UFC on ESPN: Ngannou vs. Velasquez, will be held on February 17, 2019

[bjpenn85]

Fight card

Heavyweight	Francis Ngannou	vs.	Cain Velasquez
Lightweight	James Vick	vs.	Paul Felder
Women's Strawweight	Cortney Casey	vs.	Cynthia Calvillo
Featherweight	Alex Caceres	vs.	Kron Gracie
Welterweight	Vicente Luque	vs.	Bryan Barberena
Featherweight	Andre Fili	vs.	Myles Jury
Bantamweight	Jimmie Rivera	vs.	Aljamain Sterling
Bantamweight	Benito Lopez	vs.	Manny Bermudez
Women's Flyweight	Ashlee Evans-Smith	vs.	Andrea Lee
Lightweight	Scott Holtzman	vs.	Nik Lentz
Bantamweight	Renan Barão	vs.	Luke Sanders
Women's Strawweight	Jessica Penne	vs.	Jodie Esquibel
Women's Strawweight	Aleksandra Albu	vs.	Emily Whitmire

[bjpenn85]

Looks super difficult to squiz out any juice from this. I think Lopez has a shot if he can avoid getting taken down, if the fight hits the mat its game over. Whole card is a toss up matches in my eyes!

[HurlSweatPants]

I think there are several live dogs here.

Barao is a shell, but the guy can still bang, and against Sanders at 150 that line is too far off IMO. Barao has better striking, he's been through wars, and the level of competition he's faced is much better.

I also like the 170 for FN in the main. He's going against one of my all time favs, but we really don't know what Cain is anymore. We saw what FN did to the an elite wrestler in Blades. Even if you back Cain I would highly suggest hedging with FN ITD, KO, or 1st round.

Sterling, Lopez and Fili are other dogs I'm leaning initially.

Even Casey at 280 isn't a bad line, if it hits the mat she could be in trouble, but she is a machine and should have a decisive physical advantage which could nullify CCs jitz. She seems to be around in every fight (last 3 fights have been SD), and had her moments early against Claudia Gadelha despite the UD loss.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I think there are several live dogs here.

Barao is a shell, but the guy can still bang, and against Sanders at 150 that line is too far off IMO. Barao has better striking, he's been through wars, and the level of competition he's faced is much better.

I also like the 170 for FN in the main. He's going against one of my all time favs, but we really don't know what Cain is anymore. We saw what FN did to the an elite wrestler in Blades. Even if you back Cain I would highly suggest hedging with FN ITD, KO, or 1st round.

Sterling, Lopez and Fili are other dogs I'm leaning initially.

Even Casey at 280 isn't a bad line, if it hits the mat she could be in trouble, but she is a machine and should have a decisive physical advantage which could nullify CCs jitz. She seems to be around in every fight (last 3 fights have been SD), and had her moments early against Claudia Gadelha despite the UD loss.

Barao is shot to hell. I like the Ngannou pick though

[bjpenn85]

Barao is shot to hell. I like the Ngannou pick though

I will play Ngannou tko, im just wondering if he also has a shot outside round 1 for the straight pick also. I do think the line will get worse, so maybe i take a stab now.

I dont know about Barao, i need to re-watch tape, damn he lost to brian kelleher?? jesus he isnt just shot, more like walking dead, maybe sanders holds vallue here?

Yes, i dont understand the andre fili line, why is he the underdog, i he could easily be the favourite here.

Sterling, sure, 100% a 50/50 fight, Calvillo may struggle on the feet. Can be a very close fight.

Youre right, there are a lot of dogs you can play. But i will only play them for like a half a unit.

[HurlSweatPants]

Barao is shot to hell. I like the Ngannou pick though

Yeah, not necessarily picks, just pointing out some dogs that stand out to me initially.

Barao might be shot, but to me, Luke Sanders is what Austin Arnett is to BJ lol. He has continuously shown low fighter IQ. I'm either Barao (if he can make weight) or pass.

[HurlSweatPants]

I will play Ngannou tko, im just wondering if he also has a shot outside round 1 for the straight pick also. I do think the line will get worse, so maybe i take a stab now.

