UFC Fight Night 123: Swanson vs. Ortega | Saturday 12.09.2017 (Fresno, CA)

[Sato]

Cub doesnt finish anybody these days. He looked sloppy but safe against Lobov. Ortega was about to lose a dec. when Moicano went for the takedown. Cub can win by volume. I dont think Cub can put Ortega away at this stage of his career with Ortegas chin.

Cub u. dec. +265? Wow.

[Shagdogy]

I think I'm liking Soukhamthath as the dog here. His record is 0-2 in UFC but most outlets (and I agree) scored his fight vs Perez for him, and he was one reversed TD attempt from beating Morales. He could easily be 2-0.

Keys for Soukh this fight are that his TDD has looked good. His left hand is very good, both jab and hook, which should be a solid weapon vs Southpaw. He's never been finished and his cardio is solid (last fight at altitude in Mexico City).

All signs in this fight point to Sanders being tested. Can Sanders beat Soukh by decision? Can he do it if he can't land TDs? If this fight is going to be a standup fight that goes to the bell, no way Soukh should be 2-1.

[Demonata]

I think I'm liking Soukhamthath as the dog here. His record is 0-2 in UFC but most outlets (and I agree) scored his fight vs Perez for him, and he was one reversed TD attempt from beating Morales. He could easily be 2-0.

Keys for Soukh this fight are that his TDD has looked good. His left hand is very good, both jab and hook, which should be a solid weapon vs Southpaw. He's never been finished and his cardio is solid (last fight at altitude in Mexico City).

All signs in this fight point to Sanders being tested. Can Sanders beat Soukh by decision? Can he do it if he can't land TDs? If this fight is going to be a standup fight that goes to the bell, no way Soukh should be 2-1.

Im glad im not the only one on him

[ken10]

Is this Cubs first fight since training with Killashaw and Ludwig?

[Shagdogy]

I guess by the limited chatter for this card everyone is having as much trouble getting excited for it as I am?

Doesn't seem like a great card to bet at all.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Is this Cubs first fight since training with Killashaw and Ludwig?

I believe so

[Hugo de Naranja]

Lol. I just don't see how Cub wins..

Hopefully just joking with the old "no path to victory" bit

[Hugo de Naranja]

I think I'm liking Soukhamthath as the dog here. His record is 0-2 in UFC but most outlets (and I agree) scored his fight vs Perez for him, and he was one reversed TD attempt from beating Morales. He could easily be 2-0.

Keys for Soukh this fight are that his TDD has looked good. His left hand is very good, both jab and hook, which should be a solid weapon vs Southpaw. He's never been finished and his cardio is solid (last fight at altitude in Mexico City).

All signs in this fight point to Sanders being tested. Can Sanders beat Soukh by decision? Can he do it if he can't land TDs? If this fight is going to be a standup fight that goes to the bell, no way Soukh should be 2-1.

I think Sanders will make light work of Andre. In my opinon, this is a significant step up for Soukh despite coming off back-to-back losses. Sanders could beat Soukh by decision or ITD. He is a good cage cutter, throws a ton of volume with moderate power, great GnP, seems to have solid cardio despite a high energy style. I think he's better everywhere and would be glad to put some BPs on Sanders if you wan to take Soukh.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I think Sanders will make light work of Andre. In my opinon, this is a significant step up for Soukh despite coming off back-to-back losses. Sanders could beat Soukh by decision or ITD. He is a good cage cutter, throws a ton of volume with moderate power, great GnP, seems to have solid cardio despite a high energy style. I think he's better everywhere and would be glad to put some BPs on Sanders if you wan to take Soukh.

I also LOVE Sanders' clinch striking

[Hugo de Naranja]

De Tomas vs. Perez will now be contested at Bantamweight due to CSAC concerns about De Tomas' weight.

[JollyRogerMMA]

De Tomas vs. Perez will now be contested at Bantamweight due to CSAC concerns about De Tomas' weight.

GooD heads up on that ... Changes my O/U data set at the very least.

[JollyRogerMMA]

I know this is MMA / UFC thread but Lomanchenko O/U is 9 1/2 -190 I max bet that 5+ Units .... I think this fight goes to a DEC -240 to -300 I think there is a ton of value on that over putting it out there.

[turbozed]

I think Sanders will make light work of Andre. In my opinon, this is a significant step up for Soukh despite coming off back-to-back losses. Sanders could beat Soukh by decision or ITD. He is a good cage cutter, throws a ton of volume with moderate power, great GnP, seems to have solid cardio despite a high energy style. I think he's better everywhere and would be glad to put some BPs on Sanders if you wan to take Soukh.

