Vaughany's MMA Picks...

**Ron_Paul_2012** · 01-31-13, 05:56 PM

Hello JKD. Thank you for leaving a thoughtful reply. I am open to any and all advice. I am still new and learning every week. I will give a brief explanation how I came to those 3 parlays. For entertainment purposes only let us say I wagered $1000 on a 2 way parlay (Reem and Evans) on what I believe is a lock. The payout is $576.67 plus the original $1000. The second parlay that involves Volkmann is only $100. The payout is $103.02 plus the original $100. The third parlay involves Edgar and is only $50. I believe this should be an even odds fight. However, since the books had Edgar at plus 200, I thought it was a good value play. The payout is $107.38 plus the original $50. Remember my premise is that Reem and Evans are a lock. I agree with you that if either Reem or Evans loses the whole thing collapses. However, these types of parlays have been extremely effective during the last 7 months. Another example of this type of parlay happened last week during Bellator. %90 of bank roll on an Askren and King Mo parlay. The remaining %10 on an Askren, King Mo and Lima parlay. These types of parlays are structured on the premise of having 2 locks. Big ups for your avatar. I can actually hear Lenne Hardt screaming Minowa Man's name.

**Grabaka** · 01-31-13, 06:11 PM

Originally posted by Ron_Paul_2012

Hello JKD. Thank you for leaving a thoughtful reply. I am open to any and all advice. I am still new and learning every week. I will give a brief explanation how I came to those 3 parlays. For entertainment purposes only let us say I wagered $1000 on a 2 way parlay (Reem and Evans) on what I believe is a lock. The payout is $576.67 plus the original $1000. The second parlay that involves Volkmann is only $100. The payout is $103.02 plus the original $100. The third parlay involves Edgar and is only $50. I believe this should be an even odds fight. However, since the books had Edgar at plus 200, I thought it was a good value play. The payout is $107.38 plus the original $50. Remember my premise is that Reem and Evans are a lock. I agree with you that if either Reem or Evans loses the whole thing collapses. However, these types of parlays have been extremely effective during the last 7 months. Another example of this type of parlay happened last week during Bellator. %90 of bank roll on an Askren and King Mo parlay. The remaining %10 on an Askren, King Mo and Lima parlay. These types of parlays are structured on the premise of having 2 locks. Big ups for your avatar. I can actually hear Lenne Hardt screaming Minowa Man's name.

That was a good advise from JDK and altho you said you liked it you just dismissed it.
What about playing edgar for those 50 bucks you had in your parlay without the faves? It would work out as 50 to win 95. Your parlay just adds 12.38 bucks to it. Why do it? Unless Evans or Uber were soft lines it doesnt makes sense and in the long run it will hurt. One of those guys you call locks could end up losing this weekend or the next and youll get fuckt

MD · 01-31-13, 06:26 PM

Originally posted by Ron_Paul_2012

Hello JKD. Thank you for leaving a thoughtful reply. I am open to any and all advice. I am still new and learning every week. I will give a brief explanation how I came to those 3 parlays. For entertainment purposes only let us say I wagered $1000 on a 2 way parlay (Reem and Evans) on what I believe is a lock. The payout is $576.67 plus the original $1000. The second parlay that involves Volkmann is only $100. The payout is $103.02 plus the original $100. The third parlay involves Edgar and is only $50. I believe this should be an even odds fight. However, since the books had Edgar at plus 200, I thought it was a good value play. The payout is $107.38 plus the original $50. Remember my premise is that Reem and Evans are a lock. I agree with you that if either Reem or Evans loses the whole thing collapses. However, these types of parlays have been extremely effective during the last 7 months. Another example of this type of parlay happened last week during Bellator. %90 of bank roll on an Askren and King Mo parlay. The remaining %10 on an Askren, King Mo and Lima parlay. These types of parlays are structured on the premise of having 2 locks. Big ups for your avatar. I can actually hear Lenne Hardt screaming Minowa Man's name.

You will go broke.

**hobbesITD** · 01-31-13, 06:36 PM

Premises that involve "locks" are not good premises.

