Tyson Griffin (-290) vs Takanori Gomi (+256)

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  • lasker
    SBR MVP
    • 01-27-10
    • 1683

    #1
    Tyson Griffin (-290) vs Takanori Gomi (+256)



    Takanori Gomi was initially set to face Joe Stevenson, and in my opinion he now faces an even tougher challenge. The Japanese star was once regarded by many as the #1 lightweight in the world, but he has lost much of his mystical aura from the Pride days. He is 2-3 in his last fight fights, and in his last fight -- his much anticipated UFC debut -- he was on the wrong end of a one-sided beatdown and eventual submission against Kenny Florian. While there is no shame in losing to Florian, I believe it was a sign that Gomi will find the competition in the UFC considerably tougher than most of his competition in Pride. Gomi has not evolved as a fighter since his heyday, and I expect his troubles to continue here against Griffin, who is a very difficult opponent for anyone.

    Both fighters are coming off of a loss. However, not all fighters respond to losses in the same way. Prior to his most recent loss, Griffin had only lost twice. Both times he rebounded with a victory and Fight of the Night bonus in his very next fight. Griffin is known for being a hard-worker in the gym and his losses only motivate him.

    Gomi lost five fights prior to his most recent loss to Florian. His first loss was to Hansen was followed by a horrendous demolotion at the hands of BJ Penn (again, no shame in losing to Penn, but the fight was expected to be very close). His next loss was a huge upset against Marcus Aurelio, followed by an uninspiring and unimpressive victory against virtually unknown David Baron, a fighter Pride "fed" to Gomi in an effort to rebuild his status. He was later upset by unknown Sergey Golyaev at Sengoku 6 and then lost his very next fight by submission to Kitoaka, despite being the heavy favorite. Gomi does not seem to bounce back well from losses; they seem to depress him rather than motivate him.

    This trend is interesting, but the main reason that Griffin is favored is, of course, because he is the better fighter. His standup is more technical and diverse. His boxing is much crisper than Gomi's, as Gomi throws wide, looping punches that rely on power more than technique. He has some of the best leg-kicks in the lightweight division; this is something Gomi has not had to deal with very much in the past (he has never before faced an opponent as good at leg-kicks as Griffin) and it will likely prove difficult for him to deal with. He has excellent submission defense, which is something Gomi lacks -- four out of Gomi's six losses have come by submission (five out of seven if you include the Nick Diaz fight). Neither fighter has ever been knocked out. Griffin, who has had 10 fights and 27 rounds in the UFC, has never been knocked down or even rocked in any of them. His chin is rock-solid, which will help negate Gomi's feared punching power.

    While I am confident that Griffin will win this fight and think that there is still a bit of value taking him at -290, I think there is much more value on a prop bet: Griffin to win by decision at +108. Gomi cannot win by three round decision. Wrestling is usually the most important factor when looking at who is likely to win decisions. Gomi will be at a significant wrestling disadvantage, and Griffin excels at winning decisions against such opponents. The only people who have defeated Griffin were all superior wrestlers: Edgar (now the UFC champion), Sherk, and rising star Evan Dunham. That is not the case here.



    Gomi has excellent ground and pound but will not be able to use it against a fighter who has never been knocked down in the UFC and who can also stuff all of Gomi's takedown attempts. Griffin has good ground and pound and should be able to complete at least a few of his takedowns against Gomi, whose takedown defense is nothing to write home about. Couple this with Griffin's more diverse and more technical striking, and it is almost impossible for me to envision Gomi winning a decision (the odds of him not winning a decision are -810, compared to -148 for Griffin). Griffin excels at winning decisions. It's what he does. Five out of his seven UFC victories were won by decision. Here he faces an opponent whom he outclasses in all areas (except punching power) but who has only been stopped by submission. Griffin has good jiu-jitsu but it's better defensive jiu-jitsu; offensively, he's not close to the level of an Aurelio or a Florian or a Diaz, all fighters who have managed to submit Gomi.

    There's another very interesting trend that I have noticed over the years. After a top (or near-top) contender loses in the UFC, they often come back to win by decision. At least, it happens more often than the average number of decisions would indicate. This is especially true for wrestlers. With Tyson Griffin specifically, this happened after both of his previous losses. It happened with Frankie Edgar after his only loss. Sean Sherk is coming off of a loss to Edgar right now, but after his previous two losses he came back to win by decision both times. I could go on and on, but you get the idea. The point is that the contender is both afraid of a second loss and, at the same time, eager to ensure a win as safely as possible. In this case, both fighters here are hard to finish, both are coming off of a loss and in need of a one, and one outclasses the other in almost every area besides finishing ability.

