UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Oliveira (February 21, 2016)

[TPowell]

You Didn't Answer My question, how are you betting it? AND If you read my other. Post, I mentioned this is just my opinion, just as it is your opinion to lay 4-1 on a favorite that shouldn't even be 2 to 1. I remember you saying the same thing about pettis against alverez, and I clearly won 1200 on plus 400 alverez by dec.....weather you win or lose, bermudez is a horrible bet at current odds, and you'll lose in the long run making these plays. But hey you think you know more the JoshKnows, the fukin best, then go right ahead and lay those odds

I'm sure he means Bermudez by decision Josh. That is +140 now

[JoshKnows46]

I'm sure he means Bermudez by decision Josh. That is +140 now

He's obviously a big boy, he can answer for his self. So what your betting bj and how much? We gonna see if this shoulda been a no play are not going off your opinion, and how much u win or lose on this fight. Since this is just my opinion, and u believe u know more than my opinion. Let's put it to the test...what you betting on this fight, and how much

[JIBBBY]

Dennis Bermudez vs Kawajiri is a good fight.. Can Dennis Bermudez deal with Kawajiri on the ground is the question? Fights typically don't stay standing for very long with Kawajiri..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Dennis-Bermudez-58065

If Bermudez can use his defensive wrestling and keep the fight standing like Guida did he will eventually get the better of Kawa standing.

Bermudez has fought the better comp to date and this could be Kawajiri's toughest test in the UFC next to Guida.. Slight lean Bermudez...Me tinks to use the Asian fade theory when in doubt...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Tatsuya-Kawajiri-1326



This seems like a legit prop play that probably should land in this fight.. Still a bit worried though that Kawajiri could gas and get finished late.. He does have a knack for making it to the final bell in fights win or lose though..

1303 Kawajiri / Bermudez goes 3 rnd distance

<input id="radiox" value="M1_18" name="radiox" type="radio">-135

[JoshKnows46]

I'm sure he means Bermudez by decision Josh. That is +140 now

He's a coward, watch.., he won't say what he bet till after the fight, that's what losing bettors do. It's a simple question, let's see if it shoulda been a no play or not, let's see who's opinion is right...come on bj, man up one time, so I can put you back in your place.

[bjpenn85]

You Didn't Answer My question, how are you betting it? AND If you read my other. Post, I mentioned this is just my opinion, just as it is your opinion to lay 4-1 on a favorite that shouldn't even be 2 to 1. I remember you saying the same thing about pettis against alverez, and I clearly won 1200 on plus 400 alverez by dec.....weather you win or lose, bermudez is a horrible bet at current odds, and you'll lose in the long run making these plays. But hey you think you know more the JoshKnows, the fukin best, then go right ahead and lay those odds

Well...i did cash on alvarez dec. But i did also have pettis KO as an hedge. I bet bermudez straight. But im never big on any fighter at -300. I just cant because i dont trust myself betting on -300 plays anyomore. But i cant see bermudez losing if not fighting like an idiot. Hes just so much better at this point. -400 is probably right here. Your opinion i always respect josh. Youre easily the best. But being overall the best, doesnt mean being the best every time.

[JoshKnows46]

Well...i did cash on alvarez dec. But i did also have pettis KO as an hedge. I bet bermudez straight. But im never big on any fighter at -300. I just cant because i dont trust myself betting on -300 plays anyomore. But i cant see bermudez losing if not fighting like an idiot. Hes just so much better at this point. -400 is probably right here. Your opinion i always respect josh. Youre easily the best. But being overall the best, doesnt mean being the best every time.

I'm the best every time,so your only lay 400 to win 100 straight and no props correct? I'll see you in my office after the fight,gl, you can tell me after the fight if you had any bussiness laying that number.

[bjpenn85]

I'm the best every time,so your only lay 400 to win 100 straight and no props correct? I'll see you in my office after the fight,gl, you can tell me after the fight if you had any bussiness laying that number.

Im not sure if it goes to decision or if he wins inside. Is that a bad indication of win or loss in your opinion? If im right and bermudez win easily, i will see you at my office immediately after the fight, and josh, please take off your shoes at the entrance, self explanatory

[JIBBBY]

Well...i did cash on alvarez dec. But i did also have pettis KO as an hedge. I bet bermudez straight. But im never big on any fighter at -300. I just cant because i dont trust myself betting on -300 plays anyomore. But i cant see bermudez losing if not fighting like an idiot. Hes just so much better at this point. -400 is probably right here. Your opinion i always respect josh. Youre easily the best. But being overall the best, doesnt mean being the best every time.

