What Fights Are You Guys Most Confident With Going Forward?

[jacktheknife]

GSP by KO or decision is -400 on Paddy. Think I'd rather take GSP by decision hedged with GSP KO of the Night or something.

Actually that sounds bad. GSP's not ktfoing anyone, but as terrible as Jake's standup is, I can see an unspectacular stoppage. Although if Koschieck doesn't get waved off with a testicle in his eyelid then it's probably not terribly likely. Either way it ain't worth no -400 straight.

How about Shields by sub?

[Vaughany]

Actually that sounds bad. GSP's not ktfoing anyone, but as terrible as Jake's standup is, I can see an unspectacular stoppage. Although if Koschieck doesn't get waved off with a testicle in his eyelid then it's probably not terribly likely. Either way it ain't worth no -400 straight.

How about Shields by sub?

Not gonna happen IMO, cant see him gettin GSP to the ground or at least keeping him ther for long enough to work a sub. If he's on his back GSP will be too conservative and stifling for Shields to sweep or lock a triangle on him or something. Plus Shields by sub is pointless when Shields Sub of the Night will be at better odds.

[bogbat]

Does anyone have the stats on how the two lighter weight classes have done on "fight of the night" bonuses since the merge? I have a feeling there could be some good value here.

[Vaughany]

Does anyone have the stats on how the two lighter weight classes have done on "fight of the night" bonuses since the merge? I have a feeling there could be some good value here.

McDonald/Figueroa got FOTN at last event.

Njokuani/Barbosa at 128
Sanchez/Kampmann at Versus event
Lytle/Ebersole at 127
Cerrone/Kelly at 126

[jacktheknife]

Not gonna happen IMO, cant see him gettin GSP to the ground or at least keeping him ther for long enough to work a sub. If he's on his back GSP will be too conservative and stifling for Shields to sweep or lock a triangle on him or something. Plus Shields by sub is pointless when Shields Sub of the Night will be at better odds.

I thought about that, but Shield's jitsu is also pretty conservative and you're playing him against guys like Bocek and Diaz and guys looking to make a name for themselves.

[Vaughany]

I thought about that, but Shield's jitsu is also pretty conservative and you're playing him against guys like Bocek and Diaz and guys looking to make a name for themselves.

There's no way that he wouldn't get sub of the night if he does sub GSP.,.rare that the main event fight doesnt get the KO of the night or sub of the night if one of the fighters finishes the other. Shields is a big underdog, main event against arguably the best P4P fighter on the planet. Lesnar got sub of the night against Carwin even tho Lytle pulled of a mounted triangle/straight armbar on Brown and Leben triangled Akiyama.

[Vaughany]

What do you see here? Randy has not been KO'ed since 2006 and Machida showed no fight in him until the final round against rampage. I see this fight going the full three rounds I have to think that randy will know he is out matched striking and fight a smart fight to a decision.

You could be right, definitely a chance that Randy takes a decision. However, in terms of how these two match up stylistically Randy hasn't faced anybody as elusive as Machida or with as good counter striking (or striking in general) since he fought CHuck years ago (and got TKO'd). Vera, Coleman, Fat-ass Toney are very static fighters and thus made it easy for Couture to implement his gameplan. Even Big Nog who isnt exactly fleet of foot was able to knock Randy down and could of easily finished him with strikes in the first round, but instead immediately went for a submission because he wanted to be first fighter to sub Couture since Rodriguez. He also knocked Randy down in third round but due to fatigue couldn't finish him with hammer fists...and Nog has never exactly been known as being a Ground and Pound specialist! There's no way Randy takes a flurry like Rampage took in the third round from Machida. If Machida can finish Thiago Silva and Rashad Evans with strikes then I have no doubt that he can also finish Randy with strikes.

[Ladle]

i`m surprised to hear folks picking alves to wipe the floor with story...if story moves to +200,i may take a flyer with the lefty wrestler that has some sub game......

