He is -380 on 5dimes. Don't like laying that kinda juice so I had to go with a parlay.
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Yee Ive got him at -400 now. Put him in a parlay with Kongo and Jim Miller...30 to win 25. Also got 10 on Schaub and 10 on Marshall.Comment -
Dream 13:
Minowa (+200) 1 unit to win 2 units
Ryo Chonan (+130) 1 unit to win 1.3 units
Maeda (-200) 2 units to win 1 unitComment -
Write-ups for UFC on Versus 1.
UFC on Versus 1:
Alessio Sakara (+120) 2 units to win 2.4 units
This is a tough matchup to predict since you have 2 standup fighters that both have knockout power and are both more than willing to trade. I’m going with Sakara in this one as I believe he is the more technical striker with the better ground game if he has to use it. His cardio has looked better since moving down to 185 and his game looks much tighter than when he entered the UFC. As for Irvin, I think his only real advantage in this fight is his power. Obviously if he lands a clean shot on Sakara the fight could be over, but I think this is a great spot to fade Irvin. He hasn’t fought in almost 2 years since getting embarrassed by Anderson Silva. He’s had well documented issues with painkillers over the last couple years and you just don’t know where his head is going to be in this fight. I think his cardio is definitely going to suffer from the layoff and the longer this fight goes, the better for Sakara. Ring rust will be a factor.
Gabriel Gonzaga (+260) 0.5 units to win 1.3 units
I went with a small play here on Gonzaga as I cant pass up a line with this value. Does JDS deserve to be a favourite? Sure. But Gonzaga is by far the most well-rounded fighter he has fought. He has beaten one-dimensional strikers in CroCop and Yvel, and beat down an inexperienced bean pole in Struve. If Gonzaga decides to stand with JDS then it will prolly be a short night for him. IMO JDS has the more crisp striking and a big speed advantage. However, I don’t think Gonzaga will make this mistake. He has solid takedowns and excellent top control. No one has tested JDS on the ground yet and Gonzaga would be a smart man to test those waters. I have no doubt JDS is competent on the ground since he trains with the Noguiera’s, but it’s a whole different story with a big, skilled man like Gonzaga on top of you. If Gabriel can get this to the ground, I think he can finish this fight via submission or ride out a decision.
Kongo/Pierce/Miller (UFC 111) 3-fight parlay (-101) 3.03 units to win 3 units
Not a whole lot to explain here. This is a heavy favourite parlay. If these guys do what they are supposed to this shouldn’t be that difficult to cash. Kongo shouldn’t have any issue with Buentello. He will have a definitive reach advantage and only has to worry about Buentello’s hands. He can Kickbox or take this to the ground and pound him out. Either way is fine with me. Jim Miller is a beast and should have any problem getting the victory over Bocek. As long as he doesn’t get sloppy on the ground and get caught in a submission (highly unlikely) I don’t see where he can lose this fight. I was extremely impressed with Pierce in his fight against Fitch. He had no quit in that fight and prolly coulda got the finish if given a couple more minutes. If he can avoid Paulino’s wild bombs he should be able to get this fight to the ground and get the job done.Comment -
good stuff ecco, only thing about Sakara that i don't like is that so far in the ufc when he goes up against a bigger puncher he gets put to sleep. Drew Mcfredries, Houston Alexander and Chris Leben,all three guys were at a technical disadvantage but Sakara was just a little too slow and a little too easy to close the distance on. I think you can make the case that Irvin is a faster and more precise striker than all three of those guys, with that said i have been considering a buy back on Sakara just because there are too many questions going into this fight about Irvin's cardio and mental state as you alluded to in your breakdown, gl my friendLast edited by illmatick; 03-19-10, 07:22 PM.Comment -
Yup I don't disagree with that analysis at all. Like I said, Irvin's power can be a big factor. His power is right up there with McFredries, prolly moreso than Leben. Since Sakara moved to ATT I think his gameplanning has been a lot better and I think they will have him prepared to take advantage of Irvin's time off. Time will tell!Comment -
Could never lay that price on Schaub. He should win but he hasnt proven anything to have that price tag yet.