I dont know about Barao, i need to re-watch tape, damn he lost to brian kelleher?? jesus he isnt just shot, more like walking dead, maybe sanders holds vallue here?

Yes, i dont understand the andre fili line, why is he the underdog, i he could easily be the favourite here.

Sterling, sure, 100% a 50/50 fight, Calvillo may struggle on the feet. Can be a very close fight.

Youre right, there are a lot of dogs you can play. But i will only play them for like a half a unit.

Agree on the Fili line, that was the one that stood out the most initially.

In my dreams, Cain ducks under a FN hammer and reproduces his hook that KOd Nog. In reality, the most likely way that Cain wins is winning the clinch, using heavy ground strikes, and exposing Ngannous cardio. Stipe made the blueprint, will Cain follow it? That is the real question.

[Demonata]

Cain velasquez if he didn't get injuries I feel could have been the best at his weight class of all time. He will beat ngannou easy.

[PaperTrail07]

Lot of value with Bermudez IMO.....

Looks super difficult to squiz out any juice from this. I think Lopez has a shot if he can avoid getting taken down, if the fight hits the mat its game over. Whole card is a toss up matches in my eyes!

[PaperTrail07]

Casey shouldn't be THAT big of a dog either....Cavillo is good and quick but by no means a lock

[bjpenn85]

Cain velasquez if he didn't get injuries I feel could have been the best at his weight class of all time. He will beat ngannou easy.

Couldnt agree more. I still think that Ngannou holds value, since it is on paper a close fight. But my gut feeling tells me that cain will be smart and wrestle, and cains cardio is a couple of notches over stipe. Cardio cain is a one of a kind type of guy. If just 60-70% of cardio cain shows up, he will win, and i absolutely think that a shell of the old cain will be present. So im waiting on cain handicap in a parlay saturday.

[bjpenn85]

Lot of value with Bermudez IMO.....

Bermudez is tricky. Hes a demian maia with athleticism, so that sucks for lopez. He still struggles a little bit on the feet. Gets tagged, and dropped. Most likely he will struggle in round 1...it will look very promising for Lopez, hes going to win up until a point....anik will scream so the +200 underdoooogs seems to come thr......and theres the submission.

But i think Bermudez will struggle, and im willing to take the chance at +200.

If youre playing Bermudez, youre not playing him at current line Paper, because if this fight doesnt end with submission, Bermudez wont win. Its a super polar fight. Its either bermudez sub, or Lopez by TKO or decision. So at current line there isnt any value IMO. Only a juicy line on bermudez that you shouldnt play.

[bjpenn85]

Casey shouldn't be THAT big of a dog either....Cavillo is good and quick but by no means a lock

Super duper wrong line here. With better tdd Casey should have been the favourite, but her tdd kind of sucks. I also question her fight iq at times, so....still made a bet on her, line is crazy.

[PaperTrail07]

I just feel Ber is much more skilled....most likely will play ITD bc hes not pointing anyone to death, that's for sure.....like you said Benito will use his size and length for a while...but I feel MB will find a way to get inside and sub him out

Bermudez is tricky. Hes a demian maia with athleticism, so that sucks for lopez. He still struggles a little bit on the feet. Gets tagged, and dropped. Most likely he will struggle in round 1...it will look very promising for Lopez, hes going to win up until a point....anik will scream so the +200 underdoooogs seems to come thr......and theres the submission.

But i think Bermudez will struggle, and im willing to take the chance at +200.

If youre playing Bermudez, youre not playing him at current line Paper, because if this fight doesnt end with submission, Bermudez wont win. Its a super polar fight. Its either bermudez sub, or Lopez by TKO or decision. So at current line there isnt any value IMO. Only a juicy line on bermudez that you shouldnt play.

[JIBBBY]

Cain velasquez if he didn't get injuries I feel could have been the best at his weight class of all time. He will beat ngannou easy.

I agree.. Ngannou has a punchers chance early on and that's it.. He's gonna get grounded and pounded out eventually in this fight.. Cain's cardio, pressure, clinch, and then ground game will be to much..

[PaperTrail07]

considering 1 TD and good control is all it takes.....yeah..... Ngannou reminds me of an old PRIDE fighter...

