Anybody going big on Dos Santos?

[Jordan23]

With Carwin coming off of surgery and having lost a considerable amount of weight anybody feeling good about Dos Santos? I really feel like anything better than -200 for Dos Santos is a solid play. The line seems to be getting closer and closer which is leading me to believe that a lot of people are really buying into Carwin's "new diet" and "more explosiveness".

The line is now down to -165 on 5dimes which is leading me to believe it might only get closer and closer. I'm thinking about going big on Dos Santos straight up and hedge it with Carwin by KO. Which is Carwin's only way to win this fight in my opinion. Carwin hasn't displayed the type of wrestling ability in mixed martial arts which leads me to believe that he could grind out a decision. I also don't think he has the cardio where he could grind out a decision. He does have the power where he could get a takedown and pound somebody out... But I feel if he takes Dos Santos down then Dos Santos will spring right back to his feet. I see Carwin definitely trying to work the clinch and look for some big uppercuts like he did in the Mir fight....

Unfortunately I feel Dos Santos is going to be smart enough to circle away from the cage and use his footwork and hand speed (which are a lot better than Carwin's) to negate the clinch. And even if Carwin does get the clinch I don't think it's going to be as easy to press Junior against the cage.

Anybody have a similar thoughts?

[clarkd32]

i would say either carwin by ko or dos santos inside distance.

no way this fight goes the distance.

good luck

[jesuseatsnubs]

Carwin is gonna beat Dos Santos .. he looks healthy and I think no one in the UFC has the RAW physical power that that Carwin has when it comes to his punches .. not only that .. but Carwin also has Wrestling which could help him a lot .

If Carwin gets a hold of Dos Santos and puts him against the cage and throw a variety of punches at him .. It's good night Dos Santos and he could win it in round 1 .

If Dos Santos survives his punches in Round 1 .. he will be very very beaten and worn down in Round 2 .. so my prediction is .. Carwin will finish Dos Santos in Round 1 or 2 by KO/TKO ..

If this was against Brock Lesnar .. I would be telling you to go ALL IN on Dos Santos .. but Carwin is STRONG .. Healthier then ever before .. and has a very good diet and has lost 30 pounds so far which will give him a boost in speed .. Stamina and his Gas tank should be greatly improved .. keep in mind he is coming in being HEALTHY and ready to go at 100 % .


this is just my opinion though .. but just saying don't go betting a lot on Dos Santos .. Shane Carwin is no joke .. especially a healthy Shane Carwin .

[urge2kill]

Wonder how much of that power Carwin has left now that he dropped 30 lbs of roid muscle?

[Jordan23]

Wonder how much of that power Carwin has left now that he dropped 30 lbs of roid muscle?

I have been thinking the same thing. It won't be the same power as before.

[kmdubya]

Dos Santos is the better boxer, but Carwin (still) has unreal power. I'm taking Carwin because he's been training more wrestling in camp, and Dos Santos takedown defence is questionable. I see this fight going the same way as Mir/Carwin did. Clinch to the cage, short punches, and good night.

[RaiderNation MMA]

very even fight im leaning carwin tho becasue of the wrestling ability he has that junior doesnt

[bogbat]

Carwin is gonna beat Dos Santos .. he looks healthy and I think no one in the UFC has the RAW physical power that that Carwin has when it comes to his punches .. not only that .. but Carwin also has Wrestling which could help him a lot . If Carwin gets a hold of Dos Santos and puts him against the cage and throw a variety of punches at him .. It's good night Dos Santos and he could win it in round 1 . If Dos Santos survives his punches in Round 1 .. he will be very very beaten and worn down in Round 2 .. so my prediction is .. Carwin will finish Dos Santos in Round 1 or 2 by KO/TKO .. If this was against Brock Lesnar .. I would be telling you to go ALL IN on Dos Santos .. but Carwin is STRONG .. Healthier then ever before .. and has a very good diet and has lost 30 pounds so far which will give him a boost in speed .. Stamina and his Gas tank should be greatly improved .. keep in mind he is coming in being HEALTHY and ready to go at 100 % . this is just my opinion though .. but just saying don't go betting a lot on Dos Santos .. Shane Carwin is no joke .. especially a healthy Shane Carwin .

I think its very hard to predict how his gas tank will be. The only time we've seen him out of round 1 he was completely gassed. Sure shedding some weight should help, and in his defense he did throw everything he had trying to finish Lesnar which would have been a huge factor in gassing. However, until he see him go deeper into fights for all we know he may be one of those guys that has little to no control over his sympathetic nervous system and will continue to have an adrenalin dump and gas himself out.

I want to put a wager on this fight mainly just for action but I haven't decided which way to go yet.

