Vitucci FSP Bet Thread

[Richard Clock]

Sounds like my college days!

Started looking at some of the upcoming fights now that lines are out. Watching film on the Jouban/Saunders pairing right now, Jouban has the better resume as far as better level of competition (wins over Platinum Perry and Muhammed and loses in last 2 against Nelson and Price. Joubon also is a southpaw which seemed to make Saunders uncomfortable in the Sobotta fight. For Jouban to win, he needs to establish range to negate Saunders advantage in his kicking game.
Saunders was run through by Sobotta, he showed a lot of toughness just getting to the 2nd round, but he took a lot of damage. His gameplan seems to be, and has always been, to snipe on the outside and if it gets tight, initiate a clinch to utilize his brutal clinch game. This GP failed against Sobotta miserably. He showed regression compared to the McGee fight. I actually came away impressed against Court, he landed some clean shots in the first and second (although he out struck for the fight)and seemed poised to stick to the game plan and snipe until he got caught in round 3 and put on his back, but his back game nullified any finish, and essentially won him a very close fight.

I think the line is pretty solid here, I might actually have it a little higher for Joubon, but I need to watch a little more film. Can't wait to see this weeks contributions to making money.

I'd like to say my college days are to blame but this was about 3 years after I graduated!

Thanks for the breakdown, I haven't done any research yet but took a quick look at the lines today and think they are generally sharp. Kelleher could be an interesting play at dog odds but have to sit down and watch his most recent fights.

As for Jouban/Saunders, I haven't looked into it much but tend to think the current line looks about right. Will take a closer look at some of these matchups in the upcoming days and hopefully will report back with soemthing

[Richard Clock]

I haven't gotten much of a chance to really dive into this card between work and staying up in upstate NY for the weekend. I broke down Mcmann/Reneau, Barao/Kelleher, and Griffin/Perry. I have made the following bets so far:

Barao by decision at +255: Risking 25 to win 63.75. I don't feel as great about this bet mainly after the price shot up to the +280s. I provided a more detailed breakdown in the event thread. I think this will be a competitive fight with Barao having a decent-sized technique (grappling, especially) and size advantage.

Reneau by submission at +750: Risk 20 to win 150. I think Mcmann probably wins this more times than not, but was very impressed by Reneau's BJJ off her back, and especially in top position, in her recent fights. Mcmann should have great success with takedowns early in the fight, but tends to be too willing to sit in her guard, which is bad news against an aggresssive guard player like Reneau. I also think there is a pathway by which Mcmann fades in the later rounds and Reneau manages to find her way into top position whether through a takedown of her own or a knockdown.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I haven't gotten much of a chance to really dive into this card between work and staying up in upstate NY for the weekend. I broke down Mcmann/Reneau, Barao/Kelleher, and Griffin/Perry. I have made the following bets so far:

Barao by decision at +255: Risking 25 to win 63.75. I don't feel as great about this bet mainly after the price shot up to the +280s. I provided a more detailed breakdown in the event thread. I think this will be a competitive fight with Barao having a decent-sized technique (grappling, especially) and size advantage.

Reneau by submission at +750: Risk 20 to win 150. I think Mcmann probably wins this more times than not, but was very impressed by Reneau's BJJ off her back, and especially in top position, in her recent fights. Mcmann should have great success with takedowns early in the fight, but tends to be too willing to sit in her guard, which is bad news against an aggresssive guard player like Reneau. I also think there is a pathway by which Mcmann fades in the later rounds and Reneau manages to find her way into top position whether through a takedown of her own or a knockdown.

I'm with you on the Reneau Sub bet. Let's get it!

[Hugo de Naranja]

Where in upstate NY are you hanging out? I used to live there.

[Richard Clock]

Where in upstate NY are you hanging out? I used to live there.

I am up in my boss' log cabin in East Branch for a poker weekend. Trying to drink as many beers to drown out the cackling of one of my annoying coworkers. I'd really prefer to be home breaking down the remaining fights. Oh well! Let's cash that Reneau prop. I am feeling really good about that one.

[Richard Clock]

Adding one more bet:

Moroz ML at +155: Risking 30 to win 46.50. I think the price is high enough where this is tangible value and worthy of a bet. I don't think either fighter is significantly better than the other, and see this being a competive fight, possibly a split decision/close UD.

