The Ultimate Fighter Finale: Johnson vs. Gaethje (July 07, 2017)

**Shagdogy** · 07-04-17, 11:17 AM

Michael Johnson, Jordan Johnson, and maybe Tavares?

**turbozed** · 07-04-17, 12:11 PM

Lol wtf, bestfightodds showing MIchael Johnson opening as a +193 dog and Gaethje at -240. Who the hell set those lines? Damn should've checked earlier today.

**Shagdogy** · 07-04-17, 12:47 PM

Originally posted by turbozed

Lol wtf, bestfightodds showing MIchael Johnson opening as a +193 dog and Gaethje at -240. Who the hell set those lines? Damn should've checked earlier today.

I saw that. Couldn't believe it.

**Demonata** · 07-04-17, 01:18 PM

Any locks you guys think? I'm gaving trouble with this card...

**Rich Benjamins** · 07-04-17, 01:21 PM

My most confident picks are Michael Johnson, Ishihara, Hill, and Tavares/Theodoru over.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 07-04-17, 01:22 PM

Originally posted by turbozed

Lol wtf, bestfightodds showing MIchael Johnson opening as a +193 dog and Gaethje at -240. Who the hell set those lines? Damn should've checked earlier today.

That was on Pinnacle. I was able to get Johnson (-110) on 5Ds

**firekillex** · 07-04-17, 01:23 PM

Originally posted by Demonata

Any locks you guys think? I'm gaving trouble with this card...

angela hill almost a lock imo
thoughts?

**firekillex** · 07-04-17, 01:24 PM

looks like im only one on justin gaetjhe at dog money

**turbozed** · 07-04-17, 01:33 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Michael Johnson, Jordan Johnson, and maybe Tavares?

Also surprised that Tavares is the dog here. Theodorou never looks too impressive with his best win against a very flatfooted and lazy Alvey. He was gifted a decision in Canada against Mutante. His striking style doesn't seem like it will work against a guy like Tavares who has fast hands and good kicks. I don't see him taking Tavares down consistently, or holding Tavares down even if he does get a takedown. Tavares has the boxing and power advantage.

I think people's opinions of Tavares have been influenced by recent KO losses but Theodorou is no Whittaker or Boetsch when it comes to power. Theodorou also has his popularity going for him. Bottom line is Tavares is undervalued and Theodorou is overvalued. +140 seems like a pretty decent price.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 07-04-17, 02:28 PM

Went big on Aspen Ladd at (-135). 5.4u to win 4u. Think she wrecks 1-4-1NC Jessica Eye

**firekillex** · 07-04-17, 02:37 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Went big on Aspen Ladd at (-135). 5.4u to win 4u. Think she wrecks 1-4-1NC Jessica Eye

thats your lock of card? eyes last 5-6 fights were all against fairly solid competition

**Shagdogy** · 07-04-17, 02:55 PM

Originally posted by firekillex

thats your lock of card? eyes last 5-6 fights were all against fairly solid competition

I will never call a girl fight with any large amount of confidence. They're so hard to call. For me, best bets are Johnson and Johnson. Thinking about just parlaying the two and calling it a day.

**Shagdogy** · 07-04-17, 02:56 PM

Originally posted by Rich Benjamins

My most confident picks are Michael Johnson, Ishihara, Hill, and Tavares/Theodoru over.

Don't disagree with any of your picks but I hate the lines for Ishihara and Tavares/Theodoru over.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 07-04-17, 03:06 PM

Originally posted by firekillex

thats your lock of card? eyes last 5-6 fights were all against fairly solid competition

Had my eye on Ladd for awhile and I think Eye is a bum. Gets outwrestled by anyone who tries and can even lose in her favored range of striking.

**Demonata** · 07-04-17, 03:37 PM

Originally posted by firekillex

looks like im only one on justin gaetjhe at dog money

I like him he's tough as hell.and fights like if he loses he dies lol

**Rich Benjamins** · 07-04-17, 04:18 PM

It is frustrating that Ishihara keeps inching up. The Tavares/Theodoru over isn't bad up to around -400. The amount of decisions those guys have and how defensive they both fight is off the charts.

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Don't disagree with any of your picks but I hate the lines for Ishihara and Tavares/Theodoru over.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 07-04-17, 04:20 PM

Originally posted by Demonata

I like him he's tough as hell.and fights like if he loses he dies lol

Gaethje is a pure action fighter if I've ever seen one.

**Shagdogy** · 07-04-17, 04:52 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Gaethje is a pure action fighter if I've ever seen one.

But total disregard for himself. Zero defense.

**Shagdogy** · 07-04-17, 06:36 PM

Starting to think Ishihara might be worth paying for. He's at a ripe age for improvement, has been with Alpha Male wrestling with Clay Guida who looks like he's still relentless with it, and he's a longer southpaw with more powerful strikes. A lot of good factors in his favor.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 07-04-17, 06:49 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Starting to think Ishihara might be worth paying for. He's at a ripe age for improvement, has been with Alpha Male wrestling with Clay Guida who looks like he's still relentless with it, and he's a longer southpaw with more powerful strikes. A lot of good factors in his favor.

I think Maynard is totally shot so I can understand people putting big money on Ishihara but I don't think he's anything special. Good power and counterstriking but not much else. Lost clearly to Artem Lobov.

On a side note, my personal capping style is to not anticipate improvements but to note them when they actually happen. Look at someone like Erick Silva. There was all this talk about how he would be the next big thing because he was a finisher and would have time to improve. It turns out that people never really saw the improvements they expected. Just a bit of food for thought.

