Picks for UFC Fight Night 25 BOTB

[gabe]

Here are my picks, including a half-assed write-up.



UFC Fight Night 25 Matchup - Cody McKenzie +140

I think Cody should be a bigger underdog. Everybody thinks Rocha is going to win this fight. Rocha is confident that he's going to win, too. He doesn't take Cody seriously. I don't think Cody will be able to trap him in a guillotine, but I think he's gonna find a way to knock him out, and get respect.


UFC Fight Night 25 Matchup - Evan Dunham -425

My biggest lock of the year. My last two biggest locks of the year (Ivan Menjivar and Edson Barboza) barely won, but this one won't be as close. Dunham will dominate.


UFC Fight Night 25 Matchup - Ken Stone -160

I've been loving Ken Stone all along, and I am pissed I didn't place my bet a few hours ago when the line was much better. Seeing Donny Walker walk out (at the weigh-ins) with that backwards-cap wearing TUF reject Mac Danzig hated made me feel more confident in Stone. lol


UFC Fight Night 25 Matchup - Seth Baczynski -165

I see him winning inside the distance. May go to a decision, but I think he's gonna make Harvison tap.


UFC Fight Night 25 Matchup - Anthony "T.J." Waldburger -260

He should finish Stumpf early. I'm hitting this big.


UFC Fight Night 25 Matchup - Mike Lullo +125

This is a really tough match-up for Mike Lullo, but I think he will find a way to get a submission.


UFC Fight Night 25 Matchup - Court McGee -175

This feels like a lock, too. The line's gone up, but I still love it. Hitting it big.


UFC Fight Night 25 Matchup - Jonathan Brookins +150

Everybody is on Koch. Koch is on Koch. The guy is an incredible fighter. I could see him winning this fight. But he won't. After the first round, when he realizes he can't do what he wants to do against Brookins, he is going to be aggravated. Brookins is going to capitalize. I can see Brookins just breaking this guy down. I think this is going to be Brookins by submission or decision.

UFC Fight Night 25 Matchup - Alan Belcher -285

Easy money.


UFC Fight Night 25 Matchup - Jake Ellenberger +160

I liked Ellenberger a lot more before Shields' old man passed. Not gonna back off, though. Not betting as big as I would have, but I'm defintely taking Ellenberger.

[BIGDAY]

GL, I like Stone. Got him at -130

But Cody does not find his hand raised....

[ghost kid]

That's a lot of picks for one card. Could get ugly. Units?

Koch is going to dummy Brookins.

[gabe]

That's a lot of picks for one card. Could get ugly. Units?

Koch is going to dummy Brookins.

Yeah, I think it's the most picks I've had on one card.

I don't really keep track of units. I keep track of my money week-to-week. This week, I'm down about a grand, thanks to NCAA games that didn't break the over. Did great in MLB, though.

So far my biggest fight night bet is $850 to win $200 on Dunham. I'm gonna be adding to it. Also going big on TJ, Belcher, and Stone. I'm considering parlaying the 4.

I often feel more confidence and add to bets while the fighters are walking out. That's when my gut starts talking to me more. That's when I'll decide if I should pound Brookins or Ellenberger more.

[gabe]

I'm feeling more and more confident in Seth Baczynski, too.

[NunyaBidness]

I'm feeling more and more confident in Seth Baczynski, too.

The correlation coefficient of your growing confidence to my lessening confidence is 1.

[gabe]

The correlation coefficient of your growing confidence to my lessening confidence is 1.

Clay COULD catch him with a hook, but I don't think he will. Seth takes it in the distance. If it goes to a decision, he should take it.

[Vaughany]

hmm interesting outlook on the Rocha fight, I doubt many think McKenzie has much KO power

[gabe]

hmm interesting outlook on the Rocha fight, I doubt many think McKenzie has much KO power

He hasn't shown evidence of possessing any one-punch knock out power, that's for sure. He can throw some nice kicks and combinations, though. I've heard from a friend who saw him training that his kickboxing has improved.

I'm not confident on this, though, that is why it is only a small bet. I just feel iffy about the line. Cody should be more like +200.

[NunyaBidness]

He hasn't shown evidence of possessing any one-punch knock out power, that's for sure. He can throw some nice kicks and combinations, though. I've heard from a friend who saw him training that his kickboxing has improved.

I'm not confident on this, though, that is why it is only a small bet. I just feel iffy about the line. Cody should be more like +200.

This doesn't make any sense. You're trolling right?

If you think he should be +200, then why are you betting him on the current line?

[Vaughany]

Yeah seems to be the opposite to how most people pull the trigger on a play!?

