UFC Fight Night: Maia Vs Shields (October 09, 2013)

[Sykes]

Jake Shields 'strikes' are a joke, I won a bit on his last one cause of them but Maia actually hits proper. I see Maia winning, dude should stay more active, talk shit, has a shot at that title if he takes the finger out.

[TheRifleman]

no need for gloves for this fight

[v1y]

. Leg lock submissions only work against fighters that aren't very good.

That's some A level analysis right there.

[OracleAdam]

That's some A level analysis right there.

Really? Name one good fighter in the past 3 years who has tapped to a leglock in the UFC or Bellator. I can name one: Jim Miller submitted Oliveira with a kneebar in Dec 2010. However, Oliveira was only 20 years old at the time and inexperienced.

[Crassus]

Really? Name one good fighter in the past 3 years who has tapped to a leglock in the UFC or Bellator. I can name one: Jim Miller submitted Oliveira with a kneebar in Dec 2010. However, Oliveira was only 20 years old at the time and inexperienced.

It's an uncommon submission, if you want to go off of that it would be better to look at how many leglock submissions are attempted against top fighters that succeed.

[OracleAdam]

It's an uncommon submission, if you want to go off of that it would be better to look at how many leglock submissions are attempted against top fighters that succeed.

The reason why it's uncommon is because it rarely works and fighters know that. There are plenty of opportunities to try it.

[Crassus]

The reason why it's uncommon is because it rarely works and fighters know that. There are plenty of opportunities to try it.

Or the fighter attempting it has a low chance of success, difference there. Palhares has BJJ on the level that if there is an opportunity his chance of success is much higher than the average high level fighter.

[OracleAdam]

Or the fighter attempting it has a low chance of success, difference there. Palhares has BJJ on the level that if there is an opportunity his chance of success is much higher than the average high level fighter.

Ya, we'll have to see if he tries it in his upcoming fight. He certainly wasn't successful vs Belcher with 5 or so perfect opportunities for a heel hook.

[rosietop]

Or the fighter attempting it has a low chance of success, difference there. Palhares has BJJ on the level that if there is an opportunity his chance of success is much higher than the average high level fighter.

according to oracleadam fighters should have stopped using flashy front kicks and spinning back fists since they too had an extremely low chance of finishing a fight at one stage in time..

[Vaughany]

That's some A level analysis right there.

Top of the food chain analysis indeed

[OracleAdam]

In this interview, Joey Beltran says "I promise you violence, but it might not be the violence you want. We've got families at home who depend on us to get the win".

I think that's one sign that the fight may go the distance if Beltran will just try to get a decision win.

[rosietop]

Im pretty sure most people think this fight is going the distance. Both are very very tough durable guys. You need some seriously juiced Heavy Weight power behind your punches to stop these guys like Lavar Johnson.

The biggest issue is with the over 2.5 in Beltran fight is that the odds do not represent value.

Im actually not even going to play this card much at all max 3 fights thats it.

Too many close mathups and close mathups in Brazil mean questionable judges calls which I dont want to bank on. Why not wait? we have like 2 ufc's in a row after this one, ufc Cain vs jds and England.

[OracleAdam]

I try to find value in every fight night. There might not be much but that's what I'm currently researching. Has anyone heard of Yan Cabral? Why has he gone 2 years without a fight, is that something to be concerned about? He's intriguing, he's 10-0 and every fight has ended in a submission in the first or 2nd round.

[rosietop]

he was in the recent TUF Brazil 2 but had to withdraw early because of injury, I guess you can call him a prospect, at this price range I would not bet on him and that fight to me is a pass altogether (might play the over since David Mitchell is a tough guy)

And at this price range I definitely see value on Santos. If its a close fight, its going to the Brazilian.

[OracleAdam]

he was in the recent TUF Brazil 2 but had to withdraw early because of injury, I guess you can call him a prospect, at this price range I would not bet on him and that fight to me is a pass altogether (might play the over since David Mitchell is a tough guy)

And at this price range I definitely see value on Santos. If its a close fight, its going to the Brazilian.

I think you might have found an answer to the puzzle. Every fight of Yan Cabral's has lasted less than 2 rounds (all cans anyways), so the linemaker put the o2.5 as the underdog at +135. However, Mitchell has never been submitted and has a few submissions of his own, so he might be able to defend the submissions. Mitchell has never KOed anyone, so he probably won't KO Cabral. The over could be the bet to make.

Now as far as the Brazilian judges being biased, I think that theory got disproven in the Machida/Davis fight. Most people, myself included, clearly think Machida won that fight, but the judges gave it to Davis and it was in Brazil. The question is, is Santos the better fighter?

[Sacrelicious]

Good lord, our new members just keep getting better and better...

[rosietop]

I think you might have found an answer to the puzzle. Every fight of Yan Cabral's has lasted less than 2 rounds (all cans anyways), so the linemaker put the o2.5 as the underdog at +135. However, Mitchell has never been submitted and has a few submissions of his own, so he might be able to defend the submissions. Mitchell has never KOed anyone, so he probably won't KO Cabral. The over could be the bet to make.

Now as far as the Brazilian judges being biased, I think that theory got disproven in the Machida/Davis fight. Most people, myself included, clearly think Machida won that fight, but the judges gave it to Davis and it was in Brazil. The question is, is Santos the better fighter?

"so the linemaker put the o2.5 as the underdog at +135"

????

you are obviously new to mma gambling if you speak like that. lol

That Machida Davis match is probably the ONLY exception to the rule and still then, Machida has also had a few controversial decisions go his way before. Look at the Rampage fight, Lyoto deserved to win that fight but the judges disagree. Its just Lyotos style he sits back too much.

I think Carasiao is the better standup fighter but as for overall mma fight I think this is a very close fight the fight being in Brazil I do like Santos here.