Yep I really only look for +odds when betting the straights in mma now.. If the fighter I like is heavily favored then I'll immediately look for a better valued prop to play at + odds.. You lessen your chance of losing big money this way and when you do hit you get paid big time..

It's just that simple..

I won't bet any fighter straight over -140 these days.. It's just a smarter way to gamble in MMA I believe.. I will parlay up strong favorites at times but only if I really believe they can win and if I can't find a legit prop to play otherwise....

I'm now starting to skip sketchy fights on a card that I don't have a solid grip on also.. Tightening up my MMA gambling game...

[JoshKnows46]

Im not sure if it goes to decision or if he wins inside. Is that a bad indication of win or loss in your opinion? If im right and bermudez win easily, i will see you at my office immediately after the fight, and josh, please take off your shoes at the entrance, self explanatory

I've done said I have bermudez at -185, which means I believe he wins the majority of the time. I've made this clear, have I not. I've also made it clear that it is foolish to lay that number, and if you were to make any bet in this fight at current odds, it should be on the underdog. I also want it to clear that you will know without a doubt by the end of this fight that you made a mistake in laying the number you did only to win 100, when there are far clearer favorites of the same value or less than the bermudez line that you could have placed that 400 dollars on. By the end of this fight, once they have read 2928 bermudez, and 2928 kawajiri, you will realize u fuked up, the judges will decide your faith. Win and lose doesn't matter,what matters is how much your risking, and it not being a blowout as you foolishly assume,kawajiri will take bermudez down in this fight, ur assumption that bermudez desides where the fight takes place and he has to fight stupid to lose is incorrect, and you'll be shown this. Your better served putting that 400 on brunson or cerrone who are -700 and -900, who win 10 out of 10 fights, the bermudez at -185, that wins 6 out of 10 fights in This matchup. Your taking unnessasary risk, why? This should be a no play, I can't lie and say I hope you win, because you'll gain more from this lose, see you in my office after the fight.

[JoshKnows46]

Then by that time cerrone line will have gone up to 350,and you'll have to bet 1400 just to win your 400 back just chasing that one lose, that will be obvious you shouldn't have layed just to win 100 bucks.the bets you don't make are just as important as the bets you make, I hope you learn that this card,don't worry though, uncle josh got the bail out with brunson/cerrone parlay to put you back at even for the event. Both brunson and cerrone finish within 2 rounds, easy money.

[JoshKnows46]

The believe the best way to bet the other 3 fights, is all the underdogs by dec, Campbell at +380, kawajiri at +400, and Garbrandt at +265...Campbell just needs to avoid sub, gambarant just needs to avoid ko, this is the most likely path to victory for all 3 guys, and highly possible in all 3 fights. I'm considering spiltting up 1 unit and laying $100 on each, or maybe splitting up 2 units and laying $200 on each, with the thought that all could hit, but atleast 1 will, making it a freeroll on the other 2. Thoughts?

[shabang]

Yep I really only look for +odds when betting the straights in mma now.. If the fighter I like is heavily favored then I'll immediately look for a better valued prop to play at + odds.. You lessen your chance of losing big money this way and when you do hit you get paid big time..

It's just that simple..

I won't bet any fighter straight over -140 these days.. It's just a smarter way to gamble in MMA I believe.. I will parlay up strong favorites at times but only if I really believe they can win and if I can't find a legit prop to play otherwise....

I'm now starting to skip sketchy fights on a card that I don't have a solid grip on also.. Tightening up my MMA gambling game...

that's sort of how I am except I have a big problem with getting carried away with parlays.. If the fighter is too expensive then i'll throw them in a parlay with other bets..just harder to hit this way, I've learned to keep my parlays down to 6 or less.

[JIBBBY]

that's sort of how I am except I have a big problem with getting carried away with parlays.. If the fighter is too expensive then i'll throw them in a parlay with other bets..just harder to hit this way, I've learned to keep my parlays down to 6 or less.

For me 2 or 3 team parlays tops these days..

