UFC 198: Werdum vs. Miocic (May 14, 2016)

[Hugo de Naranja]

Picks for this event: I think it will be finish heavy
Renato Moicano Rd 2 Submission
Sergio Moraes Rd 1 Submission
Francisco Trinaldo Unanimous Decision
Patrick Cummins Unanimous Decision
John Lineker Rd 1 TKO
Thiago Santos Rd 1 KO
Warlley Alves Rd 2 Submission
Demian Maia Rd 2 Submission
Corey Anderson Unanimous Decision
Cyborg Justino Rd 2 TKO
Ronaldo Souza Rd 2 Submission
Fabricio Werdum Rd 4 Submission

[shabang]

Picks for this event: I think it will be finish heavy
Renato Moicano Rd 2 Submission
Sergio Moraes Rd 1 Submission
Francisco Trinaldo Unanimous Decision
Patrick Cummins Unanimous Decision
John Lineker Rd 1 TKO
Thiago Santos Rd 1 KO
Warlley Alves Rd 2 Submission
Demian Maia Rd 2 Submission
Corey Anderson Unanimous Decision
Cyborg Justino Rd 2 TKO
Ronaldo Souza Rd 2 Submission
Fabricio Werdum Rd 4 Submission

seriously doubt moicano will sub tuk , that will most likely go to dec .. I like font over lineker, font won't get into slugging matches with him (he knows he'll get ko'd if he does) and should be able to use his movement to pick him apart. I like the rest, a little unsure about the anderson/shogun fight though.

[JIBBBY]

My first 7 plays, I'm not betting crazy on any of the first 6 fights.. No hedging either..

1st fight -

$140.00

$103.70

Pending

5/14/16 6:30pm UFC Fighting 2101 Zubaira Tukhugov/Renato Carneiro Over 2½ -135*

2nd fight -

$150.00 FP*

$100.00

Pending

5/14/16 7:00pm MMA Props Fighting 2031 Moraes wins by submission -150* vs Any other result

3rd fight -

$100.00 FP*

$240.00

Pending

5/14/16 7:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1909 Cummins wins inside distance +240* vs Not Cummins inside distance

4th fight -

$100.00

$125.00

Pending

5/14/16 8:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1833 Lineker wins by TKO/KO +125* vs Any other result

$100.00

$140.00

Pending

5/14/16 8:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1809 Lineker wins inside distance +140* vs Not Lineker inside distance

5th fight -

$100.00

$160.00

Pending

5/14/16 8:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1709 Trinaldo wins inside distance +160* vs Not Trinaldo inside distance

6th fight -

$150.00 FP*

$96.80

Pending

5/14/16 9:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1633 Santos wins by TKO/KO -155* vs Any other result

7th fight -

$100.00

$165.00

Pending

5/14/16 11:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1531 Maia wins by submission +165* vs Any other result

$50.00	$250.00	Pending	2 Team Parlay
				Pending	5/14/16 11:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1121 Souza wins in round 1 +140* vs Any other result
				Pending	5/14/16 11:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1531 Maia wins by submission +150* vs Any other result

[UncleChael]

2nd fight - Moraes -188 ITD to win 1 unit
3rd fight - Cummings + Moraes @-141. 2 units.

[JIBBBY]

I'm gonna try to pay attention to live betting on this card.. Figure post pending now not to be distracted..

I may lay off the liquor a little bit perhaps just to stay sharp and dialed in with the live betting between rounds..

[JC2008]

I know Cummins is expected to win by decision but I can see him grapplef ucking Nog down and gnp'ing him out in the 3rd round +1600, after seeing Jibby using his FP on him to win inside the distance...

[JIBBBY]

I know Cummins is expected to win by decision but I can see him grapplef ucking Nog down and gnp'ing him out in the 3rd round +1600, after seeing Jibby using his FP on him to win inside the distance...

Yep Old little nog really should get beat up on the ground.. The 2nd and 3rd round finish props are worth considering I agree.. I'm not super confident though as Little Nog will show massive heart fighting in Brazil and on this card.. ITD prop made the most sense to me at those +odds...

Built up some FP and decided to finally use it with this event ..

[Pinoy-T-X]

Me like a three team parlay
13 units to win 9 units
Alves
Santos
Cyborg

[JC2008]

Maybe Smith does get beat up badly in the first round but survives to round 2. I have to consider Cyborg round 2 finish, even though I think she will want to make a statement in her debut and probably crushes Smith in the first 30-60 seconds of the fight...

I do agree Jacare should win but Belfort may make it to round 2.

[HurlSweatPants]

Going to follow on a couple of these with you, haven't had time to cap as much as I would like. GL Fellas, seems like the last two fights we have been killing it, here is to another profitable night.