**Ron_Paul_2012** · 01-31-13, 08:30 PM

Hello Grabaka. Great name

Brings me back to my Pride days. I appreciate any and all advice. I did not disagree with JKD. Nor did I dismiss his advice. The bets were already placed a week ago. I merely wanted him to know some of the reasoning behind my parlays. Moreover, I believe that there are many different betting strategies that can work with many different types of people. It should be noted that I have increased my starting bank roll by %2600 since I started 7 months ago. I don't know too many people that can say the same. The first 3 months were the most difficult. There are hundreds of calculations both on a conscious and subconscious level that must be examined in order to arrive at a profitable conclusion. I have been winning consistently big and now have bet limits placed on me. I am very surprised by this because my bets relatively speaking are not that big ($1000 parlays). I assumed that millions of dollars moved in and out of sports books. Why would they bother with little old me. Take care and bye for now.

**Grabaka** · 01-31-13, 10:08 PM

Hello man Good luck. Be like water

**Ron_Paul_2012** · 01-31-13, 10:39 PM

Hello Grabaka. I don't have any picks for tonights Bellator. I have a very tiny pick on Felix Sturm's fight tomorrow in Germany. I don't know if you combine boxing parlays with MMA. If you do, Gennady Golovkin will go unbeaten for at least the next 2 years. Adrian Broner is another Boxer who is money in the bank for the next couple of years. I've been watching boxing since the early 80's. Take care and bye for now.

**Grabaka** · 02-01-13, 12:44 AM

Originally posted by Ron_Paul_2012

Hello Grabaka. I don't have any picks for tonights Bellator. I have a very tiny pick on Felix Sturm's fight tomorrow in Germany. I don't know if you combine boxing parlays with MMA. If you do, Gennady Golovkin will go unbeaten for at least the next 2 years. Adrian Broner is another Boxer who is money in the bank for the next couple of years. I've been watching boxing since the early 80's. Take care and bye for now.

I believe Soliman has a good shot considering the odds, i have a small play on him. Agreed on Golovkin. GL amigo

MD · 02-01-13, 12:55 AM

Awwww shit V, might be time to throw down. You familiar with PropPlayer, intranetz gambling legend? Guy's talking mad shit about us SBR homos.

**BIGDAY** · 02-01-13, 01:25 AM

Originally posted by Ron_Paul_2012

This message is for entertainment purposes only. I understand that gambling is illegal etc... Hello. I am new to online betting. However, I have been watching MMA since UFC 1 and been watching boxing since the early 80's. I have increased my bank roll by %2600 over the course of 7 months. A couple days ago I received a message for the first time that limited the amount I could wager. I have come to discover that this is done to all consistent winners. My question is: Do winners keep getting their bet limit reduced? Also are my results typical for high level/professional gamblers. I am new to gambling. However, I have noticed from the different podcasts that I have listened to over the last seven months is seems to me that most people do not have a clue as to what their looking at. I have been participating in various martial arts since the age of 4 and have a very good understanding of MMA and Boxing. I believe that has contributed greatly to my understanding of how fights will play out. I wish everyone here good luck on all future endeavors. Ooh and congratulations Vaughany! Keep up the good work!

For anyone interested my UFC 156 picks are: parlay Reem and Evans (Big) and parlay Reem, Evans and Volkman (medium) and parlay Reem, Evans, and Edgar (small). Take care and remember "It's about the journey."

Find a local pal.

Offshore is for action and fun.

**Ron_Paul_2012** · 02-01-13, 01:28 AM

I agree with you that Soliman has a good shot vs Sturm. The odds should be closer than they are. I went with Sturm because the fight takes place in Germany. You have a small play on Soliman. I have a very tiny play on Sturm. Since you watch a little boxing, I'll tell you about a couple of youtube guys that do great boxing break downs. The first guy is dwyer 70905 and the second guy is Gene G. You already seen my picks for UFC 156. Did you make all your picks for saturday?

**Vaughany** · 02-01-13, 04:06 AM

Originally posted by MD

Awwww shit V, might be time to throw down. You familiar with PropPlayer, intranetz gambling legend? Guy's talking mad shit about us SBR homos.

For realz son? Link me up to this shiiit and I'll go full Chris Brown on his ass

**Vaughany** · 02-01-13, 05:20 AM

It's all good boiis...Nandor is in the UFC! Future Champ y'all... http://www.groundandpound.de/mma/ame...c-zu-kaempfen/

MD · 02-01-13, 05:58 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

For realz son? Link me up to this shiiit and I'll go full Chris Brown on his ass

PM'd. He be trippin' Holmes.

