UFC 195: Lawler vs. Condit (January 02, 2016)

[JIBBBY]

Pea head will get dropped

Should hit this prop then Killa along with Unc...

1933 Duffy wins by TKO/KO

<input id="editx" name="M1_205" size="4"> +180

Is a tempting hedge I can't lie for us Poirier betters.....

May throw a benny and some change down on this prop just for back up.. Won't take up too much of the profits if Poirier does win by KO or ITD... Gonna ponder over this and work the numbers..

[JoshKnows46]

Duffys only shot at winning, is by sub, he's not gonna ko poirier or win a decision. If you want to bet duffy it should be in the distance or sub prob. They aren't close on the feet, dustin is probable better on the ground as well, as duffy racked up sub wins in Ireland were the ground game wasn't as evolved as in the states back then. But it may be close on the ground, duffy can level the playing field to even if he's able to get the fight there, but that's also a question mark. There is really not any value in any duffy play or hedge where the lines stand currently, but if you must, go with the sub prop or in the distance. Don't waste your money on duffy by ko prop.

[JIBBBY]

Duffys only shot at winning, is by sub, he's not gonna ko poirier or win a decision. If you want to bet duffy it should be in the distance or sub prob. They aren't close on the feet, dustin is probable better on the ground as well, as duffy racked up sub wins in Ireland were the ground game wasn't as evolved as in the states back then. But it may be close on the ground, duffy can level the playing field to even if he's able to get the fight there, but that's also a question mark. There is really not any value in any duffy play or hedge where the lines stand currently, but if you must, go with the sub prop or in the distance. Don't waste your money on duffy by ko prop.

My initial thoughts for a hedge play on Duffy was by sub as that is how he gets most of his wins.. However, Poirier is very good on the ground as well and don't see him getting sub'd unless he gets rocked standing first. DP is quick and has very good TD defense also... Duffy's best chance is to catch Dustin standing I believe.. Dustin does have the pea head and could walk into something and get dropped even by Duffy if they are standing and trading..

Still no hedge but thinking about it..

[mirinquads]

Duffys only shot at winning, is by sub, he's not gonna ko poirier or win a decision. If you want to bet duffy it should be in the distance or sub prob. They aren't close on the feet, dustin is probable better on the ground as well, as duffy racked up sub wins in Ireland were the ground game wasn't as evolved as in the states back then. But it may be close on the ground, duffy can level the playing field to even if he's able to get the fight there, but that's also a question mark. There is really not any value in any duffy play or hedge where the lines stand currently, but if you must, go with the sub prop or in the distance. Don't waste your money on duffy by ko prop.

Duffy could easily KO Poirer. Duffys defense is much better, not sure why you think Duffy is a bad striker, he's excellent, and Poirers defense has always been shit.

All the value is still on Poirer though.

[JIBBBY]

DP can get very offensive against strikers that cover up and back up.. Especially if he senses he has rocked them..



He blasted Yancy as well..

[JoshKnows46]

Duffy could easily KO Poirer. Duffys defense is much better, not sure why you think Duffy is a bad striker, he's excellent, and Poirers defense has always been shit.

All the value is still on Poirer though.

The southpaw stance will make it hard for duffy to connect on dustin, and rain down combinations, duffy doesn't have the power porier has, hes not laying him out with one punch, he has only faced bums, it's easy to look better than you are, i relise he has looked good standing, he only has 6 ko's in Boxing and mma combined. Dustin isn't easily kod as people keep assuming for some reason, maybe u or. Someone can clear that up for me why yall believe he has a weak chin...

[JIBBBY]

Duffy's handy work.. (last 3 fights) http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Joseph-Duffy-17052

Jake Lindsey


Juilien Boussuge



Ivan Jorge

[Shagdogy]

I think all the value is with Poirier at plus odds, but for me, his path to winning is with faster, more crisp striking. Getting in and getting out with combos and leaving Duffy missing on a lot of his punches. If Poirier can get inside and fight faster than Duffy, I love it. I don't think he'll one punch KO him, but I do think he can do it with an accumulation of punches. However, with the size advantage that Duffy has, I worry that Poirier may find himself stuck on the outside in a slower paced fight. Still worth the risk IMO since Poirier is a much more seasoned fighter and should be able to come in with the winning plan.

[JoshKnows46]

DP can get very offensive against strikers that cover up and back up.. Especially if he senses he has rocked them..



He blasted Yancy as well..

