped into the octagon, and he has improved with every single performance since. Forget battle, the guy always comes out to war. He is a very smart guy and great at studying + preparing for his opponents. He was amazing against Pettis, who has beat Hendo, and he will be even better now, so there is no way I will not take him at + money. He knows all the ways Hendo will try to dominate the fight, and I'm sure he is preparing to counter all that. I am literally betting my money on it.

Pablo Garza +240 (going to see if this line improves too)

Garza should not be this big a dog, this line is a steal. I think this is an even fight, but am confident Garza will pull through with the victory. This is another guy who just keeps getting better and better. In other words, I'm taking the guy who finished his last two fights over the guy who took a decision in his last two. I think Garza wins this fight inside the distance, though if it goes the distance, I still see him taking it. Big play for me. SCARECROW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!

Alex Caceres +235 (waiting on line improvement here, as well)

This is Bruce Leeroy's Bantamweight debut. I predict he gives Cole Escovedo his walking papers and earns himself a spot in the UFC's bantamweight division.

DaMarques Johnson -270

If you could take him winning by submission, that's what I would do. That is the most likely outcome. I could see Harvison getting a KO or winning a decision. I could see DaMarques taking a decision, too. If these guys fight 5 times, 3 out of those 5, DaMarques wins via submission. Other 2, anything could happen. I'm liking DaMarques' chances, so I will be making a play on him.

Robert Peralta +110

He is out to prove himself to the UFC. He wants to make a statement that he is here to stay, and with an impressive victory here, he will do just that. This guy knows how to prepare for his opponents. He's gonna show up with a solid game plan, and he's gonna put it to good use.

Ricardo Lamas -120

This was the toughest to pick. Cub Swanson could win by submission or grind out a decision. I don't think he will, though. Lamas should show good guillotine defense, if it comes to that. It would be interesting if this became a jiu-jitsu fight. I hope he becomes an underdog by fight time. I can see Lamas knocking him out, submitting him, or taking a decision. This fight could go either way inside the distance and either way if it goes to a decision, so it's kinda scary, but I feel Lamas' chances are just a little bit better, so I am siding with him. I have a feeling that whoever wins is going to win in a very impressive fashion, and I kinda feel like that's gonna be Ricardo Lamas.

What have you seen that makes you think Lamas will "show good guillotine defense"?

**ghost kid** · 11-09-11, 01:58 PM

Cain -180? Terrible line. Worst I've seen anywhere. You should be able to do better. It's only Wednesday.

**Vaughany** · 11-09-11, 01:59 PM

Guida at +170 is worse...daylight robbery!!!

**NunyaBidness** · 11-09-11, 01:59 PM

He can't do better. He bets with a local. The luckiest local in the world.

**gabe** · 11-09-11, 03:10 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

What have you seen that makes you think Lamas will "show good guillotine defense"?

What I've seen? Nothing. It's a feeling I've got and an assumption I'm making. He's a jiu-jitsu guy and I'm sure he knows Cub Swanson is really good with his guillotine, so I'm sure he's put in more hours than usual working on his guillotine defense, not to say he had a weak one to begin with. That's how I would see any talented jiu-jitsu fighter preparing for this bout. Can't leave holes open in your game, especially if they're holes that your opponent can find easily.

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

He can't do better. He bets with a local. The luckiest local in the world.

...And the hater keeps talking shit. I've won almost every single week I've been with this book, so go perform oral on yourself, son. Just assume all my picks are losing and don't even click onto my threads, you low life.

**gabe** · 11-09-11, 03:13 PM

Originally posted by ghost kid

Cain -180? Terrible line. Worst I've seen anywhere. You should be able to do better. It's only Wednesday.

It was at -160 for a week or so, and then dropped to -175, so I hit it in case it dropped further. Hours later, it was -180, and I hit it again. It's still at -180.