**Vaughany** · 02-01-13, 07:18 AM

Originally posted by MD

PM'd. He be trippin' Holmes.

ha oh right, thought you meant he was dissin' us directly cuz!

MD · 02-01-13, 07:29 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

ha oh right, thought you meant he was dissin' us directly cuz!

I dunno bro, he seems to think SBR members are prettttty stupid.

**Vaughany** · 02-01-13, 07:31 AM

Originally posted by MD

I dunno bro, he seems to think SBR members are prettttty stupid.

ha he might be on to something to be fair

**Sacrelicious** · 02-01-13, 12:58 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

It's all good boiis...Nandor is in the UFC! Future Champ y'all... http://www.groundandpound.de/mma/ame...c-zu-kaempfen/

Fuuuukkk yeah! Let it be known here that I am going on the record as the first to state that Nandor is a darkhorse GOAT, you might even call him a "darkgoat", if you will. Total sleeper, this guy is gonna make some serious waves.

**jacktheknife** · 02-01-13, 06:31 PM

Am I a square for betting 2u straight up on Jacob Volkmann? It's just one of those fights I regret not betting on after.

**vikesbills24** · 02-01-13, 06:53 PM

ron_paul post proof of your 2700%......

**The iron sheik** · 02-02-13, 08:12 AM

It's over 9000!!!!!!111

**Vaughany** · 02-02-13, 08:39 AM

Probably due another burial tonight!...

1/31/13 12:08pm	$100.00	$96.24	Pending	2 Team Parlay
			Pending	2/2/13 8:00pm Props Fighting 1603 Hieron/Woodley goes 3 round distance -190* vs Fight won't go 3 round distance
			Pending	3/2/13 11:00pm Props Fighting 1004 Fight won't go 5 round distance -350* vs Stann/Silva goes 5 round distance

1/31/13 12:05pm	$50.00	$212.50	Pending	2/2/13 6:30pm Props Fighting 1907 Camus wins by 3 round decision +425* vs Not Camus by 3 round decision
1/31/13 12:05pm	$50.00	$161.50	Pending	2/2/13 6:00pm Props Fighting 2011 Rivera wins by 3 round decision +323* vs Not Rivera by 3 round decision

1/31/13 12:03pm	$100.00	$93.94	Pending	3 Team Parlay
			Pending	2/2/13 11:00pm Props Fighting 1057 Edgar/Aldo starts round 2 -515* vs Fight won't start round 2
			Pending	2/2/13 8:00pm Props Fighting 1610 Not Woodley inside distance -380* vs Woodley wins inside distance
			Pending	3/2/13 11:00pm Props Fighting 1004 Fight won't go 5 round distance -350* vs Stann/Silva goes 5 round distance

1/27/13 5:28pm	$200.00	$240.36	Pending	3 Team Parlay
			Pending	2/2/13 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1401 Joseph Benavidez -265* vs Ian McCall
			Pending	2/2/13 10:00pm Props Fighting 1204 Fight won't go 3 round distance -530* vs Overeem/Silva goes 3 round distance
			Pending	3/2/13 11:00pm Props Fighting 1004 Fight won't go 5 round distance -290* vs Stann/Silva goes 5 round distance

1/25/13 12:44pm	$155.00	$100.11	Pending	2 Team Parlay
			Pending	2/2/13 9:30pm Props Fighting 1204 Fight won't go 3 round distance -530* vs Overeem/Silva goes 3 round distance
			Pending	3/2/13 11:00pm Props Fighting 1004 Fight won't go 5 round distance -260* vs Stann/Silva goes 5 round distance

12/28/12 6:20pm

$138.00

$100.00

Pending

2/2/13 10:30pm Props Fighting 1111 Evans wins by 3 round decision -138* vs Not Evans by 3 round decision

2/2/13 9:54am

$10.00

$240.00

Pending

2/2/13 7:00pm Props Fighting 10021 Figueroa/Rivera award winner +2400* vs Any other bout is Fight of the Night

**varkolek** · 02-02-13, 08:42 AM

Originally posted by vikesbills24

ron_paul post proof of your 2700%......

