UFC 198: Werdum vs. Miocic (May 14, 2016)

[mirinquads]

Jibby, it's going to be tough finding value anywhere on Cyborg in this fight. I think if Smith can make it out of the first, she has a decent chance at getting a late finish if Cyborg gasses. Remember that Justino already has a brutal cut down to 145, and she now has to cut ANOTHER 5 pounds for the first time. This is a showcase matchup for her, one she should win but besides maybe Gina Carano and Marloes Coenen, I think most of Cyborg's resume is second-tier competition. With this in mind, you might consider small plays on any of the following props:
Smith Round 2 (+3400)
Smith Round 3 (+4300)
Smith Decision (+1850)
If not, this might be a good fight to stay away from since there is pretty much 0 value on any Cyborg play. I mean Cyborg KO/TKO is (-485) right now. Really?

Dont waste your money.

[bjpenn85]

Cyborg TKO/Decision @ 1.22 has value IMO. Cyborg @ 1.05 - no value. Cyborg wont get taken down our outstruck. The typical red flags for upsets are simply not there. Leslie Smith got to have some advantages to logically win. Shes out matched in every facet, that normally means you wont se any upsets. Can the fight go out of the first round, absolutely.

[brooks85]

pumped for this card



weighin 3pm est

[Sato]

Cyborg/Leslie is a setup folks. You guys trying to find any value in Leslie is laughable. Have you seen Cyborg getting emotional at the prayer in one of the embedded videos and that this is a great opprtunity? Leslie was joking having chocolate icecream and watching a movie on apple tv. I think Leslie is going to die!

[BIGDAY]

Cyborg/Leslie is a setup folks. You guys trying to find any value in Leslie is laughable. Have you seen Cyborg getting emotional at the prayer in one of the embedded videos and that this is a great opprtunity? Leslie was joking having chocolate icecream and watching a movie on apple tv. I think Leslie is going to die!

[Hugo de Naranja]

Cyborg TKO/Decision @ 1.22 has value IMO. Cyborg @ 1.05 - no value. Cyborg wont get taken down our outstruck. The typical red flags for upsets are simply not there. Leslie Smith got to have some advantages to logically win. Shes out matched in every facet, that normally means you wont se any upsets. Can the fight go out of the first round, absolutely.

You're probably right. There is literally no area of the fight where Smith is better. If only she had a ground game. Maybe she will survive a round and Cyborg Round 2 (+400) would cash. Round 3 (+875) and Decision (+1850) also might have a bit of value because Cyborg doesn't always get the finish and Smith is probably better than most Invicta competition despite her shitty record.

[Killer_Demo]

Leslie Smith will be the sacrificial lamb for this card

[JIBBBY]

Dustin Porier crushed Yancy.. Does Trinaldo do the same in Brazil?

UFC 198 - Lightweight 3 rounds - Arena da Baixada - Curitiba, Brazil - UFC Fight Pass
Sat 5/14		1701 Yancy Medeiros		+205	o1½ -220
8:30PM		1702 Francisco Trinaldo		-245	u1½ +180

[JIBBBY]

I just deleted a Trinaldo breakdown post by mistake!!.. Shiiiit.. Hate when I do that... Errrrr..

I guess the play is Trinaldo, either ITD or by decision? Could gamble and try the KO prop at +350 but a sub win could possibly happen as well...

1709 Trinaldo wins inside distance

+160

1711 Trinaldo wins by 3 round decision

+165

Strong man beast mode

[LBfightlife]

I train alongside Leslie .. at El Nino in San Francisco. .

You're right .. her toolset isn't on the same level ..

But I see this going over 1.5 for sure or going the distance.

Leslie is a warrior, she's got a chin like an anvil. . I'm thinking going with the over 1.5

[Ty$]

^^Unc I'm with you on Stipe but not confident at all.. Werdum has been on fire lately and this fight is in Brazil... One take down it could be game over SM.