Picks for this event: I think it will be finish heavy
Renato Moicano Rd 2 Submission
Sergio Moraes Rd 1 Submission
Francisco Trinaldo Unanimous Decision
Patrick Cummins Unanimous Decision
John Lineker Rd 1 TKO
Thiago Santos Rd 1 KO
Warlley Alves Rd 2 Submission
Demian Maia Rd 2 Submission
Corey Anderson Unanimous Decision
Cyborg Justino Rd 2 TKO
Ronaldo Souza Rd 2 Submission
Fabricio Werdum Rd 4 Submission

[JC2008]

- As always, I will let you all know of the line moves I see before each fight goes off...

Line moves have obviously shifted towards Shogun and Font but those have been mentioned, and not as important compared to closer to fight time. I can see Shogun winning a ROBBERY of a decision against Anderson as well in Brazil. We'll see what happens. LIVE betting is where it's always at.

[Shagdogy]

Dustin Porier crushed Yancy.. Does Trinaldo do the same in Brazil?

UFC 198 - Lightweight 3 rounds - Arena da Baixada - Curitiba, Brazil - UFC Fight Pass
Sat 5/14		1701 Yancy Medeiros		+205	o1½ -220
8:30PM		1702 Francisco Trinaldo		-245	u1½ +180

Late to the party here Jibbs, but this is one of the fights I've had a chance to get a good look at. I think Trinaldo wins but not by steamrolling like Poirier. Trinaldo is a more patient striker. Both he and Medeiros like to take some time and find rhythm. What Trinaldo definitely has going for him is all of his power on his left side. Medeiros got cracked a number of times by Poirier's left, and he's the only other recent southpaw he's fought so it doesn't look good for him vs. Trinaldo. I think it stays close on the feet, pretty steady but relaxed pace, with Trinaldo keeping an edge the whole way through. Either decision victory or late finish. If they get in close and clinch up, Trinaldo has some dangerous knees too so he should be good there. Large power and strength adv. for Trinaldo. Good luck sir. Of course this is all just my humble opinion... view it as you may.

[JIBBBY]

Maybe Smith does get beat up badly in the first round but survives to round 2. I have to consider Cyborg round 2 finish, even though I think she will want to make a statement in her debut and probably crushes Smith in the first 30-60 seconds of the fight...

I do agree Jacare should win but Belfort may make it to round 2.

I'm reading and hearing Smith is REALLY tough to finish.. She does seem durable watching her past fight vids..

So I gave this a shot below even though Cyborg looks juiced, UFC debut and it is going down in home Country of Brazil. Oh I almost forgot Cyborg finishes most of her fights in the 1st round also..

CARDS are certainly stacked up against Leslie in this fight to survive the early on slaught... I'll gamble though.. I may hit this again for another benny before fight time..

$90.00

$144.40

Pending

5/14/16 11:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1237 Smith / Justino starts round 2 +160* vs Fight won’t start round 2

[Hugo de Naranja]

- As always, I will let you all know of the line moves I see before each fight goes off...

Line moves have obviously shifted towards Shogun and Font but those have been mentioned, and not as important compared to closer to fight time. I can see Shogun winning a ROBBERY of a decision against Anderson as well in Brazil. We'll see what happens. LIVE betting is where it's always at.

I'll be looking to live bet Werdum after round 1 since he usually gets better as the fight progresses. Hopefully we will get + odds

[UncleChael]

2nd fight - Moraes -188 ITD to win 1 unit
3rd fight - Cummings + Moraes @-141. 2 units.

4th fight - 1 unit Rob Font +110 ML
5th fight Trinaldo -220 ML 1 unit.

[JC2008]

One thing I learned last weekend was, 'don't overthink it.'

[Hugo de Naranja]

4th fight - 1 unit Rob Font +110 ML
5th fight Trinaldo -220 ML 1 unit.

Glad you changed this one. I don't see Medeiros winning

[UncleChael]

Glad you changed this one. I don't see Medeiros winning

Yeah, I'm late. Rewatched tape, me neither...

[slayer14]

give me some lively outsider bets guy, thanks

[shabang]

4th fight - 1 unit Rob Font +110 ML
5th fight Trinaldo -220 ML 1 unit.

for the font/lineker fight - i know a lot of you are on lineker for the ko, ( I think font takes this by dec)...a good bet to consider would be font NOT ITD -289 - lineker has never been finished.

also with leslie smith, she's never been legit finished either (the one time was the for the ear tear and the dr stopped it, she just might be strong enough to survice to the later rounds (even if she does, cyborg is better everywhere, so it shouldn't matter as far as winners go) but fight starts round 2 might be a good bet on this one. She's gone to the later rounds in a few of her fights and the last few she almost hit round 2 (45 seconds to spare in both fights) Im considering it. (it's just leslie has nothing going for her except her toughness,poses no threat to cyborg anywhere)

[shabang]

fight #1 - on tuk straight, on the over, and on starts round 2

fight #2 - on sergio inside the distance as opposed to the sub (he got his first ko/tko stoppage last fight)

fight #3 - cummins straight

fight #4 - font by dec, NOT font inside the distance

[Hugo de Naranja]

for the font/lineker fight - i know a lot of you are on lineker for the ko, ( I think font takes this by dec)...a good bet to consider would be font NOT ITD -289 - lineker has never been finished.

also with leslie smith, she's never been legit finished either (the one time was the for the ear tear and the dr stopped it, she just might be strong enough to survice to the later rounds (even if she does, cyborg is better everywhere, so it shouldn't matter as far as winners go) but fight starts round 2 might be a good bet on this one. She's gone to the later rounds in a few of her fights and the last few she almost hit round 2 (45 seconds to spare in both fights) Im considering it. (it's just leslie has nothing going for her except her toughness,poses no threat to cyborg anywhere)

Jibbs bet of fight to start round 2 looked good. Also like not Font ITD as well. If he wins this fight I think it will be by establishing his range and using his jab to a decision.