He is somewhat submission-savvy, and I appreciate why you'd take a flier on him at +200, but is there any area of the game where he's notably superior to Koscheck? While Story has improved since his debut, let's not forget that he was once largely out-boxed and out-wrestled by John Hathaway.

like bader over tito(not a shocker and the odds reflect it)....tito won`t out-wrestle bader and will gas early.......i don`t know where the "tito has great cardio" b.s. started...i guess when he was laying on guys that couldn`t wrestle....

I mostly agree, though I may take a flier on Ortiz by decision if the odds are hefty. Combine some dubious judging with the fact that Bader has a history of looking dreadful in the second round, and we may have a recipe for an upset.

might take a few small dogs like gray maynard....and the more i look,the more i like junior dos santos....after watching couture/lesnar again,i think that dos santos spends his whole camp defending takedowns and beats up lesnar...i think lesnar`s time is up...

I agree with you, and JDS by KO/TKO will be the line I take for that fight.

I think JDS will get taken down, but I do think he's got the hips to get up. Keep in mind that when they were beginning to prepare to fight dos Santos, Velasquez's coaches didn't single out dos Santos' takedown defense; they singled out his hips and ability to escape from the bottom. It's the same attribute that allowed Velasquez to get back up and annihilate Lesnar. I think we see it again in this fight.

What do you see here? Randy has not been KO'ed since 2006 and Machida showed no fight in him until the final round against rampage. I see this fight going the full three rounds I have to think that randy will know he is out matched striking and fight a smart fight to a decision.

Re-watching Machida/T. Silva and Couture/Rodrigo makes me think otherwise. I think Randy drops like a sack of potatoes after Machida lands his first significant counter.

[rocky mattioli]

He is somewhat submission-savvy, and I appreciate why you'd take a flier on him at +200, but is there any area of the game where he's notably superior to Koscheck? While Story has improved since his debut, let's not forget that he was once largely out-boxed and out-wrestled by John Hathaway.



I mostly agree, though I may take a flier on Ortiz by decision if the odds are hefty. Combine some dubious judging with the fact that Bader has a history of looking dreadful in the second round, and we may have a recipe for an upset.



I agree with you, and JDS by KO/TKO will be the line I take for that fight.

I think JDS will get taken down, but I do think he's got the hips to get up. Keep in mind that when they were beginning to prepare to fight dos Santos, Velasquez's coaches didn't single out dos Santos' takedown defense; they singled out his hips and ability to escape from the bottom. It's the same attribute that allowed Velasquez to get back up and annihilate Lesnar. I think we see it again in this fight.



Re-watching Machida/T. Silva and Couture/Rodrigo makes me think otherwise. I think Randy drops like a sack of potatoes after Machida lands his first significant counter.

appreciate the response....i really think that bader is just a terrible match-up for a used up ortiz who is basically living off his grappling domination from a time gone by...when there weren`t so many young,dominant ncaa wrestlers around... .....i really don`t see any way he beats bader....he can`t out-grapple him...i think his stand-up has always been sketchy....and his cardio has been one of the biggest myths in mma....

unfortunately,the oddsmakers agree with me.....very unfriendly line makes bader parlay material only....

i`m very frugal...

[Ladle]

appreciate the response....i really think that bader is just a terrible match-up for a used up ortiz who is basically living off his grappling domination from a time gone by...when there weren`t so many young,dominant ncaa wrestlers around... .....i really don`t see any way he beats bader....he can`t out-grapple him...i think his stand-up has always been sketchy....and his cardio has been one of the biggest myths in mma....

unfortunately,the oddsmakers agree with me.....very unfriendly line makes bader parlay material only....

i`m very frugal...

I largely agree with your assessment. If and when I make a bet on Ortiz by decision, it won't be because I think Ortiz can beat him in any area; it'll be because I'm banking on Bader looking bad in the latter rounds as well. I don't think Ortiz is better in any regard, but Bader's cardio disappears after five minutes and he's not an awesome wrestler, just a solid one.

Always been a big fan of your posts by the way, Rocky. Keep up the good work hermano.