If I'm gonna gamble though I'm going with the +odds - Stipe by KO at +295 for me.. I'll gamble fock it.. Since it's a 5 rounder I'm guessing it doesn't go to decision one way or the other..

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Still trying to figure out how to bet this Cyborg fight..

Cyborg has alot of 1st round finishes lately, she typically comes out swinging and hits like man.. She kinda looks like a man too ... So the best bet for odds with a Cyborg play is the 1st round finish..

With that being said - I can't believe the 1st round finish is at -200..

1221 Justino wins in round 1

-200

Cyborg is simply heavily favored in all angles when trying to bet this fight..

I think Werdum/Stipe could easily go to decision.. I'm goin Stipe by DEC

[Hugo de Naranja]

I think Werdum/Stipe could easily go to decision.. I'm goin Stipe by DEC

I think the over is a safe play and I'm on this to go to decision as well. Both guys are tough to finish

[JIBBBY]

^^ IDK about Stipe and Werdum going the distance??

5 rounds is a very long time to go for the big boys especially since both guys have KO power and considering Werdums ability to sub out Stipe if it goes to the ground..

I think any distance bet in this fight is very risky.. Good luck guys, maybe I'm wrong..

[JIBBBY]

I train alongside Leslie .. at El Nino in San Francisco. .

You're right .. her toolset isn't on the same level ..

But I see this going over 1.5 for sure or going the distance.

Leslie is a warrior, she's got a chin like an anvil. . I'm thinking going with the over 1.5

Interesting post..

Ya talked me into it.. I hope she can make a round..

At these odds it's worth a shot I guess.. My only play on this fight..

$90.00

$144.00

Pending

5/14/16 11:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1237 Smith / Justino starts round 2 +160* vs Fight won’t start round 2

[Squareguy]

Anyone taken a closer look at Font/Lineker? Haven't had a chance to look closely at their last couple of fights, but Font's only loss was against a 145'er...might have some potential as a slight underdog.

[blumpkin]

Interesting line movement on sho gun.. Anderson down to -150. He looked great at the weigh ins, Rua looked a bit soft and flabby. Like Anderson here.

[Squareguy]

Interesting line movement on sho gun.. Anderson down to -150. He looked great at the weigh ins, Rua looked a bit soft and flabby. Like Anderson here.

Damn! I put a bet on Anderson at -235...

[GunShard]

I got Anderson at -160.

[GunShard]

On a MMA podcast prediction they are all on Shogun.
One of them changed from Anderson to Shogun.
Hopefully they are wrong. None of them talked about Anderson's wrestling and only talked about Shogun's striking in recent wins.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Anyone taken a closer look at Font/Lineker? Haven't had a chance to look closely at their last couple of fights, but Font's only loss was against a 145'er...might have some potential as a slight underdog.

Lineker has fought way better competition, hits very hard, and has a granite chin. He's 7-2 in the UFC and his losses were a decision to Ali Bagautinov who fought for the belt right after, and a submission to Louis Gaudinot in a fight that he was winning. Font looked good in his first two UFC bouts but they were against George Roop who is not very good, and Joey Gomez who was a UFC debutant stepping in on a week's notice. Lineker is a huge step up for Font so I'm on the guy with a lot more experience and the home crowd behind him

[mirinquads]

On a MMA podcast prediction they are all on Shogun.
One of them changed from Anderson to Shogun.
Hopefully they are wrong. None of them talked about Anderson's wrestling and only talked about Shogun's striking in recent wins.

Oh, an MMA podcast? Seems very credible. Anderson won't hold Shogun down, btw.

[GunShard]

Oh, an MMA podcast? Seems very credible. Anderson won't hold Shogun down, btw.

Didn't want to mention their podcast as a disrespect. Many MMA fighters gave this podcast a shoutout so it's a well known podcast. Their predictions are mediocre but they seem to know MMA better than most.

[JIBBBY]

Oh, an MMA podcast? Seems very credible. Anderson won't hold Shogun down, btw.

Yeah he will after the 1st round when Shogun starts breathing hard.. We've seen Shogun gas and lay on his back in the later rounds.. Cory by decision for me at even odds..

