UFC on ESPN 2: Barboza vs. Gaethje (March 30, 2019)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ESPN 7:00 pm ET
Edson Barboza vs Justin Gaethje
David Branch vs Jack Hermansson
Josh Emmett vs Michael Johnson
Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Michelle Waterson
Paul Graig vs Kennedy Nzechukwu
Sheymon Moraes vs Sodiq Yusuff

ESPN 5:00 pm ET
Alexa Grasso vs Marina Rodriguez
Desmond Green vs Ross Pearson
Kevin Aguilar vs Enrique Barzola
Kevin Holland vs Gerald Meerschaert

ESPN+ 3:30 pm ET
Ray Borg vs Kyler Phillips
Maryna Moroz vs Sabina Mazo
Mark De La Rosa vs Alex Perez

[HurlSweatPants]

Thanks as always Lock. Been looking forward to the main since it was announced, but they rounded out the card pretty nicely. Interesting to see Emmet back against MJ.

No line out yet at my book for Hermansson, but I would think Branch holds a ton of value if he is dog money.

Also hoping to see Yusuff get his shit pushed in, always going against anyone that is Team Lloyd Irvin FTG

[firekillex]

solid value on Emmett if hes not done from that last injury against Stephens
MJ is trash

[TPowell]

On kk at under -150 on principle and sheymon as well. I think jg is an awful matchup for Edson. Should crowd him and make him uncomfortable in the pocket

[bjpenn85]

On kk at under -150 on principle and sheymon as well. I think jg is an awful matchup for Edson. Should crowd him and make him uncomfortable in the pocket

I wonder if Edson is equipped at this point fighting at the backfoot. Like for many years ago this would 100% been a nightmare matchup, but havent barboza now learnt to fight going backwards? I havent broken down this fight yet, but just at first glance i think that he will survive and then peace up JG later maybe get a finish.

[Thrilla]

Event Background

The event will be the third that the promotion has contested in Philadelphia and the first since UFC 133 in August 2011.^[1]

A lightweight bout between Edson Barboza and former WSOF Lightweight Champion Justin Gaethje has been tabbed as the event headliner.^[2][3]

A strawweight bout between Alexa Grasso and Marina Rodriguez was scheduled at UFC Fight Night: Assunção vs. Moraes 2. However, it was reported on December 17, that Rodriguez pulled out of the event due to a hand injury.^[4] The pairing was left intact and rescheduled for this event.^[5] In turn, it was reported that Grasso was pulled from the bout due to injury and replaced by former WSOF Women's Strawweight Champion Jessica Aguilar.^[6]

A bantamweight bout between former UFC Flyweight Championship challenger Ray Borg and Pingyuan Liu was scheduled to take place at the event.^[7] However, it was reported on March 13, that Liu was replaced by newcomer Kyler Phillips for an undisclosed reason.[8]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_on_ESPN:_Barboza_vs._Gaethje

[HurlSweatPants]

On kk at under -150 on principle and sheymon as well. I think jg is an awful matchup for Edson. Should crowd him and make him uncomfortable in the pocket

Just out of curiosity, why KK on principle?

[Demonata]

Dang i love the barboza line. Leg kicks coming!!!!

[HurlSweatPants]

Dang i love the barboza line. Leg kicks coming!!!!

Interested to see the O/U for this fight, I definitely think this has to be a 1.5 instead of 2.5 or higher.

[bjpenn85]

Interested to see the O/U for this fight, I definitely think this has to be a 1.5 instead of 2.5 or higher.

Barbozas chin is pretty good, it will hold up, and he isnt really a KO threat himself. Same with Gaethje.

Very tuf decision, its better to take starts round 2, because both fighters may be hesitant in a 5 round fight, although gaethje doesnt know what slow is, but Barboza doesnt have one punch power in his hands, he uses leg kicks to piece people up. Normally, that takes more than 1 round. That leaves us with Gaethje with a KO in round 1 is that likely? Looking past Vicks questionable chin and defence, Gaethje usually needs 1.5 rounds or more to finish, so here may the bookies mistakenly categorize this as a high probability for finish in round 1, when there mightbe less. But to gamble on when this fight will end in terms of exact round 1.5...1.7....2,2, 2.7 i mean? Its impossible, no theory can accurately predict that imo.

[The HOFF]

Can anyone direct me to Sabina Mazo's last two LFA fights against Sinn and Yariwake? Can't find them anywhere.

[bjpenn85]

Can anyone direct me to Sabina Mazo's last two LFA fights against Sinn and Yariwake? Can't find them anywhere.

LFA fights is always a nightmare, man.

