DWTNCS: Week 6

**turbozed** · 08-14-17, 11:15 PM

Just got back from Bali so haven't gotten a chance to look at this one at all. Will try to do some capping tonight. Anyone have any thoughts so far?

**Rich Benjamins** · 08-14-17, 11:19 PM

I still gotta watch some fights. I watched a lot of Wallace and Byrd fights. And I have to say, Wallace is like the white version of Byrd. The two have almost exactly the same fighting styles and abilities. They both go for leg kicks, both have mid-level boxing skills. Both have a strong grappling/ground game. Byrd is more explosive, so I think you gotta go with him as the favorite. But at -200, don't think you can bet on him. I'm not sure.

**Shagdogy** · 08-15-17, 05:06 AM

Grant Dawson looks like Joe Lauzon with a gas tank. His striking D is awful but he doesn't care and walks forward through anything. His pressure and pace are relentless. His top game is all about constant work, damage, and sub. At 23, I like this kid. Sloppy but not at all afraid. He will most definitely eat some shots from Diaz, but will Diaz stop him? Doubt it. Dawson's only loss is a TKO where he wasn't actually out. Bad ref stoppage. I think he takes he share of shots in a high paced fight until Diaz wilts and Dawson takes over. He's +155 and climbing and will def see a play from me.

**Rich Benjamins** · 08-15-17, 11:24 AM

I like Olson. +210 seems very high. I watched one of Karl Reed's fights, he seemed a little wobbly on the feet, not very fast. Olson has good takedown offense. He could get openings, push Reed into the cage and get takedowns.

**JIBBBY** · 08-15-17, 11:44 AM

Tempted to play this, we'll see? I may try it again....

Here you go Shag..

Dana White's Contender Series 6 - Middleweight 3 rounds - UFC Training Centre - Las Vegas, Nevada - UFC Fight Pass
Tue 8/15	1001 Randall Wallace	+180	o1½ -125
10:00PM	1002 Charles Byrd	-220	u1½ +105
Dana White's Contender Series 6 - Featherweight 3 rounds - UFC Training Centre - Las Vegas, Nevada - UFC Fight Pass
Tue 8/15	1101 Grant Dawson	+145	o1½ -130
9:30PM	1102 Adrian Diaz	-165	u1½ +110
Dana White's Contender Series 6 - Light Heavyweight 3 rounds - UFC Training Centre - Las Vegas, Nevada - UFC Fight Pass
Tue 8/15	1201 Karl Reed	-250	o1½ -145
9:00PM	1202 Cameron Olson	+210	u1½ +125
Dana White's Contender Series 6 - Flyweight 3 rounds - UFC Training Centre - Las Vegas, Nevada - UFC Fight Pass
Tue 8/15	1301 Martin Day	+158	o1½ -140
8:30PM	1302 Jaime Alvarez	-180	u1½ +120
Dana White's Contender Series 6 - Strawweight 3 rounds - UFC Training Centre - Las Vegas, Nevada - UFC Fight Pass
Tue 8/15	1401 Jamie Colleen	-145	o1½ -180
8:00PM	1402 Tiffany Masters	+125	u1½ +158

**Shagdogy** · 08-15-17, 01:22 PM

Originally posted by Rich Benjamins

I like Olson. +210 seems very high. I watched one of Karl Reed's fights, he seemed a little wobbly on the feet, not very fast. Olson has good takedown offense. He could get openings, push Reed into the cage and get takedowns.

Ever seen Reed on his back? I haven't, and he has had top position via offensive wrestling in every fight I could find. Just cause he's got that Karate style doesn't mean he's an incomplete grappler. He actually looks very strong. I don't think Olson wants to shoot under Reed and get stuck under his spraw trying to work out. I like Reed.

**Rich Benjamins** · 08-15-17, 01:29 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Ever seen Reed on his back? I haven't, and he has had top position via offensive wrestling in every fight I could find. Just cause he's got that Karate style doesn't mean he's an incomplete grappler. He actually looks very strong. I don't think Olson wants to shoot under Reed and get stuck under his spraw trying to work out. I like Reed.

I could only find one fight with Reed, and no he wasn't on his back but a good takedown artist like Olson could probably do it. But we'll see, Reed is -250 for a reason.

**Shagdogy** · 08-15-17, 01:37 PM

Originally posted by turbozed

Just got back from Bali so haven't gotten a chance to look at this one at all. Will try to do some capping tonight. Anyone have any thoughts so far?

Tough life eh? I like Dawson and Day as dogs. Colleen, Reed, Byrd for favs. Hard to really cap the Colleen fight but Masters had a LOT of ground to make up from the old fights you can see of her so I'm gonna play small that she didn't cover all that ground. Colleen is solid if not a killer.

Reed and Byrd could find themselves in a parlay for me, maybe with an O/U. We'll see.

**Shagdogy** · 08-15-17, 02:18 PM

Originally posted by Rich Benjamins

I could only find one fight with Reed, and no he wasn't on his back but a good takedown artist like Olson could probably do it. But we'll see, Reed is -250 for a reason.

I watched at least 3. Some amateur but they aren't that old. Olson is definitely a high pressure wrestler but if he's not successful with the takedown he's in trouble.

**Rich Benjamins** · 08-15-17, 02:22 PM

Originally posted by turbozed

Just got back from Bali so haven't gotten a chance to look at this one at all. Will try to do some capping tonight. Anyone have any thoughts so far?

What do you think so far, Turbozed? Hey, nice Koscheck pic! haha

**PaperTrail07** · 08-15-17, 02:42 PM

On Colleen..... More speed More tested

**PaperTrail07** · 08-15-17, 02:46 PM

Also like the over OLSEN AND REED....Olsen can drag this over 1.5 you would think.....Grapple City

**Shagdogy** · 08-15-17, 03:51 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

Also like the over OLSEN AND REED....Olsen can drag this over 1.5 you would think.....Grapple City

Hard to disagree.

