UFC Fight Night 123: Swanson vs. Ortega | Saturday 12.09.2017 (Fresno, CA)

**Hugo de Naranja** · 12-09-17, 03:08 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

I think Sterling could tip the cards in his favor with an all the way out, all the way in game plan. If he has success controlling the majority of clinch or TD attempts, then he may be able to stay enough at range in the striking to avoid taking too much damage from Moraes.

This is also late notice and a lot of recent action for Moraes. Slight value on Sterling here IMO.

Definitely possible.

**thewitchinghour** · 12-09-17, 03:15 PM

One thing to consider on the other side is that this is a last minute opponent change for Anders, which could potentially get the rookie out of his game... something to consider and why I wouldn't want to lay the full 4-1 but there might be some value in between there with a first round win bet like Hugo said or an under possibly, Anders by TKO/KO... would write something more detailed but Army/Navy is going to be a classic... GL all

**JIBBBY** · 12-09-17, 03:16 PM

Originally posted by thewitchinghour

One thing to consider on the other side is that this is a last minute opponent change for Anders, which could potentially get the rookie out of his game... something to consider and why I wouldn't want to lay the full 4-1 but there might be some value in between there with a first round win bet like Hugo said or an under possibly, Anders by TKO/KO... would write something more detailed but Army/Navy is going to be a classic... GL all

I'm watching the ARMY/NAVY game now.. Lol... Took Army... Run Run run the ball in the snow they will..

**Shagdogy** · 12-09-17, 03:24 PM

Anyone looking at Neto by sub? Giles has been in some deep sub attempts in the past. He always seems to get loose, but not good that he finds his way inside deep attempts often.

Unfortunately my book prob won't have this prop.

**JIBBBY** · 12-09-17, 03:27 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Anyone looking at Neto by sub? Giles has been in some deep sub attempts in the past. He always seems to get loose, but not good that he finds his way inside deep attempts often.

Unfortunately my book prob won't have this prop.

I am.. Hoping Neto gets the sub.. This is how I'm playing the first fight..

$100.00

$155.00

Pending

12/9/17 6:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2211 Giles wins by 3 round decision +155* vs Not Giles by 3 round decision

hedged

$50.00

$280.00

Pending

12/9/17 6:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2227 Neto wins by submission +560* vs Any other result

**Hugo de Naranja** · 12-09-17, 03:40 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Anyone looking at Neto by sub? Giles has been in some deep sub attempts in the past. He always seems to get loose, but not good that he finds his way inside deep attempts often.

Unfortunately my book prob won't have this prop.

I've got Neto Sub (+560) for .5u as my only bet on the fight. Picking Giles to win but I think this is Neto's best path to victory.

**thewitchinghour** · 12-09-17, 04:13 PM

not a bad value bet... I like how some of you approach the card...

Gl on Army Jibby... got navy but I'm scratching around for a live +7 on army to middle it

**Shagdogy** · 12-09-17, 04:15 PM

I know the line is real steep for a guy with very little footage out there available to see, but does anyone else get the sense that Alex Perez is worth every dollar and is going to win this fight easy? I won't be playing him unless in a parlay, but I have the feeling that he runs away with this fight.

**thewitchinghour** · 12-09-17, 04:24 PM

that moment when there are three Perez's on the card...

**JIBBBY** · 12-09-17, 04:27 PM

Originally posted by thewitchinghour

not a bad value bet... I like how some of you approach the card...

Gl on Army Jibby... got navy but I'm scratching around for a live +7 on army to middle it

Army all of the sudden can't run the ball.. I'm looking to Arb out soon maybe.. Navy might have been the right call..

**thewitchinghour** · 12-09-17, 04:31 PM

something magical about this army team though... I definitely want to find a +7, left a +3.5 live on the table... I think that may have been a mistake... think this remains tight

edit: so I can still get the +3.5 on army to add to my navy line to find a middle hopefully... I think i might wait... beginning of this game i would have pounced on this... army seemed like they would be running the ball down their throats... navy stepped up the d

**WolfTicketDealer** · 12-09-17, 04:55 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Do you think he gets TDs and top control or outstrikes Moraes? I just think Moraes will land the much better strikes on the feet for as long as it stays there. Could be a close fight since Sterling always fights close but I think Moraes should be more like (-190) here.

I think Sterling will get a couple of TD's. I could also see him winning rounds on points by throwing more volume (he does have a 4.5 in reach advantage; not huge, but can be enough to make an impact).

It's also hard for me to overlook such a quick comeback for Moraes. He took some hits against Dodson (I know he was knocked down once in R1) and now is coming back under a month later against a guy who has never been finished and both of his losses were rather close. I think Aljo is a difficult fighter to prepare for. I don't think it's tremendous value since Moraes will likely land much better strikes (as you noted) but I think this will be a close fight and am putting 1u on Sterling by decision (+223).

