agree on wilks, sobotta's a little fragile for that weight division imo
all depends on the line though, hard to expect anything less than -270 on Wilks
all depends on the line though, hard to expect anything less than -270 on Wilks
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Yee I'll be surprised if its better thn tht, but along with Thiago think its the closest thing to a lock. Will probly do a double parlay on them thn a single on Rothwell to win by decision and singles on Griffin and Hype or Die!Comment -
Sounds like I'll be on my own in the Thiago/Kampmann fight lol. Kampmann is the best striker Thiago has seen. Thiago is good at countering, but he counters with wild hooks trying to land the big shot. He still keeps his left hand down in his stance and paws to deflect punches. He also has a wide stance and leans back on his back foot leaving him open for jabs and straights. That technique could cost him as Kampmanns bread and butter is his straight right which will go right between Thiago's defence. I've watched the Swick and Volkmann fights for Thiago multiple times and he hasnt corrected this. Im really interested to see what the line is.Comment -
Yup totally agree. I'm just not sure how much he will go to it in this fight. The takedowns will be there if he wants them though. Thiagos TDD isnt great. He's been put on his back multiple times in each his last 3 fights, albiet against the likes of fitch and volkmann who r great wrestlers.Comment -
kampmann is definitely the more technical striker, only because he has been at it longer but i dont think he has any serious advantage over thiago or anyone other legit opponent, he didn't against condit, a fight I thought he lost. Kampmann did a smart move selling a guillotine choke at the end of round 1, tho it was not under condits chin, it probably stole the round because before that condit was battering him, and in round 2.
Thiago has the power advantage and a nice reach advantage to go with it. The bell saved volkmann from getting wrecked at the end of round 1, he was clearly done for. Kampmann has been rocked in just about all of his ufc fights and with thiagos style, similiar to condits, I think he will connect. I also like thiago on the ground better and in scrambles situations, that will definitely happen. It took everything fitch had to survive the subs thiago put him in and that was when thiago was a weakling, he has visibly gained muscle mass since then.Comment -
wiman -110, -115 to win 100 and 200Comment -
I agree with that to a tee brooks, more importantly I think Kampann is a little bit easier to hit, I think he's easy to time and lacks any kind of significant head movement, the fact that he was getting out struck by Condit doesn't bode well for him against Thiago
great point about the increase in muscle mass as well, the Fitch fight was almost a direct result of that, still think Kampann could steal the fight with his takedowns if Thiago starts to time him on the feet, I say if you can get either fighter at +160 or better it's a good betComment -
Martin Kampman's subs, G and P, and overall groundgame is stronger than Thiago's. Thiago is a very conservative bjj guy, he's more about getting position on the mat.Comment -
Wow I hope the betting lines reflect that view! Kampmann is game fore sure but the only fighters he has ever submitted wer McFedries, Rivera and Volkmann who all suck on the ground! At least Thiago has submitted Swick who is much better on the ground thn all of them! Condit hadnt fought in 10 months and was coming off an injury yet still took the Hitman to a split decision - which Condit should of won!Comment -
Lol the swick sub had nothing to do with his skills on the ground. Swick was rocked badly from the punch. I could have subbed him at that point hahaComment -
ya swick was done for, thiago should have done a neck-tie ha, same with the sub kampmann got on volkmann. Kampmann was beating volkman up on the ground and landing some heavy hammerfist. Volkmann tried to get up and just left his neck out. Aside, from that, volkmann, whose striking is rookie at best, had plenty of success connecting heavy shots on kampmann. Volkmann has no power in his punches tho.Comment -
ha yee exactly my point - Kampmann's ground win lead from knocking opponents down same as Thiago with Swick! Yee I had money on Kampmann against Volkmann and was very worried after the first minute and half wen Christmas was just throwin technically horrible hayemakers but almost connecting due to Hitman's almost none existance head movement!Comment -
Condit should have won? Why? Kampmann won a close fight by taking that third round and got the decision. Your opinion means as little as your overall ability to understand grappling.
Also, did you really just say Volkman sucks on the ground?
