Vitucci FSP Bet Thread

[Richard Clock]

Two more bets in and likely more to come. O'Malley by sub prop may be a crowning achievement for me; I have a really good feeling about it. O'Malley has shown some craft against Kthashakyan and Ware with trip takedowns, and seems to be willing and aggressive in throwing up submissions whenever he finds himself on the ground. He even threw up a flying triangle against Ware that was a decent enough attempt. This is a fight that has every making of a brawl, which is why it would be fitting if we see these dudes hitting the mat eventually. O'Malley may be wary of Souk's heavy counter punching after a few early exchanges, and Souk has shown some vulnerability as an average to below average grappler. It should be mentioned that Souk faded a bit in the third round of his fights with Morales and Perez due to his aggressive brawling style, so a lazy takedown can leave Souk open to getting choked out in the 3rd round. O'Malley himself says his wrestling/grappling is underrated, and I tend to believe him. Obviously, this is a smaller bet (0.35u), but one I think is worth a shot at rather than pulling my hair out trying to predict the winner at pick em' odds.
I believe in Munhoz's talent and development as an elite technician in the BW division. He combines an ox-strong and technically proficient grappling game with an improving and increasingly effective striking game. He is younger, has less fights, and has taken less damage in his career than Dodson (who has 3 tough 5-round fights against Linkeker and Mighty Mouse under his belt). Dodson certainly has good technique, but it his elite athleticism/explosiveness/punching power that truly makes him a very tough test for the elite BMs. However, there is a point when at least a percentage of that explosiveness starts to wane at age 33. Combine that possibility with Munhoz being a decent-sized underdog, and I think the value is there enough for a 1 unit bet.

RE: The O'Malley bet: penetrate penetrate penetrate penetrate penetrate

[Richard Clock]

Adding this one just for the action:

Cyborg by sub at +750: risk 15... A submission win for a more than 10 to 1 favorite shouldn't be out of the question. Hoping for a knockdown + sub or takedown + sub.

[Richard Clock]

Will have to look over my spreadsheet tomorrow, but it appears that I took a less than a unit hit for this weekend. A dog hit of Kristina Williams at +265 on the Friday Bellator card kept me afloat. Split decision loss to Munhoz sucked, but the near O'Malley sub win was truly tilting. I think my research and process was generally good, just wish I showed a little more discretion with my bets.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Will have to look over my spreadsheet tomorrow, but it appears that I took a less than a unit hit for this weekend. A dog hit of Kristina Williams at +265 on the Friday Bellator card kept me afloat. Split decision loss to Munhoz sucked, but the near O'Malley sub win was truly tilting. I think my research and process was generally good, just wish I showed a little more discretion with my bets.

Would you mind showing the math on that?

[Richard Clock]

Would you mind showing the math on that?

To clarify the bold, I lost less than 1 unit ($46.75), as a 1 unit betting size is now $50 for me.

[Richard Clock]

In review:

- The Johnson ITD and Cyborg by sub bets in particular were ill-advised and rushed plays in an attempt to get more action. I think I got caught up in the big event and already having a lot of money riding on this card than I have had previously. Alcohol probably didn't help with the Cyborg bet. No excuses, this was a poor display of discipline on these particular bets, and I need to trim this fat in future event if I want to remain profitable. Still, I got solid historical prices on both bets, if there is a silver lining.

- The Dollaway bet was unfortunate because I had a strong lean on CB winning, especially if he survived the first, but missed out on the ML at dog odds. The by submission prop jumped up to +955 near closing. A victim of time and circumstance here, not a bet I regret all that much. If there is one thing I am very happy with this event was almost unanimously getting good historical prices.

- Zingano bet was one I would like back. The line movement toward the +200s dictated action for me despite me having real concerns about Cat's striking, decision-making, and BJJ off her back. Ultimately, the line movement was alluring, but maybe should have scaled back this bet in terms of sizing or stayed away entirely after getting some second thought about Cat's chances.

