UFC on ESPN+ 2: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 (February 02, 2019)

[bjpenn85]

On the flip side, i can see what you mean by how she is taking steps back. Its def a bad habit. Damn. Looking at the tape again, she isnt that fck active either. Maybe i was a tad bit to fast to conclude. Maybe its closer on the feet than i originally thought.

[Thor4140]

i really dont understand why Aldo has gotten away from his kicking game... its literally his best weapon and i feel like the first Holloway fight he wouldve had a real shot to win if he threw some kicks... Seems like he struggles a bit with longer opponents though and Moicano is huge for the weight.. gonna be an interesting fight for sure

I thought the kicking game vanished because guys like Frankie and Mendes were trying to time him and he basically said he can see these guys want to take him down. Than he fights Max and it is the same thing and Max isn’t trying to take anyone down from what i see. Who knows maybe his feet hurt of some shit but it is bizarre. I haven’t seen anyone outbox Moicano just yet so if Aldo wants to straight up box, like u said , i think the size is just to much.

[firekillex]

I thought the kicking game vanished because guys like Frankie and Mendes were trying to time him and he basically said he can see these guys want to take him down. Than he fights Max and it is the same thing and Max isn’t trying to take anyone down from what i see. Who knows maybe his feet hurt of some shit but it is bizarre. I haven’t seen anyone outbox Moicano just yet so if Aldo wants to straight up box, like u said , i think the size is just to much.

doesnt make any sense because Aldo has some of the best TDD in mma , his hip explosion is next level shittt
kinda wish he moved up to 155 like he has been talking about , the cut kills him and hes stil fighting bigger guys at 145

i could see this fight going either way though, only reason Holloway beat Aldo because he has a granite chin and huge output , lets see if Moicano can take his power shots, thats what this fight will come down to imo... and 3 rounds favors Aldo a lot more with his style

[turbozed]

On the flip side, i can see what you mean by how she is taking steps back. Its def a bad habit. Damn. Looking at the tape again, she isnt that fck active either. Maybe i was a tad bit to fast to conclude. Maybe its closer on the feet than i originally thought.

Yeah I actually did tape at first looking to bet Santos. Decided that there was no value in the price. It wasn't until rewatch that I noticed her bad habits and how Borella might capitalize. Also saw that she was only a bjj blue belt and didn't have much wrestling experience.

A lot of my most successful bets are when I come in leaning a certain way but tape makes me go the opposite way. One recent matchup I remember holding my nose and betting is Alvey/Prachnio. It's not 100% but +EV for sure.

[bjpenn85]

Yeah I actually did tape at first looking to bet Santos. Decided that there was no value in the price. It wasn't until rewatch that I noticed her bad habits and how Borella might capitalize. Also saw that she was only a bjj blue belt and didn't have much wrestling experience.

A lot of my most successful bets are when I come in leaning a certain way but tape makes me go the opposite way. One recent matchup I remember holding my nose and betting is Alvey/Prachnio. It's not 100% but +EV for sure.

i came in leaning Borello, and was surprised as Santos wasnt as bad as i expected, i think that played a trick on me. Then i re-watched and looked for faults, and she was less active than i first remembered, has some bad habits like you said, not angling off, and taking steps back in a straight line. Her boxing isnt that impressive either. Shes more athletic, but shes so at disadvatage experience wise. Ill say that Borellos loss in the UFC now is a strength at her age. While Santos had never had a loss against higher competition and is probably not making adjustments in her game. Grappling skills is more likely to go to Borello, while the ability to take the fight to the ground very much is an open question. But I dont think Santos can win by anything else than decision, Borella can win both dec and submission, so that isnt factored in, in the current line at +160. Therefor i will make a 180 and bet Borello. I agree, at last. Hopefully our theoretical advantage will play out in real life also.

[turbozed]

i came in leaning Borello, and was surprised as Santos wasnt as bad as i expected, i think that played a trick on me. Then i re-watched and looked for faults, and she was less active than i first remembered, has some bad habits like you said, not angling off, and taking steps back in a straight line. Her boxing isnt that impressive either. Shes more athletic, but shes so at disadvatage experience wise. Ill say that Borellos loss in the UFC now is a strength at her age. While Santos had never had a loss against higher competition and is probably not making adjustments in her game. Grappling skills is more likely to go to Borello, while the ability to take the fight to the ground very much is an open question. But I dont think Santos can win by anything else than decision, Borella can win both dec and submission, so that isnt factored in, in the current line at +160. Therefor i will make a 180 and bet Borello. I agree, at last. Hopefully our theoretical advantage will play out in real life also.

