With Carwin coming off of surgery and having lost a considerable amount of weight anybody feeling good about Dos Santos? I really feel like anything better than -200 for Dos Santos is a solid play. The line seems to be getting closer and closer which is leading me to believe that a lot of people are really buying into Carwin's "new diet" and "more explosiveness".
The line is now down to -165 on 5dimes which is leading me to believe it might only get closer and closer. I'm thinking about going big on Dos Santos straight up and hedge it with Carwin by KO. Which is Carwin's only way to win this fight in my opinion. Carwin hasn't displayed the type of wrestling ability in mixed martial arts which leads me to believe that he could grind out a decision. I also don't think he has the cardio where he could grind out a decision. He does have the power where he could get a takedown and pound somebody out... But I feel if he takes Dos Santos down then Dos Santos will spring right back to his feet. I see Carwin definitely trying to work the clinch and look for some big uppercuts like he did in the Mir fight....
Unfortunately I feel Dos Santos is going to be smart enough to circle away from the cage and use his footwork and hand speed (which are a lot better than Carwin's) to negate the clinch. And even if Carwin does get the clinch I don't think it's going to be as easy to press Junior against the cage.
Anybody have a similar thoughts?
The line is now down to -165 on 5dimes which is leading me to believe it might only get closer and closer. I'm thinking about going big on Dos Santos straight up and hedge it with Carwin by KO. Which is Carwin's only way to win this fight in my opinion. Carwin hasn't displayed the type of wrestling ability in mixed martial arts which leads me to believe that he could grind out a decision. I also don't think he has the cardio where he could grind out a decision. He does have the power where he could get a takedown and pound somebody out... But I feel if he takes Dos Santos down then Dos Santos will spring right back to his feet. I see Carwin definitely trying to work the clinch and look for some big uppercuts like he did in the Mir fight....
Unfortunately I feel Dos Santos is going to be smart enough to circle away from the cage and use his footwork and hand speed (which are a lot better than Carwin's) to negate the clinch. And even if Carwin does get the clinch I don't think it's going to be as easy to press Junior against the cage.
Anybody have a similar thoughts?