- The reasons why I am not too upset with the night I had was that Munhoz was a decent enough value call in what was ultimately a close split decision at +155 odds, and O'Malley came very close to the long shot submission off his back, and then by guillotine. The O'Malley bet was the bet I felt best about from a value perspective on this card, and it ended by being the most +EV play in hindsight. Hitting one or both bets would have put me in a little/a lot in the green for this weekend.

Ultimately, I need to slightly sharpen my handicapping and cut out on bad habits if I am serious about profiting long term. Still, I generally felt good about my bets and am happy with the prices I got them at.

[HurlSweatPants]

That O Malley sub would have been nice, I thought once he adjusted the triangle it was a wrap.

You'll get it back on the Werdum card, look forward to your picks and insight.

[turbozed]

It's a great idea to put down your thoughts in writing before an event and to do post-event analysis. A big part of betting to understand your own thought processes and to stay disciplined.

I also like the idea of trying to find value by going against popular narratives. A large amount of people bet MMA not because of technical analysis on fighters' paths to victory, but sometimes mostly on the narratives. E.g. Cowboy as a shot fighter, Alvey incapable of throwing anymore, TAM Sage being a totally new fighter. The narratives are so strong that they overpower obvious things like Cowboy having technical advantages all around and Alvey being able to handle wild aggressive strikers that come to him. By looking past these narratives we get some pretty good value.

[Richard Clock]

That O Malley sub would have been nice, I thought once he adjusted the triangle it was a wrap.

You'll get it back on the Werdum card, look forward to your picks and insight.

That was such a tilting moment, it was a multi-unit swing. It looked sunked in, O'Malley has some grappling chops! I admit that I tried to chase a little with a small long shot on Cyborg, which probably didn't have value.

I hope you had a better night, and I always appreciate your occassional post on the thread. Nothing really stands out from the available lines for the next event, but I'm sure I will find something once I start digging into the card

[Richard Clock]

It's a great idea to put down your thoughts in writing before an event and to do post-event analysis. A big part of betting to understand your own thought processes and to stay disciplined.

I also like the idea of trying to find value by going against popular narratives. A large amount of people bet MMA not because of technical analysis on fighters' paths to victory, but sometimes mostly on the narratives. E.g. Cowboy as a shot fighter, Alvey incapable of throwing anymore, TAM Sage being a totally new fighter. The narratives are so strong that they overpower obvious things like Cowboy having technical advantages all around and Alvey being able to handle wild aggressive strikers that come to him. By looking past these narratives we get some pretty good value.

Appreciate the kind words, I think looking back on what went wrong with a card is useful. Every fights has its own unique set of circumstances to consider, but I tend to think there are general tendencies/bad habits that one can fall victim to and impact profitability from one event to the next. In my case, being willing to lay off a play after discovering some red flags during research is crucial. Now that I have increased my betting units and I have a little more riding on each bet, I am hoping I can show even more discipline and discretion.

[HurlSweatPants]

Great point Turbo, keeping a manifesto of sorts has helped me immensely. I stayed away from and Dern and Dariush bets, the old me would have most likely parlayed or prop bet those fights, but I couldn't justify the price on a fighter who has a very limited striking game and a guy who had virtually no tape. There was a lot of noise considering Hernandez had limited film, and the fact that both were making debuts helped me steer clear.

RC- went 1-2 on a weird night, but lost a very small amount. Won O Malley goes 3rds at plus money, but I was completely off on my analysis, thought the only way it would end ITD is by a Souk bomb w the outside chance of an O Malley sub. We both saw how it played out, O Malley had him rocked in the 1st on the feet and had him in deep water on the ground, really could have been finished multiple times. If Souk had any fight IQ he could have won ITD, but thankfully for me he did not.
Lost on both Caraway by dec and caraway straight, felt really good about both and the first round was how I thought the fight would play out. I thought Caraway regressed in his stand up and didn't show the same savvy after the first round. Disappointed by the dec. but I was so off on the O Malley that is was justified, and both were my 1 unit bets. I could have easily went 3-0 or 0-3, so I am just thankful I won my 3 unit at plus money and avoided any other damage. I was close to pulling the trigger on Lombard ITD but couldn't get the value that I wanted, that would have been a killer beat.