1 more play for UFC on Versus 1:
Eric Schafer (+135) 1 unit to win 1.35 units
As I have alluded to in other threads I have been leaning this way for quite a bit but finally decided to pull the trigger. From the limited video I've seen of Brilz he is a one-dimensional top control wrestler. He isnt a substantial threat on the feet and while Schafer definitely isnt known for his standup, I think it is adequate enough to have the advantage in this fight. He was particularly impressive IMO in his fight against Bader, while Brilz looked overwhelmed against Marshall. If (more like when) this fight goes to the ground, Brilz will have to defend against Schafer's slick jiu-jitsu the whole fight. Schafer has no problem being on the bottom and i see this one ending with a submission late in the second or early in the 3rd.
UFC on Versus 1 Recap
Alessio Sakara (+120) 2 units to win 2.4 units
Gabriel Gonzaga (+260) 0.5 units to win 1.3 units
Kongo/Pierce/Miller (UFC 111) 3-fight parlay (-101) 3.03 units to win 3 units
Eric Schafer (+135) 1 unit to win 1.35 units
Im not extremely confident in a lot of these plays, hence the reason for keeping the units small. Hopefully I can get a positive night.Comment -
UFC on Versus 1 Results:
+0.9 units
Kongo/Pierce/Miller (UFC 111) 3-fight parlay (-101) 3.03 units to win 3 units - PENDING
Prolly shoulda stayed away from the Schafer fight. Sounds like he had a solid chance to win but gassed out. Fight sounded like it didnt go as I expected with lots of action in the standup. If Miller wins next weekend it boosts it up to +3.9 units. Hopefully he comes through.
Don't have time for Dream 13 writeups. My Minowa bet has been mysteriously cancelled lol. Made it when the line opened at +200. The odds were taken down quickly after and now it has been voided...whatever.
Dream 13 Recap:
Ryo Chonan (+130) 1 unit to win 1.3 units
Maeda (-200) 2 units to win 1 unit
slightly worried about the Chonan fight. The line moved all the way down to +EV, now it has got steamed back to +130. Gunna ride it out - hoping there isnt something that i dont know.Comment -
Prolly shouldn't but I'm going to add another unit on Ellenberger at +148. Line move is freaking me out a bit but he should be able to get this to the ground whenever he wants. UFC 111 plays so far as posted.
UFC 111:
Ricardo Almeida (-115) 5.75 units to win 5 units
Jake Ellenberger (+133) 2 units to win 2.66 units
Jake Ellenberger (+148) 1 unit to win 1.48 units
Kongo/Pierce/Miller 3-fight parlay (-101) 3.03 units to win 3 units
Debating plays on the 2 main events. Nothing else on the undercard is catching my eye as of now. Will do some writeups sometime this week.Comment -
on both of those plays myself, don't see any reason to think almeida won't be able to take brown down early and often
nice call on sakara, unreal how drained and lethargic Irvin looked in that fightComment -
My last post should say debating plays on the 2 co-main events. Wont have anything on GSP/Hardy.
Glad to see you on them as well. I think the Almeida line is still off even at -155, although I'm obviously happy to get it at the opening -115. Yeah, I never understood why Irvin wanted to go to 185 when he was already lean and cut at 205.Comment -
Fitch and Carwin are the only ones tht make sense surely simply cos both fights are a toss up...virtually 50/50 but they each have the better odds.Comment -
I can't trust Frank Mir against anyone with punching power. He wilts badly once he starts getting hit. Carwin on the other hand has barely been tested. We dont know what his cardio is like or what his sub defense is like. A lot of unknowns in this one which is what is keeping me away.
As for Fitch/Alves, I don't think its quite as even or difficult to break down (Plus it seems a lot of ppl can't fathom Fitch being an underdog which makes me feel better about leaning Alves). Fitch hasn't done anything to impress me recently and Alves has shown he can keep it standing with great wrestlers other than GSP. If he wasn't coming off an injury and I could get a line that hasn't plummeted like this one has, I would be on him for sure. With him sitting at -160 now its not so appetizing.Comment -
best of luck sir!!. miller is a solid pick to round that parlay out.Comment -
Well there goes the Ellenberger bets. Write-ups for what I've put in for this card so far.