In the future it would be nice if you would do a little more research before saying something that ignorant. The man came into the UFC with a 9-0 MMA record with many of those wins by a first round submission. He's also a Div 1 All American wrestler from University of Minnesota. Oh and did I mention that Volkman was the 2008 U.S. Grappling World Team Trials champion and the FILA World Grappling champion as well? Volkman's ground game does not suck. And while Thiago did win that fight, it's wasn't some one sided match. Volkman put Thiago in plenty of bad spots that he couldn't get out of.
The way you're analyzing fights here, this simple comparison of the number of submission victories of the two different fighters mixed in with your own assumptions of an opponents talent level is going to lead to arbitrary conclusions. It's really quite lazy to simply look at who he has submitted, that's not a honest analysis of someone's skills on the mat. First of all, having a good ground game entails so much more than just submissions. Hell even under the subset of submissions there's a number of different things you have to look at to get a real understanding of what's happening.
Yes overall I think Kampmann's grappling is better than Thiago's right now. That's not to say that Thiago's grappling isn't good or that Paulo can't win a fight if goes to the mat. But what Kampman has shown in the numerous his fights in the UFC, is how well developed his grappling game is. He is extremely balanced in all areas of his ground game. Martin has shown that he is equally dangerous from the top position as well as he is from the guard position.
I mean if there is a clear difference in the grappling styles it's position. Thiago looks to capitalize on position, where Martin's grappling style will give up the superior position because he's got the great ability to scramble out.
Thiago's foundations are so rooted in classic BJJ it's not even funny. I feel like I'm watching a young Mario Sperry when he fights. He's looking to get into either side control or full mount as soon as possible and milk that position for all it's worth. It's called position hog Jiu-Jitsu. Unfortunately, all that focus on the top game kind of hides his weaknesses in terms of how raw his ground and pound is and when he's forced to fight from the bottom. Both Fitch and Volkman as well were able to punish Thiago when he ended up there. Oh and his cardio, not good.
Martin has demonstrated the ability to maximize the top position when he gets it as well but it's geared towards MMA. Unlike Thiago's grappling style, Martin can goto his accurate ground and pound and use that to pass his opponent's guard. Martin is always moving, he doesn't stick around in one position too long. So even if he's stuck on the bottom, he's almost instantly scrambling to get back on his feet.
Also about Martin's submissions, to look at who he submitted is a rather simple way of understanding things. Submissions are not only about the opponent but also when the submission was pulled off in the fight. How did Martin set it up and execute it? That's is where the skill lies. He is very very crafty with his submissions and he is fast with them too. It's often in a period where the opponent is transitioning to from one position to another and that window is open for only a split second. To recognize, then implement a sub that quickly says more about Martin's knowledge and skill with submissions. And he set Volkman up for that choke by choosing to stay in his half guard.
More importantly, do you understand how that is different from choking an opponent who is already dazed from strikes? It doesn't matter how good you think Swick is compared to these other fighters, Mike wasn't in a position to even defend the choke. Furthermore, that to even compare these two in the first place is just plain retarded.
Anyways, I'll finish this later as I'm still not done with my analysis of this match. But honestly I dont want to be a dick but could you maybe be a little more knowledgeable about the subject?Last edited by Chairib; 06-02-10, 08:56 PM.Comment -
Volkman looked to have gassed his arms out in that fight, didn't look to carry much strength into the second half of the fight, that was the only reason he didn't sub thiago imo, I remember twice in that fight thinking for sure thiago was going to tap
we need more write-ups out of you charib
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charib I want your opinion on the Hornbuckle vs Askren Bellator fight, seems to me like Askrens bjj is extremely sloppy and overrated for a purple belt, you think Hornbuckle has what it takes capitalize on that?Comment -
haha wow wer do I start with this! Firstly, why do I think Condit won? well based on fightmetric Condit had a 248 Effectiveness Score over Kampmann's 245...Condit landed more head power shots and a lot more head jabs and more power body shots - overall a 70% rate to Kampmanns 52% rate... so arguably Condit should of won or been a draw at very least!Condit should have won? Why? Kampmann won a close fight by taking that third round and got the decision. Your opinion means as little as your overall ability to understand grappling.