Alright just dont blame me if we lose lol. I'd be curious to see what the decision line for Taila is, since that seems like an obvious hedge, but I'm guessing it will be even odds at best. Another safe angle is to play Borella points spread +3.5 when it comes out, which should be -160 or so.

[bjpenn85]

Alright just dont blame me if we lose lol. I'd be curious to see what the decision line for Taila is, since that seems like an obvious hedge, but I'm guessing it will be even odds at best. Another safe angle is to play Borella points spread +3.5 when it comes out, which should be -160 or so.

I know the +3.5 could be golden her.

[Shagdogy]

I want to put a max bet in on Junior Albini and his diaper.

Yooooo are you serious, because call me crazy, but I think he wins this fight going away.

[Shagdogy]

I made a play on Mara Borella as the dog around +160. Think there's a good chance she outclasses Taila on the mat. Taila hasn't fought anywhere near the level of Borella whereas Borella overpowered a pretty strong Faria and was competitive striking with Chookagian. At the worst, I feel like it's a close decision.

I never do well going against you on the women, but I think it's pretty clear that Santos will not lose this fight on the feet. She is faster, more varied, and fights longer. The few times she got hit clean by Almeida her chin was up the task no problem. I agree that Borella might get top position and transition until she finds a sub, but it's pretty much an unknown area. We haven't seen Taila off her back but she did pretty well to get bodylock from behind, land the TD with a sneaky trip, and then lock up body triangle in her DWCS fight. She obviously isn't a total rookie on the mat. I think that's the only path Borella has to victory so I give her about a 30% chance to win this fight. I think the value is with Santos ML as a potential parlay piece.

[Shagdogy]

The lines that interest me are Maia, Teymur, Ramos, and Aldo. Maia and Teymur for sure. Good likes to grapple from what I've read, and I believe this is a stepdown in competition for Maia. I also think Teymur can stuff those takedowns and keep it standing. This would be doom for Oliveira. I want to believe in Aldo but can't quite pull the trigger yet.

What fool in their right mind would willingly choose to grapple with Maia?

[Shagdogy]

Alright just dont blame me if we lose lol. I'd be curious to see what the decision line for Taila is, since that seems like an obvious hedge, but I'm guessing it will be even odds at best. Another safe angle is to play Borella points spread +3.5 when it comes out, which should be -160 or so.

Read your breakdown just now and I disagree that she has a bad habit of backing up to the cage. I felt that she did a decent enough job striking when retreating and also circling out before getting pinned on the cage more often than not. There were very few clinch tie ups on the cage in that fight vs. Almeida. I also really don't like Borella's entrances. I think they're slow and lack setup. With decent footwork she's not hard to avoid, as we saw vs. Chook where Chook was able to move away from almost all clinch attempts. Borella is real good when she gets the deep bodylock with outside trip but I don't feel confident about her closing the distance effectively. We'll see.

[Thor4140]

doesnt make any sense because Aldo has some of the best TDD in mma , his hip explosion is next level shittt
kinda wish he moved up to 155 like he has been talking about , the cut kills him and hes stil fighting bigger guys at 145

i could see this fight going either way though, only reason Holloway beat Aldo because he has a granite chin and huge output , lets see if Moicano can take his power shots, thats what this fight will come down to imo... and 3 rounds favors Aldo a lot more with his style

Yeah i never saw anyone hold Aldo down when he comes in shape. Miuight be the hardest guy i ever saw be kept down. If i was a fighter i wouldn’t even try to take him down till the third or fourth round. Just a bunch of feints to keep him guessing. Taking him down early will gas you out more than him.

[turbozed]

Read your breakdown just now and I disagree that she has a bad habit of backing up to the cage. I felt that she did a decent enough job striking when retreating and also circling out before getting pinned on the cage more often than not. There were very few clinch tie ups on the cage in that fight vs. Almeida. I also really don't like Borella's entrances. I think they're slow and lack setup. With decent footwork she's not hard to avoid, as we saw vs. Chook where Chook was able to move away from almost all clinch attempts. Borella is real good when she gets the deep bodylock with outside trip but I don't feel confident about her closing the distance effectively. We'll see.

Chookagian's lateral movement is a lot better than Santos to my eyes. Santos moves like I do when sparring, just backwards. It's easy to look good against a girl like Almeida who is a predictable brawler. Even then, she hit Santos a few times rushing straight forward with zero set up.