UFC 111
Ricardo Almeida (-115) 5.75 units to win 5 units
I was extremely surprised to see the line open at -115 and I had to jump all over it. Almeida is finally making the move to welterweight after he started talking about it over a year ago. I really think this is the right division for him. At Middleweight, his height and size were average at best. Now he will be one of the bigger guys in the division. Take a look at this fight for example – Almeida is about 5’11 while Matt Brown comes in around 5’7. Combine that with his grappling ability and I think he will be a force in this division. Obviously, the major concern I have for this fight is it’s the first time he will be cutting down, but from what I have read it seems to be going well. If he doesn’t turn out looking like skeletor ala James Irvin, and his gas tank isn’t horribly affected, I think this is a pretty tailormade fight for him. Matt Brown has put together a nice little streak winning his last 3 fights in the UFC. Only problem with that is that they came against Pete Sell, Ryan Thomas and James Wilks, 3 guys with marginal grappling and ground game compared to Almeida. When Brown has had to fight decent grapplers he has noticeably struggled – Kim was draped around him like a monkey until he gassed and Lytle was able to guillotine him quite easily. Of Brown’s 7 losses, 5 are by submission. Now he fights a guy that is one of the most decorated jiu-jitsu fighters in the UFC. If at any point Almeida is able to get his back like Kim was able to do multiple times in his fight, this one will be over quick. Combine the size and grappling advantage and this is up there with my biggest plays in while.
Camoes/Pellegrino goes the distance (+200) 1.5 units to win 3 units
This one stood out to me as a looked through the props today. Both guys strength is on the ground. Look at how they’ve both won most of their fights and its by submission. Although this is the case, neither guy is so spectacular at it that they would have an advantage over each other in the fight. So IMO this fight goes one of 2 ways – the first being that both guys respect each other’s ground game and their skills neutralize each other’s so they decide to stand. If this is the case, I don’t think either guy has to power or stand up ability to finish each other off. The second way is that it turns into a grappling match with the superior wrestler (Pellegrino in my opinion) doing some lay-n-pray. Either way, I see this fight going the distance with a close decision going one way or the other.
Kongo/Pierce/Miller 3-fight parlay (-101) 3.03 units to win 3 units
The first 2 legs of this parlay are done so all I am left with is Miller. As I stated earlier in this thread, Miller is the superior grappler and has the better standup in this fight. Bocek has excellent Jiu-Jitsu but Miller has great top control and submission defense (as well as submissions) which make him very difficult to finish. I think he dictates the pace and decides where this fight goes. As long as he doesn’t get sloppy and leave an arm in, he should cruise to a win here.
That’s all I have for now. Still debating a play on the Carwin/Mir fight. Also looking a little deeper at Soto/Riddle and Drwa/Palhares, but not sure if I’ll be making a play on either of them.
UFC 111 Recap:
Ricardo Almeida (-115) 5.75 units to win 5 units
Kongo/Pierce/Miller 3-fight parlay (-101) 3.03 units to win 3 units
Camoes/Pellegrino goes the distance (+200) 1.5 units to win 3 unitsComment -
Agree totally with Pellegrino and Camoes...ive jus got money on Pellegrino to win but the fight going the distance at +200 is solid. Got the same parlay as well with Kongo, Pierce and Miller...no way Miller is losing this. Pretty sure Matt Brown is at least 5ft 11...probly 6ft...definately not 5"7 as uve stated tho...http://uk.ufc.com/MattBrown
My point is Brown has come on leaps and bounds since tht split loss to Dong Kim and really cant bet against him after losing last time wen I bet on Wilks!Comment -
Yea Matt Brown is definitely not 5'7, wiki says he's 6'0. And as much as you guys like Almedia, Brown just seems like one of the world beater type guys thats going to put up way too much of a fight. Really wish my 5dimes account wasn't messed up and could've followed your parlayComment -
Was a typo lol. Was supposed to be 5'9 but looks like i may still be off judging by what you guys are saying. Either way, Almeida is still big for this weightclass lol.Comment -
One more add....
