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Beltran vs Fabio Under 2.5 rds at +185 is a great value pick. Sure both dudes are game and have great chins. I just see someone getting a finish by body punch or gassing and getting stopped! Then again you can remember what Texeria did to Fabio
And Fagio didnt get finished. Just gut pick and I've been hot as hell lately.
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both kingsbury and pokrajac fights were very close and Maldanado could have won both. stop wiki capping you oracle and watch some fights.A video with a cool dubstep song of him crushing one can. That makes you think Maldonado is a contender?
He has lost 3 out of his last 4 fights and got a decision win over Roger Hollett. He got KOed by Texeira, and lost a decision to Kingsbury (who has subsequently lost his last 3 fights) and lost a decision to Pokrajac (who has lost 2 of his last 3 and one NC).
and he got hit in the balls vs hollet this affected his performance for sure.
too funny man, too funny lmao 
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Am I the only one who sees great value with Dillashaw and Assuncao going to dec? @-110
Also like Palhares 3+points handicap at plus money!
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Gonna toss a decent amount of money on Palhares, weight-cut looked good. 3U at +240. Silva-Alcantara parlay anyone?Comment -
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Reason I took fight goes the distance is that I think its a close fight and being in Brazil betting this prop protects you from a bad dec. And its not like you get heaps more for Dillashaw via dec anyway.
I can see the Palhares Pierce fight being a sloppy kickboxing match actually and I think it goes over 1.5. I think its a close fight that will likely go to the judges score cards. I like Palhares ML.
To be honest the Stun Gun and Erick Silva fight is one of the most I keep going back and forth on, At first it was Erick Silva all the way via stoppage but Stun Gun has looked amazing in his 2 most recent fights but the level of competition has been low. I personally dont even rate Jon Fitch that high and Erick lost to him...I think Erick deserves to be the favorite but maybe Ive psyched myself out here thinking about it too much .. I like Erick Silva ML for a medium bet is my final call.Comment -
The Oracle's UFC 29 bets and explanations:
1. Silva over Hamill (-350) risking 6 units to win 1.75
Silva is badass and should easily beat a coming out of retirement, aging Hamill. Silva has only lost to 3 guys, all title contenders and all in their prime. Silva easily manhandled Vera, and knocked out Feijao in the first round. Hamill's coach even abandoned him for taking this fight. His coach said that the UFC is in effect cutting Hamill by giving him a fight they know he is going to lose. I agree with Hamill's coach. The only thing that worries me a bit is that Silva didn't make weight. That could mean he slacked off in training or there was some problem. Most likely result: Silva by TKO, likely in 1st round.
2. Pierce over Palhares (-270) risking 12 to win 4.25.
Palhares is a can. He isn't bright, and you need to be smart and strategic to be a good fighter. He hasn't beaten anyone who is a decent fighter in the UFC. UFC fans are impressed by his submissions and the one where he hurt a can with that leglock, and his big muscles, so they think he might be good. That has made the line appealing to bet on Pierce. Pierce almost beat an in-his-prime Koscheck, beat Seth Bacynski, and TKOed David Mitchell, all fighters who I believe would beat Palhares. Pierce is a good wrestler knows how to get good position in order to avoid submissions. Pierce has good standup. When Palhares faces a good standup fighter, he wilts. He doesn't like being punched in the face and feeling pain. Most likely result: Pierce by 2nd round TKO.
Shields/Maya o4.5 (-110) risking 2.75 to win 2.5.
Shields vs Maya will be a close fight. It's conceivable Shields could win it by getting a lot of jabs in and ending up outpointing Maia, which is why I didn't want to bet on Maia to win even though he has looked great lately. Maia doesn't have any knockout power in his striking, and Shields has never been submitted. Both fighters have good stamina, this will easily be the kind of fight where when standing, the fighters will trade jabs. There will be a lot of clinches, and some takedowns where the guy on the bottom will have good defense. Neither fighter will get hit so hard and feel so much pain that they won't be intelligently defending themselves, so the fight will be a long, grueling match that will end in a decision victory, most likely to Maia.
Mitchell/Cabral o2.5 (+140). Risking 2.85 to win 4
Cabral is good but has fought all cans so far. He is 10/10 and has submitted everyone at least by the 2nd round. He isn't a Rhonda Rhousey and is so much better than everyone that he gets the submission on good fighters in the 1st round. His last fight in 2011 he fought a 42 year old Sakuraba and didn't get the submission until the 2nd round. Mitchell is a veteran who has never been submitted. He will likely know how to guard against the submissions and try and keep the fight standing. Mitchell has never KOed anyone, so it's unlikely he will KO Cabral. The fight will probably be mostly taking place on the ground, where Cabral will try and take it, but Cabral won't be able to get the submission.
Most likely result: Cabral by decision.
Beltran/Maldonado o2.5 (-245). Risking 2.5 to win 1.
Both of these fighters can take a lot of punishment. They just don't quit, that is one of their appeals. I have no doubt they can bang with each other for 15 minutes without giving up. Neither one has one punch knockout power. Beltran got KOed by Johnson, but Johnson is a big heavyweight and hits way harder than Maldonado. Maldonado will be a treat for Beltran who is used to slugging with heavyweights. That said, Maldonado is quick and savvy enough that I don't think Beltran will be able to have a big advantage and be able to finish him. Most likely result: Beltran by decision.Comment -
A couple things to add about Palhares. I don't think he's completely bad, like it may have seemed how I wrote above, he is strong and quick, but he's just not Pierce's caliber. Also, watching the weigh-ins, he looked like he was about to collapse. I think his weight cut will definitely affect his energy in the fight.Comment -
I don't see why anyone would gas in this fight, neither one of them are really gassers. They both have granite chins and no history of going for submissions. I think its +185 for a reason, frankly it should probably be even higher.Beltran vs Fabio Under 2.5 rds at +185 is a great value pick. Sure both dudes are game and have great chins. I just see someone getting a finish by body punch or gassing and getting stopped! Then again you can remember what Texeria did to Fabio And Fagio didnt get finished. Just gut pick and I've been hot as hell lately.Comment -
Pierce/Palhares doesn't go three rounds at -200 is a pretty solid bet given how palhares looks.Comment -
BTW does Dillashaw throw lead-hand straight punches?Comment -
I'm not sure can you take Paul Harris at any given time, doing anything, and conclude there's something wrong it's alarming. You see, there's always something wrong with him. Unless he starts stabbing himself with a fork on the scale, it's normal functioning level Paul Harris up there.Comment
