Vaughany's MMA Picks...

**Vaughany** · 02-06-12, 04:19 AM

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**Vaughany** · 02-06-12, 05:19 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

UFC 143 Review:

Total stake: 136.442 units

Return: 214.763 units

Profit: +78.321 units (+80.938 units inc' arbs)

Have the following pending parlays going strong coming off of UFC 143:

Parlay: 6.25 units on Sonnen (-350), & Ellenberger (-250) to win 5 units;

Parlay (double): 6.25 units on Poirier (-400), & Ellenberger (-250) to win 4.669 units;

Parlay (double): 10 units on Thompson (-250), & Ellenberger (-250) to win 9.6 units;

Parlay: 0.324 units on Woodley/Mein Over 2.5 Rounds, Evans (-140), Condit (+145), & Benson Henderson (+105) to win 4.107 units.

‎"Dont take anything for granted when your fighting me. If you assume you have an edge here or that you're gonna dominate me there, you know you better think again man...Cause Im gonna F**K YOU UP!!!"

Record review:

Since Bellator 26 (August 26th 2010):

Bellator 26: +0.45 units
UFC 118: +6.11 units
MFC Retribution: -1.6 units
UFC Fight Night 22: +5.55 units
UFC 119: +1.5 units
WEC 51: +1.07 units
Cage Warriors 38: +11 units
Strikeforce Diaz vs Noons 2: +2.417 units
UFC 120: -0.589 units
UFC 121: +9.011 units
WEC 52: -1.274 units
UFC 122: +17.355 units
Strikeforce Challengers 12: +0.865 units
UFC 123: +1.609 units
TUF 12 Finale: +9.556 units
K1 Grand Prix 2010 Review: +1.1 units
UFC 124: +5.135 units
WEC 53: +0.059 units
Sengoku Soul of Fight & Dream Dynamite: +1.354 units
UFC 125: +3.095 units
UFC Fight for the Troops 2: +3.961 units
UFC 126: +24.577 units
Strikeforce: Fedor vs Silva: +0.941 units
MFC 28 Supremacy: +8.594 units
BAMMA 5: +0.84 units
UFC 127: +10.945 units
UFC Live on Versus 3: +11.622 units
Strikeforce Columbus: -1.4 units
UFC 128: +22.131 units
Bellator 38: +4.875 units
UFC Fight Night 24: +44.283 units
Bellator 40: +2.325 units
Strikeforce Diaz vs Daley: -5.527 units
Bellator 41: -0.7 units
UFC 129: +77.484 units

(Not including risk-free arbs on record from UFC 130 onwards):

UFC 130: +45.077 units
TUF 13 Finale: -16.766 units
UFC 131: +17.688 units
Strikeforce: Overeem vs Werdum: +11.474 units
UFC Versus 4: +25.288 units
UFC 132: +1.783 units
Cage Warriors 43: +1.308 units
Strikeforce: Henderson vs Fedor: +3.274 units
UFC 133: -12.302 units
UFC Versus 5: -5.073 units
UFC 134 : -10.214 units
UFC Battle on the Bayou: +20.466
Titan Fighting Championships 19: -1.863 units
UFC 135: +53.938 units
UFC Versus 6: +4.021 units
UFC 136: -33.134 units
Bellator 55: -5.731 units
UFC 137: +4.337 units (+10.151 units inc’ arb)
UFC 138: +57.692 units
UFC on FOX: +5.087 units (+121.575 units inc' arbs)
UFC 139: +15.24 units (+28.647 units inc' arbs)
UFC 140: -15.065 units
UFC 141: +70.166 units (+78.399 units inc' arbs)
Strikeforce: Rockhold vs Jardine: +0.664 units
UFC 142: +19.627 units (+44.333 units inc' arbs)
UFC on FX 1: +19.764 units (+24.264 units inc' arb)
UFC on FOX 2: +36.222 units (+38.571 units inc' arbs)
UFC 143: +78.321 units (+80.938 units inc' arbs)

Total profit (excluding arbs): +670.012 units

**Vaughany** · 02-06-12, 07:38 AM

Originally posted by xelance

what up V? You are a genius

ha Thank you bruva! Not seen u on here for a while?