**Vitooch** · 11-09-11, 03:14 PM

Guida at +170 is god-awful

**gabe** · 11-09-11, 03:18 PM

Originally posted by Vitooch

Guida at +170 is god-awful

I know, that's why I'm waiting 'til fight-time to bet, hoping it'll be AT LEAST +200. The Guida fight has been up for a few weeks now, and it's been +170 the entire time. Weird. He became a bigger dog on online books, but stayed the same with mine.

**Vitooch** · 11-09-11, 03:21 PM

I really don't see Guida winning this fight, and would not take him at anything lower than +250. You're better off taking Guida by decision. No chance he finishes Bendo, atleast that's what I think. But hey, it's your pick and not mine.

**Vaughany** · 11-09-11, 03:26 PM

If he Guida finishes Henderson I will declare Gabe the greatest gambler on the planet.

**gabe** · 11-09-11, 03:31 PM

Originally posted by Vitooch

I really don't see Guida winning this fight, and would not take him at anything lower than +250. You're better off taking Guida by decision. No chance he finishes Bendo, atleast that's what I think. But hey, it's your pick and not mine.

I don't have the option to make that bet, so I just have to bet straight. I can see him winning inside the distance, though. Wouldn't rule it out. Anything can happen in this fight.

**Vitooch** · 11-09-11, 04:23 PM

Originally posted by gabe

I don't have the option to make that bet, so I just have to bet straight. I can see him winning inside the distance, though. Wouldn't rule it out. Anything can happen in this fight.

"Anything can happen in this fight"? Sure, anything could happen in every fight. Rampage could have submitted Jon Jones with a gogoplata, but would you make a Rampage wins by sub prop bet because "anything could happen"? The fact of the matter is, Bendo has better standup BJJ, and is bigger, stronger and more athletic than Guida.

Guida's best chance of winning this fight will be taking down Bendo and holding him down dear life for three rounds, which is very unlikely considering that mentioned athletic difference.

How could you possibly see Guida finishing this fight? Standing? GnP? Submission?

**gabe** · 11-09-11, 04:37 PM

Originally posted by Vitooch

"Anything can happen in this fight"? Sure, anything could happen in every fight. Rampage could have submitted Jon Jones with a gogoplata, but would you make a Rampage wins by sub prop bet because "anything could happen"? The fact of the matter is, Bendo has better standup BJJ, and is bigger, stronger and more athletic than Guida.

Guida's best chance of winning this fight will be taking down Bendo and holding him down dear life for three rounds, which is very unlikely considering that mentioned athletic difference.

How could you possibly see Guida finishing this fight? Standing? GnP? Submission?

There's 0% I see Rampage submitting Jon Jones. I just can't see it happening. I can totally see Clay Guida submitting Bendo. It's not likely that he will, but I would not be surprised in the least if that's how Guida won the fight.

I agree with everything you've said. I agree that Bendo is better in every way, except for movement. Guida's best chances of winning this fight are exactly what you described. He might have a different game plan, though, I don't know. I never know what to expect from Clay Guida. He has surprised me so many times, and in this fight, he's more motivated than he's ever been, so I won't be surprised if he surprises me again. Wait...

I think Guida has about a 40% chance of winning this fight, and at + money, considering his motivation, continuous improvement, and great gameplanning, I am not afraid to pull the trigger.

**Vaughany** · 11-09-11, 04:39 PM

Originally posted by Vitooch

"Anything can happen in this fight"? Sure, anything could happen in every fight. Rampage could have submitted Jon Jones with a gogoplata, but would you make a Rampage wins by sub prop bet because "anything could happen"? The fact of the matter is, Bendo has better standup BJJ, and is bigger, stronger and more athletic than Guida.

Guida's best chance of winning this fight will be taking down Bendo and holding him down dear life for three rounds, which is very unlikely considering that mentioned athletic difference.

How could you possibly see Guida finishing this fight? Standing? GnP? Submission?