**Shagdogy** · 08-15-17, 03:54 PM

Money coming in on Wallace and Dawson. Big moves on Dawson from +135 to -157 on my book. Glad I got in early there.

I wonder why the movement for Wallace? I admit I haven't capped that fight but I know I like what I've seen of Byrd.

**Rich Benjamins** · 08-15-17, 04:20 PM

Wallace is pretty badass. Have you seen his fights? I swear he's like the white version of Byrd.

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Money coming in on Wallace and Dawson. Big moves on Dawson from +135 to -157 on my book. Glad I got in early there.

I wonder why the movement for Wallace? I admit I haven't capped that fight but I know I like what I've seen of Byrd.

**brooks85** · 08-15-17, 04:25 PM

DWTNCS

my first thought was this was connected to dancing with the stars somehow

**Shagdogy** · 08-15-17, 04:29 PM

Originally posted by Rich Benjamins

Wallace is pretty badass. Have you seen his fights? I swear he's like the white version of Byrd.

Nope. Haven't capped this one. May not get to it. Isn't Wallace on pretty late notice?

**Rich Benjamins** · 08-15-17, 04:32 PM

Good call on Dawson. He could take this with his grappling and subs.

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Money coming in on Wallace and Dawson. Big moves on Dawson from +135 to -157 on my book. Glad I got in early there.

I wonder why the movement for Wallace? I admit I haven't capped that fight but I know I like what I've seen of Byrd.

**Rich Benjamins** · 08-15-17, 04:37 PM

I can see that. Another interesting one is ov 1.5 at -185 for Colleen/Masters. They each have a lot of finishes, but i think they're each probably good enough to defend the other.

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

Also like the over OLSEN AND REED....Olsen can drag this over 1.5 you would think.....Grapple City

**Rich Benjamins** · 08-15-17, 04:47 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Nope. Haven't capped this one. May not get to it. Isn't Wallace on pretty late notice?

Late notice, but Wallace just had a fight earlier this month. They had another guy on short notice who just finished a fight 11 days earlier, he won convincingly and got a contract. So I expect Wallace to be in top shape.

**Shagdogy** · 08-15-17, 07:01 PM

Originally posted by Rich Benjamins

Late notice, but Wallace just had a fight earlier this month. They had another guy on short notice who just finished a fight 11 days earlier, he won convincingly and got a contract. So I expect Wallace to be in top shape.

I've come around to Wallace. I think this is more of a 50/50 fight or possibly even Wallace should be a slight favorite. Byrd is a bit more athletic and smoother on the feet than Wallace but he is prone to being outworked on the ground. Wallace keeps high pace and pressure and while his takedowns aren't great, he will pressure Byrd to the cage and likely win scrambles, and has a good shot at putting him on his back by catching a kick. Wallace also seems to get stronger as the fight gets deeper. I like Wallace a little bit here. My capping is very incomplete so I'm not sure if I'll play anything.

**Sanity Check** · 08-15-17, 07:05 PM

Is Adrian Diaz related to the Diaz brothers?

He's from stockton.

**dvb02** · 08-15-17, 07:08 PM

anyone have a stream with faber and snoop dog?

**Shagdogy** · 08-15-17, 07:09 PM

Here we go:

Dawson +135, 1.5u
Day +145, .66u
Colleen -150, 1u
Parlay: Reed + Masters/Colleen o1.5, +102, 1.33u

That's it for now. Let's have another fun Tuesday!

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-15-17, 07:12 PM

Sitting this one out but best of luck to anyone with bets tonight!

**dvb02** · 08-15-17, 07:12 PM

Originally posted by dvb02

anyone have a stream with faber and snoop dog?

never mind.....got it

I like your parlay Shag I am on it as well

**Rich Benjamins** · 08-15-17, 07:24 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Here we go:

Dawson +135, 1.5u
Day +145, .66u
Colleen -150, 1u
Parlay: Reed + Masters/Colleen o1.5, +102, 1.33u

That's it for now. Let's have another fun Tuesday!

We got the over, Shag. Think that was a no brainer. You don't see an over 1.5 too often with chicks, that line was a mistake.

**Rich Benjamins** · 08-15-17, 07:25 PM

All the o/u are 1.5 rounds. I wonder why if that's a constant thing on this series.

**Shagdogy** · 08-15-17, 07:32 PM

WOOOOOO!!! I was worried I was in break even mode on this fight and then Colleen pulls out ANOTHER late stoppage win. Boom.

**spurginobili** · 08-15-17, 07:32 PM

That was an impressive comeback...have Colleen in a parlay

**Shagdogy** · 08-15-17, 07:43 PM

Originally posted by Rich Benjamins

All the o/u are 1.5 rounds. I wonder why if that's a constant thing on this series.

It has been a trend given the format which forces fighters to go out looking to impress. Last week had a lot of 2.5's but for the most part this series has been set at O/U 1.5 across the board.

**Shagdogy** · 08-15-17, 07:45 PM

Taking another stab on the Hawaiian underdog here. Didn't pay off last time in a close fight. Let's see if Day can get it done.

**spurginobili** · 08-15-17, 07:45 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Taking another stab on the Hawaiian underdog here. Didn't pay off last time in a close fight. Let's see if Day can get it done.

Same here...let's go Day!

**Shagdogy** · 08-15-17, 07:52 PM

Showed some fight at the end of the round but looks like Day was the wrong side in this one... This fight looks like a tornado on the feet, spinning spinning spinning... Alvarez is so obviously moving to his right to avoid the spinning kicks that these guys are constantly moving in a circle.