Lots of action this week / weekend boys

**Educ8d Degener8** · 07-02-10, 04:56 PM

added 1.00u on Lesnar (-127)... just getting a unit in at that price in case the size differential of the weigh-ins shifts it back down... can't wait for that weigh-in...

Originally posted by Chairib

Brown vs Lytle is going to be interesting

I ain't touching that fight at this point. I like Brown -- he's a gritty dude, but don't think I'll get enough time to thoroughly call this one.

It is the heavy fav for FOTN, but I think there a few matches on this card that could end up FOTN worthy... should be some good bouts.

BOL

**Educ8d Degener8** · 07-03-10, 02:09 PM

Pending any last minute changes / additions... here's my UFC 116 card... I contemplated buying back on my Sotiropoulos play, but chose not to, so hope that doesn't bite me in the ass... Overall, I see some value in plays on this card, and like some doggies.

Risk / To Win / Wager -- logic

1.00u / 0.59u / Daniel Roberts -- see thoughts in thread dedicated to this ("Petz" in title of thread)

1.00u / 0.79u / Brock Lesnar -- I'm consistent with anyone who is picking Lesnar here as far as reasoning (wrestling control). Lesnar better control the pace and avoid getting caught in the clinch; aside from obviously -- keeping his hands up. One of 2 things is gonna happen here: Lesnar is gonna demonstrate just how much of a beast he is by physically manhandling Carwin... or Carwin is gonna put him to sleep.

1.00u / 0.51u / Sotiropoulos -- ignoring the weight cut issues, I like his boxing and subs here; and if Pellegrino gets him on his back, George has a nice rubber guard to minimize damage. Pellegrino is a live dog, I do not deny that. He's a solid fighter and poses a threat. Could grind out a decision, especially given the NA scoring system for takedowns.

1.00u / 0.36u / Duffee vs Russow does not go to decision + Lesnar vs Carwin does not go to decision -- don't need to explain this.

0.25u / 0.48u / Bonnar -- If he keeps to his plan, I see a W here. Might go to decision though, so keeping this bet minimal given the bad judging lately; Krystof's style is a bit flashier so may fool the dumb judges, whereas Bonnar's striking is not as flashy, but more technical and effective, imho. If Bonnar abandons his tactics and gets caught in a brawl... see next play...

0.25u / 1.25u / Bonnar vs Sozynski FOTN -- quite a few potential FOTNs on this card, but I like the value here. Given his relationship with Dana, if Bonnar comes out on the wrong end of a decision, or straight up gets his ass whooped in a nice brawl, I could see this bout getting FOTN.

0.25u / 5.41u / Bonnar + Leben by decision -- Just a gut feel here. Leben is one tough dude to put away, so if he doesn't manage to knock Akiyama's head into next week, there's a good chance it could go to the cards; and Leben's style could sway the judges.

0.25u / 5.43u / Akiyama + Bonnar + Tuchscherer + Roberts -- If motivated, Akiyama should take Leben though

+ Damn, I'm really on Bonnar tonite + If he doesn't get KO'd, Tuch can grind out a boring LnP W + Roberts ftw.

0.13u / 1.24u / Lesnar wins via submission -- arm triangle from mount. I'm just saying. Although after I placed this bet, I became aware of Carwin's supposed BJJ prowess as learned under Amal Easton... Maybe it'll be a Carwin sub victory instead... ;p

Some value for dog lovers I would say (Leben, Bonnar, Tuchscherer and Pellegrino, and even Matt Brown)

Let's hope we get good ref'ing and judging tonite boys!

BOL to all.

**Educ8d Degener8** · 07-04-10, 02:34 PM

Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8

0.13u / 1.24u / Lesnar wins via submission -- arm triangle from mount. I'm just saying. Although after I placed this bet, I became aware of Carwin's supposed BJJ prowess as learned under Amal Easton... Maybe it'll be a Carwin sub victory instead... ;p

UFC 116 nets +4.71u -- my favorite bet above...

Real solid night. Hit all my solo plays, and damn if Leben didn't sink that sub in, I might've pulled off a nice parlay...

**Vaughany** · 07-04-10, 02:38 PM

Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8

UFC 116 nets +4.35u -- my favorite bet above...

Real solid night. Hit all my solo plays, and damn if Leben didn't sink that sub in, I might've pulled off a nice parlay...

Ha awesome stuff with the Lesnar submission. I almost put a unit on Lesnar to win by submission in round 2 just before the event started 22/1 but bottled it as I thought it would never happen!

**Educ8d Degener8** · 07-23-10, 08:43 PM

SF Challengers + UFC

0.50u Abongo -- depends which Mike Kyle shows up, but I'm fading him simply based on his showing vs Tony Lopez ;p

0.50u Del Rosario / Spider Silva / Jon Jones [Squarepants Parlay]

**Chairib** · 07-24-10, 08:21 PM

Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8

SF Challengers + UFC

0.50u Abongo -- depends which Mike Kyle shows up, but I'm fading him simply based on his showing vs Tony Lopez ;p

0.50u Del Rosario / Spider Silva / Jon Jones [Squarepants Parlay]

Squarepants Parlay?

