UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos 2 (May 13, 2017)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Pay Per View 10:00 pm ET
Stipe Miocic vs Junior dos Santos (for Heavyweight title)
Joanna Jeddrejczyk vs Jessica Andrade (for Strawweight title)
Demian Maia vs Jorge Masvidal
Frankie Edgar vs Yair Rodriduez
Henry Cejudo vs Sergio Pettis

FX 08:00 pm ET
Eddie Alvarez vs Dustin Poirier
Chas Skelly vs Jason Knight
Krzysztof Jotko vs David Branch
Marco Polo Reyes vs James Vick

UFC Fight Pass 07:00 pm ET
Jessica Aguilar vs Cortney Casey
Gabriel Benitez vs Enrique Barzola

[Hugo de Naranja]

Awesome card. Glad we have a few weeks between events so I can do TONS of tape study here.

[firekillex]

best card of the year so far imo

some early leans i like :
Andrade +150 dog money i think shes the biggest threat to JJ so far
Edgar -170 id like for the decision prop if the value is solid
Maia -120 is a solid line ill most likely take a shot at the submission prop if its juicy enough ( thought hed be at -150 range )
Alvarez vs porier is a super tough fight , i think whoever wins is by decision ... most likely play the o2.5 here
Cejudo decision if the value is right i will like as well


jotko vs branch great fight as well... darkhorse fight on the card

[Hugo de Naranja]

best card of the year so far imo

some early leans i like :
Andrade +150 dog money i think shes the biggest threat to JJ so far
Edgar -170 id like for the decision prop if the value is solid
Maia -120 is a solid line ill most likely take a shot at the submission prop if its juicy enough ( thought hed be at -150 range )
Alvarez vs porier is a super tough fight , i think whoever wins is by decision ... most likely play the o2.5 here
Cejudo decision if the value is right i will like as well


jotko vs branch great fight as well... darkhorse fight on the card

I lean the same way on all of these except Alvarez/Poirier

[firekillex]

I lean the same way on all of these except Alvarez/Poirier

both guys could be considered "chinny" but i think Alvarez may come out less aggressive then normal after getting dismanteled against mcgregor .... both matchup extremely even IMO , i could see either guy winning tbh

who you leaning ?

[Hugo de Naranja]

both guys could be considered "chinny" but i think Alvarez may come out less aggressive then normal after getting dismanteled against mcgregor .... both matchup extremely even IMO , i could see either guy winning tbh

who you leaning ?

Lean Poirier ITD, probably KO/TKO

[GoBlue77]

I'm going LARGE on dos santos. been waiting for this fight

[firekillex]

he barely squeaked by Miocic the first time and hes stayed at the same level or some people would say he has regressed while Miocic has only gotten better.... not a good spot to go large imo

its heavyweight and both guys have big power so anything could happen but i dont like going large on HW strikers with KO power way to sketch for me but GL

[Squareguy]

I love Masvidal, but I think this is a bad matchup for him. Not confident that he will be subbed, but I think he needs an early KO to win.

[rsynweap84]

5/13/2017 11:30 PM UFC Fighting 1101 Jessica Andrade* +150 vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk 5/13/2017 11:00 PM UFC Fighting 1202 Demian Maia* -130 vs Jorge Masvidal 5/13/2017 11:59 PM MMA Props Fighting 1041 Miocic wins by TKO/KO* +114 vs Any other result

Risking $100.00 To Win $846.54

This is my only play for 211 atm, gotta lock it in before Maia gets any higher.

EDIT: Done.

436175117-1	4/16/17 6:33pm	$100.00	$846.54	Pending	3 Team Parlay
				Pending	5/13/17 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1101 Jessica Andrade +150* vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk
				Pending	5/13/17 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1202 Demian Maia -130* vs Jorge Masvidal
				Pending	5/13/17 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1041 Miocic wins by TKO/KO +114* vs Any other result

[Teem]

5/13/2017 11:30 PM UFC Fighting 1101 Jessica Andrade* +150 vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk 5/13/2017 11:00 PM UFC Fighting 1202 Demian Maia* -130 vs Jorge Masvidal 5/13/2017 11:59 PM MMA Props Fighting 1041 Miocic wins by TKO/KO* +114 vs Any other result

Risking $100.00 To Win $846.54

This is my only play for 211 atm, gotta lock it in before Maia gets any higher.

EDIT: Done.

