Hugo's Long Shot Props

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hey guys. I've decided to post a new thread where I pick at least one long shot prop per event. I've had pretty good success hitting props in the (+1000) range for full 1u stakes. I plan to track my results in this thread throughout the year. I invite anyone interested to suggest their own good value long shots. Thanks again to all who participate in this forum. I really enjoy our fight conversations and analysis.
Cheers to a profitable 2017

[Hugo de Naranja]

Have 2 leans for props on the Phoenix card that should be in the long shot range.

[getlucky2win]

Penn by Dec. He is motivated. To the death!

[Hugo de Naranja]

Penn by Dec. He is motivated. To the death!

Motivated BJ Penn! That's certainly a possible outcome but I think Yair takes this one.

[getlucky2win]

Penn dies in octagon +99999

[Hugo de Naranja]

I think I've got one singled out. I'll do a full write up and post in the next few days.

[JIBBBY]

All my prop plays are on the event threads live but if I see a gem I'll post it up after I place.. Why not?

[JIBBBY]

Penn dies in octagon +99999

Lol..

Dude is gonna get smashed.. Out to long, to shop warn already, retired for a reason before.. I don't see a BJ Penn comeback happening...

[Hugo de Naranja]

All my prop plays are on the event threads live but if I see a gem I'll post it up after I place.. Why not?

Sounds good thanks

[Hugo de Naranja]

Long Shot Prop Breakdown for Sergio Pettis vs. John Moraga:

Observations from Pettis' Record:
Pettis is one of the youngest fighters in the UFC at 23 years of age. He holds a 5-2 UFC record, mostly against lower level flyweights. Despite displaying a Taekwondo style similar to his brother Anthony, Sergio is very different as a fighter. He is a good round winner who uses a high volume of punches, high kicks and sometimes takedowns to accumulate points on the judges scorecards. Also unlike Anthony, Sergio is not a potent finisher with all five of his Octagon victories coming by unanimous decision. On the flip side, both of his UFC losses (to Alex Caceres and Ryan Benoit) were by finish. Prior to his UFC debut, Pettis racked up a 9-0 professional record on the Wisconsin regional circuit and a 3-0 amateur record.

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Sergio-Pettis-50987

Observations from Pettis' Fights:
While watching tape on Sergio, I was impressed with his technical striking acumen. He displayed a high volume of accurate strikes. Although Pettis is not especially powerful, his boxing is more dangerous than his brother's and he lands head kicks often. However, Pettis has struggled to finish even lower level UFC fighters. His losses provide key information about his flaws going forward.

In the Caceres fight, Pettis was dropped his opponent in the second round. Since Caceres is not a power puncher (2 KO/TKOs in 22 career) fights this is somewhat worrisome. It seems Pettis might not have the chin his elder brother is known for. The first two rounds of the fight were close but Pettis was likely on his way to a 29-28 decision with the third round drawing to a close. With about a minute left, he attempted to take Caceres down and was reversed. Pettis then transitioned to a leg lock. Caceres spun around and since Pettis didn't let go, he got his back taken and Caceres sunk in a rear-naked choke to get the upset win with only 21 seconds left. Pettis did almost nothing to fight the back take or the choke attempt. This fight showcased Pettis round winning abilities but also highlighted potential durability, fight IQ and grappling issues.

The Ryan Benoit fight also showed that these issues were still persistent against a different stylistic matchup. After dominating the first round, Pettis and Benoit exchanged left hooks (a la Dan Hardy and Carlos Condit). Benoit's landed harder and Pettis was knocked down before being finished by Benoit's ground strikes.

Observations from Moraga's Record:
Moraga is a 32-year-old fighter who holds a 5-4 record in the UFC. He has certainly faced better competition that Pettis, defeating quality fighters like Justin Scoggins and Dustin Ortiz. Moraga is a finisher with 4 of his 5 UFC wins coming by finish (3 submissions, 1 KO). On the flip side, he has been finished twice in his career (KO by John Dodson and Submission by Mighty Mouse). I don't really hold these two losses against him as Dodson and Johnson are two of the best finishers in flyweight history. Moraga is on a two fight losing streak, dropping decisions to Joseph Benavidez and Matheus Nicolau. This fight is a matchup of contrasting styles and trends. Where Pettis is a volume heavy decisionator, Moraga is a submission ace who is known for his toughness and ability to come from behind in fights. He is not a round winner as his only UFC decision win was a split decision where most media members believed he lost.