**Educ8d Degener8** · 07-26-10, 06:16 PM

Originally posted by Chairib

Squarepants Parlay?

Just a play on words... 'cos the 3 picks in that parlay are pretty square-ish

So I put my square pants on when I placed that bet.

And unfortunately for me, a decent Mike Kyle showed up on Friday...

**Educ8d Degener8** · 08-06-10, 11:29 AM

UFC 117 for me is looking like this so far...

1.00u Jon Fitch

0.25u 4 Team Parlay: Silva inside distance / Fitch by decision / Not Guida inside distance / Hallman

0.50u Squarpants Parlay: Del Rosario / Jon Jones / Spider Silva

And considering 2 straddles...

Dos Anjos + Guida by decision
Sonnen + Silva inside the distance

**Educ8d Degener8** · 08-07-10, 07:20 PM

Additional plays

1.00u Silva inside the distance
0.25u Guida / Dos Santos / Sonnen

**Educ8d Degener8** · 08-10-10, 03:03 PM

UFC 117 nets 1.38u profit...

Solid run on UFC PPVs since 113. Should just stick with UFC PPVs...

**jin2daj** · 08-10-10, 03:11 PM

lovin the lesnar by sub!

**Chairib** · 08-11-10, 01:54 PM

Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8

Just a play on words... 'cos the 3 picks in that parlay are pretty square-ish

So I put my square pants on when I placed that bet.

And unfortunately for me, a decent Mike Kyle showed up on Friday...

I thought squarepants but couldn't for the life of me make the connection to square in wagering talk.

With parlays, do you have a limit of fights you include in a single bet or is it dependent on the odds of each fight?

Is four the max?

**Educ8d Degener8** · 08-27-10, 05:53 PM

Bumping for UFC 118...

Wager / Risk / To Win

Mario Miranda / 1.50u / 2.62u (1.00u @ +165, 0.50u @ +190)
Gray Maynard / 0.50u / 0.70u (I want to root for Kenny though)
Penn inside distance / 1.00u / 1.03u

Osipczak, Edgar by dec / 0.50u / 1.61u ('cos I'm torn on the BJ fight)
Pierce, Maia by sub, Couture inside distance / 0.50u / 1.58u
Salter, Maynard by dec, Miranda by dec / 0.25u / 11.64u (tailing KCJMAC - handsome payout potential)

That's likely it unless Pierce by decision becomes available, or I make last minute impulse plays...

War Miranda!

GL to everyone.

**illmatick** · 08-27-10, 06:47 PM

Looks like we're the only two here who like Gray, seems to me like people are making a little too much out of Kenny's striking edge. it's lot closer than people think imo

war Miranda's overbite!!

**Vaughany** · 08-28-10, 03:22 AM

Originally posted by illmatick

Looks like we're the only two here who like Gray, seems to me like people are making a little too much out of Kenny's striking edge. it's lot closer than people think imo

war Miranda's overbite!!

I'm liking Maynard as well! Just not sure enough to bet on him when Florian has home advantage...hence why I jus went for the fight to go to decision.

**illmatick** · 08-28-10, 04:11 AM

gl vaughany, I'm still trying to decide how I want to work that decision prop into a possible parlay.

not sure if I'm getting any sleep today. only 14 hours until the first fight

**Vaughany** · 08-28-10, 04:24 AM

Originally posted by illmatick

gl vaughany, I'm still trying to decide how I want to work that decision prop into a possible parlay.

not sure if I'm getting any sleep today. only 14 hours until the first fight

Cheers, GL to u to bro! Yee such an epic event has come at a bad time for me, I've got a 15000 word university thesis to be handed in on Tuesday and only half way through it so far! Means having no sleep today as UFC starts at 2am over here in England!

**Educ8d Degener8** · 08-28-10, 04:12 PM

Adding some small props:

Wager / Risk / To Win
Osipczak fastest ko or tko / 0.25u / 1.50u
Winner fastest ko or tko / 0.13u / 0.94u
Alves fastest ko or tko / 0.13u / 2.25u (longshot Nova Uniao fanboy play)
Winner v Lentz FOTN / 0.13u / 1.00u
Couture quick sub / 0.50u / 1.13u

After reviewing things, I don't foresee but maybe a few ko's on this card...
Most of the guys with KO potential I have cap'd on the losing end -- Marcus, Toney, Florian...
Miranda or Pierce could score a TKO, but I think they'll play safe for decisions.
And I strongly feel Couture will want to submit Toney to embarrass him.

GL Fellas

**Educ8d Degener8** · 08-31-10, 01:23 PM

Well, 118 is gonna sting for a bit... -4.19u loss... Worst loss since... the last time Penn and Edgar fought (and Maia too, hmmmm)

I was close with Couture quickest sub, but Lauzon got me. Shoulda just played Couture by sub as I figured he would sub Toney to punk him and leave no excuses. Over-thought that one, and in hindsight, I probably should've focused more on that one.