[stefan084]

I'm not sure Bader can look bad enough for Ortiz to steal a decision. i also think he will be extra motivated after his loss to Jones. As much as I like Randy Couture I agree that the first big shot he takes he's out of there,maybe not even a big shot. I'm back and forth on Dos Antos, at first I thought he's no Cain, he'll get taken down and that's where the fight will stay. Now I'm thinking he's a pretty smart guy and has some good coaches around him so he'll be prepared. I'm certain Brock will shoot w/i the first minute of the fight though---I'll have to see if Vaughany found a prop for that yet Brock shoots +400 hedged w/ Brock doesn't shoot+350---wish I could play at some European sites

[urge2kill]

I'm not sure Bader can look bad enough for Ortiz to steal a decision. i also think he will be extra motivated after his loss to Jones.

Motivation as an advantage is a bigger myth than Tito's cardio.

[Chairib]

Motivation as an advantage is a bigger myth than Tito's cardio.

That's mean.

[FindTheLock]

GSP wins decision, Randy gets KO'd, Bader gets herpes while TKO'ing Tito, and Brock Lesnar loses to JDS in a similar fashion to the way he lost to cain.

[MMAdisciple]

Rogerio deserved the win over Brilz. I watched it a few times. People were just surprised Brilz looked as good as he did.

For sure. It was the first round that was in question and the only difference between each guy there was that Rogerio landed a few clean standing strikes.

Sensationalism blocks logic.

[Vaughany]

I agree with that. Kongo is a pussy for some reason that refuses to use his kickboxing and resorts to acting like a wrestler. Against Barry and his shit ground, that's an easy TKO. If Barry impresses, it's a decision win for Kongo.

Barry realises he's in the shiiiiit!... "Joe Silva called me real cool and casual. We were talking and he was like, 'So what do you think of Cheick Kongo?' I was like, 'Man, I don't care about Cheick Kongo. He ain't been performing. He ain't been doing his thing.' Then he was like, 'Okay good, you're going to fight him on [June] 26.' That's when I felt like, oh sh-t. Aw, man. I need more time."

[RaiderNation MMA]

brock is going to grapple JDS right out of s title shot

[Ladle]

For sure. It was the first round that was in question and the only difference between each guy there was that Rogerio landed a few clean standing strikes.

Sensationalism blocks logic.

That "sensationalism" shouldn't apply on repeated viewings.

Brilz took Rogerio down, got to half guard, briefly took his back and landed some shots, then took top position again and landed some hammerfists. Rogerio did take Brilz's back in a scramble, but Brilz escaped after a couple of seconds. Therefore, Brilz had more positional dominance in round one. That's a fact.

Rogerio landed a couple of knees early on and a straight left towards the end, but I don't think that should take precedence over Brilz's takedown and subsequent dominance on the ground. Rogerio also spent some time up against the cage defending a second takedown which obviously doesn't help his case.

I'm not sure Bader can look bad enough for Ortiz to steal a decision.

All it takes is one lackluster round from a gassed Bader and a bit of controversial judging (which we tend to get at least once every single event). I'll take the bet at the right odds.

[rocky mattioli]

I largely agree with your assessment. If and when I make a bet on Ortiz by decision, it won't be because I think Ortiz can beat him in any area; it'll be because I'm banking on Bader looking bad in the latter rounds as well. I don't think Ortiz is better in any regard, but Bader's cardio disappears after five minutes and he's not an awesome wrestler, just a solid one.

Always been a big fan of your posts by the way, Rocky. Keep up the good work hermano.

it`s mutual...nothing better than being able to state an opinion or disagree respectfully with very savvy mma followers.....makes me think....

guys like yourself,v,ecco and illmatick(among others) have bolstered or even changed my opinions on fights...most times to my benefit....

[omalley21]

The only way I would bet Tito is to take a flier on Tito by sub. He almost caught machida.

[MMAdisciple]

That "sensationalism" shouldn't apply on repeated viewings.

Exactly why I don't understand people who say they saw it more than once.

Brilz took Rogerio down, got to half guard, briefly took his back and landed some shots, then took top position again and landed some hammerfists.