And like I said before David Mitchell fight over 2.5 at plus odds I definitely see some value there...

[mmaed]

The judges arent always from brazil. They are frequently brought in from other countries.

[rosietop]

The judges arent always from brazil. They are frequently brought in from other countries.

I already know bro. but the crowd does have a big affect on the Brazilian fighters thats undeniable. Thats the reason the odds are so lopsided, I guarantee you if Stun Gun Kim was fighitn Erick Silva in Korea odds would be different, but whats changed? just the place they happen to be fighting at...undeniable

[reigle9]

Sup nerds? I hate this card and have been way too sick to care about researching it. I thought I'd drop in here to possibly get some ideas, but shockingly it was just a bunch of inter-fighting. I guess I'll just skip it outside of Thiago parlays with football.

[mmaed]

I already know bro. but the crowd does have a big affect on the Brazilian fighters thats undeniable. Thats the reason the odds are so lopsided, I guarantee you if Stun Gun Kim was fighitn Erick Silva in Korea odds would be different, but whats changed? just the place they happen to be fighting at...undeniable

Its kind of hard to predict if the crowd is going to be able to do anything tangible for the fighter. Sure they can get him pumped up but its hard to say if that even helps. The best it can do in my opinion is make the fighter take training more seriously because he doesnt want to lose in front of his countrymen.

[mmaed]

Ya, we'll have to see if he tries it in his upcoming fight. He certainly wasn't successful vs Belcher with 5 or so perfect opportunities for a heel hook.

Just because he didnt tap out belcher with them it doesnt mean he hasnt been effective with them. Maia doesnt rear naked choke everyone he fights but we know hes good at it. Belcher is a pretty experienced fighter that isnt easy to tap. Besides that, palhares won a silver medal in adcc. If you go over his record there all he pretty much did was heel hook everyone. Those are top level guys that are there only to grapple. Its safe to say that palhares has a huge advantage on the ground versus just about everyone in his weight class, including mike pierce. If he can actually get him down he has an excellent shot at submitting him. Pierce is not easy to get down and will certainly be focusing hard on getting back up and avoiding the leglock.

[plekz]

Just because he didnt tap out belcher with them it doesnt mean he hasnt been effective with them. Maia doesnt rear naked choke everyone he fights but we know hes good at it. Belcher is a pretty experienced fighter that isnt easy to tap. Besides that, palhares won a silver medal in adcc. If you go over his record there all he pretty much did was heel hook everyone. Those are top level guys that are there only to grapple. Its safe to say that palhares has a huge advantage on the ground versus just about everyone in his weight class, including mike pierce. If he can actually get him down he has an excellent shot at submitting him. Pierce is not easy to get down and will certainly be focusing hard on getting back up and avoiding the leglock.

have you actually seen that ADCC though? Paul Harris did so much disgusting sh!t during that comp that if it wasn't for the ref being the biggest tool on earth he'd been disqualified in atleast two of the matches.

[mirinquads]

What did he do?

[The iron sheik]

http://www.mixedmartialarts.com/news/354062/Palhares-called-bi-polar-dirty-slap-happy-at-ADCC/

I'm kind of hoping Palhares wins. Just so that he doesn't get cut, the guy is a walking entertainment machine. Just about half of Palhares' fights are entertaining because he really seems to be severely retarded. If he breaks a leg after a tap, or pre-emptively celebrates or whatever he may be up to, I'm down with that.

[plekz]

mirin:

sheik linked it, on top of that he also used his fist to pound an opponent in the back of the head several times (something the ref also managed to miss)

but that out of bounds example above where he took almost 5 seconds after the ref called STOP to let go of the hook and kept cranking, and then they get fakkin reset in the middle of the mat with the hook again perfectly applied and locked...

basicly ref yells STOP both stop (dude stopped trying to defend) Paul Harris pauses for like half a second and then keeps pulling full force for another 4-5 seconds.

[mirinquads]

Dude is a barrel of monkeys, I hope they begin to feed him low level opposition he can mangle again soon

[mmaed]

have you actually seen that ADCC though? Paul Harris did so much disgusting sh!t during that comp that if it wasn't for the ref being the biggest tool on earth he'd been disqualified in atleast two of the matches.

I remember seeing a vid of him hurting someone with a heel hook. I can't say I like the guy. Supposedly he is not that intelligent but it's still hard to look the other way when hes messing peoples careers up with submission moves. He really does that too. Tearing ligaments puts people on the sidelines for a longtime.

[Vaughany]

the guy used to live under a bridge, has zero education, the troll in Three Billy Groats Gruff story is based on him!

[BIGDAY]

Maldonado was never a good boxer. Not in boxing, and not in MMA. He has almost no boxing skill whatsoever.

Assuncao has a lot of problems on the feet, but Dillashaw isn't the guy to expose him for them. Koch did a great job of it, although that was at 145. I think Dillashaw will be too young and athletic for Assuncao. He'll be considerably stronger, quicker, and he has better timing. The only time we've seen Dillashaw's timing look bad was in the Dodson fight, and Dodson would probably beat two Assuncao's at once. Definitely wouldn't take Assuncao here.

[reigle9]

Oh I'm glad you pointed out that post. That was the main other line I was looking at aside from Thiago. I had already taken Assuncao fake betting on here, but wanted to do it for real as well.

[Vaughany]

Probably play the Under 2.5 in Pierce/Paul Harris fight me thinks. Or Pierce TKO and Palhares Sub/SOTN

[reigle9]

Won't be sotn offered (at least on 5d).

[Vaughany]

ah yes tht is true

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

it is tough to take a shot on a flake like Palhars but what a difference 2 fights makes. Two fights ago he's -220 against Belcher now +240 in his first fight at welterweight.