I still am uneasy with these bets overall and wish I had more time to research. I have set my bet sizes accordingly.

[HurlSweatPants]

GL my man

[Richard Clock]

GL my man

Thanks bud. Have any action tonight? Lower betting sizes tonight for me, as 2 of them are longer shots. I am very happy to have gotten good prices on all 3 bets. Moroz already down to close to evens, Barao by decision was in the +190s, and Reneau by sub now in the low +600s.

[Richard Clock]

Summary of last night's bets and updated performance summary since I start tracking my bets again in October.

Reneau by submission was a great prop hit +750 last night, and made even better considering that the line dropped to +605 near closing. Perhaps not coincidentally, I didn't feel awesome about the 2 other bets last night that were losers . Moroz was a value play at +155 in what i thought would be a coinflip, but I admittedly didn't do enough research on this fight and am a little disappointed in my lack of discipline. Still, I am happy with the price I got. The Barao/Kelleher bet I feel less bad about, as I did my research and felt good about my lean that this fight would go to the judges scorecard in a competitive fight, and that Barao would have a nice edge if it did. I am happy with jumping in on the prop at +255, as the price eventually dropped toward closing. I may have underestimated just how cooked Barao is (good call by Hugo), but you are not going to be right all the time.

I earned a net profit of $95, or 2.714 units last night, and a net profit of $220.38, or about 6.30 units for the month.out. Very happy with my performance overall, but still need to iron a few holes in my handicapping.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Summary of last night's bets and updated performance summary since I start tracking my bets again in October.

Reneau by submission was a great prop hit +750 last night, and made even better considering that the line dropped to +605 near closing. Perhaps not coincidentally, I didn't feel awesome about the 2 other bets last night that were losers . Moroz was a value play at +155 in what i thought would be a coinflip, but I admittedly didn't do enough research on this fight and am a little disappointed in my lack of discipline. Still, I am happy with the price I got. The Barao/Kelleher bet I feel less bad about, as I did my research and felt good about my lean that this fight would go to the judges scorecard in a competitive fight, and that Barao would have a nice edge if it did. I am happy with jumping in on the prop at +255, as the price eventually dropped toward closing. I may have underestimated just how cooked Barao is (good call by Hugo), but you are not going to be right all the time.

I earned a net profit of $95, or 2.714 units last night, and a net profit of $220.38, or about 6.30 units for the month.out. Very happy with my performance overall, but still need to iron a few holes in my handicapping.

Nice hit on that Reneau Submission. Seems like a lot of forum guys were on it. Always nice to hit a big prop together.

[HurlSweatPants]

Thanks bud. Have any action tonight? Lower betting sizes tonight for me, as 2 of them are longer shots. I am very happy to have gotten good prices on all 3 bets. Moroz already down to close to evens, Barao by decision was in the +190s, and Reneau by sub now in the low +600s.

Glad to see you prosper my dude.
Yeah had a really good night, went big on Kelleher and also hit Reneau straight and with the sub prop at +605 and Joubon ITD. Lost on Moroz straight and also took her winning by dec, but those were both my smaller unit bets. I took Stephens -5 1/2 +110 before the Torres fight for my smallest bet of the night, I got the line that I wanted I was just seeing if it would pump. The last 2 events have been my biggest days and it's not a coincidence that I have been putting more time into MMA film than any other sport.

Looking at O Malley vs Soukhamthath film right now, really excited about this card. The Ortega and Zingano lines seem to have value at first glance but I will get into those later.

[Richard Clock]

Nice hit on that Reneau Submission. Seems like a lot of forum guys were on it. Always nice to hit a big prop together.

Yes! Sometimes film watching can be misleading for handicapping, but Reneau is a clear example of a fighter who is better on film than what her record suggests and clearly improving in each fight. On the other hand, Mcmann seemed to be falling into the same bad habits in each fight and not progressing as a well rounded mixed-martial artist. Good to see that everyone caught this and made some money! Your recent performance is making the rest of the sub look bad. Good call on Barao/Kelleher. Keep up the great work.

