Vaughany's MMA Picks...

**gabe** · 01-28-12, 05:34 AM

i don't think you're serious when you use "brah" lol

**Vaughany** · 01-28-12, 07:29 AM

ha Got me

**Vaughany** · 01-28-12, 08:01 AM

Liam Neeson on Life's Too Short (genius!)!... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjkmm...eature=related

**Sano** · 01-28-12, 09:33 AM

After your heads up Vaughany, I watched both the entire Extras and Life's Too Short series since like two days ago lol. Brilliant stuff, cheers mate.

**blumpkin** · 01-28-12, 09:57 AM

Yo V, curious if you could give us a breakdown on the Maia fight. if you already did i apologize.

**Vaughany** · 01-28-12, 11:02 AM

Originally posted by blumpkin

Yo V, curious if you could give us a breakdown on the Maia fight. if you already did i apologize.

Most my plays on this rely on it going at least a round. I'm pretty confident this one goes the distance. A lot depends on whether Weidman is confident enough to use his wrestling offensively. From seeing and reading interviews with him and Danaher they would suggest that he is confident that he can take Maia down and not get submitted and I tend to agree. With him coming in on short notice I expect Weidman to look to just control him on the ground and try and steal rounds with takedowns and perhaps hold Maia agaisnt the fence just to show "octagon control" and get the nod from the judges. Basically I like Weidman to get the decision. Small chance of a TKO from Weidman through GnP but unlikely.

**Vaughany** · 01-28-12, 11:04 AM

Originally posted by Sano

After your heads up Vaughany, I watched both the entire Extras and Life's Too Short series since like two days ago lol. Brilliant stuff, cheers mate.

ha Nice one

Extras was superb. Where u from btw?

**Vaughany** · 01-28-12, 12:09 PM

Adding:

Parlay: 6.362 units on Juventus/Udinese: Either team to Not Score 4 or more goals (-927), Maia/Weidman to Start Round 2 (-488), Sonnen/Bisping to Start Round 2 (-675), & Evans/Davis to Start Round 2 (-403) to win 5.809 units;

Parlay: 0.636 units on Juventus (-179), Maia/Weidman to Start Round 2 (-488), & Napoli/Genoa Over 2.5 Goals (-111) to win 1.635 units.

5 units on Phil Davis SOTN at +1000 to win 50 units;

0.125 units on Phil Davis SOTN at +1200 to win 1.5 units;

hedged with:

35 units on Not Phil Davis by Submission at -670 to win 5.224 units.

If Mr Wonderful wins by Submission he will get SOTN seeing as it's main event, Rashad has never been submitted, and he's the underdog.

Also got Not Maia Submission of the Night at -420, and Maia SOTN at +800 and +900 so will make a risk free 21.8 units profit if Maia gets SOTN, or 0.316 units if not.

**Sano** · 01-28-12, 12:40 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

ha Nice one

Extras was superb. Where u from btw?

Yeah I really liked the "Christmas special" ending also. Was surprised with Gervais' acting. Touching

Haha, I'm from Denmark, the 'cheers mate' just seemed natural. Must be all the UK based comedies I have been wathcing lately

Btw. The place I use for betting is really crappy. I am about to switch to another one. There I can only choose winner of the fights.

My picks this time have been.

Moderate on Sonnen
Moderate on Rashad
Small on Maia (Because of the odds)
Small on Roop (Again, favourable odds)

Otherwise not alot of value on this card imo. I have a few singles for some strong underdogs, but it's just small amounts.

**The Fobfather** · 01-28-12, 12:47 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Adding: Parlay: 6.362 units on Juventus/Udinese: Either team to Not Score 4 or more goals (-927), Maia/Weidman to Start Round 2 (-488), Sonnen/Bisping to Start Round 2 (-675), & Evans/Davis to Start Round 2 (-403) to win 5.809 units; Parlay: 0.636 units on Juventus (-179), Maia/Weidman to Start Round 2 (-488), & Napoli/Genoa Over 2.5 Goals (-111) to win 1.635 units. 5 units on Phil Davis SOTN at +1000 to win 50 units; 0.125 units on Phil Davis SOTN at +1200 to win 1.5 units; hedged with: 35 units on Not Phil Davis by Submission at -670 to win 5.224 units. If Mr Wonderful wins by Submission he will get SOTN seeing as it's main event, Rashad has never been submitted, and he's the underdog. Also got Not Maia Submission of the Night at -420, and Maia SOTN at +800 and +900 so will make a risk free 21.8 units profit if Maia gets SOTN, or 0.316 units if not.

