The Best Lock on the UFC 107 Card?!?!

teaserpleaser · 12-08-09, 11:49 AM

BJ penn is not a lock vs Sanchez, I could go into detail but Cardio and pace of the fight are with sanchez. Going to be a hell of fight but sanchez is the more active fighter. BJ stands around throws a few jabs and fights in place he doesnt move much sanchez is a ball of energy. nightmare gets stronger as the fight moves forward and bj has a history of wilting over a 5 round fight i give the edge to sanchez. I can see sanchez getting a takedown and taking a few rounds. BJs a top bjj player im too lazy to look but i think its been a while since hes subbed somebody from his guard... his guard isnt that good that rubber guard he trys to play isnt going to work on sanchez. Sanchez's ground game is underrated hes very good ADCC vet and greg jacksons bb. I've followed sanchez since he beat the shit outta my ex teammate jorge santiago in the king of the cage 2002 i think i know his game well... Trust me he has "it" This is going to be a close fight i give the edge to sanchez once Bj gasses around round 3. Theres no way no how BJ can keep up with the nightmare pace for 5 rounds. BJ stops sanchez cuts, ko, or freak poke in the eye or something or sanchez takes a dec imo theres just no way BJ can fight at sanchez's pace for 25 min.

squallsquall · 12-08-09, 02:20 PM

Why do you have one parlay with Mir and one with Kongo, instead of just one with the other two matches only?

Boddhissatva · 12-08-09, 03:03 PM

Bj Penn is not a LOCK. I have him winning but I wouldn't be surprised if Sanchez was able to grind out a Decision.

Mir and Kongo...too many variables...no clear cut winner.

Two fights to look at, in terms of value is Kenny Florian vs. Clay Guida. Guida is +160 and can very well steal this fight.

On the Prelims, Alan Belcher vs Wilson Gouevia.
If Gouveia is the underdog I'm going to bet heavy on him...he's a tough son of a bit*ch who took the fight the Nate Marquart.

southmadejd · 12-08-09, 03:28 PM

Originally posted by squallsquall

Why do you have one parlay with Mir and one with Kongo, instead of just one with the other two matches only?

I was just trying to get better value. I put more on the penn, florian, mir parlay and then put enough to cover both bets on the other where I switch mir with kongo.

And I probably should not have used the word "lock". I just used that to show people the "Most likely to win". I think Penn constantly gets underestimated for some reason and has dominated almost every single opponent he has had at the 155lb. I think Sanchez will try to overwhelm him with his pace but somehow BJ will find a way to slow him down and make him look stupid. I definitely don't think Sanchez can win this fight.

stefan084 · 12-09-09, 09:07 AM

yeah BJs guard isn't that good--retard

illmatick · 12-09-09, 09:39 AM

you mma guys have so much built in anger

brooks85 · 12-09-09, 11:25 AM

watch this kangaroo clinch up a goose.

illmatick · 12-09-09, 11:49 AM

YES kartwheels are the shit

Boddhissatva · 12-09-09, 12:13 PM

Originally posted by stefan084

yeah BJs guard isn't that good--retard

Bj's guard is one of the best in MMA history.

Boddhissatva · 12-09-09, 12:19 PM

Diego Sanchez at +240 warrants a closer look...

It's unlikely...but very possible that the Nightmare pulls off the upset.
He certainly has the tools for it.

Sanchez has the cardio, aggression and ground game to hang in there with Bj penn...

but at 155...Bj penn has looked practically invincible.

The HOFF · 12-09-09, 12:47 PM

Originally posted by brooks85

watch this kangaroo clinch up a goose.

Thanks brooks. Totally fking random!

brooks85 · 12-09-09, 01:09 PM

ya, i thought that video was funny.

Diego definitely has a solid chance to upset bj. Look how kenny clinched with penn looking for a takedown, of course he never got it but he did control penn. There is no doubt a td would be near impossible but the clinch game wins rounds. Diego is stronger than kenny and he could hold penn against the cage for good chunks of a round. Hopefully, diego has been working on his clinch game.

Diego is extremely tough and has taken shots from much stronger opponents at WW and survived. Neither of these guys are going too ko each other. Diego has the power too and if he lands a kick and follows up with gnp, maybe. But, likewise, penn has taken serious strikes in his career but he rarely throws kicks.