[Richard Clock]

Glad to see you prosper my dude.
Yeah had a really good night, went big on Keheller and also hit Reneau straight and with the sub prop at +605 and Joubon ITD. Lost on Moroz straight and also took her winning by dec, but those were both my smaller unit bets. I took Stephens -5 1/2 +110 before the Torres fight for my smallest bet of the night, I got the line that I wanted I was just seeing if it would pump. The last 2 events have been my biggest days and it's not a coincidence that I have been putting more time into MMA film than any other sport.

Looking at O Malley vs Soukhamthath film right now, really excited about this card. The Ortega and Zingano lines seem to have value at first glance but I will get into those later.

Awesome call with Kelleher. Hugo tried to sway me off Barao, but I still gave Barao the benefit of a doubt and was not convinced Barao was completely done. Myabe a little bit of stubborness on my part in an attempt to be contrarian. My initial lean was on Kelleher ML but couldn't quite pull the trigger at the mean price available!

Really mad for not jumping on Ortega when he was in the +190s. Think Ortega
has a real shot and is special. Will need more time to look at Zigano/Viera, but inital lean of Cat. Looks like the line is moving closer to evens. I also think Caraway might be interesting at dog odds.

[HurlSweatPants]

Awesome call with Kelleher. Hugo tried to sway me off Barao, but I still gave Barao the benefit of a doubt and was not convinced Barao was completely done. Myabe a little bit of stubborness on my part in an attempt to be contrarian. My initial lean was on Kelleher ML but couldn't quite pull the trigger at the mean price available!

Really mad for not jumping on Ortega when he was in the +190s. Think Ortega
has a real shot and is special. Will need more time to look at Zigano/Viera, but inital lean of Cat. Looks like the line is moving closer to evens. I also think Caraway might be interesting at dog odds.

Yeah I feel the same about not jumping on Ortega early, I just needed to watch more on him as I have plenty on Frankie. Getting the better line is something I am looking to improve on, I wish I would've priced a better line for the Reneau sub as well as Joubon ITD. I spent a lot of time on both fight and had a feeling Joubon would get the finish but waited to late.

I will have to look more into Caraway, I will be looking at that fight soon as I am trying to get through the bantamweights first.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Yes! Sometimes film watching can be misleading for handicapping, but Reneau is a clear example of a fighter who is better on film than what her record suggests and clearly improving in each fight. On the other hand, Mcmann seemed to be falling into the same bad habits in each fight and not progressing as a well rounded mixed-martial artist. Good to see that everyone caught this and made some money! Your recent performance is making the rest of the sub look bad. Good call on Barao/Kelleher. Keep up the great work.

Cheers mate

[Richard Clock]

Hey guys, I am working through some fights for UFC 222 that I think are intriguing from a gambling perspective. I wanted to place this wager now though, as I think the value is there enough to warrant action. As you can see, I raised my betting unit size for this event (perhaps a little bit aggressive, and I may have to make an adjustment if these next events don't pan out well). Still, I think my research process and decision making have been very good, and am willing to be a little more aggressive with bet sizing until my profit margins/return clearly indicates otherwise.



My justification for this bet lies in my belief that Ortega is a truly special talent, and has all the qualities and indicators of an impending champion. At the least, I think he has enough to make this a very competitive fight. I am willing to take that shot at plus odds, with the added insurance of Edgar potentially winning ITD if I am WAY off.

The possession of one truly elite skill in his BJJ certainly made Ortega a dangerous prospect, but the rounding out of his entire MMA game over his most recent fights has been remarkable. Supporters of Edgar are quick to point out Ortega's forgettable rounds in the Guida fight, for example, as cause for concern, but this type of microanalysis couldn't be more off-base within context. Ortega, in his mid-20s, has been thrown to the wolves against seasoned veterans, in many cases with over a decade more experience than him. Growing pains are absolutely inevitable! That Ortega was not only competitive in these matchups, but has also consistently finished these opponents, speaks to how truly gifted Ortega is. He is essentially learning how to compete in high-level MMA on the fly in a sort of trial by fire, and has managed to come out unscathed. The notion that people can find criticism in what he has accomplished, and chalk up this string of wins as "luck", is laughable. In particular, his back to back submission wins against one of the best featherweights in MMA in Swanson and a phenomenal prospect in his own right in Moicano speaks to how quickly he has ascended as a mixed martial artist. What makes Ortega particularly intriguing from an upside standpoint is that he seems to be a savant athlete that can very efficiently absorb information and learn techniques from training and apply them in fights immediately. This sort of innate talent allowed him to become an elite BJJ player at such a young age, and it will allow him to grow quickly into an elite MMA fighter. He reminds me of Yoel Romero in this way. I think those confident backers of Edgar underestimate how drastically a young athlete like Ortega can improve from a fight to fight basis.