[Richard Clock]

Great point Turbo, keeping a manifesto of sorts has helped me immensely. I stayed away from and Dern and Dariush bets, the old me would have most likely parlayed or prop bet those fights, but I couldn't justify the price on a fighter who has a very limited striking game and a guy who had virtually no tape. There was a lot of noise considering Hernandez had limited film, and the fact that both were making debuts helped me steer clear.

Laying off those chalky plays really makes such a difference in your bottom line. I sound like a broken record in the event threads, but one of the first things I learned from posting on this forum was that throwing a bad play in a parlay doesn't magically make it a justifiable play. Parlays aren't magic. Don't get me started on props. Edgar NOT by decision may have been my best value play on the last card because Edgar by decision prop was bet up so highly by people who were convinced that outcome was a foregone conclusion. Predicting who wins a fight is hard enough, trying to predict the exact outcome of a fight and exactly how a fight will play out is where you really can get into trouble.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Laying off those chalky plays really makes such a difference in your bottom line. I sound like a broken record in the event threads, but one of the first things I learned from posting on this forum was that throwing a bad play in a parlay doesn't magically make it a justifiable play. Parlays aren't magic. Don't get me started on props. Edgar NOT by decision may have been my best value play on the last card because Edgar by decision prop was bet up so highly by people who were convinced that outcome was a foregone conclusion. Predicting who wins a fight is hard enough, trying to predict the exact outcome of a fight and exactly how a fight will play out is where you really can get into trouble.

Unless you're me . Different styles work for different people.

[Richard Clock]

And if we are on this subject and since this is my penetrating thread, I would like to rant about another pet peeve of mine: hedging. A lot of people hedge on here, however most cappers (besides Hugo and a select others) do it incorrectly. I have seen some posters just bet on the two most obvious, most likely outcomes (edgar by decision and ortega by submission, for example), thinking they are reducing risk. What they are really doing, however, is just taking two -EV plays and pairing them together. If you think one certain outcome or play has value, just place action on that play only, and be willing to eat it if you loss, knowing that the value was there and the play was justified. What a sharp capper like Hugo does, which is one the reasons for his longer-term profitability, is that he pairs two props, both of which are at very good historical prices and which BOTH have value.

A good example is Lombard vs Dollaway, where I saw the default play as "Lombard wins in 1st round" or Lombard by KO/TKO hedged with Dollaway by decision. Lombard winning in the early rounds by KO/TKO was an obvious outcome/possibility and ultimately a square play: the linesmakers knew this, the betting public knew this, and this likeliness was baked into the line already. There is just minimal value in that play. If you believe Dollaway moneyline had value, then make a straight play on that without a hedge, otherwise in this case you are just pairing an inherently -EV, square play (like Lombard by KO) with a presumably +EV play.

[Richard Clock]

Unless you're me . Different styles work for different people.

You got a little too eager there, Hugo. Don't worry, I gave you your just props ^

[Hugo de Naranja]

You got a little too eager there, Hugo. Don't worry, I gave you your just props ^

That you did.

[HurlSweatPants]

A good example is Lombard vs Dollaway, where I saw the default play as "Lombard wins in 1st round" or Lombard by KO/TKO hedged with Dollaway by decision. Lombard winning in the early rounds by KO/TKO was an obvious outcome/possibility and ultimately a square play: the linesmakers knew this, the betting public knew this, and this likeliness was baked into the line already. There is just minimal value in that play. If you believe Dollaway moneyline had value, then make a straight play on that without a hedge, otherwise in this case you are just pairing an inherently -EV, square play (like Lombard by KO) with a presumably +EV play.[/QUOTE]
I agree with your assessment on hedging, and I am not sure what the KO price was at the close of the Lombard fight, but I know that Lombard ITD was around +170 I believe.