[JIBBBY]

Barboza and Emmet for me too.. Justin is tough but Edson has more weapons and speed and I think he'll get the KO eventually. Won't be an easy fight for Edson though, never is with Justin.. Justin always brings it..

With the posters above on these calls..

[Unwritten Law]

Barboza will get the finish by the 3rd round.

[JIBBBY]

Karate hottie over rated. Will be looking to fade her also.. Thinking Karolina by decision myself.. Bit more skilled fighter from what I see.. Probably wins on points..https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Karo...kiewicz-101401

[bjpenn85]

Karate hottie over rated. Will be looking to fade her also.. Thinking Karolina by decision myself.. Bit more skilled fighter from what I see.. Probably wins on points..https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Karo...kiewicz-101401

And shes slows down a bit also, but, its a kind of an even fight, hard to put money down on any fighter imo.

Most fights on this card are pass imo. We go from easy to hard cards to cap now, need to get a profit, thats it. Im happy with 2 units from this card. I wont force bets.

[CasaBonita]

Gaethje is gonna do what he do best close the distance and trade, no space for leg kicks, theres always room for spining back kick tho its gonna be a great fight

Got Gaethje +135

[JIBBBY]

Gaethje is gonna do what he do best close the distance and trade, no space for leg kicks, theres always room for spining back kick tho its gonna be a great fight

Got Gaethje +135

Gaethje always has a solid punchers chance.. One thing is I'm pretty sure this fight won't go the distance.. I still lean Barbosa though.. His striking is more on point...

[firekillex]

best way to go bet Barboza
and live bet Gaethje if hes down like 1-2 rounds at + money

[HurlSweatPants]

Can anyone direct me to Sabina Mazo's last two LFA fights against Sinn and Yariwake? Can't find them anywhere.

Looked as well, best I could find was her two previous fights. Devastating head kick KOs, but it looked like they weren't against the best comp. She also has a little more footage on her Twitter, but not the full fights.

[Demonata]

I think a body shot from barboza gonna hurt gaeche and hes going to fall down and get finished.

[firekillex]

I think a body shot from barboza gonna hurt gaeche and hes going to fall down and get finished.

always gotta be careful with Gaethje though , hell bait you in like Derrick Lewis and be hurt then land a huge bomb
Gaethjes style is Barbozas kryptonite in the stand up department , somebody that will press forward and pressure like Tony Ferguson but in that fight Ferguson was getting lit up and jumped on a submission, dont think Gaethje will wrestle or go for anything like that , strictly standup im betting Barboza over almost anybody at 155

[bjpenn85]

Looked as well, best I could find was her two previous fights. Devastating head kick KOs, but it looked like they weren't against the best comp. She also has a little more footage on her Twitter, but not the full fights.

Need to find out that tdd, do you have any opinion in that regard? Standing Mazo has moderate to large edge, perhaps a 30-27 edge, but if shes getting taken down, that doesnt help much.

[HurlSweatPants]

Need to find out that tdd, do you have any opinion in that regard? Standing Mazo has moderate to large edge, perhaps a 30-27 edge, but if shes getting taken down, that doesnt help much.

Not really, I don't want to sound like Dom Cruz, but the full fights that I did watch she was always controlling the under hooks in the clinch. Keep in mind that was basically 9 minutes of fight time. The only other interesting tid bit is that her last fight went 5, and she won a UD 50-45, 50-44 x 2 so she dominated the fight. Won a UD the fight before that, also 5 rounds. Clearly, she doesn't have a cardio issue.

[bjpenn85]

Not really, I don't want to sound like Dom Cruz, but the full fights that I did watch she was always controlling the under hooks in the clinch. Keep in mind that was basically 9 minutes of fight time. The only other interesting tid bit is that her last fight went 5, and she won a UD 50-45, 50-44 x 2 so she dominated the fight. Won a UD the fight before that, also 5 rounds. Clearly, she doesn't have a cardio issue.

Lol. Sounds promising, its only the threath of the takedown who makes me hesitant.....got damit LFA, every weekend. Has Ray Borg Cancelled the bout for the 1000000 x time?

[HurlSweatPants]

Not that I have heard, matter of fact Liu pulled out but they brought in Kyler Phillips to replace.

Pretty sure they would bring a bum out of the crowd to make sure he gets a fight, apparently Brendan Schaub hooked him up with some coin for all the shit he's been going through. Too much juice on that one for me and I haven't had the time to delve into Philips.

[UncleChael]

You gotta take Justin Gaethje that's your boy Jibbbys, ride or die.

[bjpenn85]

Not that I have heard, matter of fact Liu pulled out but they brought in Kyler Phillips to replace.