I wouldn't say Sanders is better everywhere than Andre. Sanders' range striking is actually not that great. He jumps in, plants his feet, and just throws bombs. He's lucky he hasn't fought anyone with a semblance of counter timing. If it stays in distance, Souk should be able counter Sanders pretty easily.

Sanders will likely be able to just clinch up and do his mix of wrestling and opportunistic punching at close range though. More likely than not at least. Souk might have decent TDD but probably having only 2 weeks to prepare for this fight means he won't be able to keep Sanders off him. Still I don't think the fight will be a huge blowout unless it turns into a one-sided wrestling match.

[ken10]

I believe so

For this reason, I think Cub gets a finish.

[PaperTrail07]

CUB
MORAES
ANDERS
MORALES

[PaperTrail07]

HUGE IMO...this feels like free $$ I SAID IT LOL>..

I don’t see Sterling getting consistent TDs here and Moraes has a huge advantage on the feet.

[PaperTrail07]

Sleeping GIANT here...

I guess by the limited chatter for this card everyone is having as much trouble getting excited for it as I am?

Doesn't seem like a great card to bet at all.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I wouldn't say Sanders is better everywhere than Andre. Sanders' range striking is actually not that great. He jumps in, plants his feet, and just throws bombs. He's lucky he hasn't fought anyone with a semblance of counter timing. If it stays in distance, Souk should be able counter Sanders pretty easily.

Sanders will likely be able to just clinch up and do his mix of wrestling and opportunistic punching at close range though. More likely than not at least. Souk might have decent TDD but probably having only 2 weeks to prepare for this fight means he won't be able to keep Sanders off him. Still I don't think the fight will be a huge blowout unless it turns into a one-sided wrestling match.

I think Sanders will just close the distance and start pounding away. He sets such a high pace and does a good job of cage cutting and blitzing opponents.

[JIBBBY]

CUB
MORAES
ANDERS
MORALES

Why Morales Paper? Lopez is undefeated also.. I'm liking Benito Lopez myself...

UFC Fight Night 123 - Bantamweight 3 rounds - SaveMart Center - Fresno, California - FS1
Sat 12/9		1501 Albert Morales		-110	o2½ -200
10:00PM		1502 Benito Lopez		-110	u2½ +170

Albert
Morales
"The Warrior"
vs
Benito
Lopez
"Golden Boy"

UNITED STATES
Country
UNITED STATES

7-2-1
Record
8-0-0

29%
KO/TKO
38%

43%
SUB
25%

14%
DEC
38%

69 in
Height
70 in

135 lbs
Weight
135 lbs

72 in
Reach
73 in

39 in
Leg Reach
0 in



135 lbs.: Benito “Golden Boy” Lopez (8-0) vs. Albert “The Warrior” Morales (7-2-1)
Nostradumbass predicts: After an undefeated run on the amateur circuit, Benito Lopez turned pro and made a mockery of the regional scene, which includes three straight knockout wins for King of the Cage (KOTC). That was enough to earn him a spot on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series, which is the longest and most annoying name in the industry.
From there, “Golden Boy” — who got his nickname by scoring gold medals in grappling competitions — picked up yet another “W” to earn a UFC contract and his first opponent will be Albert Morales, who picked up wins for WSOF and Bellator MMA before making his Octagon debut in late 2016. He hasn’t done much with the opportunity, going from undefeated to 1-2-1 in four trips to the Octagon.
Morales has the benefit of UFC experience and has faced much tougher competition, but “The Warrior” doesn’t seem to be making the kind of progress you would expect at this stage of his career. Both fighters are equally talented both on the feet and on the floor, but I like the confidence and aggression Lopez has shown to date, and I think his hunger carries him to a violent, first-round victory.
Final prediction: Lopez def. Morales by technical knockout

[Shagdogy]

I think Sanders will just close the distance and start pounding away. He sets such a high pace and does a good job of cage cutting and blitzing opponents.

I guess I have to watch some more of his older fights. I haven't been impressed with his standup in the UFC fights other than some power. It's also hard to tell from the Alcantara fight if Sanders's wrestler ride is really that heavy, or if Alcantara was just hanging out in that turtle position.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I guess I have to watch some more of his older fights. I haven't been impressed with his standup in the UFC fights other than some power. It's also hard to tell from the Alcantara fight if Sanders's wrestler ride is really that heavy, or if Alcantara was just hanging out in that turtle position.

Check out his fight with Terrion Ware. I can send you the link.