Good point. Id like to add, Duffy needs to be the aggressor to be affective, He won't be in this fight. Coupled with coming of a concussion, it's not just the risk of getting concussed again, but as you mentioned earlier, it changes you, could possibly make him more tentive, less aggressive, he does well when his opp is backing up, which he has had the benifit of having not faced any dangerous strikers, dustin isn't gonna be backed down by him.

[JoshKnows46]

I think all the value is with Poirier at plus odds, but for me, his path to winning is with faster, more crisp striking. Getting in and getting out with combos and leaving Duffy missing on a lot of his punches. If Poirier can get inside and fight faster than Duffy, I love it. I don't think he'll one punch KO him, but I do think he can do it with an accumulation of punches. However, with the size advantage that Duffy has, I worry that Poirier may find himself stuck on the outside in a slower paced fight. Still worth the risk IMO since Poirier is a much more seasoned fighter and should be able to come in with the winning plan.

Agreed, nice assessment, up to the point of being worried, duffy has nothing for him.

[JIBBBY]

I've decided the safest hedge in this fight for reasonable value is -

1909 Duffy wins inside distance

<input id="editx" name="M1_193" size="4"> +100

Can keep this fight very simple and conservative and expect a smaller return with this double sided play - Bet DP straight at +165 and hedge Duffy ITD at +100.. Easy money on DP at +65 or a no play if Duffy wins...

(Remember folks - Duffy has had only 1 fight go to decision in 15 pro fights, oh and Dustin Poirier hasn't gone to a decision in his last 5 fights or in 3 years also)

You are now witnessing the strength of prop betting hedge knowledge..

[Shagdogy]

Agreed, nice assessment, up to the point of being worried, duffy has nothing for him.

Thanks! Good to know we're seeing it the same. I may end up with the same card as you - I like Condit, Tumenov, and Poirier, but I just might hitch the wagon to Tumenov big. He looks like a man that won't be stopped right now.

[mirinquads]

The southpaw stance will make it hard for duffy to connect on dustin, and rain down combinations, duffy doesn't have the power porier has, hes not laying him out with one punch, he has only faced bums, it's easy to look better than you are, i relise he has looked good standing, he only has 6 ko's in Boxing and mma combined. Dustin isn't easily kod as people keep assuming for some reason, maybe u or. Someone can clear that up for me why yall believe he has a weak chin...

Nah, the "look better than you are" thing is a fallacy. If you know what you're looking at technique wise, you can see if a person is good or not. Duffy has way better defense than Poirier, more precise strikes, better timing and is longer. Southpaw stance will make it easier for Duffy to land is best punch, the right straight.
Again, Poirer got rocked against almost everyone he struck with at 145, which is why people think he has a bad chin. I think his chin is much better at 155, but his defense is still awful. Look at the way he squares up and overextends in those gifs Jibby linked.

Odds are still off, but saying there's 0 chance of a Duffy KO is just wrong.

[JoshKnows46]

No it is not a fallacy. What I'm saying is he looked good, but he won't look good against poireir. What I'm saying is technique wise, he's not good as he looks. He looks good because there is no resistants to his action, there is no talent in front of him, it's basically beating up on punching bags, there's no techiquie or skill in front of him to judge his full game, he's been allowed to Be a front runner in his fights, push his pace, his pressure, never been in a real fight, never faced any adversery, anything that alters his course of fighting, never has to make a adjustment to his constant forward pressure, just rolled through his opp, u never heard of a padded record... he " finally" gets welcomed to the ufc Saturday night. Less then 1 percent chance he kos dustin in this fight, if he doesn't find a sub, he loses. If he's smart he will shoot for a takedown early.

[mirinquads]

I don't know why you keep telling me that mate. I'm on Poirer. But saying he has bad technique is untrue on every level. It's like you need to talk your self into that theres ABSOLUTELY NO CHANCE your bet loses. Ofcourse there's a chance Duffy wins, and ofcourse there's a chance that he KO's Poirer.

[Shagdogy]

I just can't get over Duffy's fight with Jake Lindsey. One, I don't think it should be overlooked that that is his only fight in the U.S., and two, Lindsey was an absolute joke. Like JK said, he offered no resistance at all. He may be up to the task vs Poirier, but he hasn't fought anyone yet that has the skills to test him in the same way. Combine that with his lack of fights in U.S. and the fact that he's coming off a concussion recently and there's enough of a reason for Poirier to be at least even money. Getting him at plus odds is an easy play. He has so much more cage experience against top level guys that he will absolutely be the biggest test to date for Duffy, and he has looked great recently as well. I won't completely discount Duffy but from a betting angle getting plus money for Poirier is an easy choice.