A lucky punch, judging robbery, injury, off night, you just never know even with the heavy favorites at the UFC level... Look at the recent UFC events as alot of dogs have hit... Parlays over 2 or 3 teamers with the heavy favorites I'm sure haven't been hitting for most lately.. Parlay busters suck

[JIBBBY]

Just hit AO ITD.. Was hoping this would be +500 or more but oh well... I think if AO is to beat Donald it will come before the final bell.. Don't think AO is gonna win a decision against Cowboy Cerrone anyways if it does go the distance..

This is a 5 round fight by the way.. Just threw a 50 spot down for now.. If odds improve come fight time I will lay another 50...

$50.00

$212.50

Pending

2/21/16 11:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1005 Oliveira wins inside distance +425* <small>vs</small> Not Oliveira inside distance

[Killer_Demo]

Loser leaves nickname, only room for 1 cowboy

[JoshKnows46]

The believe the best way to bet the other 3 fights, is all the underdogs by dec, Campbell at +380, kawajiri at +400, and Garbrandt at +265...Campbell just needs to avoid sub, gambarant just needs to avoid ko, this is the most likely path to victory for all 3 guys, and highly possible in all 3 fights. I'm considering spiltting up 1 unit and laying $100 on each, or maybe splitting up 2 units and laying $200 on each, with the thought that all could hit, but atleast 1 will, making it a freeroll on the other 2. Thoughts?

nah fuk this, i'm leaving these 3 fights as no plays, i'm too back and forward on these fights, feel like i'm trying to press action, i'm gonna wait for the undercard.

[Deceptakhan]

nah fuk this, i'm leaving these 3 fights as no plays, i'm too back and forward on these fights, feel like i'm trying to press action, i'm gonna wait for the undercard.

Fak it, i liked where your head was at on this one, split .89 unit between those 3 to win 1 units each, throwin the dice

[yisman]

S. Moras has withdrawn from UFC Fight Night 83. Replacement TBA.

[TPowell]

I've already put a couple units (to win) on Marion Reneau at -190 and about to put a couple more (to win) on Trevor Smith by decision

[TPowell]

Trevor Smith would be a great live bet as well. His opponent is a small middleweight with a bad gas tank. If Smith survives the first round, this will go the distance IMO and he should be able to control him on the ground for the big decision win

[JIBBBY]

Trevor Smith would be a great live bet as well. His opponent is a small middleweight with a bad gas tank. If Smith survives the first round, this will go the distance IMO and he should be able to control him on the ground for the big decision win

Will start capping these fight tomorrow and mid week... I'll get back to this post Tpow...

[JIBBBY]

Cowboy Cerrone has most of his success against the shorter fighters lately.. He struggles with the taller guys and Alex Oli is a tall guy with reach and size..

Punches from AO that connect aren't gonna be peppering like Nate Diaz in this gif below..

If only Donald Cerrone learned to tuck that chin of his I'd probably pass on this fight.. He fights too erect via his KB and MT styles..

Nate won this fight by unanimous decision below in the gif just for the record in a 3 rounder...

Another fact - neither fighter has gone past 3 rounds in many many years, AO never.. Something to think about in this 5 rounder..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Donald-Cerrone-15105




Current odds -

<small>UFC Fight Night 83 - Welterweight 5 rounds - Consol Energy Center - Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania - FS1</small>
Sun 2/21		1001 Alex Oliveira		<input id="editx" name="M1_0" size="4"> +240	<input id="editx" name="L1_0" size="4"> o2½ -115
11:30PM		1002 Donald Cerrone		<input id="editx" name="M2_0" size="4"> -280	<input id="editx" name="L2_0" size="4"> u2½ -105

[TPowell]

That fight was literally over 4 years ago

[JIBBBY]

That fight was literally over 4 years ago

And..... Doesn't look like Cowboy Cerrone has changed things up that much with his skill set or fighting style since then.. Perhaps his wrestling is more polished but his striking is no different from 4 years ago.. Maybe he throws more kicks...

The Cowboy Cerrone of 4 years ago isn't that much worse or different from the Cowboy Cerrone of today IMO.. Only difference is Cowboy is 4 years older and probably more banged up..

AO is 5 years younger...

[mirinquads]

Those two matchups have nothing to do with each other.