    I believe that for every time Griffin would win this matchup, at least half would go to decision; realistically, I think it would be closer to three out of four. If I am right about this, then it follows that the Griffin by decision @ +108 prop has far more value than Griffin straight up @-290. If you'd feel safer with Griffin straight-up, I think that bet has an excellent chance and there's still some value in the current line. But, for the reasons above, the Griffin by decision prop looks much more lucrative. Good luck!
  • NOLA42
    SBR High Roller
    • 01-27-10
    • 243

    #2
    Betting on Griffin by decision also, great write-up
    Comment
    • westerner
      SBR High Roller
      • 05-02-10
      • 164

      #3
      horrible write up but griffin should win via gameplan
      Comment
      • lasker
        SBR MVP
        • 01-27-10
        • 1683

        #4
        Originally posted by westerner
        horrible write up but griffin should win via gameplan
        Thanks for your insightful comment
        Comment
        • shady610
          SBR MVP
          • 01-12-06
          • 1570

          #5
          griffin should win by a decision again.
          Comment
          • ThisGuy
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 03-12-10
            • 517

            #6
            I'd almost say a sub is more likely
            Comment
            • Tree Rollins
              SBR MVP
              • 12-16-09
              • 3968

              #7
              Originally posted by lasker
              Thanks for your insightful comment
              Don't listen to westerner. He is a fag. Everyone knows that.
              Comment
              • Straight Cash
                SBR MVP
                • 11-20-09
                • 2202

                #8
                I think Griffin plays it safe and goes for a decision here.
                Comment
                • JuicedUp
                  SBR MVP
                  • 01-20-10
                  • 3396

                  #9
                  I haven't seen one person picking Gomi so he is probably the play.
                  Comment
                  • cooldavid3169
                    SBR Hustler
                    • 06-19-10
                    • 92

                    #10
                    Griffin by fight of the night bonus.
                    Comment
                    • lasker
                      SBR MVP
                      • 01-27-10
                      • 1683

                      #11
                      "In the past, if you wanted to beat Gomi, you needed to get him to the ground and work there. It’s not that he doesn’t have good takedown defense; he does. But it’s hardly impenetrable. And if you do get him to the canvas, as Kenny Florian recently found out after out striking him at Fight Night 21, opportunities are going to open up. This leads us to some interesting things that Griffin recently said in a UFC.com article, after talking about how he should’ve changed his game plan in his most recent fight against Evan Dunham. Namely, he believes that he should have done more grappling, and this has been a focus in his recent training camp. Griffin is simply getting back to his wrestling roots.

                      “I’d love to stand up with everybody but, if he gets a takedown I’ve got to be willing to a boring grappler, I guess, and win the grappling match,” he said. ”It’s something that I’ve got to work back into my training, that fights are won on the ground.”

                      The fact that Griffin is talking grappling is smart. If Gomi wins this fight, it will almost assuredly be because he knocks Griffin out. Griffin, on the other hand, is a much more well-rounded fighter that is capable of fighting on the ground, fighting on his feet, or doing both in rapid succession. Though he doesn’t have the Brazilian Jiu Jitsu or submission resume of an Aurelio, Diaz, Florian, or BJ Penn (who also once submitted Gomi), his ground and pound skills coupled with better than advertised submissions will create absolute havoc for Gomi on the canvas.

                      In the end, the fact that Griffin is getting back to his grappling roots is likely bad news for one of the better lightweight fighters of all-time. Expect nothing less but a strong game plan from an Xtreme Couture product like Griffin, especially coming off of a loss.

                      The ground equals trouble for Takanori Gomi, and Griffin knows it."