Also, did you really just say Volkman sucks on the ground?
In the future it would be nice if you would do a little more research before saying something that ignorant. The man came into the UFC with a 9-0 MMA record with many of those wins by a first round submission. He's also a Div 1 All American wrestler from University of Minnesota. Oh and did I mention that Volkman was the 2008 U.S. Grappling World Team Trials champion and the FILA World Grappling champion as well? Volkman's ground game does not suck. And while Thiago did win that fight, it's wasn't some one sided match. Volkman put Thiago in plenty of bad spots that he couldn't get out of.
The way you're analyzing fights here, this simple comparison of the number of submission victories of the two different fighters mixed in with your own assumptions of an opponents talent level is going to lead to arbitrary conclusions. It's really quite lazy to simply look at who he has submitted, that's not a honest analysis of someone's skills on the mat. First of all, having a good ground game entails so much more than just submissions. Hell even under the subset of submissions there's a number of different things you have to look at to get a real understanding of what's happening.
Yes overall I think Kampmann's grappling is better than Thiago's right now. That's not to say that Thiago's grappling isn't good or that Paulo can't win a fight if goes to the mat. But what Kampman has shown in the numerous his fights in the UFC, is how well developed his grappling game is. He is extremely balanced in all areas of his ground game. Martin has shown that he is equally dangerous from the top position as well as he is from the guard position.
I mean if there is a clear difference in the grappling styles it's position. Thiago looks to capitalize on position, where Martin's grappling style will give up the superior position because he's got the great ability to scramble out.
Thiago's foundations are so rooted in classic BJJ it's not even funny. I feel like I'm watching a young Mario Sperry when he fights. He's looking to get into either side control or full mount as soon as possible and milk that position for all it's worth. It's called position hog Jiu-Jitsu. Unfortunately, all that focus on the top game kind of hides his weaknesses in terms of how raw his ground and pound is and when he's forced to fight from the bottom. Both Fitch and Volkman as well were able to punish Thiago when he ended up there. Oh and his cardio, not good.
Martin has demonstrated the ability to maximize the top position when he gets it as well but it's geared towards MMA. Unlike Thiago's grappling style, Martin can goto his accurate ground and pound and use that to pass his opponent's guard. Martin is always moving, he doesn't stick around in one position too long. So even if he's stuck on the bottom, he's almost instantly scrambling to get back on his feet.
Also about Martin's submissions, to look at who he submitted is a rather simple way of understanding things. Submissions are not only about the opponent but also when the submission was pulled off in the fight. How did Martin set it up and execute it? That's is where the skill lies. He is very very crafty with his submissions and he is fast with them too. It's often in a period where the opponent is transitioning to from one position to another and that window is open for only a split second. To recognize, then implement a sub that quickly says more about Martin's knowledge and skill with submissions. And he set Volkman up for that choke by choosing to stay in his half guard.
More importantly, do you understand how that is different from choking an opponent who is already dazed from strikes? It doesn't matter how good you think Swick is compared to these other fighters, Mike wasn't in a position to even defend the choke. Furthermore, that to even compare these two in the first place is just plain retarded.
Anyways, I'll finish this later as I'm still not done with my analysis of this match. But honestly I dont want to be a dick but could you maybe be a little more knowledgeable about the subject?
Secondly, ur correct, Volkmann doesnt 'suck' on the ground...perhaps I exaggerated slightly! But just because u submitted some cans before entering the UFC and because you have some Wrestling and BJJ credentials doesn't mean you will then dominate ur opponent on the ground in the octagon. For instance Matt Veach was a NCAA Division 1 Wrestler, surely should of dominated Kelly (who's wrestling and BJJ is average) on the ground yet ended up gettin choked out. Perhaps we'll see when Volkmann and Kelly face off just how good Christmas is on the ground!
