UFC 195: Lawler vs. Condit (January 02, 2016)

[PaperTrail07]

And I agree with JIBBBY..Larkin has looked better than ever--amazing even----but I will NOT bet against Turmenov--guys boxing is on another level and he has the finishing ability in any round....turmenov should prob be minus 300

[PaperTrail07]

TY JIBBBS--- Honestly I have been on FIIRE for like 2 months...everything I bet is a winner---even had STL -3 +855 for 100$ lol...Wash -3 +257 meant to bet 100 accidently hit 300 LOL.....when it rains it pours I guess LOL...

[JIBBBY]

TY JIBBBS--- Honestly I have been on FIIRE for like 2 months...everything I bet is a winner---even had STL -3 +855 for 100$ lol...Wash -3 +257 meant to bet 100 accidently hit 300 LOL.....when it rains it pours I guess LOL...

I think we all go thru those red hot spells in gambling every now and then where you can do no wrong. Love those times in gambling! Ya get paid too, enjoy the ride Paper and hope it lasts.

Larkin is tough as nails and I can't count him out even against the very skilled striking Russian.. We see what happens at the end of this week???

[PaperTrail07]

Agree---Larkin knows he is in for a tough one----agree just hope this wave continues LOL....

[JIBBBY]

Only thing that concerns me is odds on Condit in earlier rounds are favored more than later rounds. Any idea why this would be?

Odds makers believe the fight will end sooner then later simply put BELMONT if the opening lines dictate that...

I'm sure if you go over both fighter past records you will find both have many early round finishes.. Odds makers have computer programs to average all stats to then formulate and arrive at these betting lines.. Public then bets and moves those lines accordingly...

[UncleChael]

A gust of wind of wind hits Poirier, and he does the chicken dance.

[JIBBBY]

A gust of wind of wind hits Poirier, and he does the chicken dance.

True that Unc!!! Mcgregor didn't even connect.. LOl..

In all fairness though this all happened at the other weight class.. He was also like a deer caught in headlights against McGreg.. Poirier has looked very solid in his last few fights at this normal weight..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Dustin-Poirier-50529

[UncleChael]

True that Unc!!! Mcgregor didn't even connect.. LOl..

In all fairness though this all happened at the other weight class.. He was also like a deer caught in headlights against McGreg.. Poirier has looked very solid in his last few fights at this normal weight..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Dustin-Poirier-50529

McGregor is right. Every single contest, he gets into, he gets hit, and goes to one knee.

[JoshKnows46]

McGregor is right. Every single contest, he gets into, he gets hit, and goes to one knee.

First punch hit him behind the head, so did the next two. Plus mcgregor has power, and can do that to anyone in his weight class or lightweight, mcgregor has highest ko percentage of any boxer or mma fighter in history,, Just saying.. if you want to talk about dustins chin, that's the worse possible example of what your claiming. Need a bigger sample size, then possibly the p4p best ever, that's his only ko lose, also in a weight class not suited for him.

[UncleChael]

First punch hit him behind the head, so did the next two. Plus mcgregor has power, and can do that to anyone in his weight class or lightweight, mcgregor has highest ko percentage of any boxer or mma fighter in history,, Just saying.. if you want to talk about dustins chin, that's the worse possible example of what your claiming. Need a bigger sample size, then possibly the p4p best ever, that's his only ko lose, also in a weight class not suited for him.

Irish Joe Duffy is going to whoop pea head's ass, all day. Duffy already has a win over your p4p best ever. Weight class ain't suited for him because McGregor is in that weight class and a bunch of other killers that can take out Dustin.. now he's moving up to bigger guys? Good luck.

[mirinquads]

Terrible example. Poirers head absorbs the full impact on Mcgregors shot, and it's the back of the head. Just because it bounces doesn't mean it loses any power.

If anything you should be questioning Poirers defense. He does that shitty "answer the phone" block, even when ducking down, which only works with boxing gloves on, and leaves huge holes when fighting with 4 ouncers, as you see in that gif. Poirer has had chin issues at 145, but he drained him self too much. At 155 it has looked absolutely solid. Hasn't faced a puncher like Duff man though, but we shall see.

And Edwin Valero has a 100% KO ratio in boxing, so no on that Conor statement. Even though he has a sick KO percentage still.

[JoshKnows46]

Thanks 27 wins 27 ko's wow, never heard of him, will have to check him out, can't beat that percentage. So Connor has 2nd highest ko percentage ever?

[JoshKnows46]

Irish Joe Duffy is going to whoop pea head's ass, all day. Duffy already has a win over your p4p best ever. Weight class ain't suited for him because McGregor is in that weight class and a bunch of other killers that can take out Dustin.. now he's moving up to bigger guys? Good luck.

Ummm no. Gonna be a good fight, duffy most likely loses by ko or decision.

[UncleChael]

Ummm no. Gonna be a good fight, duffy most likely he loses by ko or decision.

