UFC Fight Night: Mir vs. Duffee (July 15, 2015)

[BASSENCO]

Holm is going to get bitch slapped..literally

On your sayso, I just watched a few of Reneau's videos. She's a very smart, level headed fighter, who never stops. I don't know enough about UFC to say either way, but she's a great fighter, all right! If Holm relies on that left kick as much as she has done, I think Reneau is smart enough, fast enough, and hard hitting enough with her hands to stick close, jam the kick, and overwhelm her with strong punching.

[JIBBBY]

Combatpress event write up and predicitons are in - http://combatpress.com/2015/07/toe-t...d-predictions/

Bleacherreport prelims - http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...rd-predictions

[the xx]

jibby,

my input on yahya -

yes, he appears to suck and be one dimensional but banking on this hasn't been the sharpest move so far. I lost big on Bedford, was shocked by ranis aggression

[the xx]

not to mention, he beat mike brown at 145 if I recall. point is, he tends to exceed expectations. his girly mannerisms and puny look make him seem weaker than he really is imo

[JIBBBY]

XX thanks for the input^^^ I typically like to fade Asians but saw a little something in this guy when he fought and beat Bruce Leeroy in his UFC debut last fight.. He's quick and illusive so I think it might be trouble for Rani when trying to grab and take him down.. Kanehara has a 5" height advantage and will surely hold an advantage in the standup with his reach and quickness..

Like you said though Rani does exceed expectations at times and does hold the ground advantage with his jits skills.. I will ponder on this play further..

[JIBBBY]

Also reconsidering the first fight with Andrew Craig as having a chance for the win now..

Seems like every UFC event in recent times the dog wins to start things off.. If that trend continues Andrew Craig gets the win.. That's surely not a stamp to bet on but that trend exists...

Andrew Craig kinda sucks and has looked less then good in recent fights.. He's tough though, durable and can grind... UFC veteran now. Fought the better competition.. Lost 2 in row and surely needs this win to stay employed.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Andrew-Craig-63284

Lyman Good UFC debut, cleaning up in the lessor MMA organizations.. Still a bit unproven against even mediocre UFC level competition.. Hmmm? http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Lyman-Good-14207

Craig is also coming down in weight to 170 and that should be a good thing.. Lyman Good is taking this fight on very short notice..

Do you dare take a stab at the dog Andrew Craig with all considered???? I think I might ride the trend one more time and try Andrew Craig after further review at the +235..

<small>UFC Fight Night 71 - Middleweight 3 rounds - Valley View Casino Center, San Diego, California - UFC.TV </small>
Wed 7/15		2101 Andrew Craig		<input id="editx" name="M1_11" size="4"> +235	<input id="editx" name="L1_11" size="4"> o2½ -165
7:00PM		2102 Lyman Good		<input id="editx" name="M2_11" size="4"> -275	<input id="editx" name="L2_11" size="4"> u2½ +145

Bleacher report write up on this fight (copy and paste)

Kicking off the card are a pair of welterweights, as late replacement Lyman Good looks to kick things off on the right foot with the UFC against Andrew Craig.
Craig is a former middleweight making the journey down to 170 for this one, as he may have been a touch undersized at his former home. He is a brawler who will not wow you with technique as much as he will with toughness and his ability to touch his opponent's chin.
He finds himself in a must-win situation here, as he is 1-3 in his last four. Despite a split-decision win over Chris Leben in that stretch, Craig has suffered losses to Ronny Markes, Luke Barnatt and Cezar Ferreira and is fighting for the first time in over a year.
As for Good, he took this fight on very late notice for the injured Edgar Garcia but will look to take advantage of this opportunity. The former Bellator champion is a striker with good knockout power and improving takedown defense, though I doubt he has to worry about Craig shooting on him here.
Since failing to make The Ultimate Fighter 19 house, Good has gone undefeated on the East Coast circuit. Wins in that stretch include a submission of UFC veteran Nah-Shon Burrell and a knockout of TUF 16 cast member Matt Secor.
Craig certainly will make this entertaining, but upright, where his strength lies, is also Good's strength. He is better, which is why the former Bellator champion will be victorious.