[Mxs1332]

1st parlay pretty conservative. Basically a Jacare/Maia special- Cyborg pads but its practically negligible.
3 units to win 2.38

Pending	3 Team Parlay
				Pending	5/14/16 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Ronaldo Souza -330* vs Vitor Belfort
				Pending	5/14/16 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1202 Cris Justino -1500* vs Leslie Smith
				Pending	5/14/16 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1502 Demian Maia -345* vs Matt Brown

Added 2 units to win 2.66u

Pending	2 Team Parlay
				Pending	5/14/16 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1802 John Lineker -150* vs Rob Font
				Pending	5/14/16 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1902 Patrick Cummins -250* vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira

Second guessing my Lineker over Font pick so i'm hedging with third parlay to cover.


3 units to win 2.46u

2 Team Parlay
				Pending	5/14/16 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1602 Thiago Santos -370* vs Nate Marquardt
				Pending	5/14/16 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1702 Francisco Trinaldo -230* vs Yancy Medeiros

3 units to win 2.46u - Same odds oddly enough

2 Team Parlay
				Pending	5/14/16 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1602 Thiago Santos -370* vs Nate Marquardt
				Pending	5/14/16 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1902 Patrick Cummins -230* vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira

Prop Plays

.25u to win 1.87 units
5/14/16 7:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1907 Nogueira wins by 3 round decision +750*vs Not Nogueira by 3 round decision

1unit to win 2.58 units
5/14/16 7:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1909 Cummins wins inside distance +258*vs Not Cummins inside distance

.25u to win .62 units
5/14/16 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1039 Werdum wins by submission +250*vs Any other result

.25 units to win .92 units
5/14/16 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1041 Werdum wins by TKO/KO +365*vs Any other result

.25units to win 1.73 units
5/14/16 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1047 Werdum wins by 5 rd unanimous decision +690* vs Any other result

[Ty$]

I'm goin hard on the dogs

Stipe Dec
Vitor KO
Shogun KO

[LBfightlife]

Yeah he will after the 1st round when Shogun starts breathing hard.. We've seen Shogun gas and lay on his back in the later rounds.. Cory by decision for me at even odds..

Jibb dawg whats your full card so far? Im cuuuurious..


And did you get any insights from the weigh ins?

[JIBBBY]

Weigh ins, just a few fighters that grabbed my attention....

- Maia looks fit
- Cyborg looks like she has been juicing for sure..
- Vitor has the old man body going on, no juicing..
- Jacare a physical specimen as usual..
- Stipe sized up well against Werdum side to side..

The video replay weigh ins..http://mmajunkie.com/2016/05/video-r...-ins-in-brazil

[JIBBBY]

Jibb dawg whats your full card so far? Im cuuuurious..


And did you get any insights from the weigh ins?

Most of my plays are already logged in this thread.. Still working out a few after weigh ins now.. Not done betting this card just yet..

[Hugo de Naranja]

Weigh ins, just a few fighters that grabbed my attention....

- Maia looks fit
- Cyborg looks like she has been juicing for sure..
- Vitor has the old man body going on, no juicing..
- Jacare a physical specimen as usual..
- Stipe sized up well against Werdum side to side..

The video replay weigh ins..http://mmajunkie.com/2016/05/video-r...-ins-in-brazil

Was hoping to see TRT-tor but looks like Dad Body Vitor instead

[JIBBBY]

Full weigh ins.. Trinaldo and Lineker look extremely fit for them..

[Killer_Demo]

Was hoping to see TRT-tor but looks like Dad Body Vitor instead

TRTor belfort

[UncleChael]

We will get it all back tonight and much more!
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[JIBBBY]

Good card today fellas!!!.. Even with Anderson Silva and Hall out this event is still a good watch!!!

Let's get that pay dirt gents...

[shabang]

checking in, can't fukin wait for today...

only 5 1/2 hours out :/

[Ty$]

We will get it all back tonight and much more!
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Let's see all your picks