Moreover, even if Guida thinks he can sub Hendo, as Dominick Cruz pointed out in his breakdown with Atencio - Guida's team (i.e Jackson) will probably instruct him to not take any chances and ensure that top position is maintained and that he doesnt end up on the bottom (i.e looking for a guillotine against Hendo is more than likely going to lead to you wasting energy and ending up with Bendo on top of you which is the one position Jackson won't want Guida to be in!).

**Vitooch** · 11-09-11, 04:40 PM

Originally posted by gabe

There's 0% I see Rampage submitting Jon Jones. I just can't see it happening. I can totally see Clay Guida submitting Bendo. It's not likely that he will, but I would not be surprised in the least if that's how Guida won the fight.

I agree with everything you've said. I agree that Bendo is better in every way, except for movement. Guida's best chances of winning this fight are exactly what you described. He might have a different game plan, though, I don't know. I never know what to expect from Clay Guida. He has surprised me so many times, and in this fight, he's more motivated than he's ever been, so I won't be surprised if he surprises me again. Wait...

I think Guida has about a 40% chance of winning this fight, and at + money, considering his motivation, continuous improvement, and great gameplanning, I am not afraid to pull the trigger.

Well then I guess that's where we will stop agreeing. I give a 20-25% chance

**Vitooch** · 11-09-11, 04:46 PM

What Guida win have you seen where he didn't grapplefuck his opponent?

He gets outstruck in nearly every fight and always resorts to the same wrestling based stratedy, as he should.

He won't be able to do so against Bendo, and if the fight stays standing, Guida will get punished or taken down.

**gabe** · 11-09-11, 04:48 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Moreover, even if Guida thinks he can sub Hendo, as Dominick Cruz pointed out in his breakdown with Atencio - Guida's team (i.e Jackson) will probably instruct him to not take any chances and ensure that top position is maintained and that he doesnt end up on the bottom (i.e looking for a guillotine against Hendo is more than likely going to lead to you wasting energy and ending up with Bendo on top of you which is the one position Jackson won't want Guida to be in!).

If he gets Bendo's back and see's an opportunity for a rear naked choke, he's taking it. Also, he's got a good guillotine, so if he see's an opportunity for a good hold, I'm sure he'll go for it. He won't risk it on a half-assed one most fighters gas their arms out on.

Originally posted by Vitooch

Well then I guess that's where we will stop agreeing. I give a 20-25% chance

I would bet Bendo if I liked him for 75%.

Bendo is great, but he is being way over hyped. Guida's chances are better than what you all think. Bendo can be beat, and Guida can beat him. MMA is this guys life. He eats, breathes, and sleeps MMA. He's driven. He wants his titleshot. He will be ready for Henderson.

**gabe** · 11-09-11, 04:51 PM

Originally posted by Vitooch

What Guida win have you seen where he didn't grapplefuck his opponent?

He gets outstruck in nearly every fight and always resorts to the same wrestling based stratedy, as he should.

He won't be able to do so against Bendo, and if the fight stays standing, Guida will get punished or taken down.

I've seen him outstrike opponents, thanks to his fast pace and movement. I'm interested to see how he moves in this next fight, and how Bendo deals with it...

It would be funny if Guida is jumping around like a monkey and Bendo just lands a straight kick to the chin knocking him out lol

**Vaughany** · 11-09-11, 04:55 PM

Originally posted by gabe

If he gets Bendo's back and see's an opportunity for a rear naked choke, he's taking it.

I would bet Bendo if I liked him for 75%.

Bendo is great, but he is being way over hyped. Guida's chances are better than what you all think. Bendo can be beat, and Guida can beat him. MMA is this guys life. He eats, breathes, and sleeps MMA. He will be ready for Henderson.

Same with Henderson so that isn't really a substantial argument for why Guida can win! All Benson Henderson does is train and preach about the Lord Almighty...he doesn't drink, doesn't go to clubs! If you said something a long the lines of...Guida has a better camp with more high-level experienced fighters, including Donald Cerrone who has fought Henderson twice before and knows his weaknesses then that would of been a more rational argument.

