UFC on ESPN+ 3: Blachowicz vs. Santos (February 23, 2019)

**bjpenn85** · 02-18-19, 03:45 PM

Dodson +245, seems generous, only 28% chance of winning? Sounds a bit off, although Yan is younger and the more active striker...

**HurlSweatPants** · 02-18-19, 04:54 PM

Yeah, Yan has those hands though.

Got to say, I dont think I can bet another Dodson fight, he's won me money but I cant take his points approach.

**bjpenn85** · 02-18-19, 05:12 PM

Originally posted by HurlSweatPants

Yeah, Yan has those hands though.

Got to say, I dont think I can bet another Dodson fight, he's won me money but I cant take his points approach.

Point approach without being the aggressor, its probably not the person you want to have your money on when going to the cards....tempting with +240 obviously...Yan by decision is probably more likely to hit....but he went to split with morales, but he also lost 2x 30-27 against Rivera, so a bit up and down...not super impressed over the fight with Munhoz either. Odds are not correct, but that doesnt automatically mean you should invest

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-18-19, 07:43 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

Dodson +245, seems generous, only 28% chance of winning? Sounds a bit off, although Yan is younger and the more active striker...

Yan is going to fuckk him up

**bjpenn85** · 02-19-19, 12:27 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Yan is going to fuckk him up

He is more than twice as active and probably better than Rivera standing, which dodson clearly lost to, so i agree 100%

**turbozed** · 02-19-19, 06:28 AM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

He is more than twice as active and probably better than Rivera standing, which dodson clearly lost to, so i agree 100%

Agree with both of you guys. The big question is where the line ends up. Are these the best odds we're going to see (-240)?

**Enfuego** · 02-19-19, 06:32 AM

I hate watching Dodson fight. He's the most boring fighter in the UFC except for the women.

The most likely outcome is Yan by decision or Dodson by decision with Yan by KO as a small possibility but unlikely.

**Thrilla** · 02-19-19, 08:40 AM

Event Background

UFC Fight Night: Błachowicz vs. Santos (also known as UFC on ESPN+ 3 or UFC Fight Night 145) is an upcoming mixed martial arts event produced by the Ultimate Fighting Championship that will be held on February 23, 2019 at O₂ Arena in Prague, Czech Republic.^[1]

The event will mark the promotion's first visit to the Czech Republic.^[1]

A light heavyweight bout between former KSW Light Heavyweight Champion Jan Błachowicz and Thiago Santos is expected to serve as the event headliner.^[2]^[3]

Darko Stošić was scheduled to face Magomed Ankalaev at the event. However, Stošić pulled out of the fight on January 23 citing injury.^[4] Ankalaev will now face promotional newcomer Klidson Abreu.^[5]

Sam Alvey was expected to face Gadzhimurad Antigulov at the event. However on January 25, it was reported that Alvey was chosen as a replacement for another bout at UFC 234 and the bout was scrapped.^[6]

Ramazan Emeev was expected to face Michel Prazeres at this event. However on February 4, it was reported that Emeev pulled out of the bout citing injury.^[7] He was replaced by promotional newcomer Ismail Naurdiev.^[8]

UFC Fight Night: Błachowicz vs. Santos - Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_Fight_Night:_B%C5%82achowicz_vs._Santos

**praisebuddha** · 02-19-19, 10:58 AM

Originally posted by turbozed

Agree with both of you guys. The big question is where the line ends up. Are these the best odds we're going to see (-240)?

I’m going to mostly wait and hope the point line comes out for Yan but also put his ML in some parlays.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-19-19, 11:38 AM

Originally posted by turbozed

Agree with both of you guys. The big question is where the line ends up. Are these the best odds we're going to see (-240)?

I bit at these odds. Would be surprised if Yan hit (-200).

**bjpenn85** · 02-19-19, 12:19 PM

what a fun card for betting or what? im on Yan as well. He wont have much problem with dodson as the fight progress. Wonder if he can finish Dodson in 3 round as well, dodson is quick and agile though

**PaperTrail07** · 02-19-19, 12:25 PM

Is Wicz gonna take my $ again LOL.....man.....

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-19-19, 01:37 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

Is Wicz gonna take my $ again LOL.....man.....

Who?

**PaperTrail07** · 02-19-19, 02:49 PM

Jan Blachowicz , I always seem to doubt the guy and he wins......Had Krylov and just remember Jan being much bigger and dominating..

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Who?

**bjpenn85** · 02-19-19, 02:57 PM

Blachowiz is back with his old trainer, hell probably win this one as well. More technical on the feet, better ground game. I doubt that Santos can outpoint this guy in a 5 round fight. But Santos has 2 rounds to finish him, than after that i think the train leaves the station...