I watched Almeida fight Ketlen and she atttempted 0 takedowns, also her lack of drive on TDs on Santos makes me think that her wrestling is garbage. She still got very deep on her TD shots on Santos both times. I don't think Santos can just push Borella's head down and step backwards if Borella gets her hands on her. Borella goes for bodylock takedowns and they are strong enough with continuous drive to get very strong girls like Faria down. Santos didn't get her hips low initially and relied on shifting her hips back. This is okay to defend an initial drive, but would be a problem if a girl constantly drives forward. IMO, she'll have to lower her stance and stay more disciplined to avoid a Borella TDD.

[Shagdogy]

Chookagian's lateral movement is a lot better than Santos to my eyes. Santos moves like I do when sparring, just backwards. It's easy to look good against a girl like Almeida who is a predictable brawler. Even then, she hit Santos a few times rushing straight forward with zero set up.

I watched Almeida fight Ketlen and she atttempted 0 takedowns, also her lack of drive on TDs on Santos makes me think that her wrestling is garbage. She still got very deep on her TD shots on Santos both times. I don't think Santos can just push Borella's head down and step backwards if Borella gets her hands on her. Borella goes for bodylock takedowns and they are strong enough with continuous drive to get very strong girls like Faria down. Santos didn't get her hips low initially and relied on shifting her hips back. This is okay to defend an initial drive, but would be a problem if a girl constantly drives forward. IMO, she'll have to lower her stance and stay more disciplined to avoid a Borella TDD.

Lower her stance, I agree. But priority should come even before that to circle away from the cage and not allow Borella to get into the clinch at all. I don't worry too much about Almeida getting in deep on a single leg because Borella almost never shoots singles or doubles. She enters up high and looks for clinch/bodylock outside trip. I don't doubt if she gets in deep on the bodylock that Santos will hit the mat, but once there I really don't know what will happen. I don't hate the play on Borella. It's really all guesswork as to exactly how the clinch entrance attempts and ground game will go if it happens. I do feel confident though that if the fight's on the feet that Santos will have a very clear edge. I have no play on this fight as of now unless I really want to play parlay, then I'll consider Santos for it.

I do so far have plays on Albini and Good. Some might think I'm crazy but I feel preeeetty confident in Albini.

[Pinoy-T-X]

I believe a lot of dogs will be barking on this fight card.

[turbozed]

Lower her stance, I agree. But priority should come even before that to circle away from the cage and not allow Borella to get into the clinch at all. I don't worry too much about Almeida getting in deep on a single leg because Borella almost never shoots singles or doubles. She enters up high and looks for clinch/bodylock outside trip. I don't doubt if she gets in deep on the bodylock that Santos will hit the mat, but once there I really don't know what will happen. I don't hate the play on Borella. It's really all guesswork as to exactly how the clinch entrance attempts and ground game will go if it happens. I do feel confident though that if the fight's on the feet that Santos will have a very clear edge. I have no play on this fight as of now unless I really want to play parlay, then I'll consider Santos for it.

I do so far have plays on Albini and Good. Some might think I'm crazy but I feel preeeetty confident in Albini.

Yeah I don't see Borella shooting singles or doubles in open space either. I think she probably tries to work Santos to the fence and try for TDs in the clinch. Borella is a judo black belt (and apparently a better judo black belt than Dudieva) so I think she'll have a pretty big advantage there. Santos has a good muay thai clinch and knows how to frame well, which helped her fight off Almeida. But giving up underhooks to a Borella against the cage would be unwise.

I aslo agree that Santos should have a significant advantage on the feet. Borella's striking has improved a ton at ATT (compare her Dudieva fight to 2nd round of Chookagian fight). I'm hoping that Borella will continue to improve at a top camp and fighting the top 125ers in the UFC. The striking doesn't have to be good enough for Borella to win a pure kickboxing match, but enough to threaten and let her work a full MMA game.

Santos hasn't really needed to improve her skills much because she's fighting absolute bottom of the barrel competition. Santos may have the skills to fight off grapplers like Borella, but we can only guess about that. What we can say for sure is she hasn't had to do it in a fight against this level of competition. If I were going to back Santos as a favorite, I'd like to see her face some adversity and get through it. You wouldn't want to lay juice on a girl who faces her first real test in her UFC debut.

[bjpenn85]

good conversation, gentlemans!

Ill say. I have put Kyong ho Kang in a bunch of parlays. Ishiara has lost 5/6 matches or something like that, while Kang nearly beat Ricardo Ramos, huge skill disparity @ 1.27. That line will not hold up much longer. Gift line.