**Vaughany** · 02-06-12, 09:35 AM

Explains Koscheck's lackadaisical performance...

For his fight on Saturday night, Koscheck admits that his training camp was a rocky place where he felt he had no home. In his bout with Mike Pierce, the former welterweight title contender looked flat at certain times and just didn’t seem himself inside the cage.

The end result was still a win, but it wasn’t the way that Koscheck wanted to perform.

“It was a horrible training camp because of that. I basically trained myself the whole last training camp. Actually more than that, it’s been the last 3 or 4 training camps, I trained myself. So it’s like why be away from Fresno where I have two gyms I build, I have an amazing house, I have amazing family here and friends, and people that support me here. I can’t do that. Had I stayed there my career would only be one or two more fights,” Koscheck admitted.

“There was a lot of poison going on around there and I’m really disappointed because we had a good thing going. It was a good thing and I think people’s egos got in the way. Well, not people just Javier, his ego got in the way, and too many cameras in the gym and him trying to build himself up and his brand, his AKA brand, which is fine I understand that, but it should never take precedence over training guys. As a head coach of a gym and he says he’s the man, he’s the boss over there, he should have the responsibility to make the fighters as best as we possibly could be, but he never did that.”

**Beelzebubzy** · 02-06-12, 10:09 AM

Kos should just try to outwrestle everyone. His shots were impressive. His striking is overrated

**Beelzebubzy** · 02-06-12, 10:49 AM

UFC 145 - Wikipedia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_145

The Poster is hilarious!

**gabe** · 02-06-12, 02:09 PM

yea lol sounds like a new action hero movie

**Vaughany** · 02-06-12, 02:11 PM

ha yeah, love how there is no mention of Evans

**Beelzebubzy** · 02-06-12, 02:27 PM

According to the BallinBlades Prediction Win Percentage

I went 9 for 11. I get the Caceres fight pick right cause if you add the two points he wins. Thank you BB for your Adjusted Percentage calcuation. (Ballin Blades Adjusted Win Percentage

Bubzy UFC 143 BBAWP - 82&

**gabe** · 02-06-12, 03:20 PM

lol i had a perfect betting night too, i consider caceres and diaz wins. can we get chandler blades to talk my bookie into seeing it the same way?

**Vitooch** · 02-06-12, 03:50 PM

Diaz lost that fight.

**gabe** · 02-06-12, 04:33 PM

Nope, I watched it again last night along with friends who were watching it for the first time. I asked them who they thought won at the end of every round, and at the end of rounds 1, 2, and 5, they all said Diaz. And I still agreed with them upon my second viewing. Does octagon control not mean anything? It is superior to leg kicks, IMO.

**Vitooch** · 02-06-12, 04:46 PM

I think significant strikes is more important than control in this case. Condit came in with a better strategy. He circled away from the cage whenever Diaz tried to bury him with those high volume barrage of punches, but failed. There wasnt one round Diaz definitively won. Condit won rounds 3 and 4. Rounds 1 and 2 were very close, as was round 5. I would have to give Condit atleast one of those three close rounds.

**Vitooch** · 02-06-12, 04:48 PM

When a fighter counteracts your own strategy, you make your adjustments. You do not taunt your opponent and continue with that same unsuccessful strategy. I refuse to consider that a winning performance by Diaz.

**Vaughany** · 02-06-12, 05:09 PM

Originally posted by gabe

Nope, I watched it again last night along with friends who were watching it for the first time. I asked them who they thought won at the end of every round, and at the end of rounds 1, 2, and 5, they all said Diaz. And I still agreed with them upon my second viewing. Does octagon control not mean anything? It is superior to leg kicks, IMO.

