UFC on ESPN+ 7: Overeem vs. Oleinik (April 20, 2019)

[PaperTrail07]

Feels like fools gold to me......nice + to reel you in that will end up a big fat L....

Two bets I have played so far:

Tsarukyan +310, 1.88u
Golm +195, 1.06u

Haven’t done any official capping of the main event, but I always underestimate Oleinik and I feel like I could do it again. Overeem KO just seems too easy.

[Shagdogy]

Feels like fools gold to me......nice + to reel you in that will end up a big fat L....

Very well could be, but the line was just too wide to pass on, and I think people overrate Mak on the feet. Maybe he’s big enough to bully Tsarukyan all fight, but if we get two solid wrestlers who end up in a standup fight then it looks like Tsarukyan has more to offer than Mak and his lone left cross.

Besides, I don’t need to win THIS bet, I need to win a bet like this 25% of the time minimum.

[PaperTrail07]

Feel ya ........these are one of those (after I looked at all my bets).....that I feel there IS VALUE as well.....but long run was costing cash........GL this weekend-get the coffee ready W coasters LOL...

Very well could be, but the line was just too wide to pass on, and I think people overrate Mak on the feet. Maybe he’s big enough to bully Tsarukyan all fight, but if we get two solid wrestlers who end up in a standup fight then it looks like Tsarukyan has more to offer than Mak and his lone left cross.

Besides, I don’t need to win THIS bet, I need to win a bet like this 25% of the time minimum.

[bjpenn85]

Very well could be, but the line was just too wide to pass on, and I think people overrate Mak on the feet. Maybe he’s big enough to bully Tsarukyan all fight, but if we get two solid wrestlers who end up in a standup fight then it looks like Tsarukyan has more to offer than Mak and his lone left cross.

Besides, I don’t need to win THIS bet, I need to win a bet like this 25% of the time minimum.

According to my homegrown statistic fiziev has a 88% chance of winning and Tsarukyan around 35-45 % chance of winning. So its without a doubt the correct bet to make shagdogy.

[Shagdogy]

According to my homegrown statistic fiziev has a 88% chance of winning and Tsarukyan around 35-45 % chance of winning. So its without a doubt the correct bet to make shagdogy.

That’s a massive 88% you’re giving to Fiziev. Wow.

[PaperTrail07]

GL this Weekend BJ LOL....

According to my homegrown statistic fiziev has a 88% chance of winning and Tsarukyan around 35-45 % chance of winning. So its without a doubt the correct bet to make shagdogy.

[PaperTrail07]

mix and match ---------thoughts ?
Fighting - 24110 I. Makhachev -320 -Better at everything
Fighting - 24118 K. Jotko -180 -

Better at everything-less power-but depends on it less as well

Fighting - 24130 Ivan Shtyrkov -180 he does what Clark does-but better
Fighting - 24146 Movsar Evloev -330 -Seems like he will easily wrestle to the win--skill test I think he passes easy....perfect opponent for him.....

[Shagdogy]

Papes it’s gonna be real easy to say told you so when a +300 dog loses, but do you really think the line should be that wide? Have you watched these two guys closely?

[PaperTrail07]

I wouldn't do that-and I know you don't take 100's of these shots....NO-I don't at all, BUT I still think it will end up w Islam.....I was just saying after I looked over ALL (trust me a lot ) lol...of bets----it was bets similar to your that cost me a lot of $......value IS there....but result goes wrong way too many times....YES and it does remind me of Prazares Vs Naurdiev but just think Islam gets the W....

Papes it’s gonna be real easy to say told you so when a +300 dog loses, but do you really think the line should be that wide? Have you watched these two guys closely?

[PaperTrail07]

It started out on no play mode for me-but feel the sharp's brought it down to a more reasonable line----I mean Islam opened at -515!! down to -290 on some books.....

I wouldn't do that-and I know you don't take 100's of these shots....NO-I don't at all, BUT I still think it will end up w Islam.....I was just saying after I looked over ALL (trust me a lot ) lol...of bets----it was bets similar to your that cost me a lot of $......value IS there....but result goes wrong way too many times....YES and it does remind me of Prazares Vs Naurdiev but just think Islam gets the W....

[PaperTrail07]

https://www.ufc.com/news/tsarukyan-im-not-underdog solid read......seems like he has a good head on him as well as fight skills Will be a war to watch

[bjpenn85]

That’s a massive 88% you’re giving to Fiziev. Wow.