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/John-Moraga-55159

http://mmadecisions.com/decision/4819/John-Moraga-vs-Dustin-Ortiz

Observations from Moraga's Fights:
I believe that Moraga's fight with Scoggins is the most similar stylistic matchup to Pettis, as Scoggins is a karate based standup fighter who likes to mix in takedowns. In the first round of this fight, Scoggins picked Moraga apart from range and won a clear 10-9. Very early in Round 2, Scoggins took Moraga down before getting caught in a guillotine choke. Despite not being flat on his shoulders, Moraga was able to get the tap from Scoggins and win the fight. This fight showed the strength of Moraga's squeeze as well as his ability to come from behind.

Another important fight was Moraga's win over Willie Gates. After being kicked in the groin, Moraga complains to the referee, who does not stop the fight. Gates capitalizes on Moraga's distraction and knocks him down with a punch that Moraga didn't see coming. Gates immediately attempts a rear-naked choke and gets it in deep. Moraga is able to defend the choke and reverse the position. Later on, in the third round, Moraga takes Gates down. He then brutalizes his opponent with ground and pound before locking in a rear-naked choke with less than a minute left in the fight. Moraga's battle with Gates showcased his toughness and durability, as well as his grappling ability and submission finishing skill.

Official Long Shot Prop: Moraga Round 3 (+1475) 1u
With two consecutive losses, I believe Moraga's UFC career may be on the line in this fight. Throughout his career, Moraga has shown that he does not have the striking volume or takedown artistry to be a consistent round-winner but he is able to handle adversity and tends to get better as fight goes on. Going into the third round, I believe Moraga will be losing 20-18 on the judge's scorecards. However, the fact that he is fighting in front of a home crowd and knows that he needs to win to stay in the UFC will give Moraga the impetus to go into the third round desperately seeking a finish. Add to that the fact that 2 of his 5 UFC wins are by third round submission, and this prop seems to have a lot of value, especially because Pettis has showcased low fight IQ and weak grappling late in fights.

Other Props to Consider:
Pettis Decision (+151): I believe this is the most likely outcome of this fight given Moraga's durability and Pettis' few finishes over his career.

Moraga Submission (+670): This is Moraga's most likely method of victory, regardless of round.

Moraga Round 2 (+950): Moraga finished Scoggins in Round 2 and Pettis was finished by Benoit in Round 2. This seems like a possible outcome.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Any thoughts about this?

[Broxbomber]

Great write up. I feel that Moraga is too tough for Pettis and will bully him. I think Pettis will mentally break in this fight.

Moraga Round 3 is +1800 on Bet365. I put 0.2u on it.

[Broxbomber]

To keep things simple, I think BJ will gas and Yair will finish him late.

Here are some long shots with big odds (bet365):

Yair by KO in Round 4 is +1600
Yair by KO in Round 5 is +4000

Yair by Sub in Round 4 is +5000
Yair by Sub in Round 5 is +6000

yair has some long limbs and could pull off a choke or triangle on a gassed BJ.

[Hugo de Naranja]

To keep things simple, I think BJ will gas and Yair will finish him late.

Here are some long shots with big odds (bet365):

Yair by KO in Round 4 is +1600
Yair by KO in Round 5 is +4000

Yair by Sub in Round 4 is +5000
Yair by Sub in Round 5 is +6000

yair has some long limbs and could pull off a choke or triangle on a gassed BJ.

Yeah I like Yair by late finish or decision. It's cool that Bet365 offers method of victory+round props like that. I'll probably play the general late round props. I'd be pretty surprised if Yair subbed BJ though.

[Hugo de Naranja]

-1u so far. Pettis looked great against Moraga. I've got another (+1xxx) play already locked in for this card. I'll plan to get a breakdown out tomorrow or Friday. Feel free to let me know if you guys have any ideas of your own.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Long Shot Prop Breakdown for Donald Cerrone vs. Jorge Masvidal:

Observations from Masvidal's Record:
Throughout his career, Masvidal has struggled with coasting against opponents that he beats soundly in the early going. Masvidal has impressive boxing, head movement, and countering but too often takes his foot off the gas when he is ahead on the scorecards. This has led to countless split decisions on Masvidal's record with him often being on the losing end. He comes into this fight on a two fight win streak over shot veterans Ross Pearson and Jake Ellenberger. Masvidal holds an 8-4 UFC Record with 3 of his 4 UFC losses coming by split decision.

