keep up great work
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Thanks for the support. I wouldn’t say the work has been great lately. But, I did put some time into breaking down these fights the way I should and I feel like I have a good grasp on the most likely outcomes. Unfortunately, being very busy lately I missed the openers on most of these fights.
First, I previously posted Franklin -115 for 1.5u/1.3u and Barry +135 for 2u/2.7u quite some time ago when times were better for me from a gambling perspective and my bankroll was healthier making my unit size about 20 percent larger. Now, especially with the Barry movement, I feel the need to scale back some. I have been fading Cro Cop for the most part since the Gonzaga fight. I think he lost his explosiveness and quickness and he is a shade of his former self. I expect Barry to be much quicker and basically chop his legs down in the first round and start to land the hands as Cro Cop gets tender on the legs, even further hampering his declining mobility. Several things make me scale this play back. Barry’s cardio is untested in MMA competition. Mirko is going to be very hard to finish as was evidenced by the pounding JDS gave him. If Barry losses steam, that is untested waters. Plus, he let Hague snag that guillotine him. Hopefully he is not prone to mental lapses. This is a huge spot for Barry getting top billing at a UFC, not 100% sure how he will respond. Anyway, would still recommend Barry 1u risk from -170 to -200. I am left with a .5u/1.3u profit either way it goes.
Taking some of Franklin, at a loss, as well leaving Franklin -135 .75u /.6u, which is about the value I would assign to Franklin now. I would still take him for 1u at -120 which is available. There are a lot of questions for me regarding the shape of Franklin and Liddell. Has Liddell’s chin digressed to the point it is a major liability, or did he just take a few big shots? Does Franklin have the KO power? Is Franklin 100%? Is Chuck’s “new diet” and training regiment really a big change? Way I see it is that Liddell’s chin is a liability and has been for quite some time. Even Jardine dropped him if I recall correctly. Franklin, while he does not have huge power, does have a nice variety of effective strikes. He has shown the ability to strike inside and outside, is accurate and mixes in solid kicks. On the other hand, Liddell has yet to prove he can really adapt another fighting style imho. You can expect good cardio and a solid game plan from Franklin and I think he out strikes Liddell for the majority of the fight. Probably goes distance here, but with the question marks for both fighter’s coming in, I wouldn’t be shocked if there was a TKO either way.
Rothwell over Yvel -160 1u/.7u – You basically have to beat Rothwell with a cinderblock to put him down. His fights with Valesquez and Arlovski were stopped due to accumulation of damage. And, if Yvel comes in anywhere close to the shape that he did for the JDS fight, where he gassed about 1 minute in, he’ll need an oxygen tank before he finishes Rothwell. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Yvel out strike Rothwell in the first and maybe even hurt him, but I don’t think he finishes. Rothwell eventually will be effective in pressing Yvel on case and wearing him down. By late second and third I even expect him to take Yvel down and wear him out from guard/half. I see Rothwell TKO mid third.
Dunham over Griffin +190 .75u/1.4u – Two training partners here. Did not read if Dunham went back up to Washington to train for this since he splits time up there. But, either way, these guys should know each other well and I expect this to be a very competitive fight. Most people would probably think of Griffin as the better grappler, but Dunham has recently got his BJJ Black Belt and Griffin was arguably out grappled by Clay Guida, Frank Edgar and Thiago Taveras. Plus, Dos Anjos had him in a nasty calf splicer/crunch. Griffin does have a good wrestling base, great flexibility and good sub defense. But, he will most likely not mind standing with Dunham, with a possible shot late in rounds, to try to score some points with the judges and land some gnp. Dunham on the feet has power in his hands and will have a significant height and reach advantage. While they are listed at similar reach, MMA reach measures wing span, and Griffin is much wider, so the reach disparity is significant. Dunham does leave himself open and I think griffin will catch him coming in with combos at times, but Dunham has shown good recovery. I expect this to be a close fight, going to a close decision and I will take the +190. Also would lean on Decision at -160, but both guys have the explosiveness to finish fights. Would be larger on Dunham if not for the fact that Griffin has history of favorable judging imo.
Ok, im losing steam here, so this will be short and sweet.
Wiman over Danzig +105 .5/.5u
Wiman by Dec +269 .5u/1,3u 5dimes - I think Wiman is slightly better everywhere. Better wreslting, more power, better chance to catch sub similar to Neer fight. He has threatened Stout, Fisher and Huerta (all tough guys to finish). He does get hit too much on feet and Danzig could win rounds.