[Shagdogy]

Anyone have thoughts on Saenz vs Dvalishvili? Very hard to find full fight vids of Merab but from highlights it looks like his body lock trip takedowns are quite strong, but his striking looks stiff and hulkish - lacking technique, just packing power in his right hand. His level of competition on the regional scene also hasn't been very good before his last fight. Is he getting too much respect coming in as the favorite here?

[Shagdogy]

Horcher vs Holtzman is the first matchup of two fighters that I have won max bets on. I don't know what to do!!

[JIBBBY]

Here's my analysis of Morales/Lopez. If you guys have anything to add or any criticism of what's already there, definitely don't hold back.

Benito Lopez is an 8-0 pro fighter with 2 amateur wins as well according to Tapology. But on Youtube, you can find at least another 5 amateur fights of his which all end with a 1st round TKO win. According to Benitez himself, he's been fighting since the age of 15. So apparently despite being only 23 years young, he's been in the game for at least 7 or 8 years. Despite having watched about 10 of his fights, I still can't get a good read on how good (or perhaps bad) his striking skills are.

Lopez pretty much blasted his amateur competition (many of whom were making their amateur debut or only had 1 or 2 fights). These fights look pretty much the same. Lopez comes forward with punches and high kicks until his opponent falls down and he lands in mount and pummels them. He is very long and rangy for bantamweight, at 5'11 and with a 73" reach. He was able to squeak out a split decision win against his toughest opponent Steven Peterson in DWCS. During this fight we finally got to see more than a few seconds of his game.

In the striking department, Lopez's style can be described as a more raw and unbalanced version of Alex Caceres. He's rangy but doesn't seem to know how to use this much to his advantage. Doesn't throw a jab very often except maybe to paw at his opponent while finding range for his kicking game or the infrequent and wound-up right straight. He's put out amateur opponents with head kicks but the ones thrown against Peterson appeared more slappy than crushing. One powerful technique that he was able to land over and over was the flying knee, which he seems to time better than his punches. He only needed to land 1 of these flying knees to turn the lights out against Rick "The Illness" James. He landed 5 of 5 against Peterson.

Despite obviously having a knack for timing knees and some more unconventional strikes (like elbows in the clinch or a flurry of step-in uppercuts), Lopez's overall striking game has a few holes. His hands are usually dangerously low and he's often falling forwards into his opponents when he throws. He doesn't appear very comfortable with pocket punching and forward pressure from his opponent. Due to his lack of balance, it seemed likely that a competent wrestler would likely be able to ground him rather easily. To Lopez's credit, he was able to stop this from happening in Rds 1 and 3 of his fight with Peterson. In some of his fights, he's been content to eat leg kicks and bodykicks without checking or countering.

Morales is less diverse but definitely much more balanced striker. He's got fast hands and can throw compact straight punches. This helped him control the striking exchanges in the 1st round against both Perez and Soukhamthath. Against Perez, he was able to time naked leg kicks and send a right hand at Perez's face. By the later rounds, however, Morales' striking discipline and sharpness drops off dramatically. In the 3rd round of the Perez fight he was drunk off fatigue and throwing off-balanced and weak punches. In the Soukhamtath fight, he couldn't do much but put up a high guard, resulting in Soukhamthath spamming about 10 strikes (left hooks and knees) to Morales' gut.

Morales is hittable, and gets tagged with some pretty hard shots in all of his fights. Despite this, he was only finished by Almeida who really wasn't able to shut the lights off either. It was a well placed liver shot that crumpled Morales, but his body shut off before his chin gave out. Besides a perfectly placed flying knee or head kick, it doesn't look like Lopez has the type of power to stop Morales coming forward, much less KO him.

Matching the two up, I think Morales would have a slight advantage in most exchanges. Unless Lopez intends on spamming flying knees from the get-go (a tactic which would more likely end up with him on his back rather than getting a KO), Lopez would need to do a lot of his funk striking moving backwards. He doesn't have the head movement or hand speed to stay in the pocket with Morales for very long. And a lot of his offense relies on naked kicks, which Morales has the chops to counter with punches or maybe score a takedown against.

At least this is how it might look in the 1st round. In the later rounds, both fighters become much sloppier and lose a lot of power. It's hard to tell who will be most affected. If it's Morales that's getting the worse end of it, at the very least Morales can take it to the ground. Lopez is a good scrambler and, against poor competition, has found his way to get top position against his opponents, but Rd2 of the Peterson fight is a cause for concern. Though it looked like Morales had zero wrestling abilities in his last fight against Johns, Morales has decent grappling and most likely the advantage against Lopez in that department.

