Vaughany's MMA Picks...

**Vaughany** · 02-10-12, 05:10 PM

Tempted to play Len Cook as underdog to beat Chris Wright at the XFC event tonight. Think he has superior ground game and can get a sub or eek out a decision. He's been sharpening his stand-up with Ludwig as well. Only think stopping me from playing him is that he only fought three weeks ago and took some damage.

Also wouldnt be tht surpised if some other dogs won. Could see Varner getting submitted by Fickett, Gormley grinding out a decision against Sayles. Got some SBR points on Matts Nilsson to beat Speers as well.

**GunShard** · 02-10-12, 07:55 PM

I just watched this entertaining mismatch, lol.

**MMAbetMASTA** · 02-10-12, 10:42 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

lol

DAMN!!!!!

Is that his girl or just some random tail?

I have yet to get me some Brazilian ass... I swear all those birds out there have BANGIN'

and ass, nothing but bust out there!!! More cushion for the pushin' Hahaaaaaa!

**fitguy67** · 02-10-12, 11:43 PM

Hey, V and regulars...I've been a big UFC fan since UFC1, and have a few years of betting on major-team-sports...but have never bet UFC/MMA. You've got a long-term investment-grade record and I'd like to tail along "recipe style" for the next few events...until i start to develop my own feel for the game.

Big question for me at this stage is this...How many units constitutes your bankroll. I would guess you'd need at least 500 units to play your picks and maintain the ability to sleep soundly (ie. each unit represents 0.2% of bank)...How big are your units relative to your bank?

Appreciate any guidance on this.

**Beelzebubzy** · 02-11-12, 02:30 PM

Wonderboy vs
Matt brown is signed

**ddream1** · 02-11-12, 04:40 PM

that should be fun, brown manages to tie him up, use the fence and clinch, maybe even drag him down he can win this easily i think, think we would get dog odds on brown?

**Beelzebubzy** · 02-12-12, 04:00 PM

Markes down to -108

**Beelzebubzy** · 02-12-12, 06:52 PM

Hendricks vs Kos on fox!

**Vaughany** · 02-13-12, 04:27 AM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

Hendricks vs Kos on fox!

Yeahh, be interesting to see the opening lines on that

**Vaughany** · 02-13-12, 04:27 AM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

Markes down to -108

yeah gotta decide whether to arb out, or have Simpson by decision as a hedge... decisions decisions

**Vaughany** · 02-13-12, 04:28 AM

Originally posted by MMAbetMASTA

DAMN!!!!!

Is that his girl or just some random tail?

I have yet to get me some Brazilian ass... I swear all those birds out there have BANGIN'

and ass, nothing but bust out there!!! More cushion for the pushin' Hahaaaaaa!

His wife I believe. ha yeah, dont think I've ever even encountered a Brazilian girl over here!

**Vitooch** · 02-13-12, 01:11 PM

Hey V, do you know what Wonderboy's TDD and grappling in general is like. I don't think we can really take too much from his debut. Stittgen's takedown attempts were very slow and telegraphed. How do you think he would fare against an experienced grappler like Brown?

**gabe** · 02-13-12, 01:16 PM

The best part about dating a Mexican girl is you get to tell your buddies she's Brazilian.

**gabe** · 02-13-12, 01:19 PM

Originally posted by Vitooch

Hey V, do you know what Wonderboy's TDD and grappling in general is like. I don't think we can really take too much from his debut. Stittgen's takedown attempts were very slow and telegraphed. How do you think he would fare against an experienced grappler like Brown?

I think he's mentioned that wrestling is his fav part of MMA - he trains with GSP's wrestling coaches, too, I think, right?

I don't think Brown could get him to the ground. I really don't. And if he did, Thompson strikes me as someone who wouldn't stay on the bottom and get beat, I think he would get back to his feet pretty fast. Getting him as a dog against Brown would be better than when I got Seth B as a +130 dog against him. (was one of my locks)

**Vitooch** · 02-13-12, 01:38 PM

Originally posted by gabe

I think he's mentioned that wrestling is his fav part of MMA - he trains with GSP's wrestling coaches, too, I think, right?