Pretty sure they would bring a bum out of the crowd to make sure he gets a fight, apparently Brendan Schaub hooked him up with some coin for all the shit he's been going through. Too much juice on that one for me and I haven't had the time to delve into Philips.

What i meant is that...Ray Borg is fighting philips, but that fight is cancelled, is not because of Borg, but Phillips supposedly has an injury. So now the fight is:

Ray Borg vs Casey Kenney

We wish you good luck Casey Kenney

[HurlSweatPants]

Geezus... too much Connor noise I didn't even see that. 5d had that fight listed a couple of hours ago so I assumed it was still a go.

[JIBBBY]

MMA MANIA prelims Part 1 and 2 -




135 lbs.: Ray Borg vs. Kyler Phillips

Related
Teammate Claims ‘B*tch’ Borg Isn’t Sick, He’s Scared


Though he lost an entertaining split decision to Dustin Ortiz in his Octagon debut, Ray Borg (11-3) established himself as a top young Flyweight by winning five of his next six bouts. This set up a title shot against Demetrius Johnson, who caught Borg in one of the wildest flying armbars in mixed martial arts (MMA) history (watch highlights).
This will be his first fight since Oct. 2017 because of several issues, one of which was Conor McGregor-induced (details).
Meanwhile, a sub-minute finish on “Contender Series” carried Kyler Phillips to The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 27, where he became Team Miocic’s first pick but lost to Brad Katona in the opening round. He proceeded to lose a split decision to well-traveled veteran Victor Henry, then returned to the win column with a head kick finish of Emeka Ifekandu last month.
He steps in for the injured Pingyuan Liu on short notice.
The odds are currently extremely lopsided, leaving Borg the largest favorite on the card. I’m not sure that’s warranted — “The Tazmexican Devil” does his best work at 125 pounds, while Phillips can hold his own at Featherweight. The latter also has a four-inch height advantage and a 7.5-inch reach advantage, and we’ve seen Borg struggle when he can’t get inside to set up his takedowns.
All that said, Phillips isn’t a particularly fearsome striking technician, preferring to wing power hooks that should allow Borg to close the gap. There, the latter’s wrestling, experience edge, and phenomenal back control should allow him to dominate until he locks up the rear-naked choke.
Prediction: Borg via second-round submission
Related
Up Next! UFC Philadelphia On ESPN!


125 lbs.: Maryna Moroz vs. Sabina Mazo

Maryna Moroz (8-3) erupted out of the Octagon gate with a 90-second armbar finish of Joanne Calderwood, only to fall to Valerie Letourneau her next time out. Victories over Cristina Stanciu and Danielle Taylor put her back in contention, but she enters the cage on the heels of consecutive losses to Carla Esparza and Angela Hill.
This will be her first fight in 13 months because of a broken foot.
Sabina Mazo (6-0) returned from 1.5 years away to score savage head kick knockouts in her first two LFA appearances, earning herself a shot at the promotion’s vacant Flyweight title. She dominated veteran Shannon Sinn for the belt, then defended it against Carol Yariwaki in a headlining appearance.
“The Colombian Queen” is six years younger than Moroz at 21.
Mazo is clearly a phenomenal talent, but there’s still work to be done. The biggest issue right now seems to be that she’s not nearly as potent off the back foot as she is on the attack. When she’s moving forward, she’s a lethal blend of rapid punching combinations and sneaky kicks. When she’s retreating, she’s worryingly passive.
If Legacy would just put more of its fights online, I would be able to see if her recent strong performances were due to that or just getting stronger as the fight goes on.
Moroz has yet to live up to the potential her boxing pedigree and opportunistic submissions offer, and I’d wager that Mazo will get on the front foot early. Moroz takes the first few minutes, only for Mazo to find her groove and piece her up behind her jab for the rest.
Prediction: Mazo via unanimous decision
Related
UFC On ESPN 2 Official Poster Drops For ‘Barboza Vs. Gaethje’


135 lbs.: Alex Perez vs. Mark De La Rosa

Alex Perez (21-5) emerged as an elite prospect with a submission win on “Contender Series” and three consecutive UFC victories, among them a first-round knockout of red-hot Jose “Shorty” Torres. His subsequent battle with Joe Benavidez didn’t go nearly as well, as “Joe B” pounded him out despite the ref botching an initial attempt at a stoppage.
He had won eight straight before running into Benavidez.
Mark De La Rosa (11-1) went right into the deep end for his short-notice UFC debut, which saw him tap to a Tim Elliott anaconda choke midway through the second round. “The Bumblebee” has done quite a bit better when given time to prepare, choking out Elias Garcia and narrowly edging Joby Sanchez in Nov. 2018.
Five of his six submission wins have come by rear-naked choke.
Perez is still an extremely good fighter — it’s just that Joseph Benavidez has been thrashing quality grapplers since before the former turned professional. After seeing him completely outclass Eric Shelton in the wrestling and turn an extremely capable fighter in Torres inside-out, I have full confidence he can handle another well-rounded grappler in De La Rosa.
Perez looks to have the wrestling edge, can hold his own on the feet, and has more proven cardio. De La Rosa keeps up with the scrambles early, but ultimately falls victim to a late choke.
Prediction: Perez via third-round submission