[JoshKnows46]

I don't know why you keep telling me that mate. I'm on Poirer. But saying he has bad technique is untrue on every level. It's like you need to talk your self into that theres ABSOLUTELY NO CHANCE your bet loses. Ofcourse there's a chance Duffy wins, and ofcourse there's a chance that he KO's Poirer.

I know what I see, there's close to no chance of a ko from duffy, bottomline, I'm saying it because it's fact, I don't need to talk myself into anything, what I'm trying to do is talk you or whoever else isn't on dustin, on to dustin. It would be a mini miracle if duffy kod dustin, can it happen yes, but its basically like betting against Ronda Rousey in a Rousey fight before she got knocked out, the chance of it happening should be at odds of +1500, just Watch what happens and apologize to me after the fight. We're on the same play, so you'll enjoy this.

[mirinquads]

I'm saying it because it's fact, I don't need to talk myself into anything

No it's not.

Apologize? Who are you fkn kidding? Rofl.

If you feel like the odds is under 1 percent, you have like 2/3 of your bankroll on Not Duffy by KO at like -260 or whatever right?

[JIBBBY]

Keep in mind all but 1 of Duffy's fights has been held in the United States, all others in England or Ireland.. All were against very average fighters at best, Josh you are right.. He fought a bum in Boussuge in Las Vegas whom was a submission grappler that got caught with the knee coming in on Duffy... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Julien-Boussuge-53771

Dustin Poirier is a huge step up in competition and this fight also takes place in the States as well.. Cards are stacked up against Duffy.. I honestly think Duffy should be the dog in this match up going in - end of story....

Duffy probably gets dropped and in round 1.. DP should be highly motivated knowing he is the dog going in and expected to lose as well..

[JoshKnows46]

No it's not.

Apologize? Who are you fkn kidding? Rofl.

If you feel like the odds is under 1 percent, you have like 2/3 of your bankroll on Not Duffy by KO at like -260 or whatever right?

Lol remember when you said there would be no squash matches tonight, and I said

Haha, ok, just apologize for questioning me, once the nights over. Holloway, mcgregor, and rockhold are squash matches.

I still never got my apology from that event...as you can clearly see, I'm a little better judge of fighters and how they matchup, so just take the money I give you, and don't question what I say, if this fight stays on the feet, it will be another one of those squash matches. Duffy needs to atleast attempt takedowns to slow poirior down and hopefully for him he can get a takedown or 2, any maybe get a sub, that is his path to victory, not standing up and striking with dustin.

[JoshKnows46]

I'm just fuc.king with u about apologizing btw lol but just keep a mental note of what I said and agknowledge my greatness to yourself during this fight.

[mirinquads]

Lol remember when you said there would be no squash matches tonight, and I said

Haha, ok, just apologize for questioning me, once the nights over. Holloway, mcgregor, and rockhold are squash matches.

I still never got my apology from that event...as you can clearly see, I'm a little better judge of fighters and how they matchup, so just take the money I give you, and don't question what I say, if this fight stays on the feet, it will be another one of those squash matches. Duffy needs to atleast attempt takedowns to slow poirior down and hopefully for him he can get a takedown or 2, any maybe get a sub, that is his path to victory, not standing up and striking with dustin.

Holloway was in a close fight, and he looked like shit. Rockhold lost the first, won the second and was losing the third clearly until Weidman threw the shittiest spinning kick in history. It was either Mcgregor early, or Aldo late, first punch was surprising though.


I do remember you getting like all your picks wrong, and disappearing for a couple of months too though. Where's my apology for that shitshow bro?

Nah, it's all good. This forum is mostly devoid of good cappers, and you bring some discussion, so I appreciate that. But if you legit think Duffy chance of a KO is sub 1 percent, why don't you have 2/3 of your bankroll on that line? Makes no sense to me.

[JoshKnows46]

Holloway was in a close fight, and he looked like shit. Rockhold lost the first, won the second and was losing the third clearly until Weidman threw the shittiest spinning kick in history. It was either Mcgregor early, or Aldo late, first punch was surprising though.


I do remember you getting like all your picks wrong, and disappearing for a couple of months too though. Where's my apology for that shitshow bro?

Nah, it's all good. This forum is mostly devoid of good cappers, and you bring some discussion, so I appreciate that. But if you legit think Duffy chance of a KO is sub 1 percent, why don't you have 2/3 of your bankroll on that line? Makes no sense to me.