**bjpenn85** · 02-19-19, 02:58 PM

Super annoyed i didnt pull the trigger at +140

**bjpenn85** · 02-19-19, 02:59 PM

Just cant buy him for +100 now, ill wait to see if some brazilians of casual fans move the line in our favour.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-19-19, 04:31 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

Jan Blachowicz , I always seem to doubt the guy and he wins......Had Krylov and just remember Jan being much bigger and dominating..

Gotcha

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-19-19, 04:31 PM

Who ya got for this card Unc?

**Demonata** · 02-19-19, 06:44 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

Blachowiz is back with his old trainer, hell probably win this one as well. More technical on the feet, better ground game. I doubt that Santos can outpoint this guy in a 5 round fight. But Santos has 2 rounds to finish him, than after that i think the train leaves the station...

Thiago santos will finish blachowicz

**bjpenn85** · 02-20-19, 05:12 AM

Originally posted by Demonata

Thiago santos will finish blachowicz

Blachowiz is smart, not too smart to get KOed, but he has faced many powerful guys, the likes of Cannonier, manuwa twice, sokodjou, Latifi etc, only one time in in his whole career has he been finished by strikes, it may happen, but hes sneaky. He manages to avoid those situatiios because he is experienced and obviously talented. Im not betting this fight, but i lean blachowicz.

**PaperTrail07** · 02-20-19, 02:43 PM

Feel like Yan will bring out the best in Dodson....finally make him respect someone again and wake up...-275 is too much....+225 is a small stab for me...Dodson has the tools....guy just might not go to work....

**PaperTrail07** · 02-20-19, 02:49 PM

Fire off a winner to start the betting on the card

#1) UFC Fighting
Selection : M. Rogerio De Lima 2/23/2019 0:00AM - (PST) Money Line -140 for Game

#2) UFC Fighting
Selection : M. Oleksiejczuk 2/23/2019 0:00AM - (PST) Money Line -210 for Game

#3) UFC Fighting
Selection : M. Ankalaev 2/23/2019 0:00AM - (PST) Money Line -215 for Game

Risking : 135.00 To Win : 365.53 USD

**PaperTrail07** · 02-20-19, 02:50 PM

Hopefully Ankalaev does not fall asleep and get subbed....

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-20-19, 03:34 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

Feel like Yan will bring out the best in Dodson....finally make him respect someone again and wake up...-275 is too much....+225 is a small stab for me...Dodson has the tools....guy just might not go to work....

I’ll take Yan if you want Dodson for some BetPoints.

**PaperTrail07** · 02-20-19, 03:52 PM

Want to pay you first before making other bets

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

I’ll take Yan if you want Dodson for some BetPoints.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-20-19, 05:24 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

Want to pay you first before making other bets

Fair haha

**Thrilla** · 02-20-19, 06:44 PM

Stefan Struve

Stefan Struve (28-11) discusses his upcoming fight against Marcos Rogerio de Lima (16-5-1) at UFC on ESPN+3 on Feb. 23.

Stefan Struve speaks to Luke Thomas on The MMA Hour about his return to MMA, his co-main event bout at UFC Prague against Marcos Rogerio de Lima, the state of the heavyweight division, and more.

**Demonata** · 02-20-19, 08:26 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

Fire off a winner to start the betting on the card

#1) UFC Fighting
Selection : M. Rogerio De Lima 2/23/2019 0:00AM - (PST) Money Line -140 for Game

#2) UFC Fighting
Selection : M. Oleksiejczuk 2/23/2019 0:00AM - (PST) Money Line -210 for Game

#3) UFC Fighting
Selection : M. Ankalaev 2/23/2019 0:00AM - (PST) Money Line -215 for Game

Risking : 135.00 To Win : 365.53 USD

Mad respect for posting before fights and not after!

**turbozed** · 02-21-19, 01:24 AM

I really like Carmouche in this spot. Her strength and grappling should carry the day since Pudilova has no ground game. Jumped on -125 but still think there's value at -140.

**PaperTrail07** · 02-21-19, 12:23 PM

Yessir Agree w Carmouche as well....she is a little bowling ball...

Originally posted by Demonata

Mad respect for posting before fights and not after!

**bjpenn85** · 02-21-19, 12:36 PM

I agree, i also think Carmouche will win, as narrow as the decision might be, i doubt that Pudilova can stay vertical the first two round, last round coasting, no judge will give the 3.round a 10-8 although she might put in on Courmouche at the end, if you have Pudilova you will probably stand up and shout to the TV; common you russian p, you can do it, push forward whatever. In the end it wont matter 29-28 Carmouche imo.

**magpie878** · 02-21-19, 02:00 PM

Still relatively new to following MMA and don't know most of these guys.

One post above mentioned late replacements in a couple matches.

Do last-minute replacement guys usually lose, with little prep time or whatever?

**magpie878** · 02-21-19, 02:07 PM

Yan at -304 on PointsBet and -305 on DK here in NJ