UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley (July 30, 2016)

[Hugo de Naranja]

For those that don't already have a bet on the main event, you might want to consider this strategy:

Pre-Fight Bet:
Woodley Rd 1 for 2 units (ASAP for best price)
Woodley Rd 2 for 1 unit (ASAP for best price)
Lawler -5.5 for 2 units (Right before weigh-ins for best price)

Live Bet:
Lawler after Rd 1 if he lost the round but the fight is still going on. Lawler after Rd 1 will almost certainly be +odds
Lawler after Rd 2 if he is still plus odds

Unless one of these fighters has completely changed since their last appearance, this fight will likely be won by Woodley early or Lawler late when Woodley runs out of gas. If Woodley wins in Round 1, you will profit about 8u. If he wins in Round 2, you will profit about 6u. If Lawler wins in the first 2 rounds, you will break even. Now if Lawler survives the first 2 and you live bet him at +odds there is a high chance he comes back and wins by late finish and possibly decision which would cash both live bets and likely the -5.5 bet as well.

[Ty$]

For those that don't already have a bet on the main event, you might want to consider this strategy:

Pre-Fight Bet:
Woodley Rd 1 for 2 unit (ASAP for best price)
Woodley Rd 2 for 1 unit (ASAP for best price)
Lawler -5.5 for 2 unit (Right before weigh-ins for best price)

Live Bet:
Lawler after Rd 1 if he lost the round but the fight is still going on. Lawler after Rd 1 will almost certainly be +odds
Lawler after Rd 2 if he is still plus odds

Unless one of these fighters has completely changed since their last appearance, this fight will likely be won by Woodley early or Lawler late when Woodley runs out of gas. If Woodley wins in Round 1, you will profit about 8u. If he wins in Round 2, you will profit about 6u. If Lawler wins in the first 2 rounds, you will break even. Now if Lawler survives the first 2 and you live bet him at +odds there is a high chance he comes back and wins by late finish and possibly decision which would cash both live bets and likely the -5.5 bet as well.

Sick math bro holy shit impressed.... BTW bleacher report predicts Woodley by DEC. That would mess up your whole bet. I just can't see this fight going 25 minutes.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Lawler ML down to (-140)!

[Hugo de Naranja]

Sick math bro holy shit impressed.... BTW bleacher report predicts Woodley by DEC. That would mess up your whole bet. I just can't see this fight going 25 minutes.

I have a little parlay of Gastelum Decision/Woodley Decision that would cover some of my Lawler exposure but I think Woodley Decision is super unlikely.

[Rich Benjamins]

Sick math bro holy shit impressed.... BTW bleacher report predicts Woodley by DEC. That would mess up your whole bet. I just can't see this fight going 25 minutes.

Here http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...woodley/page/8 on Bleacher Report it predicts Lawler wins. I don't think I'll bet on that fight. I favor Lawler a little but it's too close.

[firekillex]

Lawler ML down to (-140)!

Holyyyyy, do you think it gets lower?? I'm about to make a huge play , hope he's not injured or something

[Hugo de Naranja]

Holyyyyy, do you think it gets lower?? I'm about to make a huge play , hope he's not injured or something

Not sure but this seems like a really good price.

[Hugo de Naranja]

We've seen steam like this in a few recent main events without good reason, i.e. Lineker vs. Mcdonald, Jedzrzejczyk vs. Gadelha II

[JIBBBY]

For those that don't already have a bet on the main event, you might want to consider this strategy:

Pre-Fight Bet:
Woodley Rd 1 for 2 units (ASAP for best price)
Woodley Rd 2 for 1 unit (ASAP for best price)
Lawler -5.5 for 2 units (Right before weigh-ins for best price)

Live Bet:
Lawler after Rd 1 if he lost the round but the fight is still going on. Lawler after Rd 1 will almost certainly be +odds
Lawler after Rd 2 if he is still plus odds

Unless one of these fighters has completely changed since their last appearance, this fight will likely be won by Woodley early or Lawler late when Woodley runs out of gas. If Woodley wins in Round 1, you will profit about 8u. If he wins in Round 2, you will profit about 6u. If Lawler wins in the first 2 rounds, you will break even. Now if Lawler survives the first 2 and you live bet him at +odds there is a high chance he comes back and wins by late finish and possibly decision which would cash both live bets and likely the -5.5 bet as well.

Funny just yesterday I thought to myself I need to watch a few rounds of this fight stay sharp and look to live bet and hedge if Ruthless Robbie is still around to start the 3rd or 4th and starting to come on.. I'll probably be drunk though and forget to do this

[KingHawkins]

We've seen steam like this in a few recent main events without good reason, i.e. Lineker vs. Mcdonald, Jedzrzejczyk vs. Gadelha II

How about Holm vs Shevchenko? Was that steam "without good reason"? Just trying to point out that we have seen the big steam plays both win and lose in the very recent past.

[firekillex]

Not sure but this seems like a really good price.

I'm on lawler huge for -145 I'm gonna wait until saturday and watch the line movement if it starts going up I'll put my bet in quick but hoping it can drop a little more , don't see why it's even dropping at all but I'll take it

this is gonna make this card a lot more interesting , probably going to be my biggest UFC bet of the year , war lawler

[Hugo de Naranja]

How about Holm vs Shevchenko? Was that steam "without good reason"? Just trying to point out that we have seen the big steam plays both win and lose in the very recent past.

I was on Shev from the start since the line was ridiculous. A few sharps came in huge late on her which dropped the line. I get your point though that steam is not always a great indicator of what will happen.