Ran a massive amount of data, and based on the numbers i got, Hes got a 88% chance of winning based on those numbers. I think in a 4-5 months the algorithm will me more precise. Now the data is susceptible for variance, or, a larger amount of variance. But i actually got Fiziev winning with over 88% chance, but the numbers are just too insane to comprehend, i just presented them as 88%. Maybe with more data the relative risk would be...lets say 71%...or 75% but there no doubt, the odds is way off on this fight, based on that algorithm.

But im pretty sure that regardless of how much data i would have had, it would be north of 70% anyway. Does that mean Fiziev will win? Hell no, only that the chances are super high. I will present these numbers every event, so you all can see...pretty hilarious.

[bjpenn85]

GL this Weekend BJ LOL....

Its the perfect reaction. If you just had said, ok. Then i would have pretty shocked. Its a natural reaction being presented of something that is absurd. So i dont blame you.

GL to you as well man!

[Hugo de Naranja]

Ran a massive amount of data, and based on the numbers i got, Hes got a 88% chance of winning based on those numbers. I think in a 4-5 months the algorithm will me more precise. Now the data is susceptible for variance, or, a larger amount of variance. But i actually got Fiziev winning with over 88% chance, but the numbers are just too insane to comprehend, i just presented them as 88%. Maybe with more data the relative risk would be...lets say 71%...or 75% but there no doubt, the odds is way off on this fight, based on that algorithm.

But im pretty sure that regardless of how much data i would have had, it would be north of 70% anyway. Does that mean Fiziev will win? Hell no, only that the chances are super high. I will present these numbers every event, so you all can see...pretty hilarious.

Should be a way bigger bet than 2u if you give a (-110) an 88% of victory. That’s like (-750) territory.

[Sanity Check]

Oleinik has trained with overeem in the past, he told Ariel Helwani in a recent interview, "he was very good on the ground, in fact, i was never able to submit him" Oleinik said.

I dont think it will happen, but Oleinik may KO Overeem out, also not very probable, but i guess everything can happen. Bad Matchup for Oleinik this is.

Oleinik dropped an interview saying he trained with Overeem 4 years ago thats why theyre acting all cool
and he said he literally couldnt beat Overeem anywhere, couldnt sub him or even come close

I hate to contribute wishy washy might-have-been, could-have-been, content.

Someone should mention Olenik has a reputation for fking around and spamming nothing but ezekiel chokes when he rolls with people. Olenik could have sandbagged and never shown Overeem his entire ground game when they rolled together. The opposite could also be true.

Overeem is working his wrestling with Curtis Blaydes @ elevation fight team. That greater takedown defense confidence could translate to gains in his striking. He can be more confident in letting his hands go and not be as afraid to get taken down.

[bjpenn85]

Should be a way bigger bet than 2u if you give a (-110) an 88% of victory. That’s like (-750) territory.

Sure. But Fiziev its in his debut, and debuting fighters typically loose 9 out of 10 times or something crazy like that. Therefor im pretty critical to my own numbers here. Not only that we have seen next to nothing from Fiziev on the ground.

This may actually be the one time the "theory/algorithm" failes. So therefor i expect him to actually loose, however, i have thought likewise before, and the numbers have told me, do the bet, and it has won with me pussying out. So this time, im actually going to move forward with it, without breaking down the fight, i just let the numbers do the job, its an 88% chance of winning, and im going to play it.

[PaperTrail07]

Very interested how this would work for MMA.....w most sports I get the #'s and math and most #'s DO TELL THE STORY........but MMA.....whole diff Animal.....honestly why I like it.......

Sure. But Fiziev its in his debut, and debuting fighters typically loose 9 out of 10 times or something crazy like that. Therefor im pretty critical to my own numbers here. Not only that we have seen next to nothing from Fiziev on the ground.

This may actually be the one time the "theory/algorithm" failes. So therefor i expect him to actually loose, however, i have thought likewise before, and the numbers have told me, do the bet, and it has won with me pussying out. So this time, im actually going to move forward with it, without breaking down the fight, i just let the numbers do the job, its an 88% chance of winning, and im going to play it.

[Shagdogy]

Sure. But Fiziev its in his debut, and debuting fighters typically loose 9 out of 10 times or something crazy like that. Therefor im pretty critical to my own numbers here. Not only that we have seen next to nothing from Fiziev on the ground.

This may actually be the one time the "theory/algorithm" failes. So therefor i expect him to actually loose, however, i have thought likewise before, and the numbers have told me, do the bet, and it has won with me pussying out. So this time, im actually going to move forward with it, without breaking down the fight, i just let the numbers do the job, its an 88% chance of winning, and im going to play it.

Soooo... you do give him an 88% chance but also because of other factors against him you don’t give him an 88% chance? Start tweaking that system to figure out how much of a chance you can give him with every factor considered. Like he’s 88% in a vacuum but in his UFC debut, with little pro experience he adjusts down to...? In the end you gotta set your line and then play the value when it’s there.