[Poppa Catfish]

I'm going to continue fading the person coming off surgery, seems to be working rather well as of late, especially with these matchups that seem fairly even. It isn't like I'm 100% sold on Dos Santos, just with the surgery and the drastic weight loss (edit not to mention the turning a shade of blue last seen in Willy Wonka and gassing super hard) something seems off with Carwin. I will take Dos Santos inside the distance, probably small to medium play.

[GunShard]

I want to know if Carwin fixed his cardio endurance problem.

[Straight Cash]

I like jds a lot in this one.

[rocky mattioli]

I'm going to continue fading the person coming off surgery, seems to be working rather well as of late, especially with these matchups that seem fairly even. It isn't like I'm 100% sold on Dos Santos, just with the surgery and the drastic weight loss (edit not to mention the turning a shade of blue last seen in Willy Wonka and gassing super hard) something seems off with Carwin. I will take Dos Santos inside the distance, probably small to medium play.

agree,poppa...


i have dos santos in several pars.....one thing worries me,though.....it`s santos` penchant for throwing uppercuts from the outside with his left hand down...that`s a no-no in boxing(but it hasn`t bitten jr on the ass up to this point).......that coupled with carwin`s arrow straight right over the top scares me a bit....carwin`s punches are much straighter....but,as you said,man,that cardio...

dos santos is on such a roll.... and he has very quick feet for a big man...i can see him turning carwin....making him continually reset until he catches him

fantastic card,imo...

[Poppa Catfish]

agree,poppa...


i have dos santos in several pars.....one thing worries me,though.....it`s santos` penchant for throwing uppercuts from the outside with his left hand down...that`s a no-no in boxing(but it hasn`t bitten jr on the ass up to this point).......that coupled with carwin`s arrow straight right over the top scares me a bit....carwin`s punches are much straighter....but,as you said,man,that cardio...

dos santos is on such a roll.... and he has very quick feet for a big man...i can see him turning carwin....making him continually reset until he catches him

fantastic card,imo...

Yep, he also kind of looms forward with his hands down as well. I wouldn't be shocked at all if a straight punch crumples Dos Santos, in fact I rather think he has it coming, but I believe (maybe wrongly) that I am on the right side of this one.

[corcoran65]

i really think jds to win hedged wth carwin by KO is the best play

[Ladle]

i really think jds to win hedged wth carwin by KO is the best play

Yup. Or for a bigger return, JDS outright hedged with Carwin wins KO of the Night.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

I like JDS, based on how tired Carwin was in the 2nd round against Lesnar JDS will keep him at a distance in the 1st, maybe take it to him in the later rounds

[Beelzebubzy]

JDS was tired in his fight with Nelson in the third round and He was getting tagged pretty easily.

[sweepem]

If Dos Santos can stop his takedowns it's only a matter of time until Carwin goes to sleep.

But can he stop them?

We haven't seen much of his wrestling/takedown defense so far.

[rocky mattioli]

JDS was tired in his fight with Nelson in the third round and He was getting tagged pretty easily.

tough to gauge given that it was such a hard fight.....and that carwin hasn`t seen the 3 minute mark of round 2 yet himself(and santos has only been out of round 1 twice in his career).......but point taken...

cardio is a definite ???

prop lines on this one will probably be very pricey...

[omalley21]

Carwin isn't gonna look great in this fight coming off surgery and long layoff. His gameplan will be takedowns though which makes me apprehensive to bet JDS. JDS by tko is likely. Taking them both to get KO of the night seems solid too.

[sirchadwick1]

Carwin isn't gonna look great in this fight coming off surgery and long layoff. His gameplan will be takedowns though which makes me apprehensive to bet JDS. JDS by tko is likely. Taking them both to get KO of the night seems solid too.

I'm a little worried in taking them both with KOTN, as I can see either guy getting a TKO by rocking the other.

Best play imo is to take JDS straight up as large as you like... and hedge with Carwin by (T)KO to be safe.

[nyed1010]

the fight will end in a draw. book it.

[sirchadwick1]

the fight will end in a draw. book it.

Hilarious! Fight ending in a draw should be at like +8000 so empty your acct on it if you're confident lol.

[ghost kid]

Yup. Or for a bigger return, JDS outright hedged with Carwin wins KO of the Night.

This is a bit more risky because of the undercard possibilities at 131.

When Browne KO'ed Struve, it was a pretty solid KO of the night play (someone on the board mentioned the violent and silly ways Struve falls to the ground - and it was proven true).

Stann was the only other possibility that night.

But here several possibilities exist for KO of the night:

Carwin or JDS (either winning by KO).

Munoz wrecking Maia (if he doesn't get subbed).

Poirier wrecking Young.

Cerrone wrecking Rocha.

Herman-Einemo also very likely to end in a KO, as both guy guys use a lot of offense and aren't very cautious in there.

Tough call and harder to predict on this card, in my opinion.

[Ladle]

This is a bit more risky because of the undercard possibilities at 131.