**Hugo de Naranja** · 12-09-17, 05:11 PM

Originally posted by WolfTicketDealer

I think Sterling will get a couple of TD's. I could also see him winning rounds on points by throwing more volume (he does have a 4.5 in reach advantage; not huge, but can be enough to make an impact).

It's also hard for me to overlook such a quick comeback for Moraes. He took some hits against Dodson (I know he was knocked down once in R1) and now is coming back under a month later against a guy who has never been finished and both of his losses were rather close. I think Aljo is a difficult fighter to prepare for. I don't think it's tremendous value since Moraes will likely land much better strikes (as you noted) but I think this will be a close fight and am putting 1u on Sterling by decision (+223).

Fair enough. It is a very quick turnaround for Moraes.

**Shagdogy** · 12-09-17, 05:22 PM

What are everyone's favorite parlay pieces on this card?

**Fight4m** · 12-09-17, 05:26 PM

It seems there are a lot of people here impressed by undefeated records !! Records mean nothing!! When you cap a fight you must watch everything from height, power , strenght , motivation , past fights , etc etc... let me be clear, i really think Cub and Morales should win, they are the better fighters for sure , Ortega is kinda slow , Cub is faster i think has more power and he can fight for some good rounds , same for Lopez ,that skinny boy will have a real test tonight against Morales for sure .. remember last week??? Gaethe lol. jibby wheres your old avatar lol

**Hugo de Naranja** · 12-09-17, 05:29 PM

Hedging with Perez Submission (+1350) on the Anders fight. Brendan Allen had him in several deep sub attempts and I think this is Perez' best path to victory.

**JIBBBY** · 12-09-17, 05:30 PM

Originally posted by Fight4m

It seems there are a lot of people here impressed by undefeated records !! Records mean nothing!! When you cap a fight you must watch everything from height, power , strenght , motivation , past fights , etc etc... let me be clear, i really think Cub and Morales should win, they are the better fighters for sure , Ortega is kinda slow , Cub is faster i think has more power and he can fight for some good rounds , same for Lopez ,that skinny boy will have a real test tonight against Morales for sure .. remember last week??? Gaethe lol. jibby wheres your old avatar lol

Working on a new Avatar picture.. Can't think of a fighter I really really like right now that is winning.. Give me some time..

Undefeated fighters fight with confidence because they haven't faced defeat yet.. Until the 0 goes you can't count them out.. Fighting is mostly mental when the skills are already in place.. You either battle or break mentally in other words.

**Fight4m** · 12-09-17, 05:32 PM

Oh and the best pick today is in boxing loma vs rigo GOES the distance at +110 wow thats the pick of the year!! People still think loma can ko rigo llooll its not the same playing the guitar like playing a violin folks!! Parlay i made tonight for fun morales, cub,and loma,rigo goes dist $200 to win $1300 good luck

**Hugo de Naranja** · 12-09-17, 06:02 PM

UFC Fight Night 123: Swanson vs. Ortega Picks:
Trevin Giles Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Davi Ramos Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Alejandro Perez Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Merab Dvalishvili Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Alex Perez Round 1 Submission (D’Arce Choke)
Luke Sanders Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Alexis Davis Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Benito Lopez Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Eryk Anders Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Scott Holtzman Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Marlon Moraes Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Jason Knight Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Brian Ortega Round 3 Submission (Triangle Choke)

**Hugo de Naranja** · 12-09-17, 06:03 PM

UFC Fight Night 123: Swanson vs. Ortega

Fight Pass Prelims:

Fight #1: Giles vs. Neto
Neto Submission (+560) .5u

Fight #2: Ramos vs. Gruetzemacher
Ramos ITD (+165) 2u

Hedge:
Gruetzemacher Decision (+538) .5u

Fight #3: Alcantara vs. Perez
Perez (+160) 1u
Perez Decision (+400) 1u
Alcantara+Perez Draw (+8000) .1u

Hedge(s):
Alcantara Round 1 (+325) .5u
Alcantara Submission (+450) .5u

Fox Sports 1 Prelims:

Fight #4: Saenz vs. Dvalishvili (DEBUT)
Parlays

Fight #5: Perez (DEBUT) vs. De Tomas
No Bet

Fight #6: Sanders vs. Soukhamthath
Sanders -3.5 (-105) 3.15u to win 3u
Sanders KO/TKO (+325) 1u

Hedge:
Soukhamthath ITD (+524) .5u

Fight #7: Carmouche vs. Davis
Carmouche ITD (+438) .5u

Main Card:

Fight #8: Lopez (DEBUT) vs. Morales
Lopez+Morales Wont Start Round 2 (+365) .5u
Lopez KO/TKO (+505) .5u

Fight #9: Anders vs. Perez (DEBUT)
Anders Round 1 (+225) 1u

Hedge:
Perez Submission (+1350) .5u

Fight #10: Holtzman vs. Horcher
Holtzman (-118) 2.36u to win 2u

Fight #11: Moraes vs. Sterling
Moraes (-150) 1.5u to win 1u

Hedge:
Sterling Submission (+960) .5u

Fight #12: Knight vs. Benitez
Knight+Benitez Under 2.5 (+120) 1u
Knight Submission (+310) 1u