I usually average my overall confidence in a play, with the line value in a play, and then bet accordingly. My max bet is 5u so I have a scale of confidence from 1-5 and of line value from 1-5. If the average of the 2 is 2.5 then that’s how many units I’ll bet. For underdogs, I often weight the confidence higher than the line value so I’m not overbettinh big dogs. Of course this only works if the lines you set are often sharper than the books. They won’t always be but you have to identify the types of fights and fighters that you’re sharp with.

[bjpenn85]

Soooo... you do give him an 88% chance but also because of other factors against him you don’t give him an 88% chance? Start tweaking that system to figure out how much of a chance you can give him with every factor considered. Like he’s 88% in a vacuum but in his UFC debut, with little pro experience he adjusts down to...? In the end you gotta set your line and then play the value when it’s there.

I usually average my overall confidence in a play, with the line value in a play, and then bet accordingly. My max bet is 5u so I have a scale of confidence from 1-5 and of line value from 1-5. If the average of the 2 is 2.5 then that’s how many units I’ll bet. For underdogs, I often weight the confidence higher than the line value so I’m not overbettinh big dogs. Of course this only works if the lines you set are often sharper than the books. They won’t always be but you have to identify the types of fights and fighters that you’re sharp with.

Sounds reasonable.

Well, this week will be one out of many opportunities to tweak the system. My gut feeling is that the numbers have already included this factor. The system also choose Mike Grundy to win the fight, even though he was a debuting fighter. I got over 80% chance of winning...and i saw 2.90 in odds? And i was like...what the...so obviously didnt bet it. But guess what, he won.

Lets see how Fiziev does tomorrow, cant wait, im more interested in the system and then in the actual fight haha.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Sure. But Fiziev its in his debut, and debuting fighters typically loose 9 out of 10 times or something crazy like that. Therefor im pretty critical to my own numbers here. Not only that we have seen next to nothing from Fiziev on the ground.

This may actually be the one time the "theory/algorithm" failes. So therefor i expect him to actually loose, however, i have thought likewise before, and the numbers have told me, do the bet, and it has won with me pussying out. So this time, im actually going to move forward with it, without breaking down the fight, i just let the numbers do the job, its an 88% chance of winning, and im going to play it.

How does he have an 88% chance of winning? Where are these stats coming from if he hasn’t made his UFC debut? How is strength of competition factored in?

[bjpenn85]

Very interested how this would work for MMA.....w most sports I get the #'s and math and most #'s DO TELL THE STORY........but MMA.....whole diff Animal.....honestly why I like it.......

I understand MMA has a lot of outs, but i have already tweaked the system especially for MMA, lets see how the system works next 7-8 weeks, by then i probably will less cryptic and give you a better idea of how it works.

[bjpenn85]

How does he have an 88% chance of winning? Where are these stats coming from if he hasn’t made his UFC debut? How is strength of competition factored in?

I think the strength of competition, is factored in, and also him being a debuting factor. But this is in isolation, the numbers give him 88% chance of winning. But if he looses what will that mean? I dont know. I just need more time, and i will tell you how i collect the numbers later.

But you should expect Fiziev to win, strongly...more than the odds indicate.

[bjpenn85]

I hate to contribute wishy washy might-have-been, could-have-been, content.

Someone should mention Olenik has a reputation for fking around and spamming nothing but ezekiel chokes when he rolls with people. Olenik could have sandbagged and never shown Overeem his entire ground game when they rolled together. The opposite could also be true.

Overeem is working his wrestling with Curtis Blaydes @ elevation fight team. That greater takedown defense confidence could translate to gains in his striking. He can be more confident in letting his hands go and not be as afraid to get taken down.

Sure i would not weigh in on this too much. The most important thing is that, Overeem doesnt get submitted. Thats the main argument. And its a lot of data to support that, he has layed in Werdumes guard, no problemo, he has more or less gone through a whole career 20 years at the highest levels, but somehow not getting submitted, in he has fought in other divisons, like, middle weight if remember correctly in pride, where submissions are possibly more likely to happen in the heavy weight div (where tkos are mor fequent), but he still didnt get submitted, so..all factors considered is what counts not Olenik in ONE interview tells us that he couldnt submit Overeem, off course he couldnt, he just further build our case.

Overeem still may be rocked and then submitted though...thats the issue here. Overeem is brittle

[Hugo de Naranja]

I think the strength of competition, is factored in, and also him being a debuting factor. But this is in isolation, the numbers give him 88% chance of winning. But if he looses what will that mean? I dont know. I just need more time, and i will tell you how i collect the numbers later.