[Ty$]

Here http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...woodley/page/8 on Bleacher Report it predicts Lawler wins. I don't think I'll bet on that fight. I favor Lawler a little but it's too close.

Sorry must have read sumthing wrong or diff site

[Ty$]

I was on Shev from the start since the line was ridiculous. A few sharps came in huge late on her which dropped the line. I get your point though that steam is not always a great indicator of what will happen.

You're right same thing happened w Mac/Lineker and JL still put boot to ass.

[Ty$]

I'm on lawler huge for -145 I'm gonna wait until saturday and watch the line movement if it starts going up I'll put my bet in quick but hoping it can drop a little more , don't see why it's even dropping at all but I'll take it

this is gonna make this card a lot more interesting , probably going to be my biggest UFC bet of the year , war lawler

It's the year of main event underdogs so far. Casual bettors only see the +++ I think the line gets even lower than -130 which I predicted. Rivera up to +140 from starting even.

[firekillex]

It's the year of main event underdogs so far. Casual bettors only see the +++ I think the line gets even lower than -130 which I predicted.

Ive been on a ton of the underdogs but first thing this fight was announced I was on lawler big time and vowed to go large if it went under -200 now it's creeping under -150 my prayers have come true now he just needs to come through

[Hugo de Naranja]

Steam on Erik Perez moves Rivera to +140

[KingHawkins]

Don't forget Krylov. He just got "steamed" too back to -210/225 at my two shops. Better value on Herman for me? Or "Maybe I better just watch the fight.." (and maybe sprinkle the over)

[Rich Benjamins]

Don't forget Krylov. He just got "steamed" too back to -210/225 at my two shops. Better value on Herman for me? Or "Maybe I better just watch the fight.." (and maybe sprinkle the over)

You never know how exactly a fight will play out, but I think sprinkle the under would be a much smarter bet. Both of those guys are finishers, and finishees. I wanna see Krylov get a first round finish. However, a finish does look expected in the betting line so might not be bad, you're only betting on o1.5 +110 on 5Dimes.

[KingHawkins]

You never know how exactly a fight will play out, but I think sprinkle the under would be a much smarter bet. Both of those guys are finishers, and finishees. I wanna see Krylov get a first round finish. However, a finish does look expected in the betting line so might not be bad, you're only betting on o1.5 +110 on 5Dimes.

Expect the unexpected. o1.5 +110 seems fair to me. Should be a fun fight to watch, I look forward to this one.

[Ty$]

Got Krylov at -150

[firekillex]

Using brown in 2 fight parlays as a main piece , basically get -110 to + juice with any person you like if you add him . Could get buried if he loses but I like this fight for him. Add in masvidal , graves , krylov, scoggins , others you like

[JIBBBY]

Steam on Erik Perez moves Rivera to +140

Saw that

[THE_RUDESTER]

Throw in Leo Santa Cruz (boxing) in some parlays. I have him -170 now at a ridiculous -340 nonetheless he should definitely get the W.

Getting more action on him
Parlay #1
Santa Cruz and Brown
Parlay #2
Santa Cruz and Rodriguez (next week.)

[Hugo de Naranja]

Throw in Leo Santa Cruz (boxing) in some parlays. I have him -170 now at a ridiculous -340 nonetheless he should definitely get the W.

Getting more action on him
Parlay #1
Santa Cruz and Brown
Parlay #2
Santa Cruz and Rodriguez (next week.)

I don't bet boxing much but I hit Santa Cruz/Dec early too. I think he wins pretty handily

[THE_RUDESTER]

👆 Cool. Good Luck to all this weekend.

[HurlSweatPants]

Liking Graves to win by dec and thinking about taking a small flyer on Benoit if I can get better than +105.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Liking Graves to win by dec and thinking about taking a small flyer on Benoit if I can get better than +105.

Look for Graves -3.5. I think he either wins a wide decision or gets a finish (5 finishes in 6 fights). It will probably be +odds and has a great chance of cashing

[JC2008]

Santa Cruz is +125 by decision on Bet365. Definitely sprinkle on the draw as there will be a large Irish continingent in Barkley's Center cheering him on, which may influence the judging. Probably not though, as Frampton is moving up and LSC's workrate is crazy.

[JIBBBY]

Scoggins/Mcall fight cancelled ..

http://mmajunkie.com/2016/07/video-ian-mccall-responds-to-ufc-201-cancellation-in-wake-of-justin-scoggins-failed-weight-cut

[Ty$]

Look for Graves -3.5. I think he either wins a wide decision or gets a finish (5 finishes in 6 fights). It will probably be +odds and has a great chance of cashing

Nice call here

[firekillex]

BJ what's the deal with scoggins pulling out and going up to bantamweight ?? Was looking forward to this fight kinda weak to pull that 2 days before the card

[bjpenn85]

BJ what's the deal with scoggins pulling out and going up to bantamweight ?? Was looking forward to this fight kinda weak to pull that 2 days before the card

Thats weird, he has made the weight many times before? Maybe Franscico rivera at +155 isnt that bad now. Def a 50/50 fight

[sweep]

lawler down to -143 at bookmaker

[Rich Benjamins]

lawler down to -143 at bookmaker

I'm leaning towards Lawler, but he could easily lose this fight. It will likely end up 50/50 odds. Lawler is a paper champ anyways. He actually lost in the Condit fight, he also lost to Hendricks in their second fight IMO. The judges gave it to him.