115 lbs.: Jessica Aguilar vs. Marina Rodriguez

Jessica Aguilar (20-7) enjoyed an incredible run from 2009 to 2015, losing only to Zoila Frausto in controversial fashion while defeating the likes of Megumi Fujii and Carla Esparza. She has not had similar success in the Octagon, going 1-3 and recently suffering a submission loss to Weili Zhang.
“Jag” steps in for Alexa Grasso on two weeks’ notice.
Marina Rodriguez (10-01) brought a nine-fight win streak into “Contender Series,” where she dominated and stopped Maria Oliveira to earn a contract. She met Randa Markos in her Octagon debut just over a month later, surviving a rough first round to force a majority draw.
Half of her professional wins have come by knockout.
Even acknowledging that Aguilar has faced some scary opponents in the Octagon, it’s hard not to be disappointed in her UFC run. Beyond her wrestling looking seriously ineffective, her game planning doesn’t seem up to snuff, and she seriously needs good strategy to make up for her limited size.
Aguilar’s poor fight IQ and tendency to get physically outclassed suggests bad things for the 36-year-old. Rodriguez uses her four inches of height and two inches of reach to pile up the one-two combinations at range and punish Aguilar in the clinch.
Prediction: Rodriguez via unanimous decision
Related
UFC On ESPN 2 Official Poster Drops For ‘Barboza Vs. Gaethje’


155 lbs.: Ross Pearson vs. Des Green

The past few years have been rough sailing for Ross Pearson (20-15), who finds himself 2-6 in his last eight fights. He snapped a four-fight skid with a decision over Mizuto Hirota in Feb. 2018, but lost a bloody “Fight of the Night” to John Makdessi five months later.
“Real Deal” is two inches shorter than Des Green (21-8) and will give up four inches of reach.
“The Predator” started his UFC career strong with a split decision over Josh Emmett, only to fall to powerhouse grinders Rustam Khabilov and Michel Prazeres. He got back on track with a decision over Gleison Tibau, but fell short against an overweight Mairbek Taisumov, though he did do better than “Beckan’s” previous five opponents by lasting the distance.
Pearson’s decline has been strange to follow — his chin’s still there and there are no obvious flaws in his technique to my untrained eye, but it just isn’t working anymore. Though he still has good takedown defense and Green can let fights get away from him, I can’t put faith in Pearson’s ability to execute against top Lightweight competition.
So long as Green doesn’t forget his wrestling, he has the durability and enough striking prowess to hold his own between takedowns. Variety carries him to victory while Pearson fruitlessly searches for the left hook knockout.
Prediction: Green via unanimous decision
Related
Up Next! UFC Philadelphia On ESPN!


145 lbs.: Kevin Aguilar vs. Enrique Barzola

Kevin Aguilar (16-1) asserted his dominance of the LFA Lightweight division with brutal knockouts of Damon Jackson and Thanh Le, but his split decision over Joey Gomez on “Contender Series” wasn’t enough to earn him a UFC contract. “The Angel of Death” got his shot four months later, replacing Arnold Allen on short notice to out-brawl Rick Glenn at The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 28 Finale.
Though he and Enrique Barzola (15-3-1) are the same height, Aguilar will have a seven-inch reach advantage.
“El Fuerte” ran the table on TUF: “Latin America” 2, ultimately defeating Mexico’s Horacio Gutierrez on the Finale. He went on to win four of his next five, the lone loss a highly controversial split decision to Kyle Bochniak.
He has knocked out and submitted four foes apiece.
This is a sleeper pick for “Fight of the Night,” I’d say. Both men are entertaining, extremely active, and have distinct avenues of victory. Aguilar’s the more lethal puncher by a huge margin, but has had issues with takedown defense. Barzola, meanwhile, is one of the most prolific takedown artists in the sport, averaging more than six per fight.
It’s not entirely “striker vs. grappler,” as both are more than competent in the other’s area of expertise, but it makes for some difficult prognostication. In a fight that sees plenty of highlight reel moments, I say Aguilar’s crazy reach lets him rack up enough damage with his punches to narrowly offset the time Barzola spends pressing him against the cage or chilling in his guard.
Prediction: Aguilar via split decision