Miranda over Loiseau -200 3u/1.5u Bodog – Obviously missed out on good numbers here. But this should be -400. Miranda is Braxilian NAtl Champ Wrestler, BBJ Blackbelt and controls fights with his kicks. He is 6’4. The Crow has not won a big fight in many years and he will be beat on the feet. If Miranda does get hurt he seems to have a good chin and he will get fight down. Loiseau looked like shit against Herman and is focusing on doing a documentary, not training.
Pyle over Lennox 1u/1u +100 5dimes – Pyle is very dangerous off of his back. I thought he controlled Elllenberger from back before rib injury. He has defeated Chris Wilson and Dan Hornbuucke in last 2 years with subs. Also will have the height and reach advantage. While his stand up still seems stiff and I would expect Lennox to want to keep the fight standing, he seems to loes composure and go for take downs once he starts exchanging. Lennox wades in too, Pyle should be able to avoid enough damage on the feet to get this fight down and out grapple Lennox snagging sub by second. Or, Lennox rocks him on feet and gets the tko. I would also allocate a percentage of the time to Lennox ececuting the perfect game plan and using his wrestling base to keep fight up. But, I think value on Pyle up to -130 or so.
BOL, I a lot of time into this card (probably too much) and if it is not a significant winner I need to reavalute things.
BOLComment -
Like those picks a lot Terpkeg...I've got Franklin (by dec) and Barry, Rothwell and Wiman as well....I'd be surprised if you didnt end up with + units!Comment -
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Awesome night for u Sir!Comment -
very nice, almost pulled the
yves ruined those chancesComment -
Bellator 22
Hornbuckle over Askren -140 5dimes 2.5u/1.8u
Hornbuckle is too experienced and too dangerous for Askren imo. Askren still seems too green to be in there with a fighter of Hornbuckle's caliber. So far, Askren has shown absolutely no striking on the feet. Hornbuckle should be able to land early and often on Askren as he will have a 4 inch height advantage and a nice reach. Hornbuckle is dangerous with all six points and has power in his left and right hands. Askren only hope is to win an absolute lay and pray decision. Askren arguably did not submit Thomas in either fight and Thomas has some serious submission defense issues. He all but gave him several armbars in the second fight which Askren could not finish. Even in the first fight he was rolling for the D'arce before he had it locked. Also, Thomas created entirely too many scrambles and reversed Asrken several times. I believe Hornbuckle will actually hurt Askren from the bottom with elbows and strikes and land an armbar or triangle. Askren is impatient, his bjj is not on par with hornbuckle and it is highly unlikely he finishes fight.
After giving a small percentage of outcomes to referee mistake, injury, dq, flash ko, i still see Hornbuckle winning this 80%+. I would make this play even higher percentage of bankroll, but I am just concerned I am underestimating Askrens ability to control Hornbuckle. The fact that Askren is an Olympic caliber wrestler keeps me in check, but nothing i saw in this tournament so far makes me think he can effectively control Hornbuckle and inflict any damage.Comment -
Will this be under unified rules or Bellator rules though -- 'Cos one or the other means elbows on the ground will or will not be allowed. Just something to consider, as I don't know the answer... Bellator goes back and forth on the rules from match to match it seems.
Figured I'd throw that out there.
BOL
War Hornbuckle (not sure if I'm playing it though at this point)Comment -
I was under impression elbows are allowed. If someone knows otherwise, please say so because it is something to consider. Despite elbows typically helping top control fighter, i think they would actual help Hornbuckle. if not allowed, i dont think it effects fight enough to lower my play though.Last edited by terpkeg; 06-14-10, 10:09 PM.Comment -
I read that they are allowed in the finals, but i do not know if the source was reliable and I cant recall if elbows were in play last week int he curran/imada fight. but, it would make sense that they are legal now as bellator uses them in their other fights and they dont have to worry about losing touny fighters at this point.
Was this the same set up in season one? they were definately used in the finals then, Lombard opened up Hess with elbows.Comment -
Prangley over Kennedy .7u/1u +152 Bookmaker
This is late, but Prangley in the play range now. Kennedy's stand up has never impressed me. He has one his past few fights by being the bigger, more physical fighter. He does have great grappling skills, but so does Prangley who has great wrestling pedigree. If Kennedy cant dictate this fight with his grappling, it could turn into an ugly striking match. Prangley has a great chin and I dont think Kennedy can finish him. I think there is also a good chance Prangley takes kennedy down and steals a road with gnp from guard. I think the fight is going to be very close and would also take Kennedy at this price. Only reason not a full unit is Prangley's age and the amount of damage he has taken.Comment -
Well that was quick, wasnt expecting the early finish.