[bjpenn85]

I also see some value in Montana del la rosa @ 1.42, sucks that it once was 1.8/-120 but what can you do. Kasseem her opponent has 5-0 record, very inexperienced and striking looking like amateurs do at an ordinary boxing gym. Not athletic. Just basically looks very inexperienced and have no reason to be in the ufc. Kassem fought a pretty close fight with alex chambers. First round was lost, second round was debatable, but she got taken down but was more active from the bottom. 3.round also got taken down for longer periods but was more active and reversed the action, won the striking and looked better. But part from that she has met nobody at the regional scene. only people with loosing record. Montana del la rosa has at least a quick submission win where she displayed very good bjj, has fought and beat ostovish standing and on the ground. She is a 3 or 4 times all american, but her takedowns in open space are still not great. But in clinch and in scrambles shes quite good. I struggle to understand how this line originally was set at -120, public surely exposed Kalikas here. But i still find value here at current line.

[turbozed]

Bj: kalikas no longer releases openers for 5dimes and it shows imo. What 5d does now is throw out a line and have flagged sharp accounts move the line at super low limits (we're talking $20-$50 here) to a reasonable accurate price.

Less than $100 in action was probably bet on Montana at -120, so I'd just disregard those numbers.

[bjpenn85]

Bj: kalikas no longer releases openers for 5dimes and it shows imo. What 5d does now is throw out a line and have flagged sharp accounts move the line at super low limits (we're talking $20-$50 here) to a reasonable accurate price.

Less than $100 in action was probably bet on Montana at -120, so I'd just disregard those numbers.

Lol. Thanks bud. Btw what a sucker move, by all means, quite an effective strategy.

[Shagdogy]

Just been diving into Hernandez vs Perez and I feel like that’s pretty close to a 50/50 fight. Hernandez is not at all positionally dominant but he works a high pace and doesn’t hesitate in scrambles which makes him tough to deal with, but Perez is also a pretty solid scrambler with good counter wrestling. I don’t think he’ll be physically outmatched here as he has been against Anders and Sanchez.

Also to note, Perez has never lost in Brazil, and Hernandez has never fought outside the US and has only even fought away from the west coast one time. Plus money for Perez holds some value I think.

[bjpenn85]

Just been diving into Hernandez vs Perez and I feel like that’s pretty close to a 50/50 fight. Hernandez is not at all positionally dominant but he works a high pace and doesn’t hesitate in scrambles which makes him tough to deal with, but Perez is also a pretty solid scrambler with good counter wrestling. I don’t think he’ll be physically outmatched here as he has been against Anders and Sanchez.


Also to note, Perez has never lost in Brazil, and Hernandez has never fought outside the US and has only even fought away from the west coast one time. Plus money for Perez holds some value I think.

Thanks for heads up! I will check later and come back with my viewpoints!

[Shagdogy]

Thanks for heads up! I will check later and come back with my viewpoints!

You will want to watch Hernandez’s fight with Allen. You can find it linked at newsomemma.co.uk -> betting services -> tape index.

[bjpenn85]

You will want to watch Hernandez’s fight with Allen. You can find it linked at newsomemma.co.uk -> betting services -> tape index.

I use fightpass library to cap fights! Think it cost 7 dollars these days.

[Shagdogy]

I use fightpass library to cap fights! Think it cost 7 dollars these days.

Hernandez vs Allen is an LFA fight. You won’t find it on FightPass.

[Wohlford]

Bj: kalikas no longer releases openers for 5dimes and it shows imo. What 5d does now is throw out a line and have flagged sharp accounts move the line at super low limits (we're talking $20-$50 here) to a reasonable accurate price.

Less than $100 in action was probably bet on Montana at -120, so I'd just disregard those numbers.

That was the standard practice during the Kalikas era too.

[bjpenn85]

You will want to watch Hernandez’s fight with Allen. You can find it linked at newsomemma.co.uk -> betting services -> tape index.

Great!!

[UncleChael]

I'll go out on a limb and stay that Moraes is the best striker in the division.. so don't blink. Tell em Uncle Chael sent ya.

[bjpenn85]

Great!!

Watched Hernandez/perez, i think perez is pretty good. He is unproffesional imo, but hes athletic, and calm and fairly well rounded. But hees to chilled out and too calm. He also has bad cardio, hes done in the middle of round 2. He will loose round 3, so he needs to win the first two i believe. It can be a very close fight and hernandez gives up positions all the time, which means Perez can sink in that sub. +160 perez holds value, but this is the lower range of what im betting. Im not stoked, but i agree with you, its quite close and the fight is 50/50 with both fighters have upsides and downsides.