Duffy is going to crack that little chin and Ireland is going to go nuts!

[JoshKnows46]

Duffy is going to crack that little chin and Ireland is going to go nuts!

Big risk your laying in juice on the underdog duffy. If duffy wins, it's because he lucked up and caught a sub. He's not on dustin nor mcgregors level on the feet. Big step up in comp, and he will fall flat on his face figuratively and literally.

[UncleChael]

Big risk your laying in juice on the underdog duffy. If duffy wins, it's because he lucked up and caught a sub. He's not on dustin nor mcgregors level on the feet. Big step up in comp, and he will fall flat on his face figuratively and literally.

He was a pro boxer.. he hits Poirer once.. he's going down.

[JoshKnows46]

I think your allowing the mcgregor ko to cloud your judgment if you think duffy will be able to hang with dustin on the feet, u relize dustin has kod 4 of his last 5 opp, with the one lose being to mcgregor? Dustin is a well rounded dangerous opp, much stronger harder to takedown in this weightclass, will be hard to find a sub, and every round starts on the feet, it's like taking candy from a baby getting him at plus odds. This is mma.

[UncleChael]

Okay, we'll see.

[mirinquads]

He was a pro boxer.. he hits Poirer once.. he's going down.

He couldnt KO most of the bums he fought in boxing.


Don't know Josh, but he's up there. Wilder and Golovkin i believe is in the 90% plus percent and that's over a larger sample size, but in MMA he's probably around the top

[JIBBBY]

Big risk your laying in juice on the underdog duffy. If duffy wins, it's because he lucked up and caught a sub. He's not on dustin nor mcgregors level on the feet. Big step up in comp, and he will fall flat on his face figuratively and literally.

Duffy is not the underdog Josh, Dustin P is at +165.... I think you ment to say that...

<small>UFC 195 - Lightweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada - UFC Fight Pass</small>
Sat 1/2		1901 Dustin Poirier		<input id="editx" name="M1_9" size="4"> +165	<input id="editx" name="L1_9" size="4"> o1½ -125
7:30PM		1902 Joe Duffy		<input id="editx" name="M2_9" size="4"> -190	<input id="editx" name="L2_9" size="4"> u1½ +105

Notes on props for Poirier if you think he will win -http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Dustin-Poirier-50529

His last 2 fights ended with him winning in the 1st round. Does this trend continue?

1915 Poirier wins in round 1

<input id="radiox" value="M1_176" name="radiox" type="radio">+850

His last 5 fights have ended by way of KO..

1929 Poirier wins by TKO/KO

<input id="radiox" value="M1_183" name="radiox" type="radio">+600

I tried this myself for a 50 spot... I didn't want to get greedy, Poirier does have submission wins and one over Max Hollaway....... I may still try the KO prop though...

Pending

1/2/16 7:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1905 Poirier wins inside distance +434* <small>vs</small> Not Poirier inside distance

[JIBBBY]

TY JIBBBS--- Honestly I have been on FIIRE for like 2 months...everything I bet is a winner---even had STL -3 +855 for 100$ lol...Wash -3 +257 meant to bet 100 accidently hit 300 LOL.....when it rains it pours I guess LOL...

I also see you just won $250 real cash in the BTP contest..

26

PaperTrail07

41-27-2

60.29 %

L 1

142.0

+18.12

$250.00

[mirinquads]

I also see you just won $250 real cash in the BTP contest..

26

PaperTrail07

41-27-2

60.29 %

L 1

142.0

+18.12

$250.00

Y'all know if you can enter this if you arent in US?

[JIBBBY]

Y'all know if you can enter this if you arent in US?

The BTP contest is over Miri.. 1st place winner got paid $7500 USD which is pretty nice of SBR to give out.. I believe there were about 1000 members who entered this contest at start..

Yes, you could have gotten in and paid Miri but you fell asleep at the wheel with this contest, it started 16 weeks ago and ended yesterday...You didn't have to be an SBR PRO to enter to win the cash prizes.. Pretty sure you could have entered being out of the Country as long as you had a phone number to give up at registration time...

You did need to know American Football though or tail someone on fire like Paper to hit that pay dirt..

[Sanity Check]

I'm wondering if this comeback is too soon for Joe Duffy. Conventional wisdom says fighters should take 6 or more months off after sustaining a concussion, to ensure their brain heals as well as it can. Joe Duffy is making his comeback 3 months after sustaining a concussion, he must have sparred and taken blows to the head leading up to this fight. That could be bad in the sense that a concussed brain is said to be much more susceptible to injury. Duffy's concussion was said to be minor. On the flipside, there are some doctors who swear there is no such thing as minor concussions.

[Sanity Check]

And Edwin Valero has a 100% KO ratio in boxing, so no on that Conor statement. Even though he has a sick KO percentage still.