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jorge-Masvidal-7688

Observations from Masvidal's Fights:
Masvidal is at his best when he is countering from boxing range. He has slick defense and is hard to hit, especially to the head. He is capable of mixing strikes up to the head and body of opponents but is not known for his power punching or submission ability. Coasting in the later rounds is one of Masvidal’s worst attributes as he often seems to think he is far ahead on the scorecards and that it is no longer necessary for him to outpoint his opponents. Although his chin and defense are solid, it is not impossible to catch Masvidal. In fact, light punching Michael Chiesa knocked Masvidal down in their 2013 bout.

Observations from Cerrone's Record:
In my opinion, Cowboy Cerrone has one of the most impressive resumes in the UFC. He holds wins over former champions like Eddie Alvarez and Benson Henderson as well as victories over Top 15 staples like Edson Barboza, Evan Dunham, and Jeremy Stephens. Cerrone holds a 19-4 UFC record and is currently riding a 4 fight win streak over solid competition. Since stepping up to Welterweight, he is undefeated and has finished all 4 of his opponents (3 KO/TKOs, 1 Submission). Cowboy has proved throughout his career that he retains his knockout and submission abilities into the later rounds.

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Donald-Cerrone-15105

Observations from Cerrone's Fights:
Cerrone has been on an absolute tear since moving up a weight class in early 2016. In his last 3 fights he has knocked out durable competition including Patrick Cote, Rick Story, and Matt Brown. Coming into their fights with Cowboy these men has a combined 1 KO/TKO loss despite having over 85 professional fights among them. Since working with renowned striking coach Brandon Gibson, Cerrone’s muay thai combination attacks have become comprehensive and devastating. Perhaps his most notable combination finish was against Story, where Cerrone flowed seamlessly between punches to the head and body and a head kick before finishing Story with strikes against the cage. Throughout his career, Cowboy has tended to improve as the fight wares on. At 170 pounds things are no different, with Cerrone earning 2 of his 3 KO/TKO wins in the third round. As such, I think if Cowboy is to get a finish over the defensively sound and durable Masvidal, it is more likely to be late in the bout.

Official Long Shot Prop: Cerrone Round 3 (+1550) 1u

Given Masvidal’s tendency to lose focus as the fight goes on and Cerrone’s late round finishing ability, I think this is a prop that holds great value. I locked in a full unit at the opening price of (+1400) and was surprised to see the line move the opposite direction. Although Masvidal is tough to hit cleanly and possesses solid durability, I believe he is an easier matchup for Cowboy than pressure fighters like Brown and Story. Cowboy will land kicks to the legs and body of Masvidal before catching him upstairs in the final round and finishing with punches to score a TKO stoppage.

Other Long Shot Props to Consider for UFC Denver:

Masvidal Round 1 (+900): I believe this is a possible outcome as Masvidal has hurt some recent opponents early in fights and 2 of Cowboy's 4 UFC losses have been the result of early body shots. Masvidal's ability to mix in body strikes in combination gives this prop some value.

Ngannou Submission (+869): Throughout his career, Ngannou has earned 4 of his 9 wins via submission. In the Anthony Hamilton fight, Ngannou secured a kimura in a standing position and was able to pull Hamilton down to the mat and finish him in devastating fashion. Arlovski has showcased good submission defense throughout his career but was submitted in his last bout. I could see a scenario where Ngannou hurts Arlovski and "The Pitbull" gets tapped.