And don't get me started on Miranda's gameplan, or the fact that Maia couldn't even sub Miranda to at least score me my hedge parlay...

Just a bad night.

Glad to see some of you on the plus side of things though.

**Educ8d Degener8** · 09-09-10, 01:51 PM

Thursday V-dog Parlay:
Vanier (mma) / Vikings (NFL)
risk 0.25u to win 1.67u

**snake11eyes** · 09-09-10, 03:29 PM

Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8

Thursday V-dog Parlay:
Vanier (mma) / Vikings (NFL)
risk 0.25u to win 1.67u

Nooo. Don't do it E. The Vikings will not win opening day in the superdome. Now just to be fair I'm probably a little bias. OK a lot, but you can't allow that to influence your decison. In reality it will be to crazy down there for the Vikings to pull the upset.

**Educ8d Degener8** · 09-09-10, 04:06 PM

Originally posted by snake11eyes

Nooo. Don't do it E. The Vikings will not win opening day in the superdome. Now just to be fair I'm probably a little bias. OK a lot, but you can't allow that to influence your decison. In reality it will be to crazy down there for the Vikings to pull the upset.

Tiny tiny play, no worries. I've seen a few sharps on the Vikes.

If it makes you feel better, I am hoping for big games from Pierre and Colston

**snake11eyes** · 09-10-10, 08:41 AM

Yea I should have looked how much you risked. I just knew opening day would be to much for Favre. It actually should have been a lot worse. They dropped two easy td and Hartley missed two fg. Not a very exciting game to kickoff the season, but everyone probably had the over.

**Educ8d Degener8** · 09-10-10, 10:25 AM

Originally posted by snake11eyes

Yea I should have looked how much you risked. I just knew opening day would be to much for Favre. It actually should have been a lot worse. They dropped two easy td and Hartley missed two fg. Not a very exciting game to kickoff the season, but everyone probably had the over.

Fortunately, I ended up + yesterday thanks to a small play on Auburn.

**Educ8d Degener8** · 09-11-10, 08:43 PM

Risking 0.50u to win 1.66u
Sokoudjou
Colorado St +24
SF 49ers -2.5 (bout it down from -3)

Risking 0.25u to win 0.26u
Jardine
Tennessee Titans ML

**Educ8d Degener8** · 09-11-10, 10:52 PM

Adding 1/8u to win 1/2u:
Sokoudjou
Jardine
49ers
Titans

(little chase, as Col St is getting murda'd)

**Educ8d Degener8** · 09-11-10, 11:14 PM

0.25u to win 0.44u
USC -9.5 2nd half
Jardine

F*ck it. Bout to head out to a bar where i get free drinks...

**koscheckbaby** · 09-11-10, 11:18 PM

Horrible luck man. Sokoudjou should have enough talent to beat guys like Alexander. But the guy has no heart or gas tank OR ground game. How does Houston Alexander sweep you?

**Educ8d Degener8** · 09-11-10, 11:21 PM

Originally posted by koscheckbaby

Horrible luck man. Sokoudjou should have enough talent to beat guys like Alexander. But the guy has no heart or gas tank OR ground game. How does Houston Alexander sweep you?

No sh*t. Amazing.

That's why I don't bet much on the smaller shows. Weird stuff happens.

Sokou is the frickin Tin Man. No heart.

**Educ8d Degener8** · 09-15-10, 03:18 PM

0.50u Marquardt
0.50u Branch
0.13u Marquardt, Oliveira, Tibau, Pearson, Attonito

As big as a fan of Palhares as I am, I just see Nate taking the fight. Conflicted in that I wanna root for the Tree Stump...

BOL all

**Educ8d Degener8** · 09-15-10, 11:02 PM

I'll take a positive night regardless the size...

0.50u Marquardt WIN 0.21u
0.50u Branch WIN 0.70u
0.13u Marquardt, Oliveira, Tibau, Pearson, Attonito LOSS 0.13u

nets 0.78u

**Educ8d Degener8** · 09-25-10, 04:28 PM

On vacation, so limited capping time, nonetheless, making a couple of plays...

Risking
1.00u Mir (-215)
0.50u Grant (-210)
0.50u Guillard (-107)

Kinda chalky, but not enamored with any of the doggies on the card...

GL all.

**Educ8d Degener8** · 09-26-10, 04:47 PM

Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8

On vacation, so limited capping time, nonetheless, making a couple of plays...

Risking
1.00u Mir (-215) WIN
0.50u Grant (-210) WIN
0.50u Guillard (-107) WIN

Kinda chalky, but not enamored with any of the doggies on the card...

GL all.

3-0, +1.18u for UFC 119...

**Educ8d Degener8** · 09-30-10, 05:32 PM

WEC 51 plays

Risk / To Win / Wager

0.50u / 0.35u / Varner
0.25u / 0.56u / Roop
0.25u / 0.33u / Ratcliff
0.50u / 0.45u / Hominick, Mike Thomas Brown

Missed out on the tasty early lines, unfortunately. Would've gone big on Hominick, and put more on Roop.

GL

**Eccocide** · 09-30-10, 05:36 PM

GL tonight ED.