Depends how u define "octagon control". A lot of people think octagon control is when the guy is standing in the middle and/or is the guy who is pushing forward. But the definition of octagon control is actually "who dictates where the fight takes place". As somebody said on a forum somewhere...Diaz wanted it against the cage. Condit didn't. And so, through effectively cutting angles, he chose where/and when to engage. If Diaz had effectively cut off the octagon to prevent Condit from escaping, then you'd have to award him the control. I personally think there should be a rematch a la Penn and Edgar and then we can see Condit do the same as Frankie and win again but in a more dominating fashion!

**Beelzebubzy** · 02-06-12, 05:14 PM

I scored it for Condit. 1-4 based upon striking obviously 5 was diaz based upon a takedown and submission attempt

I also scored Edgar Maynard 2 for Edgar, Shogun/Machida 1 for Shogun and Franklin/Hendo for Franklin.

**NunyaBidness** · 02-06-12, 05:17 PM

Originally posted by gabe

Nope, I watched it again last night along with friends who were watching it for the first time. I asked them who they thought won at the end of every round, and at the end of rounds 1, 2, and 5, they all said Diaz. And I still agreed with them upon my second viewing. Does octagon control not mean anything? It is superior to leg kicks, IMO.

Every major media outlet gave the fight to condit. With many of them scoring it 49-46. Cecil Peoples gave it to Condit. Peoples is on the record saying that he doesn't score leg kicks, he still gave Condit the fight.

Condit landed more strikes.

If Octagon control means something, then it should be awarded to Condit, he dictated where the fight took place. If you define 'octagon control' as 'walking forward and eating punches' then yes, Diaz wins the walking forward phase of scoring.

**Beelzebubzy** · 02-06-12, 05:20 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Every major media outlet gave the fight to condit. With many of them scoring it 49-46. Cecil Peoples gave it to Condit. Peoples is on the record saying that he doesn't score leg kicks, he still gave Condit the fight.

Condit landed more strikes.

If Octagon control means something, then it should be awarded to Condit, he dictated where the fight took place. If you define 'octagon control' as 'walking forward and eating punches' then yes, Diaz wins the walking forward phase of scoring.

The counter argument is that fighters and Pat Miletich gave it to Diaz. Chandler Blades has yet to comment.

Lets focus on the positive. Matt Riddle has another fight in the UFC.

We can FADE HIM

**TheCalculator** · 02-06-12, 05:24 PM

UNIT QUESTION:

Hey Vaughany,

Now that you've basically increased your bankroll 7X (without counting arbs) -- is your unit size 7X compared to the beginning? Or is a unit still worth $10?

**Vaughany** · 02-06-12, 05:29 PM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

The counter argument is that fighters and Pat Miletich gave it to Diaz. Chandler Blades has yet to comment.

Lets focus on the positive. Matt Riddle has another fight in the UFC.

We can FADE HIM

lol Riddle is horrible! Tht crazy blitz at the end of round 2 was comedy

**Vaughany** · 02-06-12, 05:31 PM

Originally posted by TheCalculator

UNIT QUESTION:

Hey Vaughany,

Now that you've basically increased your bankroll 7X (without counting arbs) -- is your unit size 7X compared to the beginning? Or is a unit still worth $10?

Unit is £10 so about $15.80. I'll change it at some point but easier to keep it as it is for now

**Beelzebubzy** · 02-06-12, 05:36 PM

V
What has a better ROI your Retirement Plan or your MMA Betting?

**Vaughany** · 02-06-12, 05:37 PM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

V
What has a better ROI your Retirement Plan or your MMA Betting?

ha My retirement plan is non-existant so currently my MMA betting!

**Vaughany** · 02-06-12, 05:56 PM

UFC on FUEL TV 1 plays so far:

Parlay: 6.25 units on Sonnen (-350), & Ellenberger (-250) to win 5 units;

Parlay (double): 6.25 units on Poirier (-400), & Ellenberger (-250) to win 4.669 units;

Parlay (double): 10 units on Thompson (-250), & Ellenberger (-250) to win 9.6 units;

Parlay: 1.605 units on Rivera/Schafer Under 2.5 Rounds (-205), Not Guillard by Submission (-11000), Ellenberger (-255), & Ben Henderson (+105) to win 5.272 units;

10.329 units on Herman at -117.65 to win 8.78 units;

7.51 units on Herman at -120 to win 6.258 units.