I think Conor has the highest KO/TKO rate in terms of active fighters. Ronda Rousey has a 100% finish rate on her wins. That's pretty impressive.

[JIBBBY]

I'm wondering if this comeback is too soon for Joe Duffy. Conventional wisdom says fighters should take 6 or more months off after sustaining a concussion, to ensure their brain heals as well as it can. Joe Duffy is making his comeback 3 months after sustaining a concussion, he must have sparred and taken blows to the head leading up to this fight. That could be bad in the sense that a concussed brain is said to be much more susceptible to injury. Duffy's concussion was said to be minor. On the flipside, there are some doctors who swear there is no such thing as minor concussions.

^^Depends on the degree of concussion.. I think there are minor and major ones..

I've had the most sever concussion during a head plant fall onto the cement ground years ago, it took me around 6 months to get back to my normal self.. Changed my mood, felt depressed which I never felt before in my life, zapped my energy and motivation to work out and be social during the first 3 months of recovery time.. I had to fight through all that and did.. You don't even want to get tapped on the head for a year after that experience..

I'm assuming Duffy had a mild concussion or he wouldn't be fighting Sanity.. If it was a bad concussion with slight swelling on the brain he'd be out of this fight, if by chance it was a bad one though it could be easier for him to get knocked out again.. I'm sure he is fine though..

Some people get knocked out and are fine the next day.. Just depends...

[JoshKnows46]

He'll be re-concussed in this fight. Atleast He has a built in excuse for the ufc to keep the hype train rolling.

[UncleChael]

Poirier sucks.

[JIBBBY]

He'll be re-concussed in this fight. Atleast He has a built in excuse for the ufc to keep the hype train rolling.

^^You guys talked me into it.. Dustin for the KO it is... Fock it, I'll take a stab at it for small...

Pending

1/2/16 7:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1929 Poirier wins by TKO/KO +600* <small>vs</small> Any other result

[JoshKnows46]

Poirier sucks.

Are you serious??..you're incorrect in your assessment.

[JoshKnows46]

^^You guys talked me into it.. Dustin for the KO it is... Fock it, I'll take a stab at it for small...

Pending

1/2/16 7:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1929 Poirier wins by TKO/KO +600* <small>vs</small> Any other result

I just made the same play for 100, but also bet 100 on Poirier wins inside distance for +434 as backup, incase he gets the sub over the ko. Duffy hasn't faced anyone close to this level of competitor, wrong guy is favored, this line seems purely based on mma math and hype, of dustin losing to the best version of mcgregor and duffy beating the worse version of mcgregor. You have to fully take advantage of oppurtunities such as these.

[JIBBBY]

I just made the same play for 100, but also bet 100 on Poirier wins inside distance for +434 as backup, incase he gets the sub over the ko. Duffy hasn't faced anyone close to this level of competitor, wrong guy is favored, this line seems purely based on mma math and hype, of dustin losing to the best version of mcgregor and duffy beating the worse version of mcgregor. You have to fully take advantage of oppurtunities such as these.

Yep, $60 on the KO prop and $50 on the ITD myself.. Let's get this JOSH!!

Duffy is a tough out though so let's see if these props stick...

[JoshKnows46]

Yep, $60 on the KO prop and $50 on the ITD myself.. Let's get this JOSH!!

Duffy is a tough out though so let's see if these props sticks...

Duffy is skilled, he could pull the upset, though his opp have been scrubs, he's not a scrub, but he's not as skilled as Poirier, not as crisp quick and powerful, as poirior, not as well rounded, poiriers not coming off a concusion, piorier has fought ufc caliber guys, hes also a southpaw which should give him all kinds of problems, Poirier doesn't have any pressure of fighting at home or being favored, all we can do win or lose, is put our money on the right side, after that let the chips fall where they may.

[JIBBBY]

Duffy is skilled, he could pull the upset, though his opp have been scrubs, he's not a scrub, but he's not as skilled as Poirier, not as crisp quick and powerful, as poirior, not as well rounded, poiriers not coming off a concusion, piorier has fought ufc caliber guys, hes also a southpaw which should give him all kinds of problems, Poirier doesn't have any pressure of fighting at home or being favored, all we can do win or lose, is put our money on the right side, after that let the chips fall where they may.

Agreed.. I'm probably gonna throw another $100 on the Poirier straight at + odds after weigh ins just in case this fight goes to decision which it probably won't.. So I'll have about $200 riding on Poirier in total.. No hedge plays with Duffy in this one..

I also have the fight Not going the Distance in a parlay leg below..

Pending

1/2/16 7:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1904 Fight won’t go 3 round distance -215* <small>vs</small> Poirier / Duffy goes 3 round distance

I'm just hoping the odds stay around this +165 for Poirier come fight time...

1901 Dustin Poirier

<input id="radiox" value="M1_9" name="radiox" type="radio">+165

[Killer_Demo]

Pea head will get dropped