That is what is great about this forum, everyone has a different style or specialty (I prefer fight handicap points) that they have pretty much proven to be successful. In saying that, no matter how you do it, if you cannot hedge correctly you are generally just throwing your money away on parallel odds.

[Richard Clock]

A good example is Lombard vs Dollaway, where I saw the default play as "Lombard wins in 1st round" or Lombard by KO/TKO hedged with Dollaway by decision. Lombard winning in the early rounds by KO/TKO was an obvious outcome/possibility and ultimately a square play: the linesmakers knew this, the betting public knew this, and this likeliness was baked into the line already. There is just minimal value in that play. If you believe Dollaway moneyline had value, then make a straight play on that without a hedge, otherwise in this case you are just pairing an inherently -EV, square play (like Lombard by KO) with a presumably +EV play.

I agree with your assessment on hedging, and I am not sure what the KO price was at the close of the Lombard fight, but I know that Lombard ITD was around +170 I believe.

That is what is great about this forum, everyone has a different style or specialty (I prefer fight handicap points) that they have pretty much proven to be successful. In saying that, no matter how you do it, if you cannot hedge correctly you are generally just throwing your money away on parallel odds.[/QUOTE]
Yes, I think there is a large enough margin for error in MMA gambling, where you can get away with these -EV tendencies and still be profitable. I am just pointing out a trend that irks me and has been common since I started posting on this forum back in college.

The week off from UFC fights gives me a little more time to get in some research in anticipation of the remaining lines for Werdum/Volkoc card to be released. Since I started gambling again on MMA, I haven't had the time to get good research in before the lines are released, so we will see this will enable me to jump on good opening prices and extract some value. Already finished capping Steven Ray/Kajan and am very intrigued how that line will open.

[Shagdogy]

Just to bring this whole discussion together... keeping historical record and reflecting back on my plays has helped me big time. I started a thread at the end of the year with a full breakdown of all my bets by type and size and it really helped me adjust going forward.

On that note, I've learned that I don't do well with props and hedges. I've cut those out almost entirely so far this year, I've adjusted my plays to fit within my areas of success, and even though I probably haven't been quite as "on" with my capping so far in 2018, I'm winning at a better rate so far.

[Richard Clock]

Just to bring this whole discussion together... keeping historical record and reflecting back on my plays has helped me big time. I started a thread at the end of the year with a full breakdown of all my bets by type and size and it really helped me adjust going forward.

On that note, I've learned that I don't do well with props and hedges. I've cut those out almost entirely so far this year, I've adjusted my plays to fit within my areas of success, and even though I probably haven't been quite as "on" with my capping so far in 2018, I'm winning at a better rate so far.

The tricky thing about props, especially the long shot ones, is that it is difficult to judge, sometimes even in hindsight, whether the prop had value. We are dealing with lower probability outcomes and don't have the ability to simulate the fight over 100 or 1000 times. What intrigues me about props, especially the long shot ones, is that the price changes are much more stark than the ML, so it seems at least anecdotally, there is more of an opportunity to hunt for value. I bet O'Malley by sub at +1422 and the line managed to move to +700s towards closing. As long as discretion is used, and you are not just laying a quarter of a unit on any prop that looks good, I think there is money and value to be had. My betting tracker spreadsheet can filter out those bets that are MMA props, so we will see over time if they are profitable.