                      Comment
                      • Shane
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 02-28-10
                        • 466

                        #12
                        I'm almost as confident in Griffin beating Gomi as I am that Jones is going to beat Vlady.
                        Comment
                        • lasker
                          SBR MVP
                          • 01-27-10
                          • 1683

                          #13
                          Likewise.
                          Comment
                          • THE_LOCKSMITH
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 08-25-08
                            • 7237

                            #14
                            even all the "experts" online like Griffin here, seems everyone thinks Gomi is done and this is a bad style match for him and i am in agreement
                            Comment
                            • GroundnPound
                              SBR MVP
                              • 11-12-09
                              • 4070

                              #15
                              I loved Gomi in his Pride days so might throw a bit on him just to cheer him on.
                              Comment
                              • teaserpleaser
                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                • 08-14-08
                                • 26015

                                #16
                                Gomi will have a better showing then that last rusty fight. He has reach and can stuff Tyson's takedown. No play but good luck yal should be a good fight.
                                Comment
                                • snake11eyes
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 07-28-10
                                  • 618

                                  #17
                                  I have to go with griffin by decision here to get a little more value. It just scares me a little when so many people have the same pick.
                                  Comment
                                  • sundin4prez
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 03-09-10
                                    • 1970

                                    #18
                                    i have to go with gomi because im a self confessed pride fighting fanboy.... also did you guys see the size diff. gomi actually looks in shape and hopefully he can use some his wrestling on a much smaller griffen
                                    Comment
                                    • sportsfanatic
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 03-10-07
                                      • 3967

                                      #19
                                      nice write up OP. still tempted by underdog gomi's +260 odds though.
                                      Comment
                                      • flyingillini
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 12-06-06
                                        • 41219

                                        #20
                                        Griffin is so hard to beat. This is going to be a hell of a fight. I really want Gomi to win but I can see Gomi just getting manhandled in all areas. He will probably start to gas and start throwing wild punches and Griffin will take him down and end it. I would love to see Gomi win though!
                                        המוסד‎
                                        המוסד למודיעין ולתפקידים מיוחדים‎
                                        Comment
                                        • cankid
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 08-22-08
                                          • 7221

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by westerner
                                          horrible write up but griffin should win via gameplan

                                          lol, but thx for the insight
                                          Comment
                                          • westerner
                                            SBR High Roller
                                            • 05-02-10
                                            • 164

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by lasker
                                            Thanks for your insightful comment
                                            Its a terrible because you're supposed to be breaking down the fight not breaking down each fighter's career's up until now, and historically how they are trending. Styles make fights, this is a great style match up for Gomi even if he hasn't looked good for a while. Gomi's a better fighter in pretty much every way but like I said he has an issue with gameplanning or lack thereof. You and anyone else who has actually watched his fights would know that.

                                            If you're going to start threads so people can read your fight writeups please watch some full fights of the guys instead of just writing an essay from reading the sherdog fightfinder entries.
                                            Comment
                                            • westerner
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 05-02-10
                                              • 164

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by Tree Rollins
                                              Don't listen to westerner. He is a fag. Everyone knows that.
                                              Originally posted by flyingillini
                                              Griffin is so hard to beat. This is going to be a hell of a fight. I really want Gomi to win but I can see Gomi just getting manhandled in all areas. He will probably start to gas and start throwing wild punches and Griffin will take him down and end it. I would love to see Gomi win though!
                                              Strange how I was able to knock up your mom and have you as an illegitimate, half retarded seed. Don't hate others because you're lazy.
                                              Comment
                                              • phillybadboy
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 12-11-09
                                                • 9383

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by westerner
                                                Strange how I was able to knock up your mom and have you as an illegitimate, half retarded seed. Don't hate others because you're lazy.
                                                Comment
                                                • lasker
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 01-27-10
                                                  • 1683

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by westerner

                                                  Its a terrible because you're supposed to be breaking down the fight not breaking down each fighter's career's up until now, and historically how they are trending. Styles make fights, this is a great style match up for Gomi even if he hasn't looked good for a while. Gomi's a better fighter in pretty much every way but like I said he has an issue with gameplanning or lack thereof. You and anyone else who has actually watched his fights would know that.


                                                  If you're going to start threads so people can read your fight writeups please watch some full fights of the guys instead of just writing an essay from reading the sherdog fightfinder entries.

                                                  Thanks for breaking down why you didn't like the write-up; it's better than saying "horrible write-up" without giving any reasons.

                                                  I have no problem with constructive criticism when it is intelligent, but this is not. The way fighters performed in the past obviously has a lot to do with breaking down a fight -- it is the most relevant information we have to go on. If you do not realize that past results and patterns can give some information about current matchups, then you shouldn't be betting MMA.