I don't think Brown could get him to the ground. I really don't. And if he did, Thompson strikes me as someone who wouldn't stay on the bottom and get beat, I think he would get back to his feet pretty fast. Getting him as a dog against Brown would be better than when I got Seth B as a +130 dog against him. (was one of my locks)

Hate to make this comparison but Thompson reminds me of Machida and Gustaffson in terms of their stances. All three are rangy fighters that can cover distance quickly. This makes it difficult for opponents to gauge and correctly time their takedowns. Brown's wrestling isn't anything special, and I like you said, I don't think he will be able to control and smother Thompson for three rounds. Looking forward to seeing the odds on this one.

**Vaughany** · 02-13-12, 01:57 PM

Originally posted by gabe

I think he's mentioned that wrestling is his fav part of MMA - he trains with GSP's wrestling coaches, too, I think, right?

I don't think Brown could get him to the ground. I really don't. And if he did, Thompson strikes me as someone who wouldn't stay on the bottom and get beat, I think he would get back to his feet pretty fast. Getting him as a dog against Brown would be better than when I got Seth B as a +130 dog against him. (was one of my locks)

Originally posted by Vitooch

Hate to make this comparison but Thompson reminds me of Machida and Gustaffson in terms of their stances. All three are rangy fighters that can cover distance quickly. This makes it difficult for opponents to gauge and correctly time their takedowns. Brown's wrestling isn't anything special, and I like you said, I don't think he will be able to control and smother Thompson for three rounds. Looking forward to seeing the odds on this one.

Doubt ur get Thompson as underdog. His hype machine is fully underway after tht KO and people are happily going to continue to fade Brown against anybody half decent.

He only trains wrestling with GSP's coaches when he is in GSP's camp which has been a few times. He didnt say it was his favourite part of Martial Arts, he just said that he felt after striking that he was strongest in wrestling. He's a black belt in BJJ under his brother-in-law but we've never seen it in action as far as I'm aware so I know as much as you! But as you say Vitooch, his style in terms of movement and stance alone will make it harder for him to be taken down. He isnt a Paul Daley or Dan Hardy type fighter who is constantly planting their feet looking for power shots which makes it easier to shoot in on. He likes to keep throwing the push kicks and side kicks as well so that can make it harder to get the takedown, unless u can catch the leg and work from there. He has great balance tho, that is for sure. Very interesting fight.

**Vaughany** · 02-13-12, 02:43 PM

Sapp vs Rolles! ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...v=N2lycXRL6os#!

**fosho14** · 02-13-12, 03:59 PM

is albert a good dog pick, or is this gonna be menjivar all day?

**Vaughany** · 02-13-12, 04:24 PM

Originally posted by fosho14

is albert a good dog pick, or is this gonna be menjivar all day?

I'd of taken Albert at +285 opener on sportsbook. I'll be playing him by decision at +500 or better if it becomes available which is unlikely. He's a big strong BW, its a big step up in competition but he might surprise a lot of people in this one. He may well lose but I think it will be closer than opening line would suggest. Problem is that aside from the massive experience advantage, Menjivar is also extremely durable - not been finished since 2002 when he was fighting at WW and LW

**fosho14** · 02-13-12, 04:38 PM

Ya I know its not a great price, but I'm fairly certain he takes this against albert. I cannot see albert winning. I'll add this to a parlay.

**Vaughany** · 02-13-12, 04:39 PM

Albert is also very tough - could get subbed but I think this goes the distance. He was only dude not to get finished by Dodson

**Digo** · 02-13-12, 08:34 PM

Originally posted by gabe

The best part about dating a Mexican girl is you get to tell your buddies she's Brazilian.