[Richard Clock]

First bet of this card. Was wavering between Godbeer by decision, this bet, and fight goes the distance. I think all of those bets have some value, but I think the specific outcome of Sos ITD is the most overstated, and I like the extra security of multiple outcomes winning me this bet. It seems as though, based on the opening ITD odds and the general consensus I get from bettors, is that Sos taking Godbeer down and finishing him is a foregone conclusion. I generally came away lukewarm about Sos as a prospect after watching his last 3 fights. With the exception of Aleksander Emel (and even he has his clear limitations), the fighters Sos has faced are pretty unanimously scrubs: quite limited athletically and technically. Sos is clearly a physical force, but in order to consistently beat competent UFC HWs like Godbeer, it will take a lot more craft and much less brute force than what he has shown. His approach is very much like a bull-in-china shop: putting his head down and grabbing a hold of his opponent, getting a takedown and using brute force to get to top position. Godbeer is clearly limited in his own right, specifically in his lack of athleticism and TDD. However, he has shown an ability to at least compete, and in some cases decisively beat, other UFC heavyweights. Also, he is very clearly the more technical striker than SOS, and I have been delightfully surprised with Godbeer's defensive BJJ off his back, specifically his ability not to take too much damage and get back to his feet reasonably quickly. I especially question Sos' cardio and durability if Godbeer survives the first round. I think Sos likelihood of getting a finish significantly diminishes the longer this fight lasts. Sos does not have the fighting style and body type to stay fresh for multiple rounds. Godbeer has at least shown some toughness and durability, and should have his way with Sos in the later rounds with body punches and leg kicks.
The one trepidation I have with this bet is maybe I didn't get the best price historically, but it looks like the line has already moved a little to -132. I placed another bet yesterday that I will discuss tonight, as I break down the remaining fights.

[Hugo de Naranja]

First bet of this card. Was wavering between Godbeer by decision, this bet, and fight goes the distance. I think all of those bets have some value, but I think the specific outcome of Sos ITD is the most overstated, and I like the extra security of multiple outcomes winning me this bet. It seems as though, based on the opening ITD odds and the general consensus I get from bettors, is that Sos taking Godbeer down and finishing him is a foregone conclusion. I generally came away lukewarm about Sos as a prospect after watching his last 3 fights. With the exception of Aleksander Emel (and even he has his clear limitations), the fighters Sos has faced are pretty unanimously scrubs: quite limited athletically and technically. Sos is clearly a physical force, but in order to consistently beat competent UFC HWs like Godbeer, it will take a lot more craft and much less brute force than what he has shown. His approach is very much like a bull-in-china shop: putting his head down and grabbing a hold of his opponent, getting a takedown and using brute force to get to top position. Godbeer is clearly limited in his own right, specifically in his lack of athleticism and TDD. However, he has shown an ability to at least compete, and in some cases decisively beat, other UFC heavyweights. Also, he is very clearly the more technical striker than SOS, and I have been delightfully surprised with Godbeer's defensive BJJ off his back, specifically his ability not to take too much damage and get back to his feet reasonably quickly. I especially question Sos' cardio and durability if Godbeer survives the first round. I think Sos likelihood of getting a finish significantly diminishes the longer this fight lasts. Sos does not have the fighting style and body type to stay fresh for multiple rounds. Godbeer has at least shown some toughness and durability, and should have his way with Sos in the later rounds with body punches and leg kicks.
The one trepidation I have with this bet is maybe I didn't get the best price historically, but it looks like the line has already moved a little to -132. I placed another bet yesterday that I will discuss tonight, as I break down the remaining fights.

Just like Godbeer

[Richard Clock]

Just like Godbeer

I would argue that Godbeer is much better technically, in striking and also in BJJ off his back, than Sos' recent opponents.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I would argue that Godbeer is much better technically, in striking and also in BJJ off his back, than Sos' recent opponents.

We will find out shortly.

[Richard Clock]

All of my bets for this event so far.