185 lbs.: Kevin Holland vs. Gerald Meerschaert

Though he didn’t get the finish, Kevin Holland (14-4) joined UFC after a successful “Contender Series” stint, only to fall short against Thiago Santos in his debut. His second fight saw him face Welsh knockout artist John Phillips and ultimately outclass his man en route to his fifth win in six fights.
He will have two inches of height and 3.5 inches of reach on “GM3.”
A brutal loss to Thiago Santos undid the momentum Gerald Meerschaert (29-10) gathered with his submissions of Joe Gigliotti and Ryan Janes, but comeback stoppages of Eric Spicely and Oscar Piechota put “GM3” back on the map. He was last seen fighting Jack Hermansson in December, suffering the eighth submission defeat of his career.
He’s submitted 20 opponents and knocked out another six.
This is going to be weird. Holland always fights like he’s improvising and Meerschaert is a bizarre blend of grit, insane submissions, and rock-bottom fight IQ. The latter can finish things at any time, but Holland looks to have a considerable stylistic edge. Meerschaert will struggle to get inside of Holland’s range and doesn’t hit hard enough to exploit “Trail Blazer’s” lackadaisical defense.
To make things worse for Meerschaert, Holland paces himself quite well, so banking on another comeback doesn’t seem wise. Holland’s takedown defense isn’t impregnable, so Meerschaert could theoretically exploit that, but “GM3” isn’t a great wrestler and he’ll have to navigate the reach disparity to make that work. Holland picks apart a relentless Meerschaert from range, mixing in some knees and elbows when the latter muscles his way in.
Prediction: Holland via unanimous decision


Current UFC “Prelims” Prediction Record for 2019: 37-22

[Hugo de Naranja]

Pretty busy again this week. Who are people liking? I'm hyped for the Main Event. Should be a war.

[Sanity Check]

Maryna Moroz could be a live dog, looks like she's training out of ATT in florida.

Mazo looks a bit green.

[The HOFF]

Maryna Moroz could be a live dog, looks like she's training out of ATT in florida.

Mazo looks a bit green.

Moroz throws 100 worthless punches a round and lands maybe 3. She is brilliant at staying out of range by about a foot and looking busy. I don’t think she has any power. Mazo is still really green, but I’ve been unable to watch her last 2 fights to look for improvement. Mazo doesn’t really have any power either. Her 2 head kick KOs were more technique and timing. Mazo hasn’t shown much defense but I don’t think it will matter. Should be a 3 round kickboxing match with Mazo actually landing some shots as opposed to Moroz just flailing her arms out to look busy. Key to this fight might be whether the judges fall for worthless activity that isn’t landing at all. I’m probably betting Mazo.

[Sanity Check]

Watching Michelle Waterson do her open workout, her striking doesn't look as sharp as it has in previous fights.

Waterson's physique is also more shredded. Waterson's gameplan might be to use her striking as fluff to setup takedowns and try to outwrestle Karolina the way that Claudia Gadelha did.

Moroz throws 100 worthless punches a round and lands maybe 3. She is brilliant at staying out of range by about a foot and looking busy. I don’t think she has any power. Mazo is still really green, but I’ve been unable to watch her last 2 fights to look for improvement. Mazo doesn’t really have any power either. Her 2 head kick KOs were more technique and timing. Mazo hasn’t shown much defense but I don’t think it will matter. Should be a 3 round kickboxing match with Mazo actually landing some shots as opposed to Moroz just flailing her arms out to look busy. Key to this fight might be whether the judges fall for worthless activity that isn’t landing at all. I’m probably betting Mazo.

Moroz is a good athlete. We can see in this fight if her moving to train out of american top team in florida makes a difference.

I know Mazo is supposed to be a kickboxing champion out of south america but when she throws a left hook hitting pads, it looks like she has never done it before in her entire life. Mazo's straight punches are ok but I think she might not have any takedown defense or much in the way of being well rounded.

There's a highlight reel of Mazo's last fight @ 2:08 here:

[HurlSweatPants]

Leaning KK, line is ripe right now at -140. Will hedge MW by dec.

Will most likely take Perez at HC as well, will take the juice, and if you really believe he will win, you can arb him with DEC and ITD prop. I am too biased toward the Blood God Gaethje to bet, going to just sit back and enjoy that one.

Haven't had as much time to cap either, and not finding too much to value in the lines when I do. If you take LM into account, Paul Craig is a live dog, as is Moraes.