Hedge:
Benitez ITD (+822) .5u

Fight #13: Swanson vs. Ortega
Ortega ITD (+247) 2u
Ortega Round 3 (+1050) 1u
Ortega Split/Majority Decision (+1200) .25u
Ortega Round 4 (+1650) .25u
Ortega Round 5 (+2450) .25u
Swanson+Ortega Draw (+8000) .1u

Hedge(s):
Swanson Unanimous Decision (+258) 2u
Swanson KO/TKO (+695) .5u

Straight Parlays:
Holtzman+Horcher Over 2.5/Sanders (+101) 1u
Holtzman+Horcher Over 2.5/Moraes (+123) 2u
Ramos/Dvalishvili (+126) 1u
Holtzman/Moraes/Knight+Benitez Under 2.5/Ortega (+905) .25u

Prop Parlays:
Anders -3.5/Sanders (+116) 1u
Davis/Lopez/Anders+Perez Under 2.5 (+468) .5u
Dvalishvili/Perez ITD/Sanders Decision (+590) .25u
Giles -3.5/Ramos ITD/Perez (+958) .25u

Full Card Props:
Swanson+Ortega FOTN (+275) 1u
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+307) 1u
Over 9.5 Fights Go Distance (+787) .5u

Multi-Event Parlays:
Anders -3.5/Cyborg (+103) 1u

**Sato** · 12-09-17, 06:22 PM

Hugo is riding the Ortega train. Thats a bad sign for me.

**UncleChael** · 12-09-17, 06:41 PM

Originally posted by Sato

Hugo is riding the Ortega train. Thats a bad sign for me.

fukking burn' em!! burn the tickets now!!!

**Fight4m** · 12-09-17, 06:42 PM

A bad sign why?? Everyone here should trust what youre betting! Im not saying Hugo is not a great capper ,it is!! But we all should bet what we like and im sure of my plays and im not changing my view of my picks ,sometimes we agree and sometimes not .

**Shagdogy** · 12-09-17, 06:47 PM

Soukhamthath +215, .5u
Holtzman -142, 1u
Lopez -120, 1.2u
Aljo +125,
Benitez +265, .5u
Alex Perez + Alcantara parlay -106, 1u

That's all for now. Buncha small stuff just hopefully have a little fun. Good luck everyone.

**Fight4m** · 12-09-17, 06:47 PM

This is what i like about this forum is soo informative and full of points of views,lots of opinions and yeah i would like to see Hugo liking morales or Cub but not this time ..

**UncleChael** · 12-09-17, 06:50 PM

T-City is Hot Lava. Fighting less than 4 hours from his hometown. This boy is gonna put on a show.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 12-09-17, 06:51 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Soukhamthath +215, .5u
Holtzman -142, 1u
Lopez -120, 1.2u
Aljo +125,
Benitez +265, .5u
Alex Perez + Alcantara parlay -106, 1u

That's all for now. Buncha small stuff just hopefully have a little fun. Good luck everyone.

How much on Sterling?

**Hugo de Naranja** · 12-09-17, 06:52 PM

Originally posted by Fight4m

This is what i like about this forum is soo informative and full of points of views,lots of opinions and yeah i would like to see Hugo liking morales or Cub but not this time ..

Best of luck on your bets my friend!

**Sato** · 12-09-17, 06:55 PM

Giles right hand KO HOLMES! Next one!

**Fight4m** · 12-09-17, 06:55 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Best of luck on your bets my friend!

Thank you bro , you too

**Shagdogy** · 12-09-17, 06:57 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Soukhamthath +215, .5u
Holtzman -142, 1u
Lopez -120, 1.2u
Aljo +125, .8u
Benitez +265, .5u
Alex Perez + Alcantara parlay -106, 1u

That's all for now. Buncha small stuff just hopefully have a little fun. Good luck everyone.

Forgot to put it... .8u on Sterling. Nothing big this card.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 12-09-17, 07:00 PM

Originally posted by Sato

Giles right hand KO HOLMES! Next one!

He showed solid boxing technique and cardio there

**Shagdogy** · 12-09-17, 07:01 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

He showed solid boxing technique and cardio there

His cardio has always been pretty good. He loses a lot of first rounds and then wears on his opponents. Seen it in a few of his fights.

**Shagdogy** · 12-09-17, 07:02 PM

Hugo - you like Holtzman the best today? I capped him to win this feet with a number of advantages but felt Horcher was a bit of a wild card. You confident?

**Hugo de Naranja** · 12-09-17, 07:04 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Hugo - you like Holtzman the best today? I capped him to win this feet with a number of advantages but felt Horcher was a bit of a wild card. You confident?

I'm confident that Holtzman is the value side even as the favorite. He dominates bums (Pfister and McBride) and stays competitive with fighters that are better then him technically (Emmett and Dober). Also he's a former hockey player which should be a big plus for you!