26 times increase isn't unbelievable. In a separate post Ron Paul said he simultaneously bet 90% of bankroll on 1 parlay, and the remaining 10% on another. With King Mo included in both parlays. You'd expect a lot of growth going all in repeatedly.

I think it's a bad idea because if betting for value instead of wins, losing everything is fairly certain if going all in. If I bet my whole bankroll at once, like 2 bets at 90% and 10%, I'm pretty sure I'd lose everything pretty soon.

**Beelzebubzy** · 02-02-13, 09:59 AM

Dude, Rivera by KO is a lock!!!!
Here is my tardlay +374

Pending	6 Team Parlay
		Pending	3/16/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Georges St-Pierre -470* vs Nick Diaz
		Pending	4/27/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jon Jones -1100* vs Chael Sonnen
		Pending	2/2/13 11:59pm Props Fighting 1057 Edgar/Aldo starts round 2 -580* vs Fight won't start round 2
		Pending	2/2/13 11:30pm Props Fighting 1132 Any other result -6475* vs Evans wins by submission
		Pending	2/2/13 7:00pm Props Fighting 2021 Rivera wins by TKO/KO +150* vs Any other result
		Pending	3/2/13 11:00pm Props Fighting 1004 Fight won't go 5 round distance -490* vs Stann/Silva goes 5 round distance

**Vaughany** · 02-02-13, 10:38 AM

dunno bro, might look like the Soto fight, Figueroa is a tough mofo

**Beelzebubzy** · 02-02-13, 12:14 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

dunno bro, might look like the Soto fight, Figueroa is a tough mofo

Yeah I agree. He gets tagged quite a bit though.

**Dwil125** · 02-02-13, 12:57 PM

Figueroa might just be the worst fighter on the ufc roster, but he is tough lol.

**Vaughany** · 02-02-13, 01:18 PM

Originally posted by Dwil125

Figueroa might just be the worst fighter on the ufc roster, but he is tough lol.

yeah, he seems to have regressed rather than improved since that McDonald fight!

**getlucky2win** · 02-02-13, 01:51 PM

i think the benavidez line is too high. he should be a fav but i c this as a close fight. i think uncle creepy is close2 even in all areas. the gf thing bothers me a lil but if line gets better close2 fight i will bet a lil. can u breakdown why u like benavidez at this line?

**The iron sheik** · 02-02-13, 02:00 PM

hmh, ubereem, rashad and aldo with a little side serving of fitch and thats all this time

not much to bet on imo

**Sykes** · 02-02-13, 02:05 PM

GL tonight man, im on my biggest bet before its on is Evens ITD @ 3.75 personally think that's printing $.

MD · 02-02-13, 02:15 PM

Originally posted by Sykes

GL tonight man, im on my biggest bet before its on is Evens ITD @ 3.75 personally think that's printing $.

You should be careful with that. Evans isn't exactly a big finisher; he couldn't finish a 205 Bisping a few years back, nor could he finish Phil Davis, who is notorious for his inability to take a punch; not only that, but Nogueira is the better technical striker. That's not to say that Evans can't out-work him on the feet, but if he does, it will be due to his athleticism and speed, and Nogueira's declining physical condition. Evans by decision is the money.

**Sykes** · 02-02-13, 02:38 PM

I agree, but Lil Nog has been absolutely crap in the UFC, I did lose my biggest ever bet against him by going for Ortiz, Im hoping for a similar type of finish Evens had against him. I do seem to be the only one thinking that though :fingerscrossed.

MD · 02-02-13, 03:37 PM

Originally posted by Sykes

I agree, but Lil Nog has been absolutely crap in the UFC, I did lose my biggest ever bet against him by going for Ortiz, Im hoping for a similar type of finish Evens had against him. I do seem to be the only one thinking that though :fingerscrossed.

I wouldn't be too concerned with being the only one thinking something, in general. Going against the public has profited me to a great degree; I cashed Molina by decision +260 last night after pounding the prop at multiple sites, and at worse odds than that. Molina is a decisioning machine. Crazy odds. It does demand that you examine your logic and determine that it really is sound, though. Be sure you didn't miss anything. Nogueira is a tough, tough guy, and Rashad is going to be putting him on his back early and often.

**Sacrelicious** · 02-02-13, 03:44 PM

I'm on Rashad straight, if you are playing a prop, its by decision, not ITD. ITD is a very big gamble in my opinion.