Jibbbby, you're a funny guy lately my friend.

[JIBBBY]

Those two matchups have nothing to do with each other.

Jibbbby, you're a funny guy lately my friend.

It was the most recent and only tall guy gif I could find.. I was reaching I know..

I know Nate Diaz fights nothing like AO, Diaz bros are volume strikers and AO is not but they are both tall at 6 feet with reach to match Donalds length and reach.. Does seem Cerrone is a bit more challenged fighting against the lengthy fighters though.. Just something else to consider that's all...

Cowboys midsection is pathetically weak... AO needs to kick that area... If I were training to fight Donald Cerrone I would specifically train to land that kick leading up just like RDA did.. It's a glaring weakness with Cowboy Cerrone...



This is a crazy flying knee by Pettis, just had to post it.. Very creative.. Never seen this tried in a fight..

[GunShard]

[JIBBBY]

For all you Cowboy Cerrone nut huggers on this forum I am beginning to think his most likely pathway to victory is by submission.. Donald does have 15 submission wins and AO has been Sub'd out a few times..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Donald-Cerrone-15105





I may still hedge with the Donald Cerrone Sub win prop when it comes out (depends on the odds)... I don't see Cerrone dropping AO with strikes as he has never been KO'd, chin is granite.. Not convinced this fight makes 5 rounds either..

[JoshKnows46]

For all you Cowboy Cerrone nut huggers on this forum I am beginning to think his most likely pathway to victory is by submission.. Donald does have 15 submission wins and AO has been Sub'd out a few times..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Donald-Cerrone-15105





I may still hedge with the Donald Cerrone Sub win prop when it comes out (depends on the odds)... I don't see Cerrone dropping AO with strikes as he has never been KO'd, chin is granite.. Not convinced this fight makes 5 rounds either..

Retreating...lol..backing out of your bet I see...getting cold feet aren't you jibblet? RUN FORREST RUN

[JoshKnows46]

It was the most recent and only tall guy gif I could find.. I was reaching I know..

I know Nate Diaz fights nothing like AO, Diaz bros are volume strikers and AO is not but they are both tall at 6 feet with reach to match Donalds length and reach.. Does seem Cerrone is a bit more challenged fighting against the lengthy fighters though.. Just something else to consider that's all...

Cowboys midsection is pathetically weak... AO needs to kick that area... If I were training to fight Donald Cerrone I would specifically train to land that kick leading up just like RDA did.. It's a glaring weakness with Cowboy Cerrone...



This is a crazy flying knee by Pettis, just had to post it.. Very creative.. Never seen this tried in a fight..

AO doesn't throw body kicks, I told you this already, he only wings punches from his hips with his chin high in the air.. your in big trouble here jibby. For once in your life listen to me and save your money..

And now your just hoping and praying for a diffrent fighter to show up on 2 weeks notice lmao come on now...

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

John Lineker out of UFC Fight Night 83 bout vs. Garbrandt with dengue fever

[JIBBBY]

Retreating...lol..backing out of your bet I see...getting cold feet aren't you jibblet? RUN FORREST RUN

Dude I'm not backing out as I already got hundreds riding on AO.. I protect bank roll always like a smart gambler should.. I'll hedge Donald by Submission if the odds are +... Why not? I'll protect my initial investment like I usually do when given the opportunity.. I don't get greedy..... That prop is not out yet so it's yet to be determined..

AO throws kicks in fights Joshy.. I suggest you watch AO's last three fights and not just assume he's gonna lose and can't throw kicks.. Your capping is obviously one sided, and that side is about collapse in on you..

I'm gonna laugh when your Cowboy loses and you begin to make excuses why he lost and when you then begin to cry..

[JIBBBY]

John Lineker out of UFC Fight Night 83 bout vs. Garbrandt with dengue fever

FOCK!!! Had money riding on him too..

x 4 accounts -

$150.00

$103.40

Pending

2/21/16 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1202 John Lineker -145* <small>vs</small> Cody Garbrandt

[PaperTrail07]

Unreal....i thought you were kidding....cant make taht shit UP...........OUCH....big hit to the card IMO

John Lineker out of UFC Fight Night 83 bout vs. Garbrandt with dengue fever

[bjpenn85]

Dengue feber can be a quite serious illness as well, what are the odds