436175117-1	4/16/17 6:33pm	$100.00	$846.54	Pending	3 Team Parlay
				Pending	5/13/17 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1101 Jessica Andrade +150* vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk
				Pending	5/13/17 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1202 Demian Maia -130* vs Jorge Masvidal
				Pending	5/13/17 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1041 Miocic wins by TKO/KO +114* vs Any other result

What site do you use to bet with?

[Hugo de Naranja]

5/13/2017 11:30 PM UFC Fighting 1101 Jessica Andrade* +150 vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk 5/13/2017 11:00 PM UFC Fighting 1202 Demian Maia* -130 vs Jorge Masvidal 5/13/2017 11:59 PM MMA Props Fighting 1041 Miocic wins by TKO/KO* +114 vs Any other result

Risking $100.00 To Win $846.54

This is my only play for 211 atm, gotta lock it in before Maia gets any higher.

EDIT: Done.

436175117-1	4/16/17 6:33pm	$100.00	$846.54	Pending	3 Team Parlay
				Pending	5/13/17 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1101 Jessica Andrade +150* vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk
				Pending	5/13/17 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1202 Demian Maia -130* vs Jorge Masvidal
				Pending	5/13/17 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1041 Miocic wins by TKO/KO +114* vs Any other result

On all three myself. Let's cash this shit!

[rsynweap84]

What site do you use to bet with?

5Dimes

[rsynweap84]

best card of the year so far imo

some early leans i like :
Andrade +150 dog money i think shes the biggest threat to JJ so far
Edgar -170 id like for the decision prop if the value is solid
Maia -120 is a solid line ill most likely take a shot at the submission prop if its juicy enough ( thought hed be at -150 range )
Alvarez vs porier is a super tough fight , i think whoever wins is by decision ... most likely play the o2.5 here
Cejudo decision if the value is right i will like as well


jotko vs branch great fight as well... darkhorse fight on the card

Definitely on Andrade, been wanting to see her fight JJ ever since she stepped down from bantam weight. Was a bit worried about her striking, but her dominant stand-up performance over Angela Hill put to rest that worry. Angela herself looks like a very good match-up for JJ, wouldn't mind seeing them go at it, but as far as the ground game goes, Andrade not only has the advantage, but also the strength that JJ hasn't faced on the ground, Andrade is built like a tank at 115 pounds.

Also solid on Maia, he won't have Masdival on striking but he has a much more dominant ground game. Dunno if he can get the sub, but confident he can get the decision, so long as the fight goes to the ground.

Liking Edgar for the decision as well, so long as he don't take one of them Yair kicks to the head.

Alvarez/Poirier I ain't makin' no call on yet.

I am liking ma' boy Knight, not so much to beat Skelly. This fight might be exciting or boring, but every time Knight fights they slap him with dog status and damned if he hasn't made them pay for it. Kinda excited to see if they do the same here, this guy is one of my most profitable dogs.

[GoBlue77]

DOS SANTOS anndd newwwwwwwww


2k on Junior. Book it

[GoBlue77]

he barely squeaked by Miocic the first time and hes stayed at the same level or some people would say he has regressed while Miocic has only gotten better.... not a good spot to go large imo

its heavyweight and both guys have big power so anything could happen but i dont like going large on HW strikers with KO power way to sketch for me but GL

this is what i do, take junior if you want to cash

[GoBlue77]

Eddie Alvarez all day. This card is like Christmas

[Hugo de Naranja]

For those that want to bet Miocic, I'd advise waiting a few days. I'm confident he'll be all the way to +odds in the next few days after opening at (-245).

[firekillex]

Definitely on Andrade, been wanting to see her fight JJ ever since she stepped down from bantam weight. Was a bit worried about her striking, but her dominant stand-up performance over Angela Hill put to rest that worry. Angela herself looks like a very good match-up for JJ, wouldn't mind seeing them go at it, but as far as the ground game goes, Andrade not only has the advantage, but also the strength that JJ hasn't faced on the ground, Andrade is built like a tank at 115 pounds.


Also solid on Maia, he won't have Masdival on striking but he has a much more dominant ground game. Dunno if he can get the sub, but confident he can get the decision, so long as the fight goes to the ground.

Liking Edgar for the decision as well, so long as he don't take one of them Yair kicks to the head.

Alvarez/Poirier I ain't makin' no call on yet.