[JoshKnows46]

^^The Canadian Dwyer I suppose has a punchers chance against Jouban with his 8 wins all coming by way of KO, but Jouban has shown to have a solid chin, never KO'd to the head. Those 8 KO wins are all arguably against suspect opponents for the Canadian too.... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Matt-Dwyer-53933

I think the logical play is still Jouban as he hits like a truck but those odds are stiff... I probably will look for a KO prop angle or shoot for the under for better value rather then play the straight come fight time...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Alan-Jouban-65878

Jouban is all around the much better fighter, he could win by Ko/sub or decision, however he chooses to win, Dwyer leaves himself open for the Ko, jouban has a better chin and better recovery time, and he has more power, aggression, he'll overwhelm Dwyer. I'm parlaying him with everything I have, if you wanta play it a little smarter, bet Dwyer by Ko for insurance, but that has a slim to none chance of hitting. Doesn't hurt to get the insurance if your unsure though.

[JIBBBY]

Jouban is all around the much better fighter, he could win by Ko/sub or decision, however he chooses to win, Dwyer leaves himself open for the Ko, jouban has a better chin and better recovery time, and he has more power, aggression, he'll overwhelm Dwyer. I'm parlaying him with everything I have, if you wanta play it a little smarter, bet Dwyer by Ko for insurance, but that has a slim to none chance of hitting. Doesn't hurt to get the insurance if your unsure though.

You're probably right Josh and wish ya luck with all your Jouban parlays but I think I'm just gonna roll the dice with the under in this fight. Both these guys are heavy hitters and can finish.. For value and making a play outside a parlay with reasonable odds I think this is the call..

I am with ya and like Jouban for the win though..

<small>UFC Fight Night 71 - Welterweight 3 rounds - Valley View Casino Center, San Diego, California - FS1</small>
Wed 7/15		1501 Matt Dwyer		<input id="editx" name="M1_5" size="4"> +350	<input id="editx" name="L1_5" size="4"> o1½ +110
10:00PM		1502 Alan Jouban		<input id="editx" name="M2_5" size="4"> -440	<input id="editx" name="L2_5" size="4"> u1½ -130

[JoshKnows46]

You're probably right Josh and wish ya luck with all your Jouban parlays but I think I'm just gonna roll the dice with the under in this fight. Both these guys are heavy hitters and can finish.. For value and making a play outside a parlay with reasonable odds I think this is the call..

I am with ya and like Jouban for the win though..

<small>UFC Fight Night 71 - Welterweight 3 rounds - Valley View Casino Center, San Diego, California - FS1</small>
Wed 7/15		1501 Matt Dwyer		<input id="editx" name="M1_5" size="4"> +350	<input id="editx" name="L1_5" size="4"> o1½ +110
10:00PM		1502 Alan Jouban		<input id="editx" name="M2_5" size="4"> -440	<input id="editx" name="L2_5" size="4"> u1½ -130

Jouban could take him down if he also wants to play it safe and it could eek over that, doubtful but possible. But I like that under too, I'll be on it, and I'll be on jouban in the 1st round when it comes out, and/or fight won't see the 2nd at plus odds.

[JIBBBY]

Jouban for the lay and pray would blow up that under.. Not his style though as his star is on the rise.. I think he looks to finish early, or like you said hits the sub win before they get all sweaty and slippery if the fight does hit the ground early on...

I also see some value with this under... Thinking of hitting this up as well.. Manny fights balls out usually.. Something should give one way or the other before 2.5 rounds one would think.. If Jorgensen is washed up it won't last.. Manny could injure himself, gas out or get finished himself possibly....

<small>UFC Fight Night 71 - Bantamweight 3 rounds - Valley View Casino Center, San Diego, California - FS1 </small>
Wed 7/15		1301 Scott Jorgensen		<input id="radiox" value="M1_3" name="radiox" type="radio">+130	<input id="radiox" value="L1_3" name="radiox" type="radio">o2½ -190
11:00PM		1302 Manvel Gamburyan		<input id="radiox" value="M2_3" name="radiox" type="radio">-150	<input id="radiox" value="L2_3" name="radiox" type="radio">u2½ +165

[JoshKnows46]

Jouban for the lay and pray would blow up that under.. Not his style though as his star is on the rise.. I think he looks to finish early, or like you said hits the sub win before they get all sweaty and slippery if the fight does hit the ground early on...