On the other hand. I could see penn come out, strike with diego in the first round and just take him down the rest of the rounds. For a wrestler, diego has horrible TD% and TD defense. And, his head movement needs be vastly improved come saturday.

I see the fight going to a decision no matter what. And that is a good thing for diego, he has a favorable style of fighting for scorecards. But, i just cant place a real bet against penn at 155 and now he is focused on his training for the last year. He is going to be better shape than he was against kflo.

brooks85 · 12-09-09, 01:20 PM

here is bj yesterday. Diego also has started a new strength program. The weigh-ins shall be very interesting.

http://www.bjpenn.com/video/weight-check-164

here is diego

Page Not Found | BJPenn.com

http://www.bjpenn.com/video/ufc-107-diego-sanchez-vlog-1

check about 3:25 to see his status.

urge2kill · 12-09-09, 05:02 PM

rofl at the video

Pride>UFC · 12-09-09, 05:21 PM

lol at u idiots who think Diego has a chance...

squallsquall · 12-09-09, 05:35 PM

Originally posted by southmadejd

I was just trying to get better value. I put more on the penn, florian, mir parlay and then put enough to cover both bets on the other where I switch mir with kongo.

Instead of betting for example $80 and $50 respectively, you'd be better off betting $30 (the "extra amount") on the first parlay and then the remaining $100 on a parlay without Mir-Kongo. That would be strictly better value than the way you've bet now, since you eliminate part of the juice on the $100 parlay. Just a tip for future betting

southmadejd · 12-10-09, 12:48 PM

Originally posted by stefan084

yeah BJs guard isn't that good--retard

What are you talking about? I Love how guys who know nothing come in here and try and make certain comments that make them look like an ass.

southmadejd · 12-10-09, 12:49 PM

Originally posted by Pride>UFC

lol at u idiots who think Diego has a chance...

Agree with Pride>UFC and that pains me to say considering I am a white boy.

southmadejd · 12-10-09, 12:50 PM

Originally posted by squallsquall

Instead of betting for example $80 and $50 respectively, you'd be better off betting $30 (the "extra amount") on the first parlay and then the remaining $100 on a parlay without Mir-Kongo. That would be strictly better value than the way you've bet now, since you eliminate part of the juice on the $100 parlay. Just a tip for future betting

Ahhhhh thank you very much for this tid bit of betting. I will most certainly do that next time.

Boddhissatva · 12-10-09, 01:04 PM

Originally posted by Pride>UFC

lol at u idiots who think Diego has a chance...

Diego does have a "chance" against Bj penn...

similar to how Matt Serra had a "chance" against GSP

There are no absolutes or definites in MMA.

Diego Sanchez has the tools to defeat Bj Penn...I just don't see it happening..

Bread · 12-10-09, 09:26 PM

Originally posted by Pride>UFC

lol at u idiots who think Diego has a chance...

LOL at calling anyone an "idiot" just because they disagree with you on a sports pick

LOVED the kangaroo video. Good shit Brooks.

I'm on BJ tomorrow.

If you disagree, you are an IDIOT!! Idiots.

shady610 · 12-10-09, 11:55 PM

Originally posted by Pride>UFC

lol at u idiots who think Diego has a chance...

you probably said that before mir handed nog his arse

knownone · 12-11-09, 03:43 AM

I was surprised to see the lines how they are I expected BJ to be -400.

There is no evidence of BJ gasing at lightweight, I always hear that but have never actually seen it when studying fights.
BJ has a massive hand speed advantage is more explosive and will pressure Diego which no one to this point has done.
Diego's striking hasnt looked the same at LW he looks stiff and hasnt proved he can finish fights at 155.
Diego has poor head movement suspect footwork and is subpar on his back.
Diego wins with heart,agression and mental toughness unfortunatley for Diego those happen to be BJs strengths aswell.

I don't see Diego winning this, You don't go into a fight expecting to win on cardio.

BJ 4th round sub.

knownone · 12-11-09, 04:02 AM

Closest thing to a lock on this card is Jon Fitch over Mike Pierce.

southmadejd · 12-13-09, 08:03 PM

Dude, that Jon Fitch fight was a close......did you bet it? I would have been sweating my ass off. I actually did pretty good on this card. All the favorites won pretty decisively on my bet and I took that one guys advice and just bet Penn and FLorian for a two team parlay. It basically paid out 1 to 1. Did anybody else do okay?

So who the hell fights Penn now?