**Vaughany** · 02-06-12, 06:04 PM

...

**Vaughany** · 02-06-12, 06:06 PM

**Vaughany** · 02-06-12, 06:06 PM

...

**gabe** · 02-06-12, 06:08 PM

Originally posted by Vitooch

I think significant strikes is more important than control in this case. Condit came in with a better strategy. He circled away from the cage whenever Diaz tried to bury him with those high volume barrage of punches, but failed. There wasnt one round Diaz definitively won. Condit won rounds 3 and 4. Rounds 1 and 2 were very close, as was round 5. I would have to give Condit atleast one of those three close rounds.

You're right, and Diaz had the better strikes. Condit only caught him with a few good ones while Diaz landed a shitload of good shots on him.

Nothing close about the first two rounds. Round five was close until the end where Diaz clearly took it.

**gabe** · 02-06-12, 06:10 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Depends how u define "octagon control". A lot of people think octagon control is when the guy is standing in the middle and/or is the guy who is pushing forward. But the definition of octagon control is actually "who dictates where the fight takes place". As somebody said on a forum somewhere...Diaz wanted it against the cage. Condit didn't. And so, through effectively cutting angles, he chose where/and when to engage. If Diaz had effectively cut off the octagon to prevent Condit from escaping, then you'd have to award him the control. I personally think there should be a rematch a la Penn and Edgar and then we can see Condit do the same as Frankie and win again but in a more dominating fashion!

Octagon control is who controls the octogon, which Diaz clearly did. He was like a lion chasing a donkey.

**Vaughany** · 02-06-12, 06:12 PM

Originally posted by gabe

Octagon control is who controls the octogon, which Diaz clearly did. He was like a lion chasing a donkey.

As I've just said, octagon control is "dictating where the fight takes place"...which Condit clearly did for the most part.

**Vaughany** · 02-06-12, 06:13 PM

Best octagon control ever from Riddle...

**v1y** · 02-06-12, 06:48 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

UFC on FUEL TV 1 plays so far:

Parlay: 6.25 units on Sonnen (-350), & Ellenberger (-250) to win 5 units;

Parlay (double): 6.25 units on Poirier (-400), & Ellenberger (-250) to win 4.669 units;

Parlay (double): 10 units on Thompson (-250), & Ellenberger (-250) to win 9.6 units;

Parlay: 1.605 units on Rivera/Schafer Under 2.5 Rounds (-205), Not Guillard by Submission (-11000), Ellenberger (-255), & Ben Henderson (+105) to win 5.272 units;

10.329 units on Herman at -117.65 to win 8.78 units;

7.51 units on Herman at -120 to win 6.258 units.

no idea why i hit herman so hard at -135 on 5dimes...

he better pull through.

**Vaughany** · 02-06-12, 06:53 PM

Originally posted by v1y

no idea why i hit herman so hard at -135 on 5dimes...

he better pull through.

ha Could of easily gone up to -150 or something. I thought he'd of got more action by now to be honest which is why I maxed him on two different sites at the -117 and -120.

It's his fight to lose. Only way Struve subs him is if Herman takes it to the ground and if he gets sloppy once it gets to the ground. I don't see Struve getting it to the ground himself unless he pulls guard. Fact of the matter is that I'm still not convinced that Struve had improved enough in his defensive abilities - especially head-movement and footwork, and Herman obviously has power which doesn't bode well for Struve.

**Sano** · 02-06-12, 07:09 PM

I was wondering, which site is best for MMA betting? I know there are several good ones, but if you'd have to choose one. Bodog? Also, it has to be accessible for a european like me.

**Beelzebubzy** · 02-06-12, 07:42 PM

I agree with v
Moreover Struve doesn't have the takedowns to get this to the mat. Also strive has a decent chin morecraft put a Beating on him and he survived.

The reason I am taking Herman is that Struve doesnt use his reach well. I think Herman can get inside and land on his chin