Damn V, always quick on the draw. Were both of the Maia SOTN bets on the same sportsbook?

**Vaughany** · 01-28-12, 12:52 PM

Originally posted by The Fobfather

Damn V, always quick on the draw. Were both of the Maia SOTN bets on the same sportsbook?

Maia SOTN on paddy and skybet (have ridiculously low bet limits on paddy tho). For some reason skybet dont put limits on their FOTN, SOTN and KOTN. Just got Bisping at +3300 SOTN as well arbed with Not Bisping SOTN at -1500!

**mikea33** · 01-28-12, 12:55 PM

Hey, Vaughany, always followed MMA but never bet on it. This is actually my first bet. Ive noticed the Shad line is going up up and away....is that a sign of concern?

**Vaughany** · 01-28-12, 01:00 PM

Originally posted by Sano

Yeah I really liked the "Christmas special" ending also. Was surprised with Gervais' acting. Touching

Haha, I'm from Denmark, the 'cheers mate' just seemed natural. Must be all the UK based comedies I have been wathcing lately

Btw. The place I use for betting is really crappy. I am about to switch to another one. There I can only choose winner of the fights.

My picks this time have been.

Moderate on Sonnen
Moderate on Rashad
Small on Maia (Because of the odds)
Small on Roop (Again, favourable odds)

Otherwise not alot of value on this card imo. I have a few singles for some strong underdogs, but it's just small amounts.

Ah right cool! I just wondered because I thought that some of the jokes/gags in Extras and Life's too Short might only appeal to English viewers because some of the comedy characters are Z-list "celebrities" in England who had 5 minutes of fame after starring in soaps or gameshows! Like Keith Chegwin who is in both Extras and Life's Too Short along with Les Dennis - both of whom are former presenters and their careers just went down hill after their shows finished and they went through divorces etc..! Amazing how they go on these programmes and just take the piss out of themselves! This was one of my favourite scenes with Keith Chegwin!... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=klXUOM4wtT8

Also this had me ROFL!... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lNz2S...eature=related

**The Fobfather** · 01-28-12, 01:01 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Maia SOTN on paddy and skybet (have ridiculously low bet limits on paddy tho). For some reason skybet dont put limits on their FOTN, SOTN and KOTN. Just got Bisping at +3300 SOTN as well arbed with Not Bisping SOTN at -1500!

. Sad my books are so far off. Would have jumped on those lines.

**Vaughany** · 01-28-12, 01:05 PM

Originally posted by mikea33

Hey, Vaughany, always followed MMA but never bet on it. This is actually my first bet. Ive noticed the Shad line is going up up and away....is that a sign of concern?

Depends who you've bet on! If u bet on Rashad then his line going up (i.e from -150 to current -200) is a positive as it means you're not the only one backing him! The public aren't always right of course but at least you know that other people see value in Rashad. If you're backing Davis then again depends how much weight u give to public opinion and the line movement. But Rashad was always going to be the one getting the most action on fight day which was why I bet him early at -145 and followed up with more at -162.5. I expected Davis to end up between +175 and +200 which looks like it's going to.

**gabe** · 01-28-12, 01:30 PM

I'll be in Denmark this year or next doing comedy

**Vaughany** · 01-28-12, 01:35 PM

Cool 30 minute interview with "CM Punk" talking about MMA, WWE, Sonnen etc.. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1h02xrGvg0

**gabe** · 01-28-12, 01:42 PM

LOL @ sitting down for 30 mins and watching a CM Punk interview

**Vaughany** · 01-28-12, 01:58 PM

Originally posted by gabe

LOL @ sitting down for 30 mins and watching a CM Punk interview

ha u might learn something Gabe. And try it standing up instead

**Vaughany** · 01-28-12, 02:06 PM

Weigh-in day with Rashad... http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=qL1-dazdYZ4

Very easy cut for Michael Johnson by looks of it

**Chong Wizard** · 01-28-12, 02:40 PM

Hey Vaughany can you do a re-cap of all your plays on this event... minus the arbs... I know the majority of your plays are arbs... but interested to see who your on...

**Vaughany** · 01-28-12, 02:47 PM

Originally posted by Chong Wizard

Hey Vaughany can you do a re-cap of all your plays on this event... minus the arbs... I know the majority of your plays are arbs... but interested to see who your on...

Big plays on Rashad straight up at -145 and -162.5. Wouldn't take him at worst than -175 tho.