Adding:
Shalorus over Varner +150 1u/1.5u - Varner is the more technical striker, Shalorus has more power, both are good wrestlers, but Shalorus is better. I think Shalorus should try to impose his will on mat.
Grispi over Davis -130 1.5u/1.2u - Grispi has looked so explosive and atheltic. When Davis cant dictate fights with takedowns, he looks lost. Was out struck by Omigawa and Vasquez imo. Hopefully Grispi keeps this fight up and dominates it. Was hoping for + here, but didnt get it so 1.5u will do.
Campuzano over Wineland +180 1u/1.8u - Both fighters stand up looked real good last time out. I wanted to get more coverage on Wineland as my notes are not extensive, but this line just seems off and will take now and if I want to re-adjust later, I think line will move in my favor.Comment -
Bellator 21 1-0 +1u
UFC 115 6-1 +5.7u
Strikeforce LA 0-1 -.7u
RTD: 40-29 +10.4u
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Real bumped out anout Hornbuckle, sorry if anyone tailed. I really thought Askren would pay for those takedowns, after the first one he really didnt take any damage. Askren's top game looked much tighter this week too. Maybe more focused this week.
Anyway, I just wanted to add I like Spencer Fisher over Dennis Siver -175 Bodog. 2u/1.1u If Ross Pearson was -265 agaisnt Siver alst time out, I dont see any reason why this should not be the same. Fisher should be quicker to the punch just as Pearson was, and even though Fisher td defense is notoriously weak, Siver doesnt have the top control to take advantage of it.Comment -
Have the same 3 WEC plays terp. sink or swim together lol.Comment -
Bonnar/Soszynski Goes Distance -135 1.5u/1.1uComment -
No time for write ups, and honestly, I am mediocre at best, so probably wouldnt blindly tail me. But for what it is worth I am adding
Grove over Reljic +137 1.5u/2u 5dimes
Akiyama By Decision +267 1u/2.7u 5dimes
Brown +3.5 Points Handicap over Lytle +110 1u/1.1u 5dimes
Pelligrino over Sirto +165 1u/1.6u 5dimes
Madsen over Vemola +145 1u/1.4u BetPhoenixComment -
UFC 116 2-4 -1.1 (akiyama loss tough to swallow, but it was a great fight and enjoyed it nonetheless)
RTD 42-34 +7.2u
UFC 117
Almeida over Hughes -160 Bodog 5u/3.1u - This is my largest play MMA play since last Sept. Hughes has lost the explosiveness and power that made him great. Serra controlled him in their fight on the mat and Hughes struggled putting away Renzo. Hughes wont be able to get this fight down, he wont win this fight standing and if it does go down Almeida will control the fight on the ground. I wouldnt be suprised if Almeida took the fight down and sub'd Hughes by end of 2nd round. I think this should be -450 range. Too bad I didnt get a piece of +155.Comment -
This is my largest play for the weekend as well. Gl this weekend.Comment -
Old thread back from the dead
Favorite play on card is Moore +173
I think he has wrastlin to negate High. More power = more ways to finish. Dont see sub coming from either, think it plays out on feet. He needs to stay composed. Slight concern coming off of long layoff, but I think he gets better each time i've seen him.
Also playing Larkin -120, Duarte +140 and Woodley +115. Re: Woodley, UFC seems to have uncanny ability to know when it is time to cut ties with fighter. We know what we are getting with Woodley, i think he neatralizes Marquardt for all for atleast 3 of 5 more often than not.
Re: Larkin, stand up fight is what he wants and what he'll get. Lawler couldnt score takedown if he tried. Either Larkin decision or Lawlor KO/TKO, ill got 65/35 decision.
Re: Duarte, ill fade Couture against an experienced, athletic, well rounded fighter if he is favorite.Comment -
He didnt have the wrestling to negate nathan coy. Jason High have only lost to top fighters...doesnt really understand this pick..Comment -
Nathan coy trained at the olympic training center. His wrestling is on another level then High's. I agree on all these picks. GL.Comment -
yeah I think Moore has a reasonable chance hereComment -
I've got High in a few parlays, so Moore better get his ass beat.Comment -
Mee to. Isnt jason highs wrestling quite much better thans moores?Comment -
High's wrestling is better and he's rightly the favourite but jus dont think Moore should be worse than +150Comment