It is impossible to understate how brilliant of an athlete Frankie Edgar is, and he is the last fighter I want to bet against. See this as more of a tout of Ortega than a fade of Edgar. I still have a little extra insurance in the situation that I am completely wrong and Edgar finishes Ortega like he did Yair. The Edgar by decision prop has predictably gotten out of control, so I felt obliged to take the value there. There are some concerns with Edgar, particularly with respect to age and the amount of 5-round wars, training hours, injuries, and damage from weight cutting he has accumulated. Even for a fighter who trains as smartly and professionally as Edgar, this takes a gradual toll on you mentally and physically. There MUST be a point where Edgar slows down, and even if Edgar is currently 85% of the the fighter he was against Yair or Stephens, that still may be enough for Ortega to have an edge here. Again, I believe Ortega is a truly special talent.

I believe Ortega's improving kickboxing and superior reach is being understated. Additionally, if Ortega is unable to get into top position via traditional takedowns, I think he has enough craft, creativity, and confidence to find a way into advantageous positions on the ground.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hey guys, I am working through some fights for UFC 222 that I think are intriguing from a gambling perspective. I wanted to place this wager now though, as I think the value is there enough to warrant action. As you can see, I raised my betting unit size for this event (perhaps a little bit aggressive, and I may have to make an adjustment if these next events don't pan out well). Still, I think my research process and decision making have been very good, and am willing to be a little more aggressive with bet sizing until my profit margins/return clearly indicates otherwise.



My justification for this bet lies in my belief that Ortega is a truly special talent, and has all the qualities and indicators of an impending champion. At the least, I think he has enough to make this a very competitive fight. I am willing to take that shot at plus odds, with the added insurance of Edgar potentially winning ITD if I am WAY off.

The possession of one truly elite skill in his BJJ certainly made Ortega a dangerous prospect, but the rounding out of his entire MMA game over his most recent fights has been remarkable. Supporters of Edgar are quick to point out Ortega's forgettable rounds in the Guida fight, for example, as cause for concern, but this type of microanalysis couldn't be more off-base within context. Ortega, in his mid-20s, has been thrown to the wolves against seasoned veterans, in many cases with over a decade more experience than him. Growing pains are absolutely inevitable! That Ortega was not only competitive in these matchups, but has also consistently finished these opponents, speaks to how truly gifted Ortega is. He is essentially learning how to compete in high-level MMA on the fly in a sort of trial by fire, and has managed to come out unscathed. The notion that people can find criticism in what he has accomplished, and chalk up this string of wins as "luck", is laughable. In particular, his back to back submission wins against one of the best featherweights in MMA in Swanson and a phenomenal prospect in his own right in Moicano speaks to how quickly he has ascended as a mixed martial artist. What makes Ortega particularly intriguing from an upside standpoint is that he seems to be a savant athlete that can very efficiently absorb information and learn techniques from training and apply them in fights immediately. This sort of innate talent allowed him to become an elite BJJ player at such a young age, and it will allow him to grow quickly into an elite MMA fighter. He reminds me of Yoel Romero in this way. I think those confident backers of Edgar underestimate how drastically a young athlete like Ortega can improve from a fight to fight basis.

It is impossible to understate how brilliant of an athlete Frankie Edgar is, and he is the last fighter I want to bet against. See this as more of a tout of Ortega than a fade of Edgar. I still have a little extra insurance in the situation that I am completely wrong and Edgar finishes Ortega like he did Yair. The Edgar by decision prop has predictably gotten out of control, so I felt obliged to take the value there. There are some concerns with Edgar, particularly with respect to age and the amount of 5-round wars, training hours, injuries, and damage from weight cutting he has accumulated. Even for a fighter who trains as smartly and professionally as Edgar, this takes a gradual toll on you mentally and physically. There MUST be a point where Edgar slows down, and even if Edgar is currently 85% of the the fighter he was against Yair or Stephens, that still may be enough for Ortega to have an edge here. Again, I believe Ortega is a truly special talent.