Also, you contradict yourself superbly in that rant! Yes you're right - Thiago knocked Swick down with one punch and then delivered the sub, but Kampmann hit Volkmann numerous times with heavy shots before applying the guillotine, yet you dont think he was dazed from strikes?! ...firstly Kampmann nailed Volkmann with a counter right after about 1minute that knocked Christmas down...then did it again at 2minute mark...then Kampmann tagged Volkmann with two heavy right hands and hammer fists whilst in his half guard with about a minute left thn put him in the guillotine which Volkmann clearly gave up easily due to being dazed and in state of panic from the barrage of punches he'd received throughout the round and finished it. So you ask "How did Martin set it up and execute it? That's is where the skill lies." Well he did it just the same as Thiago against Swick - by knocking his opponent down in the first place! So honestly, I dont want to be a dick but could you maybe try and not contradict yourself next time!
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That's hardly a rant. I'm actually capable of engaging in a discussion of MMA that's quite a bit deeper than the fanboy crap you post.haha wow wer do I start with this! Firstly, why do I think Condit won? well based on fightmetric Condit had a 248 Effectiveness Score over Kampmann's 245...Condit landed more head power shots and a lot more head jabs and more power body shots - overall a 70% rate to Kampmanns 52% rate... so arguably Condit should of won or been a draw at very least!
Secondly, ur correct, Volkmann doesnt 'suck' on the ground...perhaps I exaggerated slightly! But just because u submitted some cans before entering the UFC and because you have some Wrestling and BJJ credentials doesn't mean you will then dominate ur opponent on the ground in the octagon. For instance Matt Veach was a NCAA Division 1 Wrestler, surely should of dominated Kelly (who's wrestling and BJJ is average) on the ground yet ended up gettin choked out. Perhaps we'll see when Volkmann and Kelly face off just how good Christmas is on the ground!
Also, you contradict yourself superbly in that rant! Yes you're right - Thiago knocked Swick down with one punch and then delivered the sub, but Kampmann hit Volkmann numerous times with heavy shots before applying the guillotine, yet you dont think he was dazed from strikes?! ...firstly Kampmann nailed Volkmann with a counter right after about 1minute that knocked Christmas down...then did it again at 2minute mark...then Kampmann tagged Volkmann with two heavy right hands and hammer fists whilst in his half guard with about a minute left thn put him in the guillotine which Volkmann clearly gave up easily due to being dazed and in state of panic from the barrage of punches he'd received throughout the round and finished it. So you ask "How did Martin set it up and execute it? That's is where the skill lies." Well he did it just the same as Thiago against Swick - by knocking his opponent down in the first place! So honestly, I dont want to be a dick but could you maybe try and not contradict yourself next time!
All You have demonstrated is that you posses a very limited understanding of MMA. And you sure as shit don't have the slightest clue about grappling. I doubt you've even taken one Jiu-Jitsu class in your life.
Again, grappling is something that encompasses more than just submissions. And things like setups, scrambling, sweeps, and guard passing are details which seem to be totally lost on you.
And because you don't know these things, you don't discuss the mechanics and techniques of grappling that goes on in a fight. That's why you end up basing your flawed conclusions about grappling with silly discussions about centered on submissions.
When you're having a discussion on grappling, it's retarded to solely focus on submissions.
And it's this ignorance, which would cause you say something as stupid as Volkman sucks on the ground. The simple fact you would even take that position is far more telling of your general ignorance on the subject. The level of Volkman's grappling skill was readily apparent by watching the fight.
Unfortunately, you don't know and can't recognize what effective grappling is.
That's why you talk about stuff like fightmetrics. If you knew anything, you'd actually making the case about Condit's grappling. You would be talking about effective positioning, guard passing, sweeps, and submissions. Again you can't, so you talk about fightmetrics instead.
Also there is no contradiction on my part. This is yet another great example of your inability to recognize even basic techniques that are involved in a fight.
Against Volkman, you had Kampmann working his ground and pound. Now the ground and pound came from an number of different positions. Martin threw punches inside Volkman's full and half guard. He also stood up and threw strikes.
Volkman was getting hit but he wasn't dazed. Now if you knew anything about grappling or Jiu-Jitsu, what happened next is pretty much text book. When you're in a position where your opponent has either stood up or in your half-guard, the counter is a sweep to single leg and take the guy down.