[jacktheknife]

UFC Fight Night 25 Matchup - Jonathan Brookins +150

Everybody is on Koch. Koch is on Koch. The guy is an incredible fighter. I could see him winning this fight. But he won't. After the first round, when he realizes he can't do what he wants to do against Brookins, he is going to be aggravated. Brookins is going to capitalize. I can see Brookins just breaking this guy down. I think this is going to be Brookins by submission or decision.

Brookins just catapulted to +190 and I put a few points on him.

[gabe]

Just made a little $50 parlay w/ Dunham, Waldburger, Belcher, Baczynski, Stone, and McGee.

[gabe]

I am feeling really confident about Mike Lullo. Line is down to +110. I'm doubling, maybe even tripling down on him. My book doesn't offer props, but I would bet he finishes this with a submission inside the distance.

[Vaughany]

Brookins just catapulted to +190 and I put a few points on him.

It's been that high for hours, I got him at +196 earlier, and then he reached +201 on pinnacle at one point

[jacktheknife]

It's been that high for hours, I got him at +196 earlier, and then he reached +201 on pinnacle at one point

Well not just now, but you know. Cool, so you're on him too.

[v1y]

how the **** is brookins +200. shit makes no sense. this is a 50/50 fight. brookins is an elite level wrestler, and koch has serious knockout power. what has koch shown to make people think he can stay off the ground here?

[gabe]

This doesn't make any sense. You're trolling right?

If you think he should be +200, then why are you betting him on the current line?

Just because I think he should be considered a bigger underdog doesn't mean I think he's going to lose. What's the matter with you?

[gabe]

Yeah seems to be the opposite to how most people pull the trigger on a play!?

It's not really about who SHOULD win. It's about who WILL win.

[gabe]

My book is offering +170 for Brookins. Their lines are usually better with favorites and suck with dogs. Been with this book a month now.

[illmatick]

It's not really about who SHOULD win. It's about who WILL win.

More Ovaltine please.

[ghost kid]

Jesus has some real competition.

[jacktheknife]

how the **** is brookins +200. shit makes no sense. this is a 50/50 fight. brookins is an elite level wrestler, and koch has serious knockout power. what has koch shown to make people think he can stay off the ground here?

Ehhhh, he looked ok for awhile against Mendes. And Mendes is Mendes. But he left himself pretty vertical when he was going for strikes. Got tipped over early and often.

Plus Brookins is a giant next to Chad.

[Vaughany]

Plus Brookins is a giant next to Chad.

What do you mean?

[Vaughany]

Well not just now, but you know. Cool, so you're on him too.

Not really, just got an arb with him at +196 and Koch at -175, will make profit either way, bit more if Koch wins

[Vaughany]

how the **** is brookins +200. shit makes no sense. this is a 50/50 fight. brookins is an elite level wrestler, and koch has serious knockout power. what has koch shown to make people think he can stay off the ground here?

I agree shouldnt be this high. People are just high on Koch having two KO of the Nights in a row and Brookins having mediocre defence I guess. As you point out, whether he can stay off the ground enough is the key and will be interesting to see

[Vaughany]

Plus Brookins is a giant next to Chad.

What do you mean?

Im being retarded, I know what u mean...height wise!

[illmatick]

I think you guys may be underestimating Koch's hip strength. We'll see.

I have a few small parlays with Koch, I like the over 2.5 rounds as well as a semi-hedge.

[jacktheknife]

What do you mean?

Half a foot taller and eight inches deeper. As I recall, Brookins likes the clinch TD. That high point of mass and long limbs to wrap around the guy might go a good way to make up for the deficit in skill to duplicate Mendes' success.

[ghost kid]

I think you guys may be underestimating Koch's hip strength. We'll see.

Agree.

[gabe]

Damn, I'm liking Cody even more now... gonna lay a little more down on him. I don't think Rocha is going to be able to submit him, which I feel would be his most likely route to victory.

[Vaughany]

Damn, I'm liking Cody even more now... gonna lay a little more down on him. I don't think Rocha is going to be able to submit him, which I feel would be his most likely route to victory.

Vagner's BJJ is on another level to Cody's, I think he has a decent chance of a rear-naked or armbar finish, similar to the Jacob Clark fight. Cody should be fighting at 145 as well, he barely cuts any weight. Problem is Cody is wild and aggressive which means it will be easier for Vagner to get to the ground where he's comfortable, unlike Cerrone who was smart and technical.

[gabe]

Saw Justin Edwards walking out with tears in his eyes and my gut told me to put a little something on him. $36 to win $100 --- nice start.

[Vaughany]

People are gonna hammer u for posting picks after the fight has happened! Ur not doing yourself any favours!

[illmatick]

Saw Justin Edwards walking out with tears in his eyes and my gut told me to put a little something on him. $36 to win $100 --- nice start.

Ovaltine!!