UFC on ESPN: Ngannou vs. Velasquez, will be held on February 17, 2019

**PaperTrail07** · 02-15-19, 02:02 PM

They aren't out yet......ITD best odds right now is 5D +130 and just taking him is +135 LOL...

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Originally posted by 135iVert

Does anyone have the odds for Francis by KO/TKO, Francis ITD, and Francis by Round 1 Stoppage? I am trying to hedge Cain.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-15-19, 02:10 PM

Originally posted by 135iVert

Does anyone have the odds for Francis by KO/TKO, Francis ITD, and Francis by Round 1 Stoppage? I am trying to hedge Cain.

They will probably all be similar. If you like Cain it might be better to just let it ride.

**PaperTrail07** · 02-15-19, 02:18 PM

Yeah round one maybe +180? maybe lol.

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Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

They will probably all be similar. If you like Cain it might be better to just let it ride.

**magpie878** · 02-15-19, 02:33 PM

DK (known for bad juice) right now in NJ:

Ngannou down to +125 ML
Going Distance: +425 yes -715 no
Ngannou by KO/TKO/DQ: +135
Ngannou by Decision: +1400
Ngannou by Sub: +2000
Ngannou to win by any knockout/sub/DQ: +130
Ngannou winning in round 1 (+250), 2 (+700), 3 (+1600), 4 (+2800), 5 (+4000)
Ngannou winning in round 1 or 2: +165, 3-4 (+1000), 5/Dec. (+1300)

**Shagdogy** · 02-15-19, 08:29 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

It okay to differ on opinion GL SHAG.......the old posters would have turned this into a WAR lol.....GL to everyone...

Very true....MB is a specialist no doubt but I feel he is on the higher end....Lopez.....seen people w better everything and don't feel he is near elite anywhere....no saying he has to to KO a guy but well see...

I don’t mind a disagreement. Good to hear the other side and not just be in a thought vacuum. If Lopez loses it will most likely be by sub so Bermudez backers will yet again be confirmed by the outcome, but he will still have to answer the question of what happens when you can’t get an early sub on a UFC level guy? Does he have anything else?

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-16-19, 12:35 AM

Ngannou R1 opened (+375) on 5dimes. Shocked about that. Got a good amount down at (+375) and (+325)

**turbozed** · 02-16-19, 02:20 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Ngannou R1 opened (+375) on 5dimes. Shocked about that. Got a good amount down at (+375) and (+325)

Good catch Hugo. I was looking for R1 prop here (got +500 against Blaydes) but too late and now down to +200 so have to pass. It's always Francis' best way of winning.

**Shagdogy** · 02-16-19, 07:25 AM

Hey turbo what’s your call on these WMMA fights?

I’ve got Albu and Lee to win. More confident in Lee. Casey as value, and don’t care at all about Penne/Esquibel. You playing any of these?

**Wohlford** · 02-16-19, 10:01 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Ngannou R1 opened (+375) on 5dimes. Shocked about that. Got a good amount down at (+375) and (+325)

Unless things have changed since Tony disappeared, that means you got down $50 on each number?

**Shagdogy** · 02-16-19, 12:07 PM

Bermudez misses by 5lbs. Probably helps his chances of an early finish just a little bit but doesn’t have much affect on the fight past round 1 if it gets there, unless he has more gas and is able to lean on Benito and drain him.

**Dim mak** · 02-16-19, 12:36 PM

Cain says he is feeling good so I have to believe him. Can't imagine why he would take this fight if he didn't feel ready. No way he is going to stand with Francis so he must be ready to grind him down.

**bjpenn85** · 02-16-19, 01:13 PM

Originally posted by Wohlford

Unless things have changed since Tony disappeared, that means you got down $50 on each number?

Tony. What an absolute prick.

**Broxbomber** · 02-16-19, 01:34 PM

Long shot bet.

I feel that Cain’s best path to victory is through taking FN down and ground and pound him. FN’s strengths are totally negated when he is on his back. FN has a very good chin, so I see the possibility of Cain grounding and pounding FN and then going for a RNC since it is a quicker route for a finish. This reminds me of DC vs Black Beast. Stipe could have easily RNC FN in their fight.

On Bet365 you can get the following odds which I think are great:

Cain by Sub Rd 1 is +5000
Cain by Sub Rd 2 is +6600
Cain by Sub Rd 3 is +8000
Cain by Sub Rd 4 is +10000
Cain by Sub Rd 5 is +10000

I put $10 on each. I can’t bet Cain by Sub on Bet365

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-16-19, 02:11 PM

Originally posted by Broxbomber

Long shot bet.

I feel that Cain’s best path to victory is through taking FN down and ground and pound him. FN’s strengths are totally negated when he is on his back. FN has a very good chin, so I see the possibility of Cain grounding and pounding FN and then going for a RNC since it is a quicker route for a finish. This reminds me of DC vs Black Beast. Stipe could have easily RNC FN in their fight.