Volkman does that at about the 1:42 mark and gets stuffed by Martin. Martin could have passed and got side control but instead he chooses to stand up again but stays close to Volkman. Volkman once again tries to go from that sweep to single leg once again, at about the 1:15 mark only to get stuffed again by Martin. Martin choses to stay in that half guard and throw strikes. Volkman is getting hit but he's still in the fight and tries to going for that same sweep a third time. But this time Martin is ready with the choke and it's quick. Volkman ran straight into the choke by going for the sweep.
Also the choke Martin employs is a modified rear naked. He's using his forearm and bicep against the arteries and applying lateral pressure against the neck. Volkman has nowhere to go and has to tap.
What I just described is a different thing from what happens in Thiago's fight against Swick.
Swick and Thiago are standing up throwing punches when Mike gets knocked silly. He's on his side in the fetal position, he's not going for a sweep and all Thiago does is get on his knees and apply the choke. Mike was clearly dazed and didn't even tap before going out.
Even the choke Thiago applies is different, it's a brabo choke and he uses Mike's own arm.
Again try to learn a little before you talk fanboy.Comment -
What is your obsession with grappling?! Why would I talk about Condit's grappling? I wasn't arguing that Condit is a better grappler than Kampmann...he is probably isn't, I was arguing that Kampmann shouldn't of been declared the winner! And ur truly deluded if you don't think a fighter would be dazed after taking the amount of hits that Volkmann received - read any play by play review of the fight and each one will say that Volkmann was rocked after the stand up strikes and ground and pound...to quote The Examiner: "Kampmann lands some amazingly strong shots from top position and rocks Volkmann to the point where Volkmann is very out of it. The two rise to force a bit of a stand up and Volkmann rushes in and gets caught in a guillotine. Fight over" MMAJunkie: "Kampmann in half-mount, but he stands. Kampmann moves back in and delivers a few crushing right hands to the head of his foe. Volkmann's hurt, and he tries to find a defensive position. Kampmann sinks in a guillotine choke from the front, and it's deep. Volkmann is trapped, and he quickly tap."
haha U sound like a poor man's version of Frank Mir! You must of "mastered the intricacies of moves that I haven't even learned the names of yet"! But yes I'm the fanboy! I guess we shall have to wait until 115 to see how superior your knowledge is...lets hope you don't end up looking silly like Frank did after Lesnar rematch!Comment -
Now it's an obsession with grappling? I get it now, you're a ****ing retard.
If your dumbass didn't pipe up in the first place I wouldn't have had to spend all that time trying to explain myself. And I could have focused on getting down the rest of my observations on this fight.
Next time, keep your mouth shut.Comment -
Write ups are fine but I don't know if I got the patience to deal with the idiots. Seriously, this guy is worse than littleogre and wrongsidewarrior combined.Volkman looked to have gassed his arms out in that fight, didn't look to carry much strength into the second half of the fight, that was the only reason he didn't sub thiago imo, I remember twice in that fight thinking for sure thiago was going to tap
we need more write-ups out of you charibComment -
I think we need an admin in here and do some policing, definitely been too much verbal wars going on in the MMA sectionComment -
after last saturday, today just seemed so boring
foreman wins 12rnd decision +235 risking 100Comment -
wiman +105 risking 200Comment -
about shit myself driving down the freeway to get tiger woods '11, when my phone alerts went off.
kampmann +325 risking 100
yvel +110 risking 100Comment -
condit -105 to win 100
dam these opening limitsComment -
yvel +100 risking 100Comment -
condit +130 risking 100Comment -
I see on bestfightodds tht Thiago is -215 on 5dimes and -125 on Bookmaker! Were did u get Kampmann at +325? He seems to be +165 on most?!Comment -
he did a nice job hitting the opener, 5 dimes opened him at +325
one of those monkey linemakers needs to put down the crack pipe with an opener like thatComment -
ha yee pretty amazing value right there even tho im picking Thiago to win! The Franklin Liddell and Barry Cro Cop prop bets have come out on Paddypower now which I use... Liddel by KO/TKO is +210 and Franklin by dec at +300 - considering a straddle...are these odds good in comparison to whats on 5dimes etc... that u all use?Comment -
very jealous of those odds, I would kill to be able to play at paddypowerComment