UFC Fight Night: Mir vs. Duffee (July 15, 2015)

JIBBBY · 07-15-15, 12:14 AM

Originally posted by UncleChael

Big boy is gonna be slooooooowwwwwww.. and don't get me started with Mir's defense

If you say so Unc..

Mir might give Todd a grappling nightmare if this fight hits the ground with that 20 pound weight advantage though.. Just saying.. Good luck with Todd as I'll be rooting for ya... Dude hits hard...

I will say this - Todd Duffee will win this fight by KO standing or pounding Mir out on the ground only if he does, he's not going the distance to win on decision and he won't tap out Mir either..

For best betting value on Duffee me tinks one of these 2 props or both are the call....

1025 Duffee wins in round 1

<input id="editx" name="M1_11" size="4"> +105

1041 Duffee wins by TKO/KO

<input id="editx" name="M1_19" size="4"> -155

Beats betting Duffee straight to win at -200 anyways...

THE_LOCKSMITH · 07-15-15, 03:18 AM

BASSENCO · 07-15-15, 10:44 AM

After looking at all the stats, I think Duffee is going to KO Mir. I don't think it will go to the ground unless Duffee wants it to go to the ground.
Of course, I'm brand new to this, so anything ANYBODY says carries greater weight than what I say. But Duffee is really heavy handed, so I think he will KO Mir.

JIBBBY · 07-15-15, 12:08 PM

Duffee has the biggest chin ever.. Wonder if that thing helps him absorb punches better?

Unwritten Law · 07-15-15, 12:13 PM

I got Duffee by KO. i'll be going to the fights this afternoon!

JIBBBY · 07-15-15, 12:31 PM

Originally posted by Unwritten Law

I got Duffee by KO. i'll be going to the fights this afternoon!

Cool Unwritten enjoy...

Didn't know you lived just down the road in San Diego from me..

mirinquads · 07-15-15, 12:56 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Duffee has the biggest chin ever.. Wonder if that thing helps him absorb punches better?

Not at all. It's easier to hit however.

TPowell · 07-15-15, 01:08 PM

no love for Dwyer? Should be a firefight. I get he has the worst chin, but anything can happen when you get two explosive strikers.

TPowell · 07-15-15, 01:24 PM

Also, Dwyer does have the reach advantage by a few inches. I think at close to 4 to 1, he isn't a bad gamble.

JIBBBY · 07-15-15, 01:37 PM

6 Team Parlay #422523545

Mixed Martial Arts (Game) Moneyline
Both must fight for action.
UFC Fight Night 71 - Valley View Casino Center, San Diego, California, United States
(1011) Andrew "Highlight" Craig +215 Jul 15/15@07:00p
Competitor: (1010) Lyman "Cyborg" Good
Mixed Martial Arts (Game) Moneyline
Both must fight for action.
UFC Fight Night 71 - Valley View Casino Center, San Diego, California, United States
(1015) Igor Araujo +265 Jul 15/15@08:00p
Competitor: (1014) Sean "Tarzan" Strickland
Mixed Martial Arts (Game) Moneyline
Both must fight for action.
UFC Fight Night 71 - Valley View Casino Center, San Diego, California, United States
(1017) Masanori Kanehara -115 Jul 15/15@08:30p
Competitor: (1016) Rani Yahya
Mixed Martial Arts (Game) Moneyline
Both must fight for action.
UFC Fight Night 71 - Valley View Casino Center, San Diego, California, United States
(1023) Matt Dwyer +325 Jul 15/15@10:00p
Competitor: (1022) Alan "Brahma" Jouban
Mixed Martial Arts (Game) Moneyline
Both must fight for action.
UFC Fight Night 71 - Valley View Casino Center, San Diego, California, United States
(1025) James "Moon Walker" Moontasri +200 Jul 15/15@11:00p
Competitor: (1024) Kevin "The Mowtown Phenom" Lee
Mixed Martial Arts (Game) Moneyline
Both must fight for action.
UFC Fight Night 71 - Valley View Casino Center, San Diego, California, United States
(1027) Marion "Belizean Bruiser" Reneau +170 Jul 15/15@11:30p
Competitor: (1026) Holly "The Preacher's Daughter" Holm

Web

US$ 3.00

US$ 2216.93

Why do I have an irie feeling this could possibly be a night of dog wins? Just incase the $3 dog lotto ticket... Little insurance..

JIBBBY · 07-15-15, 01:40 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

no love for Dwyer? Should be a firefight. I get he has the worst chin, but anything can happen when you get two explosive strikers.