I believe Ortega's improving kickboxing and superior reach is being understated. Additionally, if Ortega is unable to get into top position via traditional takedowns, I think he has enough craft, creativity, and confidence to find a way into advantageous positions on the ground.

So is this a 1u bet?

[Richard Clock]

So is this a 1u bet?

$50 is the 1 unit bet size that I decided on in my head, but I am starting to think that it is a little too aggressive. I am seemingly growing impatient of grinding and scraping my way to modest profits.

[Hugo de Naranja]

$50 is the 1 unit bet size that I decided on in my head, but I am starting to think that it is a little too aggressive. I am seemingly growing impatient of grinding and scraping my way to modest profits.

I'd say it's better to keep track of things in units rather than $ so your unit size is definitely worth some serious thought.

[Richard Clock]

I'd say it's better to keep track of things in units rather than $ so your unit size is definitely worth some serious thought.

I have been going with a unit size of $35/unit for the last few months, and feel like my recent performance warrants a slight increase. I have grown frustrated by seemingly scraping a modest profit in each event. Still, $50 is a bit of a steep increase. I guess I waver most on exactly how much I am willing to lose gambling, or what my bankroll should be.

[Shagdogy]

I have been going with a unit size of $35/unit for the last few months, and feel like my recent performance warrants a slight increase. I have grown frustrated by seemingly scraping a modest profit in each event. Still, $50 is a bit of a steep increase. I guess I waver most on exactly how much I am willing to lose gambling, or what my bankroll should be.

I keep my unit size 1.5% of my bankroll, so at $50 per unit I would be giving myself $3500 for a bankroll. It would take one hell of a bad run of $50 bets to burn through the bankroll, especially considering I will bet no more than about 12 units per card. Usually it's more like 6.

[Richard Clock]

I keep my unit size 1.5% of my bankroll, so at $50 per unit I would be giving myself $3500 for a bankroll. It would take one hell of a bad run of $50 bets to burn through the bankroll, especially considering I will bet no more than about 12 units per card. Usually it's more like 6.

I guess I really need to just set a bankroll once and for all. $35 per unit seems like a solid, conservative number, but can't help but to think I should be profiting more off my solid gambling and bumping up my unit size.

I'm at the part of my life where I don't have to support a family, don't pay rent and I make a steady income, so most of my money is expendable. My bankroll would probably be in the $2,500 to $3,500 range theoretically, but I'd like to think I would stop gambling altogether if my betting performance was so poor that I was down $800-$1,000.

[Richard Clock]

Two more bets in and likely more to come. O'Malley by sub prop may be a crowning achievement for me; I have a really good feeling about it. O'Malley has shown some craft against Kthashakyan and Ware with trip takedowns, and seems to be willing and aggressive in throwing up submissions whenever he finds himself on the ground. He even threw up a flying triangle against Ware that was a decent enough attempt. This is a fight that has every making of a brawl, which is why it would be fitting if we see these dudes hitting the mat eventually. O'Malley may be wary of Souk's heavy counter punching after a few early exchanges, and Souk has shown some vulnerability as an average to below average grappler. It should be mentioned that Souk faded a bit in the third round of his fights with Morales and Perez due to his aggressive brawling style, so a lazy takedown can leave Souk open to getting choked out in the 3rd round. O'Malley himself says his wrestling/grappling is underrated, and I tend to believe him. Obviously, this is a smaller bet (0.35u), but one I think is worth a shot at rather than pulling my hair out trying to predict the winner at pick em' odds.
I believe in Munhoz's talent and development as an elite technician in the BW division. He combines an ox-strong and technically proficient grappling game with an improving and increasingly effective striking game. He is younger, has less fights, and has taken less damage in his career than Dodson (who has 3 tough 5-round fights against Linkeker and Mighty Mouse under his belt). Dodson certainly has good technique, but it his elite athleticism/explosiveness/punching power that truly makes him a very tough test for the elite BMs. However, there is a point when at least a percentage of that explosiveness starts to wane at age 33. Combine that possibility with Munhoz being a decent-sized underdog, and I think the value is there enough for a 1 unit bet.