                                                  I agree that styles make fights, however I completely disagree that this matchup favors Gomi stylistically. If you actually read my write-up, you would have read my comments on their styles and how I thought Griffin's leg-kicks and wrestling could pose a serious problem for Gomi. I expect Gomi to be at a disadvantage wherever this fight goes. His main hope is to land one of his haymakers and get a KO/TKO, but that's very unlikely against Griffin. Gameplanning is not Gomi's main concern; his main problem is that he lacks technical striking, and his wrestling and submission defense both need improvement. If it's just a matter of gameplanning, what gameplan do you suggest Gomi follows in order to win this fight?

                                                  Also, saying "Gomi's a better fighter in pretty much every way" is an absurd statement. There's no doubt that Griffin is better with leg kicks, wrestling, and submission defense, not to mention he has the more technical boxing.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Tree Rollins
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 12-16-09
                                                    • 3968

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by westerner
                                                    Strange how I was able to knock up your mom and have you as an illegitimate, half retarded seed. Don't hate others because you're lazy.
                                                    You had a half-retarded kid with my mother? I always wondered who my brother took after. At least now i know that he's a retard and a pussy because he takes after his daddy.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Tree Rollins
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 12-16-09
                                                      • 3968

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by phillybadboy
                                                      HAHRARHRAHHARAHARHAR!!!!! did that make you giggle like a little bitch?

                                                      Dude, you're a retard. You completely guessed and picked 2 fights right in a row, one lucky, and spent the next week BEGGING for someone to tell you how awesome you are. Clearly, no one in life appreciates you, so you're desperate for acceptance. Quit your sniveling. You come off as a whiny little sissy.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Tree Rollins
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 12-16-09
                                                        • 3968

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by lasker
                                                        Thanks for breaking down why you didn't like the write-up; it's better than saying "horrible write-up" without giving any reasons. I have no problem with constructive criticism when it is intelligent, but this is not. The way fighters performed in the past obviously has a lot to do with breaking down a fight -- it is the most relevant information we have to go on. If you do not realize that past results and patterns can give some information about current matchups, then you shouldn't be betting MMA. I agree that styles make fights, however I completely disagree that this matchup favors Gomi stylistically. If you actually read my write-up, you would have read my comments on their styles and how I thought Griffin's leg-kicks and wrestling could pose a serious problem for Gomi. I expect Gomi to be at a disadvantage wherever this fight goes. His main hope is to land one of his haymakers and get a KO/TKO, but that's very unlikely against Griffin. Gameplanning is not Gomi's main concern; his main problem is that he lacks technical striking, and his wrestling and submission defense both need improvement. If it's just a matter of gameplanning, what gameplan do you suggest Gomi follows in order to win this fight? Also, saying "Gomi's a better fighter in pretty much every way" is an absurd statement. There's no doubt that Griffin is better with leg kicks, wrestling, and submission defense, not to mention he has the more technical boxing.

                                                        Westerner. This guy just owned you. I would be impressed but this happens just about every time you post an opinion.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • phillybadboy
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 12-11-09
                                                          • 9383

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by Tree Rollins
                                                          HAHRARHRAHHARAHARHAR!!!!! did that make you giggle like a little bitch? Dude, you're a retard. You completely guessed and picked 2 fights right in a row, one lucky, and spent the next week BEGGING for someone to tell you how awesome you are. Clearly, no one in life appreciates you, so you're desperate for acceptance. Quit your sniveling. You come off as a whiny little sissy.
                                                          how do i whine?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • JuicedUp
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 01-20-10
                                                            • 3396

                                                            #30
                                                            what do you fellas think about Griffin inside the distance +170
                                                            Comment
                                                            • JuicedUp
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 01-20-10
                                                              • 3396

                                                              #31
                                                              Damn gomi is
                                                              back!
                                                              Comment
                                                              • teaserpleaser
                                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                • 08-14-08
                                                                • 26015

                                                                #32
                                                                that just killed more than a few parlays... believe that. i knew gomi would be a problem for tyson
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Dirty Sanchez
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 03-01-10
                                                                  • 16031

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Griffin took a face plant.. Easy to call after the fight is over
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • teaserpleaser
                                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                    • 08-14-08
                                                                    • 26015

                                                                    #34
                                                                    called a tough close fight before the fight. knew gomi would have a better showing check page 2
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • THE_LOCKSMITH
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 08-25-08
                                                                      • 7237

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by teaserpleaser
                                                                      that just killed more than a few parlays... believe that. i knew gomi would be a problem for tyson
                                                                      So true, i just got killed on sereral parlay on this one too
                                                                      Comment
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