He's got the length and reach going in. Anything is possible...

mirinquads · 07-15-15, 01:44 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

Also, Dwyer does have the reach advantage by a few inches. I think at close to 4 to 1, he isn't a bad gamble.

Dwyer TKO +650 isn't a bad bet at all.

Jouban is a better striker though.

TPowell · 07-15-15, 01:49 PM

Will lock in later

Duffee by TKO and/or UNDER 1 round
Ferguson
Reneau
Lee by Decision
Dwyer
Yahya

BASSENCO · 07-15-15, 02:09 PM

Yes

Originally posted by mirinquads

Not at all. It's easier to hit however.

But Mir sticks his chin way out.

Like the nurse said to Fred Sanford: "Tuck it in there. Tuck it in."
And Fred said back, "I'll tuck mine in, if you'll tuck yours in."

PaperTrail07 · 07-15-15, 02:21 PM

Can mir make another epic night happen #1) MMA Fighting
Selection : F. Mir 7/15/2015 9:35PM - (PST) Money Line +165 for Game

#2) MMA Fighting
Selection : J. Thomson 7/15/2015 9:05PM - (PST) Money Line +195 for Game

#3) MMA Fighting
Selection : M. Reneau (W) 7/15/2015 8:35PM - (PST) Money Line +185 for Game

#4) MMA Fighting
Selection : J. Moontasri 7/15/2015 7:35PM - (PST) Money Line +220 for Game

#5) MMA Fighting
Selection : M. Dwyer 7/15/2015 7:05PM - (PST) Money Line +375 for Game

#6) MMA Fighting
Selection : Y. Meza 7/15/2015 6:35PM - (PST) Money Line +170 for Game

Risking : 5.00 To Win : 4,566.83 USD

PaperTrail07 · 07-15-15, 02:25 PM

Mir going to lose and well see him again in 8 months time for another retirement fight lol

JIBBBY · 07-15-15, 02:33 PM

^ The thing about these lotto parlays Paper for example if you hit the first 5 of your 6 teamer you can hedge big on that final 6th play and still win big money.. I've done that a few times over the years with these 5 dollar parlays when getting to that final leg...

Haven't nailed down a big one yet this year but I am due...

PaperTrail07 · 07-15-15, 02:44 PM

100% right there w ya---and its 5-10$ lets be real here haha...GL tonight JIBBBBY

Originally posted by JIBBBY

^ The thing about these lotto parlays Paper for example if you hit the first 5 of your 6 teamer you can hedge big that final 6th play and still win big money.. I've done that a few times over the years with these 5 dollar parlays when getting to that final leg...

Haven't nailed down a big one yet this year but I am due...

JIBBBY · 07-15-15, 02:50 PM

^^ Thanks Paper.. You too..

JAKEPEAVY21 · 07-15-15, 03:05 PM

some steam coming in on Duffee, El Cucuy and Holm..

PaperTrail07 · 07-15-15, 03:09 PM

Agree----for some reason Im thinking Andrade should be like -700....am I wrong here? Moras brings nothing to the table here.....

PaperTrail07 · 07-15-15, 03:12 PM

OMG SHE WON lol

JAKEPEAVY21 · 07-15-15, 03:14 PM

PaperTrail07 · 07-15-15, 03:14 PM

She didnt even deserve that win lol

PaperTrail07 · 07-15-15, 03:17 PM

Any thoughts here

Wed 7/15	24441	I. Alcantara		<input name="M1_11" id="checkboxx" type="checkBox" data-dpmaxz-eid="35">-115
4:35PM (PST)	24442	K. Casey		<input name="M2_11" id="checkboxx" type="checkBox" data-dpmaxz-eid="36">-105

.......Casey is a total penetrating bum coming off PED use.....however---if he gets the takedown he can grind out the W....thoughts...?

the xx · 07-15-15, 03:25 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

Any thoughts here

Wed 7/15	24441	I. Alcantara		<input name="M1_11" id="checkboxx" type="checkBox" data-dpmaxz-eid="35">-115
4:35PM (PST)	24442	K. Casey		<input name="M2_11" id="checkboxx" type="checkBox" data-dpmaxz-eid="36">-105

.......Casey is a total penetrating bum coming off PED use.....however---if he gets the takedown he can grind out the W....thoughts...?

I like the under here, personally. Thinking Casey steamrolls or gasses

JIBBBY · 07-15-15, 03:40 PM

Originally posted by the xx

I like the under here, personally. Thinking Casey steamrolls or gasses

Agreed.. Value at +100..