[bjpenn85]

You will want to watch Hernandez’s fight with Allen. You can find it linked at newsomemma.co.uk -> betting services -> tape index.

Watched Hernandez/perez, i think perez is pretty good. He is unproffesional imo, but hes athletic, and calm and fairly well rounded. But hees to chilled out and too calm. He also has bad cardio, hes done in the middle of round 2. He will loose round 3, so he needs to win the first two i believe. It can be a very close fight. What i dont like if i was a Hernandez bettor is that hernandez gives up positions all the time, which means Perez can sink in that sub. +160 on perez holds value, but this is the lower range of underdog bets imo. Im not stoked, but i agree with you, its quite close and the fight is 50/50 with both fighters have upsides and downsides.

[turbozed]

Lower her stance, I agree. But priority should come even before that to circle away from the cage and not allow Borella to get into the clinch at all. I don't worry too much about Almeida getting in deep on a single leg because Borella almost never shoots singles or doubles. She enters up high and looks for clinch/bodylock outside trip. I don't doubt if she gets in deep on the bodylock that Santos will hit the mat, but once there I really don't know what will happen. I don't hate the play on Borella. It's really all guesswork as to exactly how the clinch entrance attempts and ground game will go if it happens. I do feel confident though that if the fight's on the feet that Santos will have a very clear edge. I have no play on this fight as of now unless I really want to play parlay, then I'll consider Santos for it.

I do so far have plays on Albini and Good. Some might think I'm crazy but I feel preeeetty confident in Albini.

I just taped this and I think I'm on board with Albini too. Albini SUB opened at +900 which was crazy. I think an easy hedge is Jairzinho Rd1. He seemd to have lost all of his power after grappling Kovalev for a bit, who really could've just taken down him down in the 1st to win that fight easily. Cardio will be a bigger issue on short notice and if Albini grinds him against the cage or gets a TD in the first. I'd be bigger on Albini if he actually tried to grapple anytime within the past couple of years, but I'm confident enough that his ATT camp will make the most of his BJJ brown belt against what looks like a pure kickboxer with no ground game. Jairzinho got a yellow card in his RIZIN for greasing which, shows how confident the guy is in grappling. Albini should be competitive on the feet if he's dumb enough to keep it there, and has never been KO'd. But those counter hook bombs that Jairzinho throws puts anyone out if it lands clean.

Anything else to add Shag? And how big you going?

[bjpenn85]

I think that, if assuncaos winning, hes winning a close split dec victory, that sits at +800. Worth a stab.

[bjpenn85]

Ramos and nurma should also go the distance, hedge doesnt start round 2 is pretty safe at +420.

[Thrilla]

*buy

There is an edit post option.

[Shagdogy]

I just taped this and I think I'm on board with Albini too. Albini SUB opened at +900 which was crazy. I think an easy hedge is Jairzinho Rd1. He seemd to have lost all of his power after grappling Kovalev for a bit, who really could've just taken down him down in the 1st to win that fight easily. Cardio will be a bigger issue on short notice and if Albini grinds him against the cage or gets a TD in the first. I'd be bigger on Albini if he actually tried to grapple anytime within the past couple of years, but I'm confident enough that his ATT camp will make the most of his BJJ brown belt against what looks like a pure kickboxer with no ground game. Jairzinho got a yellow card in his RIZIN for greasing which, shows how confident the guy is in grappling. Albini should be competitive on the feet if he's dumb enough to keep it there, and has never been KO'd. But those counter hook bombs that Jairzinho throws puts anyone out if it lands clean.

Anything else to add Shag? And how big you going?

I see it the same as you, except outside of a one punch KO I think Albini could win in the stand up with superior volume and just touching up Roz over time. IMO those counter hook bombs are very easy to see coming, and aren't all that fast. Roz has been hittable right down the middle and Albini throws decent variety and volume in the standup, and is quite fluid. Like you said, Roz round 1 is a solid hedge. As of right now I have 3u on Albini at -105 and I'm considering more. I never thought I'd max bet a grown man in a diaper but it's not often you get a guy who wins a fight everywhere except 1 punch KO (and has never been KO'd) for -112. I think Albini wins this fight at least 75% of the time.

I haven't seen Roz's two fights in Russia way back in 2012, but I'm pretty sure he hasn't even fought in a cage in at least the past 6 years. His last 4 were all in a ring. Another wrinkle. Even if Albini doesn't take the fight to the mat he could grind away on the cage. I saw that yellow card for greasing too, LOL, and that was just in May. Odds give Albini a 53% chance of winning and I have him at 75%. Quite a bit of value if we're right.