I agree.. Ngannou has a punchers chance early on and that's it.. He's gonna get grounded and pounded out eventually in this fight.. Cain's cardio, pressure, clinch, and then ground game will be to much..

[bjpenn85]

I just feel Ber is much more skilled....most likely will play ITD bc hes not pointing anyone to death, that's for sure.....like you said Benito will use his size and length for a while...but I feel MB will find a way to get inside and sub him out

Hes much more skilled in that one area, overall hes not much more skilled. He struggled against Morales, and, honestly, if you struggle and cant take down Morales for almost 1.5 rounds, thats the lower end of the ufc spectrum you may run into troubles very soon. Still i dont know if you can just say because of that one fight, he couldnt get a takedown, then he will struggle in every fight. Thats not my point, but, it may be an indication that he need to work with his entries, or just be a bit more slicker with his setup, or it can be that he was off that particular night.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Yeah, not necessarily picks, just pointing out some dogs that stand out to me initially.

Barao might be shot, but to me, Luke Sanders is what Austin Arnett is to BJ lol. He has continuously shown low fighter IQ. I'm either Barao (if he can make weight) or pass.

Totally disagree on this one. Let's get a BetPoints bet going. I'll take Sanders (-170).

[Hugo de Naranja]

I agree.. Ngannou has a punchers chance early on and that's it.. He's gonna get grounded and pounded out eventually in this fight.. Cain's cardio, pressure, clinch, and then ground game will be to much..

Ngannou has a BIG Puncher's Chance. He is not easy to take down, especially early. And this is coming from someone who had 5u on Stipe against Ngannou when they fought.

[JIBBBY]

Ngannou has a BIG Puncher's Chance. He is not easy to take down, especially early. And this is coming from someone who had 5u on Stipe against Ngannou when they fought.

Ngannou cardio is the problem.. Cain is a cardio machine. Like I said Ngannou has a punchers chance early.. Once that cardio is tapped out Cain will bring the fight to the ground and game over..

Perhaps Ngannou round 1 finish prop and then hedge Cain ITD the other way is how I'm gonna play it.. That is if I decide to play it safe. I think Cain gets this regardless..

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hes much more skilled in that one area, overall hes not much more skilled. He struggled against Morales, and, honestly, if you struggle and cant take down Morales for almost 1.5 rounds, thats the lower end of the ufc spectrum you may run into troubles very soon. Still i dont know if you can just say because of that one fight, he couldnt get a takedown, then he will struggle in every fight. Thats not my point, but, it may be an indication that he need to work with his entries, or just be a bit more slicker with his setup, or it can be that he was off that particular night.

I wouldn't say he struggled with Morales. Was attempting dangerous subs all fight until he finished him in R2. I think Bermudez striking is a bit underrated as well. He's not the most technical but he has some power. He Knocked Davey Grant Down before putting him Out Cold with his signature Triangle Choke.

[Hugo de Naranja]

@Jibby I think Cain is the more skilled fighter and is capable of winning this fight anywhere it goes. However, a Big Puncher like Ngannou is not the type of style matchup that you want coming off a long layoff. Ngannou will not allow Cain to settle in and will hit him with big strikes early. I'm picking Ngannou by early KO. If he doesn't finish in R1, his chances of winning go down drastically.

[Thor4140]

Ngannou has a BIG Puncher's Chance. He is not easy to take down, especially early. And this is coming from someone who had 5u on Stipe against Ngannou when they fought.

Sometimes Cain thinks he is a better boxer than he really is. He could win this fight probably easier that Stipe with the same game plan but man i don’t trust him. I hope he wins in a great fight because he is good for the sport but no way will my cash be bet on him. He has to tire him out than he can swing with him but with Cain he might think he can swing with him right of the bat. I think i to lean Ngannou here.

[Thor4140]

Cain an DC need to go the the WWE and become the nastiest tag team champions in the history of the sport. Probably make way more money. Than they can turn on each other and we can finally see them fight.

[HurlSweatPants]

Totally disagree on this one. Let's get a BetPoints bet going. I'll take Sanders (-170).