When Browne KO'ed Struve, it was a pretty solid KO of the night play (someone on the board mentioned the violent and silly ways Struve falls to the ground - and it was proven true).

Stann was the only other possibility that night.

But here several possibilities exist for KO of the night:

Carwin or JDS (either winning by KO).

Munoz wrecking Maia (if he doesn't get subbed).

Poirier wrecking Young.

Cerrone wrecking Rocha.

Herman-Einemo also very likely to end in a KO, as both guy guys use a lot of offense and aren't very cautious in there.

Tough call and harder to predict on this card, in my opinion.

Largely agree with those calls, though Cerrone isn't much of a finisher on the feet. Will be interested to see if he can lace Rocha with his striking and get a stoppage.

Also, I wouldn't rule out Chris Weidman from this discussion. Dude is a rapidly improving, super legit prospect. TJ Grant put an absolute whooping on Jesse Bongfeldt for three rounds until he got submitted, so I think Weidman could potentially run straight through him. A submission win is perhaps more likely, but Bongfeldt was knocked out by a lightweight.

[FlashinLeather]

I love this matchup, two guys throwing bombs and one of them is going to go down. I have no idea who so i'll just be enjoying the fight sunday morning (F1 WEEKEND IN MONTREAL!). If I was going to bet on this fight I would be sticking to the ending in KO/TKO or KO of the Night prop.

[urge2kill]

This is a bit more risky because of the undercard possibilities at 131.

When Browne KO'ed Struve, it was a pretty solid KO of the night play (someone on the board mentioned the violent and silly ways Struve falls to the ground - and it was proven true).

Stann was the only other possibility that night.

But here several possibilities exist for KO of the night:

Carwin or JDS (either winning by KO).

Munoz wrecking Maia (if he doesn't get subbed).

Poirier wrecking Young.

Cerrone wrecking Rocha.

Herman-Einemo also very likely to end in a KO, as both guy guys use a lot of offense and aren't very cautious in there.

Tough call and harder to predict on this card, in my opinion.

Cerrone has never KOd anybody.

[Nick The Greek]

Definitely going big on JDS inside the distance. I need to make up for a losing night on the TUF Finale. Carwin is 36 years old, coming off serious back surgery, fighting on this new diet for the very first time, and gives up a lot of hand speed to Dos Santos. If he does take JDS down, he won't be able to keep him down for long as JDS has excellent hips on the ground.

[Vaughany]

Largely agree with those calls, though Cerrone isn't much of a finisher on the feet. Will be interested to see if he can lace Rocha with his striking and get a stoppage.

Also, I wouldn't rule out Chris Weidman from this discussion. Dude is a rapidly improving, super legit prospect. TJ Grant put an absolute whooping on Jesse Bongfeldt for three rounds until he got submitted, so I think Weidman could potentially run straight through him. A submission win is perhaps more likely, but Bongfeldt was knocked out by a lightweight.

Yeah Cerrone has a rather vertical stance and tends to lean back a little which means he doesn't get that much power in his leg kicks and punches, but nonetheless if they connect in the right spot they are still gonna hurt!
I'll be considering Cerrone by decision if there is value, they'll probly favour Cerrone inside distance.

[MMAbetMASTA]

I wouldn't touch this fight for a str8 moneyline play... to tough to call. I don't think it will go the distance though.

If I had to pick, I would be playing dos santos just because there are too many 'iffs' with carwin. However, I think either man could win this, hence why I will likely stay away from this one.

My big money bet is on Munoz

[Vrakas]

carwin florian and maia are my pics

[kmdubya]

carwin florian and maia are my pics

Same picks. I'm going to be in Vegas this weekend so I'll be laying down on those fights for sure.

[Camdemonium]

I wouldn't touch this fight for a str8 moneyline play... to tough to call. I don't think it will go the distance though.

If I had to pick, I would be playing dos santos just because there are too many 'iffs' with carwin. However, I think either man could win this, hence why I will likely stay away from this one.

My big money bet is on Munoz

I'm just curious, what are your "iffs". I can only think of one, cardio. He threw a ton of punches against lesnar and had him badly hurt. In my opinion that fight maybe should have been stopped. I'm about 50-50 but I've seen worse. We know that he has BIG punching power and I was just watching Dos Santos-Cro Cop and Junior does get hit a bunch. I also seem to remember Dos Santos getting tagged by Nelson too. I'm thinking maybe Carwin connects with one of those meat bombs and it's over. But who knows.

[Camdemonium]

If Dos Santos can stop his takedowns it's only a matter of time until Carwin goes to sleep.

But can he stop them?

We haven't seen much of his wrestling/takedown defense so far.

I don't think Carwin is going to take it down. See my above post.

War Carwin.

[Kaladarus]

I like a big play on Dos Santos. Not sure yet what I'm going to do with Carwin, but I likely will put in a small play for Carwin to get the KOTN just incase.