Correction: some empty, short shots that seemed to be getting blocked. And one clean hammerfist. All the while not establishing control for more than a few seconds, rather just fighting the sweep most of the time.

Rogerio did take Brilz's back in a scramble

And evened up the TD's. And landed some GNP of his own.

Brilz had more positional dominance in round one. That's a fact.

Barely. But Nog had much more standing dominance. That's a fact. (did Brilz land any standing strikes in round one?)

Rogerio landed a couple of knees early on and a straight left towards the end

"couple of knees" sounds petty, it was two big knees to the body, the most significant strikes of the round. And the straight left was followed by a right - the next most significant strikes of the round.

but I don't think that should take precedence over Brilz's takedown and subsequent dominance on the ground.

Again with the Brilz td...exactly what did Nog's td do for you? 2 big knees, some leg kicks, taking Brilz down and taking his back plus GNP and a clean combo shouldn't take precedence over one td, 2 short elbows, and 1 hammerfist?

Rogerio also spent some time up against the cage defending a second takedown which obviously doesn't help his case.

Yes, that was a very tense 3 seconds...but it didn't help his case to who? He won!

[Brian891]

whats warren's deal? huge fav gettin his ass kicked. ruining everyones parlay. ugh.

[Crazygamble]

good luck my friend

[Ladle]

Correction: some empty, short shots that seemed to be getting blocked. And one clean hammerfist. All the while not establishing control for more than a few seconds, rather just fighting the sweep most of the time.

That's not a correction. That's a biased elaboration. Brilz landed two punches when he took Rogerio's back, and he landed an elbow shortly afterwards. He then landed a clean hammerfist, then landed two punches (Rogerio's arms were wrapped up in Brilz's legs so he couldn't defend the shots).

Whether or not Brilz was defending the sweep from time to time is largely irrelevant. Brilz still achieved dominant position over Rogerio, and Brilz still did the most damage on the ground.

And evened up the TD's. And landed some GNP of his own.

Nope. ALL of that "GNP" was blocked by Brilz.

Furthermore, Brilz popped back up after about five seconds. How can you perceive that as having the same significance as Brilz's takedown, and subsequent control?

Also, there was something I neglected to mention before: Brilz actually attempted a guillotine which forced Rogerio to sacrifice position and give up his back. I think that's fairly noteworthy.

Barely. But Nog had much more standing dominance. That's a fact. (did Brilz land any standing strikes in round one?)

No, not barely. He flat-out had more dominance in the grappling.

And yes, Brilz did land a few strikes - a punch and a leg kick. He also lands a right hand which pushed Rogerio backwards after he got up from Rogerio's takedown.

"couple of knees" sounds petty, it was two big knees to the body, the most significant strikes of the round. And the straight left was followed by a right - the next most significant strikes of the round.

I agree that the knees were probably the hardest shots of the round, but the left and right at the end weren't "the next most significant" strikes. They might have been the next most significant STANDING strikes of the round, but I don't think they should take precedence over Brilz's strikes on the ground.

Again with the Brilz td...exactly what did Nog's td do for you? 2 big knees, some leg kicks, taking Brilz down and taking his back plus GNP and a clean combo shouldn't take precedence over one td, 2 short elbows, and 1 hammerfist?

You're very generous to Rogerio in your analysis of the round (no surprise there).

Brilz popped up from that takedown in 5 seconds and blocked all of the ground and pound. You want to know how long Jason Brilz maintained dominant position in round one? One minute and seventy two seconds. With that in mind, you can't intelligently say that Rogerio's ground control was on the same level of significance as Brilz's ground control. You also can't say that Rogerio's takedown was equally as significant.

Yes, that was a very tense 3 seconds...but it didn't help his case to who? He won!

Try counting again; it was actually sixteen seconds. Your tone implies that it's not significant, but it is. Small things like that can make the difference in close rounds.