Shane Carwin by KO/TKO (+242) 1.25 units to win 3.025 units
Shane Carwin by 5 round decision (+1208) 0.2 units to win 2.416 units
I will start off by saying this play is going against my better judgement. Mir looked solid at the weigh-ins, Carwin looked soft. Carwin has never been past the first round or tested on the ground so no idea what his cardio or sub defense is like. And he doesn't train MMA full time. Lots of intangables and invariables. So this bet is more of a gut feel. I honestly think Mir believes his standup is top of the food chain in the HW division. Now that he has finished Big Nog (who was basically on his deathbed) and Kongo (who got caught looking to defend the takedown), he's got a lot of confidence to keep things standing. Obviously, if this goes to the ground and Mir gets on top, Carwin will be in a world of hurt. However, Mir has shown that he doesnt like to get hit, and will crumble once his hair gets messed up. If Carwin touches his chin I think its lights out for Mir. So I'm going to take a stab on more of a gut feel than any significant handicapping. Now let me explain the reason for the betting here. First, Carwin is paying +130 to win the fight. I figure his only real way to win this fight is by KO or TKO. Therefore I'll take the increased odds and play it at +242. Next, by some miracle and this fight actually goes 5 rounds and Carwin pulls off the win, he's paying a ridiculous +1208. I'm putting a very small 0.2 units on that to cover the loss on the win by TKO/KO while still coming out with a 1.2 unit profit. Basically, I'm pretty much ignoring him winning by submission and increasing my odds and payout.
UFC 111 Recap:
Ricardo Almeida (-115) 5.75 units to win 5 units
Kongo/Pierce/Miller 3-fight parlay (-101) 3.03 units to win 3 units
Camoes/Pellegrino goes the distance (+200) 1.5 units to win 3 units
Shane Carwin by KO/TKO (+242) 1.25 units to win 3.025 units
Shane Carwin by 5 round decision (+1208) 0.2 units to win 2.416 units
That should be all for me. GL to everyone tomorrow!Comment -
Well thought out analyses, and an interesting hedge with that Carwin prop... GLComment -
like the carwin props, some value there. goodluck sir enjoying your postsComment -
GL tonight guys.
Ya Terp, i was surprised to see that line, especially after the last few fights for each fighter. I never expected to find it over +125, so to get it at +200 was a gift.Comment -
You got an awesome line on Almeida, I got it at -145. I like Camoes but that fight goes the distance prop looks nice.Comment -
Ya i got the opening line at sportsbook when it opened. Still a lot of value at -145 imo. As long as Almeida doesnt gas fast, he should win this hands down. I was looking at Camoes but I figure it will be difficult for either guy to get a finish and the going the distance prop pays better than Camoes and either guy can win.
One last add...I'm gunna get myself in trouble with these.
GSP/Hardy Over 2.5 rounds (-102) 1.53 units to win 1.5 units
Have been debating this one since yesterday and finally decided to bite today. All 6 of GSP's fights since losing to Matt Serra have went over 2.5 rounds. 2 of those fights ended in the second round but were well after the midway point and very close to the bell. As for Hardy, 5 of his last 6 fights went over 2.5 rounds with the last 2 being decision victories. I don't see where Hardy can win this fight, but he is a tough kid and I don't see him giving up or getting TKOed early. I see the opening round being more of a feeler round, with GSP going to his wrestling late in the round and early and often into the second. As long as Hardy can avoid being submittedearly, I see this one creeping late into the 3rd or 4th round before GSP ends it. My biggest worry is that it ends early in the 3rd, but I'll take my chances.Comment -
gl tonight ecco, getting my round prop plays ready right nowComment -
Carwin by KO/TKO down to +157. Think 5dimes messed up on the opening line lol. I didnt understand how he could be +242 by KO/TKO and +145 inside the distance. Looks like the adjusted and parallelled them now.Comment -
UFC 111 Results:
4-1: +10.825 units
Massive night for me. Only loss was the pellegrino goes the distance. Hit my 2nd biggest play of the year on Almeida as well.Comment -
Recap of what I have already posted for UFN 21. Better lines for both dogs are available now. Wish I wouldn't have bet them so early. Will try to do writeups sometime between today and tomorrow. Don't think I will add too much if anything more - Nothing i love on this card and I don't want to force any bets after having a stellar UFC 111. And DAMN did Gomi look good at the weigh-ins. Haven't seen him that cut in years. Hope it translates into a good performance.
UFN 21:
Takanori Gomi (+250) 1.5 units to win 3.75 units
Jorge Rivera (+220) 1.5 units to win 3.3 units
Roy Nelson/Yushin Okami 2-fight Parlay (-165) 3.5 units to win 2.14 unitsComment -
No way is florian going to lose to gomi imo... and hes been training with gsp too... pshhhh but I do like el conquistador to ko quarry.Comment -
first fight ufc jitters for gomi?? and did he work on the sub defense the one big hole in his game?Comment