You guys are overestimating our women...Of course, you can find these big ass' girls with perfect body and tanned skin, but most are quite "normal", only one in ten is like the ones you see on redtube and carnival. By the way, with Vaugh's profit in the last UFC. he can have his best night ever with two of these "one in ten" girls in Rio.

**gabe** · 02-13-12, 09:01 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Albert is also very tough - could get subbed but I think this goes the distance. He was only dude not to get finished by Dodson

Dodson could have finished him, as Jason Miller pointed out, but he spared him the KO because they're friends.

**Vaughany** · 02-14-12, 05:40 AM

Dave Herman...Not a fan of Jiu-Jitsu!. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lhdrkSGM9_4

"I did not knit this scarf...I weaved it"!

**bjpenn85** · 02-14-12, 06:19 AM

At the place called help for instance?

**Sano** · 02-14-12, 09:29 AM

I can't believe you guys got Markes at +140+

I slept on that one and just saw the odds today, it's at evens now. Not sure if there is still enough value. What do you guys think?

**Vaughany** · 02-14-12, 09:36 AM

I wouldnt of played him at worse than +120.

**Sano** · 02-14-12, 09:43 AM

I figured as much. To bad, oh well.

You must have some faith in him to almost play 18 units on him though.

**Vaughany** · 02-14-12, 09:54 AM

Originally posted by Sano

I figured as much. To bad, oh well.

You must have some faith in him to almost play 18 units on him though.

I had faith in the public betting on him to the point where he's the favourite more than having faith in him winning! I now have opportunity to arb out for risk-free profit of about 7 to 9 units or can hedge with Simpson by decision at a reasonable plus number. I still think A-Train might end up +125 to +140 range by fight time once people see that Markes weighed-in okay and looks bigger

**Sano** · 02-14-12, 10:27 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

I had faith in the public betting on him to the point where he's the favourite more than having faith in him winning! I now have opportunity to arb out for risk-free profit of about 7 to 9 units or can hedge with Simpson by decision at a reasonable plus number. I still think A-Train might end up +125 to +140 range by fight time once people see that Markes weighed-in okay and looks bigger

You are a smart man.

**Beelzebubzy** · 02-14-12, 01:42 PM

Rory -350

and Schaub opened -350 which is redic.

been bet down to -180

**v1y** · 02-14-12, 02:21 PM

schaub -185 is a straight up gift. too bad 5dimes limits me (and presumably everyone else) to 1 unit bets on openers.

**PunisherIND** · 02-14-12, 02:36 PM

Originally posted by v1y

schaub -185 is a straight up gift. too bad 5dimes limits me (and presumably everyone else) to 1 unit bets on openers.

i would've been all over this had i seen it. unfortunately i only saw the -350 opener and now its back to -260.

**Vaughany** · 02-14-12, 05:56 PM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

Rory -350

and Schaub opened -350 which is redic.

been bet down to -180

Originally posted by v1y

schaub -185 is a straight up gift. too bad 5dimes limits me (and presumably everyone else) to 1 unit bets on openers.

Shiit was at a football match (soccer!) all evening. So people actually bet Rothwell all the way down to Schaub at -185!??

**MMAbetMASTA** · 02-14-12, 08:12 PM

Originally posted by Digo

You guys are overestimating our women...Of course, you can find these big ass' girls with perfect body and tanned skin, but most are quite "normal", only one in ten is like the ones you see on redtube and carnival. By the way, with Vaugh's profit in the last UFC. he can have his best night ever with two of these "one in ten" girls in Rio.

I don't know about that, my friend. Some of your Brasilian women have a very nice ethnic blend - european, south american, and african. Very unique mix to me. While this blend can be found elsewhere in the world, it seems abundant in Brasil.

I've traveled the world quite a bit and I gotta say the most beautiful women I've seen have come from South America, especially Argentinia and Brasil. This is just my opinion and taste, obviously (although I haven't tasted a true Brasilian women before lol)....

Yet you live there so I hope what you said isn't true about the '1 in 10'....!!!!!