On Bet365 you can get the following odds which I think are great:

Cain by Sub Rd 1 is +5000
Cain by Sub Rd 2 is +6600
Cain by Sub Rd 3 is +8000
Cain by Sub Rd 4 is +10000
Cain by Sub Rd 5 is +10000

I put $10 on each. I can’t bet Cain by Sub on Bet365

Not a bad shot to take. Ngannou has never been KOed but has been submitted once. Cain doesn't go for a lot of submissions but if the fight is on the mat for an extended period, you never know.

**HurlSweatPants** · 02-16-19, 02:59 PM

Caceres line is catching some steam from the opener. All the other dogs have softened for the most part.

Eager for the weigh-ins.

**Shagdogy** · 02-16-19, 03:33 PM

Originally posted by HurlSweatPants

Caceres line is catching some steam from the opener. All the other dogs have softened for the most part.

Eager for the weigh-ins.

Ceremonial weigh ins? Actual weigh ins already happened. Bermudez, Penne, Barao all missed. AES and Calvillo needed the towel.

**HurlSweatPants** · 02-16-19, 04:05 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Ceremonial weigh ins? Actual weigh ins already happened. Bermudez, Penne, Barao all missed. AES and Calvillo needed the towel.

Damn, I was duped. This Sunday fight card is throwing me off, for some reason thought they were going at it tonight. Why, I don't know. Going to watch it now, doesn't surprise me that Barao missed. Thanks for the reality check.

**jacharron17** · 02-16-19, 04:06 PM

N'Gannou has a 60% chance of winning.

**HurlSweatPants** · 02-16-19, 04:12 PM

Berm missed by 5 geez.

**Snowball** · 02-16-19, 04:41 PM

Originally posted by Dim mak

Cain says he is feeling good so I have to believe him. Can't imagine why he would take this fight if he didn't feel ready. No way he is going to stand with Francis so he must be ready to grind him down.

if he can do that i would rather have over 1.5 rds for +100
for obvious reasons

**Snowball** · 02-16-19, 07:08 PM

mental leans after research
commits tomorrow

albu - sub or regular
penne
holtzman decision/ko
ash + but hedge w/lee by sub +300
berm scorecard no act
jury and inside dist
gracie inside dist
casey hang in *not calv in dist
felder scorecard no action
cain fight - maybe over 1.5 but its tough

**Shagdogy** · 02-17-19, 01:21 AM

Man I do not trust the shape Velasquez is in at all. Maybe he'll turn out a vintage performance here but I'm going with Ngannou KO and I don't think it's out of the question that Ngannou might toss Cain around a little bit when Cain closes distance and looks for the clinch. Cain is looking small and soft. I know Stipe was able to get in and get Ngannou to the mat but he's a real, current era HW who weighs in at the upper end of the weight class and is built pretty damn solid. And it wasn't easy for him. He needed to rely on his chin a bit early. This comeback is asking a lot from Cain.

**bjpenn85** · 02-17-19, 04:40 AM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Man I do not trust the shape Velasquez is in at all. Maybe he'll turn out a vintage performance here but I'm going with Ngannou KO and I don't think it's out of the question that Ngannou might toss Cain around a little bit when Cain closes distance and looks for the clinch. Cain is looking small and soft. I know Stipe was able to get in and get Ngannou to the mat but he's a real, current era HW who weighs in at the upper end of the weight class and is built pretty damn solid. And it wasn't easy for him. He needed to rely on his chin a bit early. This comeback is asking a lot from Cain.

Cain haas always had really soft body. It doesnt look like hes ever trained, so when hes been out for 2 years, then hes body understandably looks even worse. But how much stock can you put into that?

Im on Ngannou, but...i dont look at Cains body, its more like the whole situation overall that gets me interested in Ngannou, with cains layoff, injuries, Ngannous tdd, perhaps it has improved a bit as well, Cain was also outlanded against werdum in the first round, hes there to be hit etc.

**bjpenn85** · 02-17-19, 09:29 AM

Sterling vs Rivera, Lentz vs holtzman, Vick vs felder handicap odds are not offered. Pretty annoying!

**bjpenn85** · 02-17-19, 09:37 AM

Sterling +3,5 handicap would have been pretttttttttty easy money here i think...

**The HOFF** · 02-17-19, 11:40 AM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

Sterling vs Rivera, Lentz vs holtzman, Vick vs felder handicap odds are not offered. Pretty annoying!

This. Waiting all week for a Lentz +3.5 to see it not offered this morning.

**bjpenn85** · 02-17-19, 12:49 PM

Originally posted by The HOFF

This. Waiting all week for a Lentz +3.5 to see it not offered this morning.

I had the feeling actually, they are "snakes in the grass" much more now then before. Cat and mouse game ill guess,no fairtrade bizz around here, they dont serve our kind HOFF

**bjpenn85** · 02-17-19, 12:52 PM

I guess the logical step would be to go for ashley evans smith +3.5 handicap, its not 100% like Lentz, but i with the amount of clumsyness Andre Lee stands for, shes most likely giving up a takedown or two maybe in round 2 after winning decisively in round 1 i expect.