I'm not putting 2 3rds of my bankroll on anything. It doesn't need to make sense to you what I do with my finaces, and what I choose to or not to bet on, nor does it take away from my statement. And your view of those 3 fights is severely warped, u must lost a ton that night to have such perceptive and woulda, coulda, shouldas.its a good forum I agree, you bring some good laughes. Lost all my bets, lmfao, you must have the wrong person, I consistently win, consistently turn a profit every single month, if I lost 2000 on one card, which is merely 6.8 units for me, that's hardly worth me shedding a single tear over, I whip my ass with that lol. I become ghost when I choose, to prove that point, after I sweep this card, and win every fight i bet on, I'll take off posting the next 3 months. Money rolls in either way....

[mirinquads]

Then you're an idiot, if you have think you have an edge that big. But it is what it is. No reason to get all butthurt.

[JoshKnows46]

I don't THINK I have a edge, I turn a profit every month, I'm not butthurt, but that's the second or 3rd time someone mentions I left because I lost a event, so I don't have to hear that ridicioulous statment anymore from anyone, I'll just take a few months off after a winning card. I'm a problem solver.

[mirinquads]

The odds imply there's a 22% chance that Duffy KO's Poirier. If you think there's less than 1% chance of this accruing, you should be hammering that line. Thats that. If you don't you're either mathematically handicapped, or is not as confident in your pick as you try to imply.

[JIBBBY]

Josh keep doing your thang, don't let Miri upset ya.... Miri gets on the rag at times and needs a Snickers... Bit of a Diva...

[JoshKnows46]

The odds imply there's a 22% chance that Duffy KO's Poirier. If you think there's less than 1% chance of this accruing, you should be hammering that line. Thats that. If you don't you're either mathematically handicapped, or is not as confident in your pick as you try to imply.

I had 3 paragraphs written out to explain this to you, but my phone died and deleted it so fuc.k it. Summarized poirior has implied odds to win 33%, that's a greater diffrental from the percentage I give him compared to the 22 percent to 1 percent prob. Yes duffy not by ko is less risky, virtually no risk, but I have to risk more to win less instead of invest less to win more on a bet I give a higher percentile diffrence, wider gap. I only bet 3 units based on the things I don't know, not on the things I know, gambling isnt math, it's feel, I feel 3 units is sufficient based on the things I don't know. Which is can duffy get the fight to the ground, how much better or is his ground game better than dustins. When I make bets I look for reasons to lay off a play more than reasons to make a play, and that's how I determine how much to bet, or if to bet at all.

[JoshKnows46]

My feeling both guys want to strike, this fight stays standing and duffy gets knocked out, so should I lay around 2500 to win 600, when I can lay 100 to win 600. Seems like a no brainer to me. When your confident in your bets, you don't need to make unnessasary bankroll risks were they are not needed, outcome of profit will be the same either way, one fight at a time, I'm not trying to break them over my knee every fight, I pick my spots, I like my spot in this fight

[opinionator]

love your work josh

[JIBBBY]

Write ups and predictions as usual... Good reads....

Combatpress - http://combatpress.com/2015/12/toe-t...d-predictions/

MMAmania Prelims part 1 - http://www.mmamania.com/2015/12/28/1...363.1449624206

Bump - Final event write ups came out..

Bleacher report (complete guide to event) - http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...wler-vs-condit

MMAMANIA - Part 2 prelims - http://www.mmamania.com/2015/12/29/1...-las-vegas-mma

[MMA_Oracle]

I've been MIA on these forums because I was deeply into the NFL but I really agree w Mirin on the topic. Duffy is a much better striker than Dustin is, technically speaking. IDK why everyone has a man crush on Dustin and thinks he starches Duffy

[TPowell]

I've been MIA on these forums because I was deeply into the NFL but I really agree w Mirin on the topic. Duffy is a much better striker than Dustin is, technically speaking. IDK why everyone has a man crush on Dustin and thinks he starches Duffy

what has Duffy done to make you think he's so great? Jake Lindsey fan?

[UncleChael]

Thanks 27 wins 27 ko's wow, never heard of him, will have to check him out, can't beat that percentage. So Connor has 2nd highest ko percentage ever?

Melvin Manhoef went 24 wins with 23 finishes and now is 30 wins with 28 finishes. Maybe 3rd.

[Shagdogy]

what has Duffy done to make you think he's so great? Jake Lindsey fan?

Thank you! I've been saying this. That's his only US fight and Lindsey was a total joke. If anyone thinks that win was worth anything go back and watch that fight.