Lot of question marks in this one, and even odds seems reasonable. If I had to pick, probably Morales.

Good breakdown Turbs but I'm still leaning Lopez.. Tougher, undefeated, has a chance at the finish too. Until the 0 goes I'm sticking with the undefeated fighters in the UFC..

[JIBBBY]

Brian Ortega is another undefeated fighter as well at 12-0. Has me second guessing my Cub pick to be honest now.... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Brian-Ortega-65310

Something about those undefeated UFC fighters that always make it so hard for me to bet against.. Ortega has been losing fights early on though but he pulls off the late subs to win them.. Ortega is not a dominate fighter and seems to be beatable even though he is undefeated.. So I still lean Cub but I would not be surprised at all if Ortega finished Cub late.

[UncleChael]

The Funkmaster tomorrow. Wow.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Brian Ortega is another undefeated fighter as well at 12-0. Has me second guessing my Cub pick to be honest now.... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Brian-Ortega-65310

Something about those undefeated UFC fighters that always make it so hard for me to bet against.. Ortega has been losing fights early on though but he pulls off the late subs to win them.. Ortega is not a dominate fighter and seems to be beatable even though he is undefeated.. So I still lean Cub but I would not be surprised at all if Ortega finished Cub late.

Live betting Ortega could be in play

[JIBBBY]

Live betting Ortega could be in play

Yep Hugo, the longer the fight goes the more likely Ortega could get the upset finish.. We'll have to see how the fight is going.. Live betting could certainly be the call in his fight... Agreed..

[Shagdogy]

Seeing them at weigh ins... Soukh looks much longer than Sanders, Lopez looks bigger next to Morales than I expected, and Sterling's frame dwarfs Moraes.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Check out his fight with Terrion Ware. I can send you the link.

http://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XOTU0NDczOTky.html?from=s1.8-1-1.2

It's near the end of the event.

[Shagdogy]

http://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XOTU0ND...rom=s1.8-1-1.2

It's near the end of the event.

Nice. Thank you.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Nice. Thank you.

Let me know what you think of the fight.

[Shagdogy]

Let me know what you think of the fight.

Watched it. Here's my takeaways for Sanders:

Positives: Better kicks to the body than I thought he had. Good power in left hand. Good length in his left hand. High volume with knees and elbows from clinch, or when he has opponent backed up against cage. Looks durable.

Negatives: Hand speed looks average at best. Stiffness in his strikes, particularly as he tires. Seems to lean over his front foot as he comes forward with combos, also leaving his chin high (this is only when he closes distance moving forward).

For the matchup, I'm not sure this fight changed my opinion much. I feel like I have seen both Sanders and Ware look better than they did in this fight. I think the kicks to the body early on really hurt Ware and changed the dynamic of the fight very quickly. From that point, Ware did not show good footwork when pressed backwards and allowed Sanders to walk him into the cage many times. While Sanders was aggressive and kept that pressure on, I think someone who moves a bit better will be able to stay in space more than Ware was.

I still believe that Soukh's left hand is much more fluid and crisp than anything Sanders throws, and he should have a lot of counter opportunities as Sanders reaches out over his front foot with his punches. He's not more powerful than Sanders, but both guys have proven durable. The whole fight hinges on Soukh's ability to stay in space and counter while moving backwards or sideways. If he is able to let his hands go while also using good footwork, I think he has a very good chance to land an equal if not greater number of clean shots than Sanders. I'm expecting a close decision. Soukh has been hurt by his low volume and lack of killer instinct in past fights, so it's hard to back him in a fight that will likely see a close decision, but I can't bet Sanders at these odds. For me, it's dog or pass.

[Hugo de Naranja]

He got taken down once or twice against Dodson and Sterling's a better grappler than Dodson. This is also a short turnaround for Moraes. I agree Moraes has a considerable advantage on the feet but this fight feels like a dog or pass to me.

Just rewatched this fight. Dodson had two TDs, both in R2. He had like three seconds of top control between the two. Both times Moraes used a Heel Hook attempt to get back to his feet.

[Shagdogy]

All the value on this card is on dogs IMO: Sterling, Benitez, Soukhamthath, Braga Neto... Saenz maybe.

Out of all of those, Sterling is the only one I would actually put at even or better to win. Tough card. Over pay for favorites who you think are likely to win, but more expensive than they are worth? Or spread bets out among a bunch of underdogs who you think have some value in the line, but don't actually have winning their fights?