UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Poirier (November 11, 2017)

[Hugo de Naranja]

I disagree on Nate actually. In 11 UFC fights, he has never finished anyone by strikes and has only subbed 2 guys with awful ground games (Hermanson and Thiago Santos). These guys both fight very careful now since realizing they can't take the big shots anymore (or any shot with Ferreira). Even money this fight goes to decision is low to me. Whoever can keep the acting going will win a decision here IMO. When you get beat by Elias like Ferreira just did, you are either too low work rate wise or don't have good cardio. Ferreira's work rate is low because he's scared to death to take a punch. With Nate, he'll be even more scared while Nate survived with Alvey (awful fight) and Belfort last time out. +246 on Nate NO CARDS is very tempting to me.

I like that better than Nate ML since Ferreira is much more likely to win a decision imo

[Shagdogy]

Why can't you take Ansaroff ML? I think ITD is a likely path to victory, especially by sub.

I just think it's pretty much accurate and not much value there.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I just think it's pretty much accurate and not much value there.

Fair enough

[JIBBBY]

Marlon Moraes max bet 4 figures for me. Getting offered -115 now, but closer to fight I should get even or plus money. I'm seeing large majority of action on Dodson.

I'm thinking the same.. Moraes by decision over Dodson for me... Better striker technically.. Should begin to pick Dodson apart... Dodson hard to finish so it probably goes the distance..

[Hugo de Naranja]

I'm thinking the same.. Moraes by decision over Dodson for me... Better striker technically.. Should begin to pick Dodson apart... Dodson hard to finish so it probably goes the distance..

Agreed. I think if Moraes can avoid the KO shot, he out-points Dodson with volume.

[JIBBBY]

I disagree on Nate actually. In 11 UFC fights, he has never finished anyone by strikes and has only subbed 2 guys with awful ground games (Hermanson and Thiago Santos). These guys both fight very careful now since realizing they can't take the big shots anymore (or any shot with Ferreira). Even money this fight goes to decision is low to me. Whoever can keep the acting going will win a decision here IMO. When you get beat by Elias like Ferreira just did, you are either too low work rate wise or don't have good cardio. Ferreira's work rate is low because he's scared to death to take a punch. With Nate, he'll be even more scared while Nate survived with Alvey (awful fight) and Belfort last time out. +246 on Nate NO CARDS is very tempting to me.

If the younger Nate was fighting from years ago I'd like him in this fight.. Dude is almost 39 now..

It's a young mans sport and Nate "the Great" hasn't looked very great in recent fights.. Losing to other older guys like Vitor and the slow footed Sam Alvey.. ..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Nate-Marquardt-1712

I'll take the younger Fierrera who's coming off a very tough loss to Elias in his last fight.. Expect to see a very hungry and determined fighter in Fierrera to show up... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Cezar-Ferreira-22400


If you must take Nate take him ITD.. He is or was a dynamic striker with stopping power.. So i guess you can say he has a punchers chance or sub so to speak.. To me Nate fights scared and cautious now chin protecting so I'm not even sure about this as even a hedge for me as I just think he's gonna lose..

1305 Marquardt wins inside distance

+487

Nate
Marquardt
"The Great"
vs
Cezar
Ferreira
"Mutante"

UNITED STATES
Country
BRAZIL

38-18-2
Record
12-6-0

34%
KO/TKO
33%

37%
SUB
25%

29%
DEC
42%

72 in
Height
73 in

185 lbs
Weight
185 lbs

74 in
Reach
78 in

42 in
Leg Reach
43 in

[JIBBBY]

Agreed. I think if Moraes can avoid the KO shot, he out-points Dodson with volume.

Dodson does have some power in his hands so like you say we hope Moraes can avoid the KO shot.. This is still a hedge option I'm considering against the Moreas decision prop..

1633 Dodson wins by TKO/KO

+500

1607 Moraes wins by 3 round decision

+180

[TPowell]

Can Marquardt win by anything other than KO?

Think he could win a decision for sure. Ferreira's chin is worse than Nate's and he is content to do nothing a lot of the time to protect himself.