[Hugo de Naranja]

fight #1 - on tuk straight, on the over, and on starts round 2

fight #2 - on sergio inside the distance as opposed to the sub (he got his first ko/tko stoppage last fight)

fight #3 - cummins straight

fight #4 - font by dec, NOT font inside the distance

Although I picked Moicano in fight 1, I think this is quite likely a UD for Tukhugov. Should be a good fight

[shabang]

Jibbs bet of fight to start round 2 looked good. Also like not Font ITD as well. If he wins this fight I think it will be by establishing his range and using his jab to a decision.

yea exactly what im thinking, font will be the bigger man for once and will have like a 5-6" reach advantage, he is also the more technical striker. He needs to dance around and stay at range, be smart, don't get into a slug fest with lineker, he should know this. I think this is font's fight to lose.

Although I picked Moicano in fight 1, I think this is quite likely a UD for Tukhugov. Should be a good fight

agreed, very tough fight to call, will be a hell of a fight..going with the fresher guy.

[spurginobili]

I took Carneiro by Dec, but agree, should be a close fight and think it goes over

Parlayed Carneiro/Tukhugov starts rd 3 with Cummins

[TheHaus]

Im confused. Lil nog may be 39 but hes in amazing shape.. doesn't have the amount of fights his older brother does and is in his home town. Im all in boys.. hes a Lil nog

[Shagdogy]

Getting a good look at Anderson/Shogun now. I think cardio may be the difference in this one. Anderson has pretty good size and reach, and he is quick and has cardio to stay strong for 3 rounds. We've seen Shogun slow down and that will cost him when he's stuck fighting from the outside. Anderson will also score with takedowns in the third to win on the cards if he needs. He should win this fight pretty easy. Robbery decision is the concern. He needs to work a bit more than he usually does if he senses any opportunities to finish.

[Shagdogy]

Im confused. Lil nog may be 39 but hes in amazing shape.. doesn't have the amount of fights his older brother does and is in his home town. Im all in boys.. hes a Lil nog

If he keeps it on the feet you're in good shape. His hands are so much better than Cummings. He needs to stop takedowns though. Can he do that all fight?

[Hugo de Naranja]

yea exactly what im thinking, font will be the bigger man for once and will have like a 5-6" reach advantage, he is also the more technical striker. He needs to dance around and stay at range, be smart, don't get into a slug fest with lineker, he should know this. I think this is font's fight to lose.

agreed, very tough fight to call, will be a hell of a fight..going with the fresher guy.

Font by decision worth a look at +480

[McCarthyFam]

Good luck fellas!
starting it off with:

tukhugov $58 to win $50

[JIBBBY]

OK GAME TIME!!! Let's get that pay dirt people!!!!

This first scrap I took the over, but Renalto by sub isn't a bad play for odds.. He does win by submission over 50 percent of the time..

2131 Carneiro wins by submission

+655

Renato
Moicano
vs
Zubaira
Tukhugov
"Warrior"

BRAZIL
Country
RUSSIA

9-0-1
Record
18-3-0

0%
KO/TKO
33%

56%
SUB
6%

44%
DEC
61%

71 in
Height
68 in

145 lbs
Weight
145 lbs

72 in
Reach
68 in

42 in
Leg Reach
38 in

[HurlSweatPants]

Getting a good look at Anderson/Shogun now. I think cardio may be the difference in this one. Anderson has pretty good size and reach, and he is quick and has cardio to stay strong for 3 rounds. We've seen Shogun slow down and that will cost him when he's stuck fighting from the outside. Anderson will also score with takedowns in the third to win on the cards if he needs. He should win this fight pretty easy. Robbery decision is the concern. He needs to work a bit more than he usually does if he senses any opportunities to finish.

Agree, I am staying away from the Shogun fight as well as the Cummins/Nog fight for that very reason. The judges are bound to screw at least one decision up per card, and if these fights are grinding and there isn't a ton of action I don't want to put my money on the judges. I can totally see Nog hitting Cummins with some big shots early and then Cummins L&P on him for two rounds, and still coming out with a dec loss.

[shabang]

gL all, lets get it

[JAKEPEAVY21]

the atmosphere at this event is unique, really geeked up!!

[JIBBBY]

I'd hate to have bleeds at this stadium.. You won't be able to see shiiiit in those upper decks..