The Best Lock on the UFC 107 Card?!?!

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • southmadejd
    SBR MVP
    • 08-27-09
    • 1059

    #1
    The Best Lock on the UFC 107 Card?!?!
    Put your picks here fellas....parlays accepted also. But personally my biggest lock of this card is :

    BJ Penn at -290

    But best value is Ken Flo at -220

    There are too many things that could go wrong for Frank Mir against Kongo. If Mir can't get this fight to the ground, I think he is in big trouble. Everyone thinks his striking is good because he fought a sick Nog but Kongo will put that to rest real quick. I may just pick Kongo in a straight bet for a small unit just for the value.

    I also have two parlays: 1. Penn, Mir, Florian 2. Penn, Kongo, Florian

    Lets hear what the rest of you think.
  • teaserpleaser
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 08-14-08
    • 26015

    #2
    BJ penn is not a lock vs Sanchez, I could go into detail but Cardio and pace of the fight are with sanchez. Going to be a hell of fight but sanchez is the more active fighter. BJ stands around throws a few jabs and fights in place he doesnt move much sanchez is a ball of energy. nightmare gets stronger as the fight moves forward and bj has a history of wilting over a 5 round fight i give the edge to sanchez. I can see sanchez getting a takedown and taking a few rounds. BJs a top bjj player im too lazy to look but i think its been a while since hes subbed somebody from his guard... his guard isnt that good that rubber guard he trys to play isnt going to work on sanchez. Sanchez's ground game is underrated hes very good ADCC vet and greg jacksons bb. I've followed sanchez since he beat the shit outta my ex teammate jorge santiago in the king of the cage 2002 i think i know his game well... Trust me he has "it" This is going to be a close fight i give the edge to sanchez once Bj gasses around round 3. Theres no way no how BJ can keep up with the nightmare pace for 5 rounds. BJ stops sanchez cuts, ko, or freak poke in the eye or something or sanchez takes a dec imo theres just no way BJ can fight at sanchez's pace for 25 min.
    Comment
    • squallsquall
      SBR Sharp
      • 05-24-09
      • 273

      #3
      Why do you have one parlay with Mir and one with Kongo, instead of just one with the other two matches only?
      Comment
      • Boddhissatva
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 04-10-09
        • 655

        #4
        Bj Penn is not a LOCK. I have him winning but I wouldn't be surprised if Sanchez was able to grind out a Decision.

        Mir and Kongo...too many variables...no clear cut winner.

        Two fights to look at, in terms of value is Kenny Florian vs. Clay Guida. Guida is +160 and can very well steal this fight.

        On the Prelims, Alan Belcher vs Wilson Gouevia.
        If Gouveia is the underdog I'm going to bet heavy on him...he's a tough son of a bit*ch who took the fight the Nate Marquart.
        Comment
        • southmadejd
          SBR MVP
          • 08-27-09
          • 1059

          #5
          Originally posted by squallsquall
          Why do you have one parlay with Mir and one with Kongo, instead of just one with the other two matches only?
          I was just trying to get better value. I put more on the penn, florian, mir parlay and then put enough to cover both bets on the other where I switch mir with kongo.

          And I probably should not have used the word "lock". I just used that to show people the "Most likely to win". I think Penn constantly gets underestimated for some reason and has dominated almost every single opponent he has had at the 155lb. I think Sanchez will try to overwhelm him with his pace but somehow BJ will find a way to slow him down and make him look stupid. I definitely don't think Sanchez can win this fight.
          Comment
          • stefan084
            SBR MVP
            • 07-21-09
            • 1490

            #6
            yeah BJs guard isn't that good--retard
            Comment
            • illmatick
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 01-05-09
              • 5456

              #7
              you mma guys have so much built in anger
              Comment
              • brooks85
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 01-05-09
                • 44709

                #8


                watch this kangaroo clinch up a goose.
                Comment
                • illmatick
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 01-05-09
                  • 5456

                  #9
                  YES kartwheels are the shit
                  Comment
                  • Boddhissatva
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 04-10-09
                    • 655

                    #10
                    Originally posted by stefan084
                    yeah BJs guard isn't that good--retard

                    Bj's guard is one of the best in MMA history.
                    Comment
                    • Boddhissatva
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 04-10-09
                      • 655

                      #11
                      Diego Sanchez at +240 warrants a closer look...

                      It's unlikely...but very possible that the Nightmare pulls off the upset.
                      He certainly has the tools for it.

                      Sanchez has the cardio, aggression and ground game to hang in there with Bj penn...

                      but at 155...Bj penn has looked practically invincible.
                      Comment
                      • The HOFF
                        SBR MVP
                        • 07-02-08
                        • 4847

                        #12
                        Originally posted by brooks85
                        watch this kangaroo clinch up a goose.


                        Thanks brooks. Totally fking random!
                        Comment
                        • brooks85
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 01-05-09
                          • 44709

                          #13
                          ya, i thought that video was funny.


                          Diego definitely has a solid chance to upset bj. Look how kenny clinched with penn looking for a takedown, of course he never got it but he did control penn. There is no doubt a td would be near impossible but the clinch game wins rounds. Diego is stronger than kenny and he could hold penn against the cage for good chunks of a round. Hopefully, diego has been working on his clinch game.