[Shagdogy]

Two more bets in and likely more to come. O'Malley by sub prop may be a crowning achievement for me; I have a really good feeling about it. O'Malley has shown some craft against Kthashakyan and Ware with trip takedowns, and seems to be willing and aggressive in throwing up submissions whenever he finds himself on the ground. He even threw up a flying triangle against Ware that was a decent enough attempt. This is a fight that has every making of a brawl, which is why it would be fitting if we see these dudes hitting the mat eventually. O'Malley may be wary of Souk's heavy counter punching after a few early exchanges, and Souk has shown some vulnerability as an average to below average grappler. It should be mentioned that Souk faded a bit in the third round of his fights with Morales and Perez due to his aggressive brawling style, so a lazy takedown can leave Souk open to getting choked out in the 3rd round. O'Malley himself says his wrestling/grappling is underrated, and I tend to believe him. Obviously, this is a smaller bet (0.35u), but one I think is worth a shot at rather than pulling my hair out trying to predict the winner at pick em' odds.
I believe in Munhoz's talent and development as an elite technician in the BW division. He combines an ox-strong and technically proficient grappling game with an improving and increasingly effective striking game. He is younger, has less fights, and has taken less damage in his career than Dodson (who has 3 tough 5-round fights against Linkeker and Mighty Mouse under his belt). Dodson certainly has good technique, but it his elite athleticism/explosiveness/punching power that truly makes him a very tough test for the elite BMs. However, there is a point when at least a percentage of that explosiveness starts to wane at age 33. Combine that possibility with Munhoz being a decent-sized underdog, and I think the value is there enough for a 1 unit bet.

You guys talked me into Munhoz by convincing me he has a real shot at a decision win as well as sub. I'm with you on that one. I also took O'Malley at +122. Good luck.

[Richard Clock]

You guys talked me into Munhoz by convincing me he has a real shot at a decision win as well as sub. I'm with you on that one. I also took O'Malley at +122. Good luck.

Awesome, this is a bet I feel even better about after seeing Hugo backing him. I have to thank Hugo again for advising me to jump on Munhoz at +155, as the line has moved down to +135 on 5D. I think Munhoz overal skill level is underrated, and the decision victory is definitely in play.

[Richard Clock]

Hope everyone on the east coast is staying dry, we are getting killed by the nor'easter from where I am from.

I feel better about these bets than I have in a while. I got Munhoz (+155) and NOT Edgar by decision (+149) at excellent historical prices before they have moved back down. I have to give Hugo props again for providing insight on what is a very lacking aspect of my handicapping. O'Malley by sub has since moved down to +1195, awesome.



I feel good about this play, as I expect the price I got on Zingano to be around its peak. I could be wrong, however, as I didn't even expect Cat's line to get to where it is now. I was considering Cat in the +140s, but started to reconsider, especially after rewatching her fight against Tate, where she showed vulnerabilities in her striking defense. We as gamblers must have humility as new information comes in and as prices change. I am glad I showed patience in this case to not jump on a worse price. At this price of +170, I believe the value is there enough to make a confident play. While Cat certainly has holes in her game that shows up in tape (striking defense, inactivity on her back), she has generally been competitive/successful against high-level BWs, which is meaningful to me. Viera is clearly very talented, but hasn't been tested in the same way consistently. It is one thing to believe Viera will win, she certainly has the skills to do so, but to believe she wins consistently enough in this matchup to justify this line is a leap of faith I am not comfortable with.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Awesome, this is a bet I feel even better about after seeing Hugo backing him. I have to thank Hugo again for advising me to jump on Munhoz at +155, as the line has moved down to +135 on 5D. I think Munhoz overal skill level is underrated, and the decision victory is definitely in play.

No problem mate. Hope we both cash it.

[Richard Clock]

Added on $10 to Cat at +180. That puts me at a full unit of Cat at +170 and +180. Still a bit confounded at this line movement, but happy to take the value on Cat as presented. The line on 5D moved from +185 this morning to down to +180. Most other books have her in the +170s and +160s. In the fear that this line takes a dip towards pick em closer to fight time, I decided to "complete" my unit bet at +180 and not stress over it. Still plenty of value to be had at these prices, but maybe not the best historical price that will be available. Can't be TOO greedy, I guess.