<small>UFC Fight Night 71 - Middleweight 3 rounds - Valley View Casino Center, San Diego, California - UFC.TV</small>
Wed 7/15	2001 Kevin Casey	<input id="radiox" value="M1_10" name="radiox" type="radio">-105	<input id="radiox" value="L1_10" name="radiox" type="radio">o2½ -120
7:30PM	2002 Ildemar Alcantara	<input id="radiox" value="M2_10" name="radiox" type="radio">-115	<input id="radiox" value="L2_10" name="radiox" type="radio">u2½ +100

JIBBBY · 07-15-15, 03:43 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

Agree----for some reason Im thinking Andrade should be like -700....am I wrong here? Moras brings nothing to the table here.....

This one might go under as well.. Again see value at +150..

I also agree Andrade by slaughter... -375 is probably a gift on the straight.. Too high for me to play it straight though on principle but did slam it in a few parlays.

<small>UFC Fight Night 71 - Bantamweight 3 rounds - Valley View Casino Center, San Diego, California - FS1</small>
Wed 7/15	1701 Sarah Moras	<input id="radiox" value="M1_7" name="radiox" type="radio">+313	<input id="radiox" value="L1_7" name="radiox" type="radio">o2½ -170
9:00PM	1702 Jessica Andrade	<input id="radiox" value="M2_7" name="radiox" type="radio">-375	<input id="radiox" value="L2_7" name="radiox" type="radio">u2½ +150

PaperTrail07 · 07-15-15, 03:45 PM

Moras is just so so weak....-375 is a gift....I dunno..dont like betting under w women as their power drops so much after round 1...

Originally posted by JIBBBY

This one might go under as well.. I also agree Andrade by slaughter... -375 is probably a gift on the straight.. Too high for me to play it straight but did slam it in a few parlays.

<small>UFC Fight Night 71 - Bantamweight 3 rounds - Valley View Casino Center, San Diego, California - FS1</small>
Wed 7/15	1701 Sarah Moras	<input name="radiox" id="radiox" type="radio" value="M1_7">+313	<input name="radiox" id="radiox" type="radio" value="L1_7">o2½ -170
9:00PM	1702 Jessica Andrade	<input name="radiox" id="radiox" type="radio" value="M2_7">-375	<input name="radiox" id="radiox" type="radio" value="L2_7">u2½ +150

mirinquads · 07-15-15, 03:46 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

This one might go under as well.. Again see value at +150..

I also agree Andrade by slaughter... -375 is probably a gift on the straight.. Too high for me to play it straight though on principle but did slam it in a few parlays.

Does not compute...

beermankirk · 07-15-15, 03:47 PM

taking both girl fights under 2.5 rounds...

Holm/Renault +110

Morris/Andrade +150

JIBBBY · 07-15-15, 03:49 PM

Originally posted by mirinquads

Does not compute...

Not gonna lay $375 to win $100 in any one fight.. Will parlay it up to minimise risk though.. Compute now Miri?

JIBBBY · 07-15-15, 03:53 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

Moras is just so so weak....-375 is a gift....I dunno..dont like betting under w women as their power drops so much after round 1...

At 135 these girls are a little bigger and pack more finishing power then lets say the 115 pounders... I personally would have pegged this under at -150 and not +150 IMO...

Also Andrade is a finisher and a beast.. Only went the distance twice in 16 pro fights..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jessica-Andrade-100715

mirinquads · 07-15-15, 03:59 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Not gonna lay $375 to win $100 in any one fight.. Will parlay it up to minimise risk though.. Compute now Miri?

Nop, it's retarded. You don't minimize any risk by doing it that way. Either you cap the fighter as having value at that line or you don't.

JIBBBY · 07-15-15, 04:10 PM

Originally posted by mirinquads

Nop, it's retarded. You don't minimize any risk by doing it that way. Either you cap the fighter as having value at that line or you don't.

Dissagree - I play the entire card as you know...

Example on minimising risk with parlay play -

If I parlay up 2 or 3 heavy favorites on a card that I really believe will win I can risk $100 to win $100 maybe.. If I play each straight to win $100 I'm then risking maybe $1500 or more to win $300 perhaps..

You miss one of those heavy favorite straight win bets it can ruin your night and put you in the red just like that.... You miss the parlay for a $100 you can rebound easily...

I'm not into picking up change in front of a steam roller Miri