**sideloaded** · 11-09-11, 05:00 PM

I like how gabe uses mmath to break down fights. Super solid logic at work.

**gabe** · 11-09-11, 05:12 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Same with Henderson so that isn't really a substantial argument for why Guida can win! All Benson Henderson does is train and preach about the Lord Almighty...he doesn't drink, doesn't go to clubs! If you said something a long the lines of...Guida has a better camp with more high-level experienced fighters, including Donald Cerrone who has fought Henderson twice before and knows his weaknesses then that would of been a more rational argument.

Except I wasn't making an argument and was giving my thoughts on the fight.

I did say he is great at studying + preparing for his opponents, so while I did not give you bulletpoints on exactly how he studies and prepares for them, I think I did get the point across.

PS- Guida lives out of his RV and gyms. I know Bendo is dedicated to the sport, too, as are a lot of fighters, but Guida is just a notch higher in that department.

**gabe** · 11-09-11, 05:12 PM

Originally posted by sideloaded

I like how gabe uses mmath to break down fights. Super solid logic at work.

Gotta be super solid if it's gotten me to hit 20 out of 20 of my locks, right? 6 of 6 of which I have proof of.

Thanks, bro. I knew you'd come around.

**sideloaded** · 11-09-11, 05:18 PM

Originally posted by gabe

Gotta be super solid if it's gotten me to hit 20 out of 20 of my locks, right? 6 of 6 of which I have proof of.

Thanks, bro. I knew you'd come around.

Wow 6 of 6 with large money lines? How does vegas stay in business with this information public? Your sample size is impressive I must say.

**gabe** · 11-09-11, 05:25 PM

Originally posted by sideloaded

Wow 6 of 6 with large money lines? How does vegas stay in business with this information public? Your sample size is impressive I must say.

It's lame when I give a lock that's -210, but it's great when Big Day gives a lock thats -265? LOL GTFO

Let me see you go 6 for 6 with picks in the 200-300 range

**sideloaded** · 11-09-11, 05:27 PM

Originally posted by gabe

It's lame when I give a lock that's -210, but it's great when Big Day gives a lock thats -265? LOL GTFO

Let me see you go 6 for 6 with picks in the 200-300 range

Math isn't your strong suit is it? WTF is a big day?

**gabe** · 11-09-11, 05:30 PM

Originally posted by sideloaded

Math isn't your strong suit is it? WTF is a big day?

You don't belong on this forum if you don't know WHO Big Day is.

And no, I'm terrible at math. I don't even remember basic algebra. But that's completely irrelevant.

**sideloaded** · 11-09-11, 05:31 PM

Originally posted by gabe

You don't belong on this forum if you don't know WHO Big Day is.

And no, I'm terrible at math. I don't even remember basic algebra.

Yeah ok you're telling people who belongs here now? and you registered in September? I've read it all from you. You're special person with special needs. I can't continue to converse with you.

**gabe** · 11-09-11, 05:35 PM

Originally posted by sideloaded

Yeah ok you're telling people who belongs here now? and you registered in September? I've read it all from you. You're special person with special needs. I can't continue to converse with you.

Yes, I'm saying if you have 1,800 posts and don't know who Big Day is, you're too dumb to belong here.

But I don't know, maybe you fit right in.

**sideloaded** · 11-09-11, 05:37 PM

How much does Big Day pay you to ride his dick all day?

**gabe** · 11-09-11, 07:24 PM

Originally posted by sideloaded

How much does Big Day pay you to ride his dick all day?

He pays via oral sex provided by one of his employees, your mother.

**Kaladarus** · 11-09-11, 07:29 PM

Wow good luck Gabe it seems like I got very similar plays. Hopefully it's a good night for you.

**Kaladarus** · 11-09-11, 07:31 PM

Also sign up with 5dimes or get a sportsbook that has better lines.

**omalley21** · 11-09-11, 08:38 PM

Picks look good but I disagree on guida as well. Good luck on the rest.