Sterling Submission (+1100): Half of Sterling's 12 career wins come by way of submissions from top position, bottom position, and back control. Although Assuncao is an accomplished BJJ player, I think Sterling's scrambling abilities will give him an opportunity to sink in a submission in transition.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Got pretty robbed on Masvidal Round 1. Herb Dean stepped in before the bell so that fight should have been over right then.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Quick Prop Rundown for UFC Denver:
Fight #1: Gonzalez Round 1 (+475), Submission (+475)
Fight #2: Pantoja Decision (+280)
Fight #3: Rogerio de Lima Round 1 (+150), KO/TKO (+180)
Fight #4: Spicely Round 1 (+375), Submission (+200)
Fight #5: Johnson Decision (+220)
Fight #6: Jingliang Round 2 (+675), KO/TKO (+332)
Fight #7: Assuncao Decision (+150)
Fight #8: Alvey Decision (+401)
Fight #9: Knight Round 2 (+700), Submission (+375)
Fight #10: Ngannou Round 1 (-130), KO/TKO (-162)
Fight #11: Masvidal Round 2 (+925), KO/TKO (+450)
Fight #12: Shevchenko Round 2 (+825), Submission (+1000)

[turbozed]

Got pretty robbed on Masvidal Round 1. Herb Dean stepped in before the bell so that fight should have been over right then.

Masvidal Rd1 was a good call, even though it didn't cash officially. Thanks brotha.

[Rich Benjamins]

Got pretty robbed on Masvidal Round 1. Herb Dean stepped in before the bell so that fight should have been over right then.

You got punked man. Herb Dean had Masvidal by KO in round 2

[Hugo de Naranja]

You got punked man. Herb Dean had Masvidal by KO in round 2

Yeah I guess so haha. I did have 2 full units on Masvidal KO/TKO (+855) so I made some money on that fight despite losing a big bet on Cowboy.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Masvidal Rd1 was a good call, even though it didn't cash officially. Thanks brotha.

Definitely man

[Hugo de Naranja]

Don't have time to do a full breakdown this week but...

My Official Long Shot Prop of the Week is Alexa Grasso Round 3 (+1425) 1u

A few others that merit consideration:
Sung Jung KO/TKO (+713)
Herrig Round 1 (+1000)
Torres Round 3 (+1350)
Fortuna Submission (+415)
Hill Submission (+2150)
Blaydes Round 2 (+425)
Blaydes Round 3 (+950)
Morono Round 3 (+1050)

[Hugo de Naranja]

Also might be worth throwing a few $ on draw props since this is Texas and I think a few matchups have a chance of a draw here

[TimeTraveler75]

Fortuna ML

[Hugo de Naranja]

Fortuna ML

Good call TimeTraveler

[TimeTraveler75]

[Hugo de Naranja]

Don't have time to do a full breakdown this week but...

My Official Long Shot Prop of the Week is Alexa Grasso Round 3 (+1425) 1u

A few others that merit consideration:
Sung Jung KO/TKO (+713)
Herrig Round 1 (+1000)
Torres Round 3 (+1350)
Fortuna Submission (+415)
Hill Submission (+2150)
Blaydes Round 2 (+425)
Blaydes Round 3 (+950)
Morono Round 3 (+1050)

Blaydes Round 2 and Sung Jung KO/TKO both cash

[getlucky2win]

Lentz itd. Miller itd

[Hugo de Naranja]

Taleb KO/TKO (+1150) 1u

I'll post a few more tomorrow

[Hugo de Naranja]

It's up to (+1250) on 5Ds right now

[Hugo de Naranja]

A few others to consider:
Theodorou KO/TKO (+500)
Vieira Submission (+700)
Lewis Round 3 (+1050)
Markos Submission (+1120)
Felder Round 3 (+1400)
Mazany ITD (+1425)

[TimeTraveler75]

A few others to consider:
Theodorou KO/TKO (+500)
Vieira Submission (+700)
Lewis Round 3 (+1050)
Markos Submission (+1120)
Felder Round 3 (+1400)
Mazany ITD (+1425)

Good luck today Hugo

[Hugo de Naranja]

Good luck today Hugo

Thanks man you too. Who ya got?

[TimeTraveler75]

Thanks man you too. Who ya got?

I looked at all the angles, not very good at UFC honestly, the only guy i like tonight is Gavin Tucker at -160, guy is 9-0, he's at home (country) guy has sick punches and kicks, i really want that TKO line too, dude finishes his fights, only problem is the step up in competition, it's his first fight in the UFC, the big stage, it's a big test for him, the price of -160 i think it right on target, i won't go large on it but i like my chances. Sicilia on the other hand is similar but more risky, he can finish people as well, this fight can be a great fight, honestly i don't even see this fight getting to the third round, even maybe 1 round.. We'll see