I discussed Not Sos inside the distance above, and my fear that I got in on a poor price was justified, as this ine had moved all the way to slightly plus odds. Still, feeling fine about the bet and think the value is there.
- My initial lean was Dawodu to win by decision or maybe by TKO after doing research, but I was very surprised to see the ML line for both fighters as severe as it was. This was a case in which line movement and price dictated action for me. I think Henry is skilled and capable enough, especially as a grappler, to force this fight to the ground and wear out Dawodu, who has shown holes in his TDD in recent fights. Henry will have to employ this strategy early in the fight, as Dawodu's leg kicks and body punches should accumulate damage over time and sap the energy of Henry. Still, Henry showed impressive durability in his previous fight, and Dawodu may fade himself in later rounds carrying the weight of the larger Henry in grappling situations. I will not deny that Dawodu out-pointing Henry on the feet and warding off takedowns is still the likely outcome, but there is some margin for error here considering the +300 price. If the brown belt Henry can manage to get in top position whether by takedown against the cage, or in a scramble, I think a submission is well in play. I am happy with the price I got the submission prop in, as the line quickly moved down to the +800s, but that line has now interestingly shot back up to where I initially bet it. I was happy to get in on Danny Henry ML at +300 before the line moved down to in the lower +200 range.

- The Kajan/Ray matchup is another situation where I intiially had a lean on one side, and ended up taking the other side due to price. My initial lean was Ray due to superior standup technique and more success against higher strength of competition, but Kajan's mobility on the feet and superior grappling technique (another brown belt vs blue belt matchup) should keep this fight competitive. My initial bet was Kajan ITD at +540, as I thought his ML was undervalued and the chance of this fight ending ITD is undervalued. Specifically, both fighters have a solid win finish %, and both fighters have gotten finished at a high rate in losses. This led me to the bet of Kajan ITD at +544. The line has surprisingly shot up to +847. I will not deny that predicting line movement, especially in these prop bets, is something I need to work on. I added on more money on the FNTGD prop for the reason provided above combined with the fact that the FTG line has moved so severely since opening. The hope is Kajan gets a finish ITD, but a Ray ITD finish would put me at even for this fight.

Finally, Nasrat with the -3 1/2 handicap for the reasons provided in the vent thread. The line has since moved slightly to +135, but I feel good about Nasrat. I came away impressed by Nasrat against a very talented Held, and I think there is some recency bias coming into play with Nad, as Pimlett was a favorable stylistic matchup for Nad.

[Richard Clock]

^ I wish I had a little more time to more eloquently share my thoughts and rationale, still working through the main card fights.

Best of luck to everyone!

[Richard Clock]

Really annoyed by the result of the Sos/Godbeer fight. In hindsight, the Godbeer by decision prop when it was in the +800s was probably the best bet, but I still feel alright about the bet made. Sos sunk in the choke with about 40 seconds left in the 2nd round. I think Godbeer had a decent chance for a finish or the fight going the distance had the fight reached the 3rd round. Both guys were exhausted.
Still one bet left, but I think the biggest conclusion I am drawing from this card is that I need to show more discretion with prop bets and lean toward betting the ML, unless an opportunity really presents itself. My analysis of both fights, particularly that Godbeer/Sos and Kajan/Ray would be closer than the odds indicate, was accurate. I think I am getting a little too caught up in trying to predict the outcome as well, which is getting me into trouble.

[Richard Clock]

Danny henry at +300 ML and by sub at +1150 were huge hits that carried me over $101.50 profit, or a little more than 2 betting units, for the card. I'd like to think this was a little positive karma after O'Malley by sub at +1422 barely missed.

There were some other bets (Manuwa ML, Duquensoy -3 1/2, Volkov ML, Enkamp by sub/dec, some live plays) that were tempting, but I am ultimately glad I stayed disciplined and stuck to the fights and outcomes/prices that I was most comfortable putting action on. Trying to chase your bets by adding less confident bets during a card is tempting, but you are ultimately doing a huge disservice to your process/research and profitability by giving into this temptation. There are some facets of my handicapping (proper bet sizing, avoiding over-exposure on prop bets, predicting line movement) that needs some refining, but I think the core of my MMA handicapping - my research process used to assign win probabilities to each matchup, has been very sound. I think I will start getting into more of a groove in future events if I become more exposed on ML plays, and limit my exposure to those longer shot prop bets (Henry by sub, O'Malley by sub, etc.) in which I am more confident that the price is favorable. Obviously the latter is easier said than done, and will take more discipline and discretion to execute, but I at least acknowledge it is an issue that needs to be addressed.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Danny henry at +300 ML and by sub at +1150 were huge hits that carried me over $101.50 profit, or a little more than 2 betting units, for the card. I'd like to think this was a little positive karma after O'Malley by sub at +1422 barely missed.