I mean Sterling +3.5 handicap, and lentz +3.5....im so mad right now.

**A1pha** · 02-17-19, 01:00 PM

Albu -115 1 Unit
Holtzman -185 1 UnitVelasquez -175 1 UnitVelasquez wins by TKO/KO +117 0.5 UnitFelder +100 1 UnitFili +125 0.5 UnitRivera -135 1 UnitBermudez -185 1.5 Unit Bermudez/Lopez o1.5 -120 0.5 UnitBarao/Sanders WGTD -115 0.5 UnitBarberena/Luque GTD +115 0.5 UnitBarbarena handicap +3½ +165 0.5 UnitSome Fliers worth taking IMORivera wins by TKO/KO +586Albu BY decision +211 Cain anywhere from rds 3 and up crazy odds.

**A1pha** · 02-17-19, 01:00 PM

Albu -115 1 Unit
Holtzman -185 1 Unit
Velasquez -175 1 Unit
Velasquez wins by TKO/KO +117 0.5 Unit
Felder +100 1 Unit
Fili +125 0.5 Unit
Rivera -135 1 Unit
Bermudez -185 1.5 Unit
Bermudez/Lopez o1.5 -120 0.5 Unit
Barao/Sanders WGTD -115 0.5 Unit
Barberena/Luque GTD +115 0.5 Unit
Barbarena handicap +3½ +165 0.5 Unit

Some Fliers worth taking IMO
Rivera wins by TKO/KO +586, Albu BY decision +211 Cain anywhere from rds 3 and up crazy odds.

**JC2008** · 02-17-19, 02:28 PM

Anyone else smell some robberies/dirty decisions tonight...? What is everyone's TOP PLAY (1 only please)?

**Fence** · 02-17-19, 02:45 PM

I sense a disturbance as well - not too many cards held in AZ that I know of. One fight that I believe a lot of people are overlooking is Alex Caceres Vs Kron Gracie. Caceres has been slowly dropping from 270+ and now down to 210+ (bookmaker). So a lot of sharp money is coming in on Alex - reason being is Kron, although a world-class BJJ practitioner, has terrible striking and very, very little experience. He has only beat an old, over-the-hill Kawajiri. This would be my top play - but I still have yet to pull the trigger... ...still mulling.

Out of Alex's sub losses - they usually happen in 2nd or 3rd round which means one could possibly hedge a Kron sub in 2nd / 3rd round. But, again, I still believe his "Gracie" style is still too outdated. One interesting thing to note is he has not had an MMA bout in 2 and a quarter years - and if you check out his social media it appears that he has been training striking a great deal - basically trains with the scrap pack in Stockton / Cali. So, the question is, has he done enough to cover the necessary ground?

Alex's TDD isn't terrible and he appears to be much quicker than Kron on the feet. However, Alex's fight IQ has keptme from pulling the trigger so far.

**JC2008** · 02-17-19, 02:47 PM

Lots of money going in on Barao. Maybe Barao decision +400?

**The HOFF** · 02-17-19, 03:53 PM

Cain Velasquez -160 (8u to win 5u)
Andrea Lee -175 (3.5u to win 2u)
Nik Lentz +160 (3u to win 4.8u)
Aleksndra Albu -115 (3.45u to win 3u)

Here's what I have so far for the card tonight. Was looking at Lee/Evans-Smith goes to decision -190, but liked Lee straight up just a bit more with how far the line has come down. I would have been pretty heavy on Lentz +3.5 but 5Dimes isn't offering it. I still like Lentz as this much of a dog. Again because of the line movement, I'm playing Albu. Definite strength advantage and stand up advantage. Cardio issue might surface late but hoping it won't cost her the fight. I really feel Velasquez just needs to land one takedown in the first round and he'll take the fight. He can keep Ngannou down, wear him out, and make it like the Miocic fight.

**bjpenn85** · 02-17-19, 04:18 PM

Originally posted by The HOFF

Cain Velasquez -160 (8u to win 5u)
Andrea Lee -175 (3.5u to win 2u)
Nik Lentz +160 (3u to win 4.8u)
Aleksndra Albu -115 (3.45u to win 3u)

Here's what I have so far for the card tonight. Was looking at Lee/Evans-Smith goes to decision -190, but liked Lee straight up just a bit more with how far the line has come down. I would have been pretty heavy on Lentz +3.5 but 5Dimes isn't offering it. I still like Lentz as this much of a dog. Again because of the line movement, I'm playing Albu. Definite strength advantage and stand up advantage. Cardio issue might surface late but hoping it won't cost her the fight. I really feel Velasquez just needs to land one takedown in the first round and he'll take the fight. He can keep Ngannou down, wear him out, and make it like the Miocic fight.

Interesting bets, you always have slightly different angle, i enjoy that. I like the rationale. Im hoping Ngannou will send cain to mars though.