But you should expect Fiziev to win, strongly...more than the odds indicate.

Sounds good. Best of luck.

[Shagdogy]

Just noticed a pattern in Oleinik’s UFC career. Goes like this: W, W, L, W, W, L, W, W...? What comes next??

[BELM0NT]

This Fiziev line is interesting, its going to the point were it doesnt have as much value. Be careful here. I have him losing on my model as of right now. Still kinda early

[BELM0NT]

I will be posting a few picks i like on this card. That might be one, got my eye on a few

[Thrilla]

[Hugo de Naranja]

@Thrilla. I like this evolution of Reem. He has had so many different phases over the years.

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on ESPN+ 7: Overeem vs. Oliynik Picks:
Rafael Fiziev Round 1 KO (Punches)
Michal Oleksiejczuk Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Marcin Tybura Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Alexander Yakovlev Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Keita Nakamura Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Movsar Evloev Unanimous Decision (30-26 x2, 30-25)
Alen Amedovski Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Antonina Shevchenko Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Sergei Pavlovich Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Islam Makhachev Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Alistair Overeem Round 2 TKO (Punches)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on ESPN+ 7: Overeem vs. Oliynik

ESPN 2 Prelims:

Fight #1: Fiziev (DEBUT) vs. Mustafaev
Fiziev+Mustafaev Won’t Start Round 3 (-132) 1.32u to win 1u
Fiziev (+140) .5u
Fiziev ITD (+228) .5u

Fight #2: Oleksiejczuk vs. Antigulov
Oleksiejczuk ITD (-145) 1.45u to win 1u
Oleksiejczuk+Antigulov Under 1.5 (-125) 1.25u to win 1u

Hedge:
Antigulov Round 1 (+525) .5u

Fight #3: Tybura vs. Abdurakhimov
No Bet

Fight #4: Yakovlev vs. Da Silva (DEBUT)
Yakovlev (-147) 3.68u to win 2.5u

Fight #5: Nakamura vs. Aliev
Nakamura Submission (+560) .5u

Fight #6: Evloev (DEBUT) vs. S. Choi (DEBUT)
Evloev+Choi Goes Distance (+150) 1u

Main Card:

Fight #7: Amedovski (DEBUT) vs. Jotko
Amedovski KO/TKO (+315) 1u

Fight #8: A. Shevchenko vs. Modafferi
A. Shevchenko -3.5 (+105) 1u

Fight #9: Pavlovich vs. Golm
Golm (+240) 1u
Golm ITD (+475) .25u
Golm Round 1 (+900) .25u

Fight #10: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan (DEBUT)
Tsarukyan (+355) 1.5u

Fight #11: Overeem vs. Oliynik
Oliynik KO/TKO (+630) .5u
Oliynik Round 1 (+700) .5u

Straight Parlays:
None

Prop Parlays:
Evloev/Shevchenko+Modafferi Goes Distance (+106) 1u
Oleksiejczuk+Antigulov WSR3/Evloev -3.5 (+115) 1.2u
Fiziev KO/Oleksiejczuk+Antigulov U1.5/Evloev Decision/Overeem +Oliynik U1.5 (+3662) .1u

Full Card Props:
None

Multi-Event Parlays:
Evloev/McGee (+119) 1.5u

[Hugo de Naranja]

Small card for me. Best of luck everyone. See you bright and early.

[Shagdogy]

Added a super square parlay since lines were just getting too wide:

Overeem/Schev/Evloev +147 win 3u.

Don’t really like this play in principal but here I am just hoping it pans out.

[bjpenn85]

This Fiziev line is interesting, its going to the point were it doesnt have as much value. Be careful here. I have him losing on my model as of right now. Still kinda early

Fiziev is now 1.71...either people have listened to what i said or more likely, my system is predicting correctly and the market is rightfully adjusting, as he rightfully should be heavily favoured imo.

MMA market is also very very small, so its not that many people necessary to move the line were it is right now.

Just to highlight this, i alone, moved Max Griffin last weekend from 2.65 down to 1.93. Just with 300 dollars.

[BELM0NT]

Fiziev is now 1.71...either people have listened to what i said or more likely, my system is predicting correctly and the market is rightfully adjusting, as he rightfully should be heavily favoured imo.

MMA market is also very very small, so its not that many people necessary to move the line were it is right now.

Just to highlight this, i alone, moved Max Griffin last weekend from 2.65 down to 1.93. Just with 300 dollars.

I have had a lot experience with lines just like this. It means public is on Fiziez, and its gone to the point were the value is gone, just my opinion, gl either way