There were some other bets (Manuwa ML, Duquensoy -3 1/2, Volkov ML, Enkamp by sub/dec, some live plays) that were tempting, but I am ultimately glad I stayed disciplined and stuck to the fights and outcomes/prices that I was most comfortable putting action on. Trying to chase your bets by adding less confident bets during a card is tempting, but you are ultimately doing a huge disservice to your process/research and profitability by giving into this temptation. There are some facets of my handicapping (proper bet sizing, avoiding over-exposure on prop bets, predicting line movement) that needs some refining, but I think the core of my MMA handicapping - my research process used to assign win probabilities to each matchup, has been very sound. I think I will start getting into more of a groove in future events if I become more exposed on ML plays, and limit my exposure to those longer shot prop bets (Henry by sub, O'Malley by sub, etc.) in which I am more confident that the price is favorable. Obviously the latter is easier said than done, and will take more discipline and discretion to execute, but I at least acknowledge it is an issue that needs to be addressed.

Nice win today. Props on those Henry bets. He really saved the day.

[Richard Clock]

Nice win today. Props on those Henry bets. He really saved the day.

Thanks, feels like I am barely keeping my head above water after the last two events. I am hoping the next few events are more convincingly profitable with the adjustments discussed above.

[HurlSweatPants]

Just started capping for the event, I'm a little late to the party. Interested to see how Kattar looks, he impressed the shit out of me last time. The line that I can't understand is the KK line. Feel like she should be more of a favorite, even in her wins I am not blown away by Herrig. KK was on the cusp of a title and I feel she is better all around, overwhelmingly on the feet.

Look forward to seeing your analysis, hope you continue to grind.

[Richard Clock]

Just started capping for the event, I'm a little late to the party. Interested to see how Kattar looks, he impressed the shit out of me last time. The line that I can't understand is the KK line. Feel like she should be more of a favorite, even in her wins I am not blown away by Herrig. KK was on the cusp of a title and I feel she is better all around, overwhelmingly on the feet.

Look forward to seeing your analysis, hope you continue to grind.

Thanks man, I have been busy between work, and I also starting doing so prep for MFL10 leagues in fantasy football. So far, only broke down Kattar/Moicano, Lobov/Caceres, OAM/Dunahm. So far, I have bets down on Holloway and OAM. I will provide screenshots and rationale on both bets during the weekend when I have more time. Most of my thoughts on Lobov/Caceres and OAM/Dunham are in the event thread. Turbozed was nice enough to share more of his thoughts on Lobov/Caceres in private chat, as I didn't want to clog the main thread with my ramblings. I tend to agree with Turbozed that Caceres ML has some value here, but I want to wait to see how this line moves before finalizing a bet there. Some of the Caceres props may also be intriguing.

Moicano/Kattar was the fight I capped first because I am so intrigued by this matchup. Kattar is more of a hot commodity after that incredibly impressive finish vs Burgos, but can't help but to think Moicano is being underestimated here. I came very close to betting the Moicano ML when it was in the +140s (I believe), and now am laying off as the price moves closer to evens. Could easily see either line getting some steam as the fight gets closer, so I am not counting out a play at different odds. In particular, I think the public underestimates just how impressive a prospect he is despite coming off a tough sub loss against the upcoming title contender at 145: Moicano younger, has significantly less fights than Kattar, and has a legitimate win against a very high-level Stephens. He also outstruck Ortega pretty decisively for 2 rounds before attempting an ill advised takedown that cost him the fight. Moicano is as consistently successful and skilled/well-rounded a FW prospect as there is in MMA, and there is some room for growth at 28 y.o. and with 13 career fights. Kattar is 30 years old, and is a little more shop-worn with 20 career fights, most of which are outside the UFC.