Moderate play on Sonnen by decision at -117 and -120. Again wouldnt play at worse than -125.

Moderate play on Weidman/Maia going the distance and Weidman by decision

**mikea33** · 01-28-12, 02:48 PM

I just know in NHL, NBA, NCAAB, NHL, etc etc.....its scary to be on publics side, however the way the line is moving that shows me that the books think shad should win

**Vaughany** · 01-28-12, 03:40 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Adding:

Parlay: 6.362 units on Juventus/Udinese: Either team to Not Score 4 or more goals (-927), Maia/Weidman to Start Round 2 (-488), Sonnen/Bisping to Start Round 2 (-675), & Evans/Davis to Start Round 2 (-403) to win 5.809 units;

Parlay: 0.636 units on Juventus (-179), Maia/Weidman to Start Round 2 (-488), & Napoli/Genoa Over 2.5 Goals (-111) to win 1.635 units.

Juve 1-0 up at half-time. Looking good so far.

**Vaughany** · 01-28-12, 03:57 PM

Summary of UFC on FOX 2 plays:

25 units on Evans at -145 to win 17.241 units;

33.3 units on Evans at -162.5 to win 20.492 units;

0.062 units on Evans SOTN at +2500 to win 1.55 units;

Parlay: 0.654 units Barboza (-290), Evans (-150), & Benson Henderson (+105) to win 2.351 units;

Parlay: 3.241 units on Saffiedine/Stinson to Go Over 1.5 Rounds (-170), & Evans (-140) to win 5.583 units;

Parlay: 0.324 units on Woodley/Mein Over 2.5 Rounds, Evans (-140), Condit (+145), & Benson Henderson (+105) to win 4.107 units;

6.4 units on Evans by TKO/KO at +251 to win 16.065 units;

11.589 units on Not Evans Inside the Distance at -181 to win 6.403 units;

8.823 units on Sonnen by Decision at -117.65 to win 7.5 units;

3.046 units on Sonnen by Decision at -120 to win 2.538 units;

5.048 units on Sonnen/Bisping to Go the Distance at -200 to win 2.524 units;

Parlay: 1.62 units on Sonnen (-333.33), Nick Diaz (-150), & Ben Henderson (+110) to win 5.751 units;

Parlay: 6.25 units on Sonnen (-350), & Ellenberger (-250) to win 5 units;

3.333 units on Maia at +150 to win 4.999 units;

2 units on Weidman by Decision at +175 to win 3.5 units;

1.064 units on Weidman by TKO/KO or by Decision at +120 to win 1.277 units;

0.73 units on Weidman by Decision at +175 to win 1.278 units;

5.048 units on Weidman/Maia to Go the Distance at -200 to win 2.524 units;

Parlay: 6.354 units on Dunham/Lentz Starts Round 3 (-180), Sonnen/Bisping Starts Round 2 (-832), & Evans/Davis Starts Round 2 (-445) to win 7.206 units;

Parlay: 6.357 units on Oliveira/Wisely Starts Round 2 (-135) & Sonnen/Bisping Starts Round 2 (-665) to win 6.372 units;

Parlay: 6.362 units on Juventus/Udinese: Either team to Not Score 4 or more goals (-927), Maia/Weidman to Start Round 2 (-488), Sonnen/Bisping to Start Round 2 (-675), & Evans/Davis to Start Round 2 (-403) to win 5.809 units;

Parlay: 0.636 units on Juventus (-179), Maia/Weidman to Start Round 2 (-488), & Napoli/Genoa Over 2.5 Goals (-111) to win 1.635 units.

5 units on Phil Davis SOTN at +1000 to win 50 units;

0.125 units on Phil Davis SOTN at +1200 to win 1.5 units;

hedged with:

35 units on Not Phil Davis by Submission at -670 to win 5.224 units;

If Mr Wonderful wins by Submission he will get SOTN seeing as it's main event, Rashad has never been submitted, and he's the underdog.

Parlay: 10 units on Dunham (-300) & Evans by TKO/KO (+210) to win 31.333 units;

2.4 units on Lentz by Decision at +424 to win 10.176 units;

2.038 units on Dunham/Lentz to Go the Distance at -162.5 to win 1.254 units;

If Dunham wins then I will probably arb out with "Not Evans by TKO/KO" for risk free profit.