**Shagdogy** · 07-04-17, 07:56 PM

Fortuna just doesn't have good TDD. Why is the line moving in his favor? 3:1 seemed right for Johnson IMO.

**UncleChael** · 07-04-17, 08:30 PM

Justin Gaethje easy..

**Hugo de Naranja** · 07-04-17, 08:42 PM

Originally posted by UncleChael

Justin Gaethje easy..

Any analysis behind this?

**Rich Benjamins** · 07-04-17, 09:59 PM

I like Ishihara. I heard somewhere that he banged a chick right before his fight with Lobov. I think he totally underestimated him, and overestimated himself. Now, Ishihara is probably working his ass off to make sure this one is a win. I saw some of his pics on twitter, where he's bulking up. He does look bigger!

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Starting to think Ishihara might be worth paying for. He's at a ripe age for improvement, has been with Alpha Male wrestling with Clay Guida who looks like he's still relentless with it, and he's a longer southpaw with more powerful strikes. A lot of good factors in his favor.

**firekillex** · 07-04-17, 10:15 PM

thats one ugly ass knee

**UncleChael** · 07-04-17, 10:23 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Any analysis behind this?

14 KOs. Heavy hands and leg kicks. Undefeated World Champion. First fight in the UFC and he's main eventing.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 07-04-17, 10:40 PM

Originally posted by UncleChael

14 KOs. Heavy hands and leg kicks. Undefeated World Champion. First fight in the UFC and he's main eventing.

Fair enough.

**Rich Benjamins** · 07-04-17, 10:45 PM

Is it a negative for Gray Maynard, that he's only tweeted a couple times this year, hasn't tweeted since April. And I don't see anything whatsoever of him on social media or any articles about him? I see in 2016 he tweeted quite a bit. Does this mean he's on his way to quitting the sport, and should have a bad performance? I'd think probably. Unless he's holed himself up in a private gym and is training like crazy in private in order to surprise everyone.

**firekillex** · 07-04-17, 11:30 PM

Originally posted by Rich Benjamins

Is it a negative for Gray Maynard, that he's only tweeted a couple times this year, hasn't tweeted since April. And I don't see anything whatsoever of him on social media or any articles about him? I see in 2016 he tweeted quite a bit. Does this mean he's on his way to quitting the sport, and should have a bad performance? I'd think probably. Unless he's holed himself up in a private gym and is training like crazy in private in order to surprise everyone.

huhhh

what does tweeting or social media have anything to do with an mma fighters performance lol

**Rich Benjamins** · 07-04-17, 11:57 PM

It's about buildup into the fight, and where the fighter's head is at. You can get some hints from it. I've gotten a lot of good information about fighters by their interviews and how they carry themselves. Or if they're training with certain people and tweet about it, shows enthusiasm for the game. A prime example: Ronda Rousey hardly did any social media in front of her fight vs Nunes. You saw the result there. That was a part of the puzzle of her head not being there.

Originally posted by firekillex

huhhh

what does tweeting or social media have anything to do with an mma fighters performance lol

**firekillex** · 07-05-17, 12:00 AM

Originally posted by Rich Benjamins

It's about buildup into the fight, and where the fighter's head is at. You can get some hints from it. I've gotten a lot of good information about fighters by their interviews and how they carry themselves. Or if they're training with certain people and tweet about it, shows enthusiasm for the game. A prime example: Ronda Rousey hardly did any social media in front of her fight vs Nunes. You saw the result there. That was a part of the puzzle of her head not being there.

dont agree with that stuff at all imo means nothing, nunes just has way more mma skills then rousey it had nothing to do with media. People have different personalities you can never take smiling at weigh ins, social media into account and say its the same for every person, some people like to be secluded during fight time, some like to have fun its different for everybody. Maynard has been at the end of his career for a while now , being inactive on twitter makes no difference on that, tweets wont give him superpowers to win or lose
d

**Rich Benjamins** · 07-05-17, 12:05 AM

I don't see it. I think it was a mistake for the UFC to put Gaetje vs Johnson on his first fight. He could look really bad. Unless I'm missing something.

Did you watch Gatjhe's last fight? He was getting hit a lot by Luiz Firmino. If he gets hit a lot by that guy, imagine what Johnson would do to him. Maybe Gaetje had an off night. Gaethje won a split decision vs Melvin Guillard. He also had competitive matches vs Luis Palomino. Johnson would smoke those fools. He's been up against much tougher competition.

Originally posted by UncleChael

14 KOs. Heavy hands and leg kicks. Undefeated World Champion. First fight in the UFC and he's main eventing.

**Rich Benjamins** · 07-05-17, 02:52 AM

[QUOTE=firekillex;27066787]dont agree with that stuff at all imo means nothing, nunes just has way more mma skills then rousey it had nothing to do with media. People have different personalities you can never take smiling at weigh ins, social media into account and say its the same for every person, some people like to be secluded during fight time, some like to have fun its different for everybody. Maynard has been at the end of his career for a while now , being inactive on twitter makes no difference on that, tweets wont give him superpowers to win or lose

It's clearly a case by case basis. But us as MMA bettors, how can we know what kind of shape a fighter is in (mentally and physically) if they don't engage in interviews or social media? If we dont' have any recent info about a fighter other than his last fight, then we don't know if they've found a new passion for the sport, or if this will be their last fight and they're just doing it to get a paycheck. We don't know whether they slacked off in their training camp or not. All we have to see is how they looked at their weigh-ins and try to use that info.

**PaperTrail07** · 07-05-17, 12:21 PM

Pumped for this weekend

I know I took Glover and hated on the GUY....BUT....Killa Gorilla Gets the W here...