We'll talk closer to fight time. Sentiment seems to be that Sanders will win, line probably moves in my favor closer to fight time. Plus I want to see him on the scale, if he comes in weighing 5 lbs over, it ain't happening captain.

[Hugo de Naranja]

We'll talk closer to fight time. Sentiment seems to be that Sanders will win, line probably moves in my favor closer to fight time. Plus I want to see him on the scale, if he comes in weighing 5 lbs over, it ain't happening captain.

Fair enough. I'll keep that in mind. I think if Barao fails to get a R1 finish he is toast.

[bjpenn85]

I wouldn't say he struggled with Morales. Was attempting dangerous subs all fight until he finished him in R2. I think Bermudez striking is a bit underrated as well. He's not the most technical but he has some power. He Knocked Davey Grant Down before putting him Out Cold with his signature Triangle Choke.

Submission come fra standing guillotine, after several unsuccessful attempt of getting Morales down. Impressive adaption off course. He did touch grant, thats through, but that doesnt change the fact that he gets tagged a total of 3 times within a very short time frame in both fights, but im not disagreeing with you, his hands does look decent, so i guess hes not bad. He can easily have been a bit sloppy. Sometimes i think that when youre not settling into a fight, one can be a bit sloppy, it can happen to anyone, it doesnt mean hes bad,

[Shagdogy]

Submission come fra standing guillotine, after several unsuccessful attempt of getting Morales down. Impressive adaption off course. He did touch grant, thats through, but that doesnt change the fact that he gets tagged a total of 3 times within a very short time frame in both fights, but im not disagreeing with you, his hands does look decent, so i guess hes not bad. He can easily have been a bit sloppy. Sometimes i think that when youre not settling into a fight, one can be a bit sloppy, it can happen to anyone, it doesnt mean hes bad,

I’ve been waiting to fade him against a long striker who can keep it on the feet but then he came out vs Grant and striking looked improved so I donno. As for “value” though someone said there’s tons of value on Bermudez? At -240 I don’t see it. Does Bermudez win well over 70%? Nah.

[bjpenn85]

I’ve been waiting to fade him against a long striker who can keep it on the feet but then he came out vs Grant and striking looked improved so I donno. As for “value” though someone said there’s tons of value on Bermudez? At -240 I don’t see it. Does Bermudez win well over 70%? Nah.

Agreed, no value.

[bjpenn85]

Bermudez submission at +170-+200 range is value...-240 not so much.

[PaperTrail07]

Exactly.....and unlike some fighters.....he does NOT miss out on position when it presents itself....you make a mistake.....you pay for it...I just don't see Benito really owning any part of this fight, MB's skills are so so ahead of Benito's.....

I wouldn't say he struggled with Morales. Was attempting dangerous subs all fight until he finished him in R2. I think Bermudez striking is a bit underrated as well. He's not the most technical but he has some power. He Knocked Davey Grant Down before putting him Out Cold with his signature Triangle Choke.

[PaperTrail07]

Interested to Watch Kron and Leeroy as well......

[bjpenn85]

Exactly.....and unlike some fighters.....he does NOT miss out on position when it presents itself....you make a mistake.....you pay for it...I just don't see Benito really owning any part of this fight, MB's skills are so so ahead of Benito's.....

I re-watched Morales- Bermudez, i am in a disagreement with myself here. I dont think its possible for Lopez to avoid the ground game during those 15 minutes, much like the Oliveira vs David Teymur. Bermudez def is too savy here i think. He actually dominated Morales for more or less the first 5 minutes which i didnt remember.

[Dim mak]

I just refuse to accept Cain has fallen off enough to not win here. I expect to see Francis gas.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I just refuse to accept Cain has fallen off enough to not win here. I expect to see Francis gas.

I think Cain is definitely the more skilled fighter and he has a big cardio advantage. However, Ngannou is an absolute beast in Round 1 and facing a power puncher like that is not the welcome that you want after multiple years off. Cain hasn’t had a solid win for over five years (a bum like Travis Browne isn’t a solid win). I think Ngannou puts him in the fire early and gets him out of there. If it hits R2, Cain’s chances of winning increase significantly.