I am liking ma' boy Knight, not so much to beat Skelly. This fight might be exciting or boring, but every time Knight fights they slap him with dog status and damned if he hasn't made them pay for it. Kinda excited to see if they do the same here, this guy is one of my most profitable dogs.

andrade really impressed me with her cardio in the hill fight she was constant pressure for 15 minutes , 0 breaks and pushed the entire time i really like her style matchup against JJ especially at + money i like it id lean her almost 60/40 in the matchup she can take a punch to because shell have to against JJ, sweet fight though

i actually wanna see how rose would do against her if she losses the title fight

[bjpenn85]

Eddie Alvarez all day. This card is like Christmas

What do you think will be the deciding factor for alvarezs win over dustin, and in JDS vs stipe?

[dadaas]

Maybe Dos Santos beat Miocic, but that was 3 years ago and Miocic a fighter with big heart will never allow to be beaten by same guy twice time and now at stake is Heavyweight title?

I just dont see this happening.

[GunShard]

Dos Santos and Andrade are underdogs that should win.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Maybe Dos Santos beat Miocic, but that was 3 years ago and Miocic a fighter with big heart will never allow to be beaten by same guy twice time and now at stake is Heavyweight title?

I just dont see this happening.

Was really confused by your Shark avatar. Thought you were GoBlue for a minute lol

[Hugo de Naranja]

Dos Santos and Andrade are underdogs that should win.

Why?

[RussianMike]

What do you think will be the deciding factor for alvarezs win over dustin, and in JDS vs stipe?

Porier by KO
or
Alvarez by Decision

[RussianMike]

ITD

notice pretty much all the round totals giving big plus money for with the unders.
Which fighters do u think haves best shots of winning ITD/under their round totals?
My two cents are on Maia pretty much hogging Masvidal w his back on the ground within first two minutes.
Also see Porir KO if Alvarez choses to strike w him all 3 rounds, which sometimes he does.

[bjpenn85]

Porier by KO
or
Alvarez by Decision

Huh? Give me goblues opinon. He bets large. If you go 2K on poirier by KO i surely pay attention...

[Shagdogy]

3 weeks until this card seems like eternity.

[Shagdogy]

best card of the year so far imo

some early leans i like :
Andrade +150 dog money i think shes the biggest threat to JJ so far
Edgar -170 id like for the decision prop if the value is solid
Maia -120 is a solid line ill most likely take a shot at the submission prop if its juicy enough ( thought hed be at -150 range )
Alvarez vs porier is a super tough fight , i think whoever wins is by decision ... most likely play the o2.5 here
Cejudo decision if the value is right i will like as well


jotko vs branch great fight as well... darkhorse fight on the card

I haven't really started watching tape, but you guys don't think Edgar is going to struggle with the size of Rodriguez? He's very big and strong for this division and Edgar isn't getting any younger. I'm not sure he wins this fight on the feet.

[firekillex]

I haven't really started watching tape, but you guys don't think Edgar is going to struggle with the size of Rodriguez? He's very big and strong for this division and Edgar isn't getting any younger. I'm not sure he wins this fight on the feet.

I like the odds at -170 for edgar, he will take down Yair and use relentless pressure in the fight imo.. 3 rounds is the key here
Yairs length could cause Edgar some problems but i think the vet will come through and win the rounds/points game to take a decision here ill probably take the decision prop imo, people sometimes forget how great of a wrestler Edgar is, plus hes super tough so even if Yair tags him i think hell push through it.... Super tough fight but ill take the vet, if Yair wins he turns into a star so theres a ton on the line here

[Hugo de Naranja]

I like the odds at -170 for edgar, he will take down Yair and use relentless pressure in the fight imo.. 3 rounds is the key here
Yairs length could cause Edgar some problems but i think the vet will come through and win the rounds/points game to take a decision here ill probably take the decision prop imo, people sometimes forget how great of a wrestler Edgar is, plus hes super tough so even if Yair tags him i think hell push through it.... Super tough fight but ill take the vet, if Yair wins he turns into a star so theres a ton on the line here

Edgar down to (-140)

[firekillex]

Edgar down to (-140)

you gonna wait to see if it drops even more?
considering pouncing at -140 now... i was gonna wait until this weekend to place my wagers since the cards in 3 weeks

hopefully get decision prop at some solid + money

[Hugo de Naranja]

you gonna wait to see if it drops even more?
considering pouncing at -140 now... i was gonna wait until this weekend to place my wagers since the cards in 3 weeks

hopefully get decision prop at some solid + money

Yeah I'm going to cap this a bit more thoroughly and take whatever price is out once I'm done capping. In the past, I've rushed a bit to get a good price or play line movement and sometimes haven't been happy with my bet allocation. I lean Edgar pre-capping though.

[brooks85]

the wait is miserable every time

[JIBBBY]

May 13 are you kidding me? See you guys next month... Geez....