I also see some value with this under... Thinking of hitting this as well.. Manny fights balls out usually.. Something should give one way or the other before 2.5 rounds one would think..

<small>UFC Fight Night 71 - Bantamweight 3 rounds - Valley View Casino Center, San Diego, California - FS1 </small>
Wed 7/15		1301 Scott Jorgensen		<input id="radiox" value="M1_3" name="radiox" type="radio">+130	<input id="radiox" value="L1_3" name="radiox" type="radio">o2½ -190
11:00PM		1302 Manvel Gamburyan		<input id="radiox" value="M2_3" name="radiox" type="radio">-150	<input id="radiox" value="L2_3" name="radiox" type="radio">u2½ +165

I don't have a good feel for that fight, I can see many different ways it plays out, Jorgensen is tough to finish, and I could see him out wrestling manning as manning gets over aggressive in the stand-up. Could be looking at a lay n pray fest here. From either guy really. Or a quick ko. Lol I don't know, But that's one fight I'm staying away from.

[JIBBBY]

I don't have a good feel for that fight, I can see many different ways it plays out, Jorgensen is tough to finish, and I could see him out wrestling manning as manning gets over aggressive in the stand-up. Could be looking at a lay n pray fest here. From either guy really. Or a quick ko. Lol I don't know, But that's one fight I'm staying away from.

Spotty Jorg has been stopped short of the final bell in 4 of his last 7 fights.. Just saying... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Scott-Jorgensen-16852

Nick Lents with his wrestling did go the distance with Manny 2 fights ago.. Nick Lents is a much better fighter and MMA wrestler in my opinion then Scott Jorgenson though..

[JoshKnows46]

Spotty Jorg has been stopped short of the final bell in 4 of his last 7 fights.. Just saying... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Scott-Jorgensen-16852

Nick Lents with his wrestling did go the distance with Manny 2 fights ago.. Nick Lents is a much better fighter in my opinion then Scott Jorgenson though..

Your right, wow, I just marked this one down as a no play going off memory of the two, I hadn't looked into it, but some of those guys are much better than manny though. He looks to be on the down slide just looking at his last few, without actually watching the fights. Weird the under is that high. Think I'll still stay away from this fight, also staying away from the ferguson fight and the main event. I could see those two fights going either way as well. You might have something with that under play though.

[JoshKnows46]

Manny by sub? Seems to be the trend with Jorge. Guillotine perhaps as Jorge goes for a takedown. Think I'll look more into this one, you got me interested.

[JIBBBY]

also staying away from the ferguson fight

Oh I think Tony Ferguson is way too slick and fast for Josh Thompson in the stand up.. I think Ferguson is gonna pick Josh apart.. Could knock him out... Just my opinion.

I'm loving Tony Ferguson in this match up!!! Josh Thompsons best fighting days are behind him I think at age 36.. Losing 4 of his last 6 fights.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Josh-Thomson-2394

Tony Ferg is on roll and killing it right now.. Rattled off 5 wins in a row and surely has the momentum going in.. He's clearly on a mission for a title run and climbing in the UFC ranks with each win.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Tony-Ferguson-31239

With his slight reach and height advantage this fight should be a clinic for Tony Ferguson.. At -190 I'm on it... Parlay and straight..

[JIBBBY]

Manny by sub? Seems to be the trend with Jorge. Guillotine perhaps as Jorge goes for a takedown. Think I'll look more into this one, you got me interested.

Was thinking the same.. Sub Prop not out yet... ITD manny is decent value though..

1309 Gamburyan wins inside distance

<input id="radiox" value="M1_41" name="radiox" type="radio">+251

[JoshKnows46]

Oh I think Tony Ferguson is way too slick and fast for Josh Thompson in the stand up.. I think Ferguson is gonna pick Josh apart.. Could knock him out... Just my opinion.