0.041 units on Beltran SOTN at +3500 to win 1.435 units;

0.1 units on Beltran SOTN at +3300 to win 3.3 units;

0.5 units on Roller by Submission at +200 to win 1 unit;

1.872 units on Cammozi/Jacoby to Go the Distance at -150 to win 1.248 units

0.686 units on Camozzi by Decision at +187.5 to win 1.286 units.

**Vaughany** · 01-28-12, 05:44 PM

Quite a few arbs on the go. Will make 3.32 units profit if Einemo wins or 0.325 units if Russow wins (plus another 0.4 units if Russow wins by TKO/KO). Arbed out of my 70 units on Sonnen at -350 with Bisping at +385 so will make 7 units if Bisping wins or overall stake back if Sonnen wins. Also got Not Maia Submission of the Night at -420, and Maia SOTN at +800 and +900 so will make a risk free 21.8 units profit if Maia gets SOTN, or 0.316 units if not. Similar with Bisping SOTN at +3300, and Not Bisping SOTN at -1500...30 units if he does get SOTN or 1 unit if not.
Should of waited longer but also got Swanson at -105 and Roop at +120...will net me 2.436 units if Roop wins, 0.351 if Swanson is victorious.

**more_betterness** · 01-28-12, 05:58 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Quite a few arbs on the go. Will make 3.32 units profit if Einemo wins or 0.325 units if Russow wins (plus another 0.4 units if Russow wins by TKO/KO). Arbed out of my 70 units on Sonnen at -350 with Bisping at +385 so will make 7 units if Bisping wins or overall stake back if Sonnen wins. Also got Not Maia Submission of the Night at -420, and Maia SOTN at +800 and +900 so will make a risk free 21.8 units profit if Maia gets SOTN, or 0.316 units if not. Similar with Bisping SOTN at +3300, and Not Bisping SOTN at -1500...30 units if he does get SOTN or 1 unit if not. Should of waited longer but also got Swanson at -105 and Roop at +120...will net me 2.436 units if Roop wins, 0.351 if Swanson is victorious.

You sir are ridiculous

**zoo youk** · 01-28-12, 06:11 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Quite a few arbs on the go. Will make 3.32 units profit if Einemo wins or 0.325 units if Russow wins (plus another 0.4 units if Russow wins by TKO/KO). Arbed out of my 70 units on Sonnen at -350 with Bisping at +385 so will make 7 units if Bisping wins or overall stake back if Sonnen wins. Also got Not Maia Submission of the Night at -420, and Maia SOTN at +800 and +900 so will make a risk free 21.8 units profit if Maia gets SOTN, or 0.316 units if not. Similar with Bisping SOTN at +3300, and Not Bisping SOTN at -1500...30 units if he does get SOTN or 1 unit if not.
Should of waited longer but also got Swanson at -105 and Roop at +120...will net me 2.436 units if Roop wins, 0.351 if Swanson is victorious.

Surprised books let ya do this. Ever been cut off for it?

**Vaughany** · 01-28-12, 06:13 PM

Originally posted by zoo youk

Surprised books let ya do this. Ever been cut off for it?

I dont do it on the same books so they dont necessarily know. For instance im not playing Not Bisping SOTN on Sportbet then playing Bisping by SOTN on Sportbet as well! Tht way u would get cut off.

**Vaughany** · 01-28-12, 06:30 PM

Adding:

Parlay: 6.362 units on Maia/Weidman to Start Round 2 (-495), Sonnen/Bisping to Start Round 2 (-488), & Condit (+155) to win 17.135 units.

**Vaughany** · 01-28-12, 09:20 PM

Adding:

Parlay: 6.362 units on Evans/Davis to Start Round 2 (-371), & Condit (+155) to win 14.234 units.

Need an Evans TKO/KO after Round 1 big time!

**Beelzebubzy** · 01-28-12, 09:24 PM

V, Do you bet Bellator?

**Vaughany** · 01-28-12, 09:25 PM

Sometimes. Usually only dogs tho

**Beelzebubzy** · 01-28-12, 09:30 PM

I grabbed Curran at opener, -255. I know you dont play odds for straight up worse than -200. but what are you thoughts on this fight.

I like Curran, he was able to stand and trade with Eddie but here Warren is going to want to wrestle. But, I think this fight plays out very similar to Soto/Warren Round 1. Plus, I think Warrens chin is gone at this point.

**Vaughany** · 01-28-12, 09:37 PM

yeah Curran should take it but I'd always be concerned betting on a big favourite against an elite wrestler! He could grind it out and get a dodgy decision or something