[Richard Clock]

And props again to Hugo for posting the Kristina Williams play for Bellator's card last night. In the interest of transparency, I posted in the event thread that I was putting down a half unit bet ($25) on Williams at +265. Easy value play and thrilled to cash.

[HurlSweatPants]

Hope everyone on the east coast is staying dry, we are getting killed by the nor'easter from where I am from.

I feel better about these bets than I have in a while. I got Munhoz (+155) and NOT Edgar by decision (+149) at excellent historical prices before they have moved back down. I have to give Hugo props again for providing insight on what is a very lacking aspect of my handicapping. O'Malley by sub has since moved down to +1195, awesome.



I feel good about this play, as I expect the price I got on Zingano to be around its peak. I could be wrong, however, as I didn't even expect Cat's line to get to where it is now. I was considering Cat in the +140s, but started to reconsider, especially after rewatching her fight against Tate, where she showed vulnerabilities in her striking defense. We as gamblers must have humility as new information comes in and as prices change. I am glad I showed patience in this case to not jump on a worse price. At this price of +170, I believe the value is there enough to make a confident play. While Cat certainly has holes in her game that shows up in tape (striking defense, inactivity on her back), she has generally been competitive/successful against high-level BWs, which is meaningful to me. Viera is clearly very talented, but hasn't been tested in the same way consistently. It is one thing to believe Viera will win, she certainly has the skills to do so, but to believe she wins consistently enough in this matchup to justify this line is a leap of faith I am not comfortable with.

BOL on your picks, and agree with your information on getting the best line, it has been my mantra for the past two weeks.

[HurlSweatPants]

And props again to Hugo for posting the Kristina Williams play for Bellator's card last night. In the interest of transparency, I posted in the event thread that I was putting down a half unit bet ($25) on Williams at +265. Easy value play and thrilled to cash.

Always a shout out to Hugo, if I ever feel good about a pick, AND THEN I see Hugo backing it as well, odds are I am making it hail. The guy is a monster.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Always a shout out to Hugo, if I ever feel good about a pick, AND THEN I see Hugo backing it as well, odds are I am making it hail. The guy is a monster.

Thanks bro

[Richard Clock]

Dollaway/Lombard is a matchup that is intriguing, especially after breaking it down a little. I think Dollaway has a massive advantage if this becomes a grappling match. Dollaway is a huge 185er and will really wear out and gas Lombard if he manages to get a takedown. I was impressed with Dollaway's heavy top game and resiliency to fight for top position in grappling exchanges, even when he is tired. It is that grinding wrestler mentality that Lombard lacks. To put it simply, Dollaway gets tired, while Lombard gases. Lombard becomes more of a shell of himself when his opponent is able to dictate the pace and wear on him. Hendricks was unable to do that as a grappler because he is undersized for that division, and Anthony Smith is a zero as a grappler. Those were two bad losses, and while he has faced some tough dudes recently, being 0-4 in his L4 is meaningful, especially considering that he is in his early 40s and has fought 40+ times. Lombard has a reasonable chance for a knockout if this fight stays standing, and I was generally impressed by his boxing in his last few fights and unimpressed with CB's striking defense.

[Richard Clock]

Here are my bets so far for this event. I added Johnson in +201. Reasons why I like this bet:

Most important is that I got in at a good historical price, as the line opened at +154 and hasn't gotten higher than +201. I wavered between this and the ML, as that was also a line whose price has dropped since open. I am concerned with Milstead's loss of a speed, athleticism and technique advantage he had at HW. He has dropped 30 pounds of weight since he fought at 235 lbs vs de la Rocha, and even in that fight he had his mouth open by the beginning on round 2. At weigh ins he looked very lean, and I question his cardio and durability, especially if Johnson is able to dictate the pace of this fight with superior technique. I think there is a very realistic scenario by which Jordan slowly wears down Milstead and finishes him in the later rounds. Johnson was unable to finish his last 2 opponents, so the ITD prop will likely look less appealing to the betting public.

[Richard Clock]

Added this bet...My thoughts on the fight are above. I think that if this fight hits the mat that Dollaway will be able to wear on Lombard with his heavy top game. CB is aggressive with submissions when on the ground and may be able to catch Lombard in the later rounds. Line opened at +685. Lombard has never been submitted, but this is a long shot in the betting public's view (<10% chance).