Ultimately, the gap between Brilz's positional dominance and Rogerio's positional dominance was greater than the gap between Rogerio's striking dominance and Brilz's striking dominance. Compound that with the fact that Brilz also did more damage on the ground - in addition to maintaining dominant position for one minute and seventy two seconds - and I'd say this round justifiable should have gone to Brilz.

[Vaughany]

I also like Travis Browne over Struve...especially if he comes out as the dog.

With regard to 129, I'm likin Jensen over Jason Macdonald, hopefully Jensen has improved his cardio. Macdonald hasn't fought in 11 months after breaking his leg, and then gettin injured again durin his camp for Natal. Have to question his physical state goin in to this fight. Also like Mendjivar over Valencia.

[Ladle]

I also like Travis Browne over Struve...especially if he comes out as the dog.

With regard to 129, I'm likin Jensen over Jason Macdonald, hopefully Jensen has improved his cardio. Macdonald hasn't fought in 11 months after breaking his leg, and then gettin injured again durin his camp for Natal. Have to question his physical state goin in to this fight. Also like Mendjivar over Valencia.

Agreed on all accounts.

Browne is reckless but he has a good chin and hits extremely hard. I think he puts Struve to sleep a la Roy Nelson and dos Santos.

I definitely like Menjivar to win, and am very excited to see him in the UFC. My only reservation about him is that - in the past - he never showed any semblance of strategy and instead chose to do whatever his opponent wanted. If his opponent stood there, he'd strike with them; if they wanted to grapple, he'd roll around on the ground. He constantly indulged his opponents' strengths even though he could have been dominant by forcing them to fight his fight. I truly believe that if he starts constructing decent game plans, he's going to be an absolutely elite fighter at 135.

[Ian]

It's not MMA, but the fight I'm most confident about is Pacquiao beating Mosley. -600 is available, and even though that's a ton of chalk I think it's definitely worth a small bet. The only chance Mosley has is a fluke 1 punch KO, but Paq's got a chin and Mosley's so shot he can't get his punches off fast enough to land the heavy stuff against a speedy fighter.

[Ladle]

It's not MMA, but the fight I'm most confident about is Pacquiao beating Mosley. -600 is available, and even though that's a ton of chalk I think it's definitely worth a small bet. The only chance Mosley has is a fluke 1 punch KO, but Paq's got a chin and Mosley's so shot he can't get his punches off fast enough to land the heavy stuff against a speedy fighter.

Love the avatar. Do you like mine?

[Ian]

Love the avatar. Do you like mine?

[PunisherIND]

I'm liking a parlay on GSP, Aldo, Rampage, Bader, Guillard, and the Reem.

Pays 3.63 to 1 on 5dimes.

[xelance]

I'm liking a parlay on GSP, Aldo, Rampage, Bader, Guillard, and the Reem. Pays 3.63 to 1 on 5dimes.

too many fights IMO, one is bound to lose...try to keep the parlay to 4 max.

[Kaladarus]

i like macdonald over nate diaz. hopefully he'll be a big dog when lines open.

Odds are up go go go.

[sirchadwick1]

Rory is at -150
Nate at +110

Think I'll wait to see if the lines get a bit closer before I throw down on Rory.

EDIT: That changed quickly... Rory now at +105, Nate at -140. Time for me to make the move.

[koscheckbaby]

No one's big on Brian Stann over Jorge Santiago? Santiago has been KO'd in his career by a current featherweight. He also was recently KO'ed by a guy on his back throwing a hammerfist. He also was brutally KO'ed a couple times in his initial UFC stint. Stann just cracked Leben's jaw. His size is gonna be very hard to Santiago to work. Stann looks like an enormous MW. Massenzio, a pretty good wrestler, had a great deal of trouble getting Stann down. Just don't think Santiago can win this one.

I'm big on Browne over Struve myself too. Struve is ALWAYs getting his asskicked, but turns it around. He won't be able to survive a Browne beatdown.

[bigjah15]

I'm big on Browne over Struve myself too. Struve is ALWAYs getting his asskicked, but turns it around. He won't be able to survive a Browne beatdown.

I am rooting for struve, hes a fellow giant like me, gotta keep it in the giant clan!