As impressive as Kattar has been, we haven't quite seen Kattar be tested by a talented grappler. Moicano is a BJJ black belt and his offensive takedowns are underrated. Being submitted by an all-world sub artist like Ortega is hardly an indictment of his grappling, and he is really great in this area. Kattar is a BJJ blue belt (I believe I saw that in UFC webpage), and I can't help but to think that MAYBE it has taken him so long to reach the UFC, and his career Finish % being so low, because grappling has been somewhat of a hole in his game that he has to overcome despite brilliant striking. His striking is phenomenal and superior to Moicano's, especially in fluidity and power of his punches. His TDD looked very good against Fili, but I tend to think that considering the fight was on short notice (please correct me on this if I am wrong) and because Kattar was such an unknown commodity at this time that maybe Fili was unprepared and shell-shocked in some respects. Fili has shown good wrestling in recent fights, but Moicano is the more decorated and competent grappler. Perhaps I am being a little harsh on Kattar and splitting hairs, but in a high-level matchup like this, it can't hurt to be a little more detailed in my analysis.

I lean on this side of this being a near 50-50 fight. It will come down to if Moicano can stay competitive enough in the standup with good footwork and leg kicks (see Stephens fight) as a means to set up takedowns and force grappling scrambles. Whether Kattar's TDD holds up is another important factor. Ultimately , I tend to give Moicano more of a benefit of the doubt, as he has the more impressive resume and has a little more room for growth from fight to fight. I actually think Kattar is more of the unknown commodity considering we haven't seen much of a sample size of him vs high level FWs. Fascinating matchup.

[Richard Clock]

Current plays so far. Still working through the last few fights. I shared all of my thoughts on OAM in the event thread. Happy to have gotten in on a reasonable historical price, may add on more if odds improve closer to fight time.

Happy to have gotten in on a good historical price (so far) on the AES prop. Didn't quite feel comfortable enough in AES to pay that extra juice on the ML, and I think there are a few pathways by which AES gets the finish by strikes; Rawlings has a tendency to absorb a lot of damage in the standup department, and a particular vulnerability to knees to the body and kicks, as displayed in her last fight vs Rose Clark. AES has a similar body profile to clark, and arguably stronger and more tenacious, especially in the clinch with knees to the body. I can also see AES finishing Bec on the ground with GnP if a large enough size and strength advantage exists. AES will be moving down in weight from 135, and her weight cut looks to have been successful. Bec is very aggressive with submissions off her back which could allow AES to advance to back mount or full mount and finishing her there. This bet also gives me an opportunity to fade a fighter with a generally unimpressive statistical profile and underwhelming resume of performances and strength of schedule.

[Richard Clock]

Added $25 on OAM at +125.

[the1yankee]

current plays so far. Still working through the last few fights. I shared all of my thoughts on oam in the event thread. Happy to have gotten in on a reasonable historical price, may add on more if odds improve closer to fight time.

Happy to have gotten in on a good historical price (so far) on the aes prop. Didn't quite feel comfortable enough in aes to pay that extra juice on the ml, and i think there are a few pathways by which aes gets the finish by strikes; rawlings has a tendency to absorb a lot of damage in the standup department, and a particular vulnerability to knees to the body and kicks, as displayed in her last fight vs rose clark. Aes has a similar body profile to clark, and arguably stronger and more tenacious, especially in the clinch with knees to the body. I can also see aes finishing bec on the ground with gnp if a large enough size and strength advantage exists. Aes will be moving down in weight from 135, and her weight cut looks to have been successful. Bec is very aggressive with submissions off her back which could allow aes to advance to back mount or full mount and finishing her there. This bet also gives me an opportunity to fade a fighter with a generally unimpressive statistical profile and underwhelming resume of performances and strength of schedule.

go rick

strike that clock oam