                          Diego is extremely tough and has taken shots from much stronger opponents at WW and survived. Neither of these guys are going too ko each other. Diego has the power too and if he lands a kick and follows up with gnp, maybe. But, likewise, penn has taken serious strikes in his career but he rarely throws kicks.

                          On the other hand. I could see penn come out, strike with diego in the first round and just take him down the rest of the rounds. For a wrestler, diego has horrible TD% and TD defense. And, his head movement needs be vastly improved come saturday.


                          I see the fight going to a decision no matter what. And that is a good thing for diego, he has a favorable style of fighting for scorecards. But, i just cant place a real bet against penn at 155 and now he is focused on his training for the last year. He is going to be better shape than he was against kflo.
                          Comment
                          • brooks85
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 01-05-09
                            • 44709

                            #14
                            here is bj yesterday. Diego also has started a new strength program. The weigh-ins shall be very interesting.

                            http://www.bjpenn.com/video/weight-check-164



                            here is diego


                            check about 3:25 to see his status.
                            Comment
                            • urge2kill
                              SBR MVP
                              • 10-27-09
                              • 1722

                              #15
                              rofl at the video
                              Comment
                              • Pride>UFC
                                Restricted User
                                • 11-09-09
                                • 1013

                                #16
                                lol at u idiots who think Diego has a chance...
                                Comment
                                • squallsquall
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 05-24-09
                                  • 273

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by southmadejd
                                  I was just trying to get better value. I put more on the penn, florian, mir parlay and then put enough to cover both bets on the other where I switch mir with kongo.
                                  Instead of betting for example $80 and $50 respectively, you'd be better off betting $30 (the "extra amount") on the first parlay and then the remaining $100 on a parlay without Mir-Kongo. That would be strictly better value than the way you've bet now, since you eliminate part of the juice on the $100 parlay. Just a tip for future betting
                                  Comment
                                  • southmadejd
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 08-27-09
                                    • 1059

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by stefan084
                                    yeah BJs guard isn't that good--retard
                                    What are you talking about? I Love how guys who know nothing come in here and try and make certain comments that make them look like an ass.
                                    Comment
                                    • southmadejd
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 08-27-09
                                      • 1059

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by Pride>UFC
                                      lol at u idiots who think Diego has a chance...
                                      Agree with Pride>UFC and that pains me to say considering I am a white boy.
                                      Comment
                                      • southmadejd
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 08-27-09
                                        • 1059

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by squallsquall
                                        Instead of betting for example $80 and $50 respectively, you'd be better off betting $30 (the "extra amount") on the first parlay and then the remaining $100 on a parlay without Mir-Kongo. That would be strictly better value than the way you've bet now, since you eliminate part of the juice on the $100 parlay. Just a tip for future betting
                                        Ahhhhh thank you very much for this tid bit of betting. I will most certainly do that next time.
                                        Comment
                                        • Boddhissatva
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 04-10-09
                                          • 655

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by Pride>UFC
                                          lol at u idiots who think Diego has a chance...

                                          Diego does have a "chance" against Bj penn...

                                          similar to how Matt Serra had a "chance" against GSP

                                          There are no absolutes or definites in MMA.

                                          Diego Sanchez has the tools to defeat Bj Penn...I just don't see it happening..
                                          Comment
                                          • Bread
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 03-16-08
                                            • 23726

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by Pride>UFC
                                            lol at u idiots who think Diego has a chance...
                                            LOL at calling anyone an "idiot" just because they disagree with you on a sports pick

                                            LOVED the kangaroo video. Good shit Brooks.

                                            I'm on BJ tomorrow.

                                            If you disagree, you are an IDIOT!! Idiots.

                                            Comment
                                            • shady610
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 01-12-06
                                              • 1570

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by Pride>UFC
                                              lol at u idiots who think Diego has a chance...
                                              you probably said that before mir handed nog his arse
                                              Comment
                                              • knownone
                                                SBR High Roller
                                                • 12-10-09
                                                • 173

                                                #24
                                                I was surprised to see the lines how they are I expected BJ to be -400.

                                                There is no evidence of BJ gasing at lightweight, I always hear that but have never actually seen it when studying fights.
                                                BJ has a massive hand speed advantage is more explosive and will pressure Diego which no one to this point has done.
                                                Diego's striking hasnt looked the same at LW he looks stiff and hasnt proved he can finish fights at 155.
                                                Diego has poor head movement suspect footwork and is subpar on his back.
                                                Diego wins with heart,agression and mental toughness unfortunatley for Diego those happen to be BJs strengths aswell.

                                                I don't see Diego winning this, You don't go into a fight expecting to win on cardio.

                                                BJ 4th round sub.
                                                Comment
                                                • knownone
                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                  • 12-10-09
                                                  • 173

                                                  #25
                                                  Closest thing to a lock on this card is Jon Fitch over Mike Pierce.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • southmadejd
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 08-27-09
                                                    • 1059

                                                    #26
                                                    Dude, that Jon Fitch fight was a close......did you bet it? I would have been sweating my ass off. I actually did pretty good on this card. All the favorites won pretty decisively on my bet and I took that one guys advice and just bet Penn and FLorian for a two team parlay. It basically paid out 1 to 1. Did anybody else do okay?

                                                    So who the hell fights Penn now?
                                                    Comment
                                                    SBR Contests
                                                    Collapse
                                                    Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                    Collapse
                                                    Working...