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 120: Poirier vs. Pettis Picks:
Karl Roberson Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Marcel Fortuna Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Sean Strickland Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Nina Ansaroff Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Sage Northcutt Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Tatiana Suarez Round 1 Submission (Armbar)
Marlon Moraes Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Clay Guida Majority Decision (29-28 x2, 28-28)
Raphael Assuncao Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Cezar Ferreira Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Junior Albini Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Matt Brown Round 1 KO (Punches)
Dustin Poirier Unanimous Decision (49-46 x2, 48-47)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 120: Poirier vs. Pettis

Fight Pass Prelims:

Fight #1: Roberson (DEBUT) vs. Stewart
Roberson ITD (+110) .5u
Roberson+Stewart Won’t Start Round 2 (+176) .5u

Fight #2: Fortuna vs. Collier
No Bet

Fight #3: Strickland vs. McGee
Strickland Decision (+130) 1u

Hedge:
McGee Decision (+600) .5u

Fox Sports 1 Prelims:

Fight #4: Ansaroff vs. Hill
Ansaroff (+165) 2u
Ansaroff ITD (+560) .5u

Fight #5: Northcutt vs. Quinones
Northcutt Submission (+685) .5u

Fight #6: Suarez vs. Pereira
Suarez Submission (+296) 1u

Hedge:
Pereira (+250) 1u

Fight #7: Dodson vs. Moraes
Moraes (+100) 2u
Moraes Decision (+170) 1u

Hedge:
Dodson KO/TKO (+515) 1u

Main Card:

Fight #8: Lauzon vs. Guida
Lauzon ITD (+294) .5u
Lauzon Round 1 (+500) .5u
Guida Round 3 (+1800) .25u
Lauzon+Guida Draw (+7500) 1u

Fight #9: Assuncao vs. Lopez
Lopez Round 1 (+1575) .5u

Fight #10: Ferreira vs. Marquardt
Ferreira Decision (+160) 1u

Hedge:
Marquardt KO/TKO (+550) .5u

Fight #11: Albini vs. Arlovski
Parlays

Fight #12: Brown vs. Sanchez
Brown+Sanchez Under 2.5 (-110) 2.2u to win 2u
Sanchez Round 3 (+2050) .25u

Fight #13: Poirier vs. Pettis
Poirier (+105) 1u
Poirier KO/TKO (+325) 1u
Poirier Unanimous Decision (+565) 1u

Hedge(s):
Pettis Round 1 (+400) .5u
Pettis Submission (+403) .5u

Straight Parlays:
Ferreira/Albini (+112) 1u
Assuncao+Lopez Over 2.5/Ferreira+Marquardt Over 1.5 (+138) 2u

Prop Parlays:
Roberson+Stewart U2.5/Fortuna ITD/Strickland+McGee GD (+498) .25u
Moraes/Guida/Assuncao -3.5 (+512) .25u
Ansaroff/Northcutt+Quinones WGD/Suarez+Pereira WGD (+902) .25u
Ferreira Decision/Albini ITD/Brown ITD/Poirier (+1352) .25u

Full Card Props:
Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+252) 1u
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+595) .5u
Poirier+Pettis FOTN (+350) .5u
Lauzon+Guida FOTN (+700) .5u

Multi-Event Parlays:
Strickland+McGee Over 2.5/Open (+xxx) 2u

[Shagdogy]

There has been very little line movement on this card. Lines are just staying perfectly put.

After I said I didn't see many playable lines, I went and made a bunch of bets. Poor discipline? Yeah probably a little, but I haven't had any disastrous nights in a long time, but the chips just haven't quite fallen right either. I'm being optimistic here and just betting all my leans trusting that this is the night the fights play out favorably. Hope it doesn't backfire.

[TPowell]

Seems like Hugo didn't have any big plays either (all less than 2 units). I really like Suarez. Hoping my tape study turns a possible loser into a winner. My goal is to NOT play the main event. I tend to get undisciplined and bet it no matter what to end the night but I have no clue on this fight and nobody has gave me any good reason on either side all week really.

[Shagdogy]

Seems like Hugo didn't have any big plays either (all less than 2 units). I really like Suarez. Hoping my tape study turns a possible loser into a winner. My goal is to NOT play the main event. I tend to get undisciplined and bet it no matter what to end the night but I have no clue on this fight and nobody has gave me any good reason on either side all week really.

I like Poirier in every area but chin and maybe cardio, but those are big concerns in a 5 rounder.