I'm loving Tony Ferguson in this match up!!! Josh Thompsons best fighting days are behind him I think at age 36.. Losing 4 of his last 6 fights.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Josh-Thomson-2394

Tony Ferg is on roll and killing it right now.. Rattled off 5 wins in a row and surely has the momentum going in.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Tony-Ferguson-31239

With the slight reach and height advantage this fight should be a clinic for Tony Ferguson.. At -190 I'm on it... Parlay and straight..

Castillo out grappled ferguson though, I don't see any reason Josh can't do the same, it's only a 3 rd fight, he could steal 2 rounds with takedowns, I love ferguson as a fighter, he has made me a lot of money, josh won't finish him but I could see him easily getting a decision. For me it's a coin flip fight, josh is a smart fighter, he knows he needs this fight on the ground, plus he out grappled bendo just 2 fights ago, he was winning that fight. Thompson by decision I'm thinking is the best value in that fight, but if it was even money, I'd put a small play on ferguson. Can't play it at those odds. At those odds, for me, it's Josh or no play, better spots on the card to lay that juice.

[Sanity Check]

Spotty Jorg has been stopped short of the final bell in 4 of his last 7 fights.. Just saying... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Scott-Jorgensen-16852

That's not due to a deficiency in Scott's abilities as a fighter, btw.

Its a result of Jorgensen focusing more on his pro gamer career, than his pro fighter career. He does Call of Duty FPS gaming on a competitive level. If he drops his pro gaming and focuses 100% on his fight career his results could easily 180.

[JIBBBY]

Castillo out grappled ferguson though, I don't see any reason Josh can't do the same, it's only a 3 rd fight, he could steal 2 rounds with takedowns, I love ferguson as a fighter, he has made me a lot of money, josh won't finish him but I could see him easily getting a decision. For me it's a coin flip fight, josh is a smart fighter, he knows he needs this fight on the ground, plus he out grappled bendo just 2 fights ago, he was winning that fight. Thompson by decision I'm thinking is the best value in that fight, but if it was even money, I'd put a small play on ferguson. Can't play it at those odds. At those odds, for me, it's Josh or no play, better spots on the card to lay that juice.

I hear ya... Thomspon maybe fired up in this fight - http://www.mma-core.com/news/Fight_N...vision/1105378

Still liking Ferguson though and he still did enough to win that fight against Castillo.. I'm sure Josh will get a few takedowns but like Castillo that will not be enough to win rounds.. I see Ferguson being more active and racking up more points when they are standing.. Ferguson will also be very active and is slick with his chokes on the ground.. Remember, Ferguson just blew thru Gleison Tibau in a round and choked him out.. Not easy to do...

I simply think Ferguson has still been improved since his fight with Castillo and Josh Thompson maybe has faded a bit in the last year or so.. We will see what happens????

[JIBBBY]

That's not due to a deficiency in Scott's abilities as a fighter, btw.

Its a result of Jorgensen focusing more on his pro gamer career, than his pro fighter career. He does Call of Duty FPS gaming on a competitive level. If he drops his pro gaming and focuses 100% on his fight career his results could easily 180.

So Sanity are you gonna fade Jorgy and go with Manny G then in this bout?

[Sanity Check]

So Sanity are you gonna fade Jorgy and go with Manny G then in this bout?

I might skip it and look for easier plays.

The main thing I notice about Gamburyan is training at Glendale with Ronda Rousey could have re-motivated him.

The only thing I really notice about Jorgensen, I think he has the same skin condition Michael Jackson had and no one seems to notice. I'm completely clueless as to where he is in his career or what he's up to, aside from him dividing his time and energy between being a pro gamer and pro fighter.

If I had to pick would probably wager on Gamburyan, he has looked all around better than Jorgensen over the last few years. But neither appears to have done much to evolve their skills or improve their overall game. It could come down to whoever wants it more.

[JoshKnows46]

I hear ya... Thomspon maybe fired up in this fight - http://www.mma-core.com/news/Fight_N...vision/1105378

Still liking Ferguson though and he still did enough to win that fight against Castillo.. I'm sure Josh will get a few takedowns but like Castillo that will not be enough to win rounds.. I see Ferguson being more active and racking up more points when they are standing.. Ferguson will also be very active and is slick with his chokes on the ground.. Remember, Ferguson just blew thru Gleison Tibau in a round and choked him out.. Not easy to do...

I simply think Ferguson has still been improved since his fight with Castillo and Josh Thompson maybe has faded a bit in the last year or so.. We will see what happens????

The thing is josh is overall a better fighter than those guys, he got tricks up his sleeve, crafty veteren, quick hands, I believe he can hang with fergusiin in the feet, and on the ground and I don't think he's washed up as others seem to think. That's two guys I wouldn't want to bet against. This is Tony's toughest test, but tony improves every single fight, he's motivated and I believe he wants it more than josh, but josh is gonna make him work for it. In my mind, it could go either way, but the value is with thomson at those odds. I'll be rooting for ferguson 100% though.

[JIBBBY]

Weigh ins coming up in a few hours.. I'm curious to see if Andrew Craig makes the new 170 weight easily or not......

Todd is a bad man Mir will be facing.. Thinking Mir by submission prop maybe?

1035 Mir wins by submission

<input id="editx" name="M1_16" size="4"> +422

Weigh in live stream link -

http://mmajunkie.com/2015/07/watch-todays-ufc-fight-night-71-weigh-ins-live-on-mmajunkie-at-7-p-m-et

[UncleChael]

Weigh ins coming up in a few hours.. I'm curious to see if Andrew Craig makes the new 170 weight easily or not......

Todd is a big man Mir will be facing.. Thinking Mir by submission prop maybe?

1035 Mir wins by submission

<input id="editx" name="M1_16" size="4"> +422

Weigh in live stream link -

http://mmajunkie.com/2015/07/watch-t...ie-at-7-p-m-et

Todd Duffee KOs Murr in the first three minutes.. that is all.

[richie360]

Todd Duffee KOs Murr in the first three minutes.. that is all.

My feeling also, just think Duffee is going to blow Mir away.

[richie360]

I also see value in the under 2.5 rounds in the Jorgensen fight. Wouldn't be surprised for it to go over, but odds are off in our favour in my opinion.

[mirinquads]

Mir has waaaay better boxing. Just take the under if you want Duffee tbh

[JIBBBY]

Mir has waaaay better boxing. Just take the under if you want Duffee tbh

Probably doesn't get out of the 1st round is my thinking... Going with this myself...

1058 Fight won't start round 2

<input id="editx" name="M2_27" size="4"> -135

[JIBBBY]

Todd Duffee KOs Murr in the first three minutes.. that is all.

I think you could be right Unc the more I think about this fight.. Like I said Todd is a bad boy.. Mir could go fetal after the first clean blow... Mir tries to run and box Todd probably walks him down and drops him....

Like to think Mir could weasel out a sub from the fetal postiion but I doubt it will happen...

Is this a gauranteed lock or what? lol..

1004 Fight won't go 5 round distance

<input id="radiox" value="M2_0" name="radiox" type="radio">-1610

[JIBBBY]

Hitting these 2 props now -

1331 Gamburyan wins by submission <input id="radiox" value="M1_81" name="radiox" type="radio">+805

1211 Holm wins by 3 round decision

<input id="radiox" value="M1_52" name="radiox" type="radio">+155

[JIBBBY]

[JIBBBY]

Mir came in 20 pounds heavier then Todd.. Didn't see that coming...

[UncleChael]

Kevin Lee vs. James Moontasri best staredown? I remember Moontasri knocking around Joe Ellenberger in round 1 pretty bad , might have gassed himself, but everyone thought Joe was done coming out to round 2 but he manage to edged a decision.

[UncleChael]

Mir came in 20 pounds heavier then Todd.. Didn't see that coming...

Big boy is gonna be slooooooowwwwwww.. and don't get me started with Mir's defense

[UncleChael]

El Cucuy - don't blink while watching this guy... Tony Ferguson.