[Shagdogy]

Seems like Hugo didn't have any big plays either (all less than 2 units). I really like Suarez. Hoping my tape study turns a possible loser into a winner. My goal is to NOT play the main event. I tend to get undisciplined and bet it no matter what to end the night but I have no clue on this fight and nobody has gave me any good reason on either side all week really.

Have her in two parlays. I'm with you. I hope my parlays play out and don't waste a winner in Suarez.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I like Poirier in every area but chin and maybe cardio, but those are big concerns in a 5 rounder.

Where do the Poirier cardio concerns come from?

[Sanity Check]

Where do the Poirier cardio concerns come from?

I would guess the way Pettis faded when he fought Max Holloway.

People might forget that was at 145 lbs, though.

[Hugo de Naranja]

30-27 Assuncao for his fight with Moraes has to be one of the worst scorecards of the year. 16/17 media members had it for Moraes and the only media member who had it for Assuncao had it 29-28.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I would guess the way Pettis faded when he fought Max Holloway.

People might forget that was at 145 lbs, though.

I'm talking about Poirier though. I think he has better cardio than Pettis but Shaggy disagrees.

[Shagdogy]

Where do the Poirier cardio concerns come from?

Only that I think Pettis does a better job of conserving his energy. He doesn't throw his strikes as hard and he probably won't have to work as hard to wobble Poirier. I worry about Poirier potentially punching himself out.

[Shagdogy]

I'm talking about Poirier though. I think he has better cardio than Pettis but Shaggy disagrees.

Yah... I'm kind of with you. Better cardio but his own pace and hunting for the KO could catch up to him. That was my only concern there.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Only that I think Pettis does a better job of conserving his energy. He doesn't throw his strikes as hard and he probably won't have to work as hard to wobble Poirier. I worry about Poirier potentially punching himself out.

That could happen.

[JIBBBY]

Going with Karl Robertson straight in this first fight.. Paying the - odds..

Good luck everyone iiiiiit's timmmmeee!!!!

[Shagdogy]

Ok here's my card. I started out disciplined and then at some point said screw it's let's gamble tonight:

Roberson -215, 2.15u
McGee/Strickland o2.5 -225, 2.25u
Ansaroff +160, 1u
Dodson -113, 1.13u
Guida by dec +160, 1.5u
Lauzon rd 1 +500, .5u
Lauzon rd 2 +700, .5u
Lopez +270, 1u
Fortuna/Suarez/Arlovski-Albini o1.5 +350, 1u
Suarez/Brown -140, 1.4u

[Karmaphobia]

Did the fights (fightpass) get delayed by half an hour?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Did the fights (fightpass) get delayed by half an hour?

Yes. Apparently some sort of setup issue at the venue.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Ok here's my card. I started out disciplined and then at some point said screw it's let's gamble tonight:

Roberson -215, 2.15u
McGee/Strickland o2.5 -225, 2.25u
Ansaroff +160, 1u
Dodson -113, 1.13u
Guida by dec +160, 1.5u
Lauzon rd 1 +500, .5u
Lauzon rd 2 +700, .5u
Lopez +270, 1u
Fortuna/Suarez/Arlovski-Albini o1.5 +350, 1u
Suarez/Brown -140, 1.4u

We're head to head on Dodson/Moraes but otherwise best of luck my friend!

[Karmaphobia]

Sorry, new here.

Money on Ansaroff ftw, and NM/CF itd.

Anybody knows anything about the fightpass start time???

Thx

[JIBBBY]

Did the fights (fightpass) get delayed by half an hour?

Should start in ten minutes.. Half hour delay start time.. Happens alot..

[Hugo de Naranja]

Sounds like Paul Felder is commentating. I like it!

[Hugo de Naranja]

Roberson R1 works!

[JIBBBY]

That works.. .. Karl is tough..

Fortuna ITD next hopefully..

[Shagdogy]

Wow. Very impressed by Roberson. The strength in the clinch and that throw straight to mount and back.. patience to work that choke. Very nice.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Added:
Moraes ITD (+500) .5u
Lauzon KO/TKO (+700) .25u

[Hugo de Naranja]

Wow. Very impressed by Roberson. The strength in the clinch and that throw straight to mount and back.. patience to work that choke. Very nice.

Thought about taking Roberson Sub even though I picked KO/TKO (a la Golm vs. Colombo) but not quite enough value at (+628). I missed that it spiked to (+1067) not long before the fight started.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I highly doubt Collier can maintain this pace.